11 december, 2018 20182201820182018202018 2018 … commodity waves stu... · 2019. 2. 15. ·...

1www.wavesstrategy.com Mob: +91 9920422202

[email protected] Tel: +91 22 28831358

Bottom-Line: Trend for Gold looks positive, for MCX Silver prices can move sideways to positive, Crude prices can move in range and Copper is at crucial juncture.

MCX Gold Continuous Daily chart:

Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com

Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

W

(III)

b

c

x

c

a

b

x

a

b

c

a

b

c

(b)

aaaaaaaaaaaaaa

(c)

(e)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(a)

(a)

(x)

Copyright, December 2018

Wavesstrategy Advisors

www.wavesstrategy.com

(a)

(b)

(c)

X

(4)

(g)

(c)

(d)

1

(a)

(b)

wave 3 is corrective as it is part of Ending Diagonal

c

2

(e)

(f)

(ii)

b

(i)

a

d

a

b

c

GOLD-1M - Daily 10-12-2018 Open 31647, Hi 32118, Lo 31530, Close 32028 (1.4%) EMA(Close,50) = 31,020.69

32,028

31,020.7

Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

30

70

GOLD-1M - RSI(14) = 69.56

69.5575

11 December, 2018 201822018201820182020182018 202012012018

The Commodity Waves Short term Update – December 11, 2018



MCX Gold Feb 60 min chart:

17

2018

22 29 5

November

12 19 26 3

December

10

50

Relative Strength Index (78.8217)

30000

30100

30200

30300

30400

30500

30600

30700

30800

30900

31000

31100

31200

31300

31400

31500

31600

31700

31800

31900

32000

32100

32200

32300

32400

32500

32600

32700

d

(g)

(f)

(e)

(a)

(b)


Waves Strategy Advisors


(c)

(d)

x

z

y

(g)

(f)

(e)

(c)

(d)

(a)

(b)

x

(a)

(b)

M_GOLD-FEB (32,052.00, 32,054.00, 32,000.00, 32,041.00, -16.00)

Wave analysis: In previous update of MCX Gold we mentioned that, “Trend for Gold remains positive and one should wait for the break of 31570 on the upside to capture a move towards 31700 levels.” Prices moved in similar manner made a high near 32110. On daily chart of MCX Gold we can see that sharp rise was witnessed from the lows of 30300 levels. Wave e of Diametric is ongoing. From past 4 consecutive session prices are closing above the high indicating further buying can be witnessed. Also t has now arrived near crucial resistance trendline and break above this trendline on closing basis can further extend the rally on upside. As shown on hourly chart, wave (c) is ongoing on upside. We can expect some sideways action in today’s session which will help relieve the RSI indicator from its resistance zone. Further break above the high of 32110 can take the prices towards 32250 levels.

In short, trend for Gold remains positive and one should wait for the break of 32110 on the upside to initiate fresh long whereas for existing long an important support is placed near 31570.




MCX Silver continuous daily chart:


34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

(x)

(f)

(g)

(b)

(c)

(a)

(a)

(d)

(c)

(b)

(a)

(b)

(c)




(e)

(b)

(c)

(x)

(x)

(a)

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

A

(e)

(g)

(f)(x)

a

g

b

d

e

f

c

b

(a)

0.0%

61.8% 38224.17

76.4% 39022.99

100.0%

SILVER-1M - Daily 10-12-2018 Open 37907, Hi 38480, Lo 37700, Close 38369 (1.0%) EMA(Close,20) = 36,903.79

38,369

36,903.8

2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

30

70SILVER-1M - RSI(14) = 62.61

62.6054




Silver Mar 60 mins chart:

17 22

2018

29 5

November

12 19 26 3

December

1010

20

30

40

50

60

70Relative Strength Index (70.8427)

36000

36500

37000

37500

38000

38500

39000

39500

40000

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

100.0%

161.8%

261.8%

f

e

g

d

c

b

a

b

c

a

(a)




b

M_SILVER-MAR (38,430.00, 38,434.00, 38,332.00, 38,337.00, -103.000)

Wave analysis: In previous update for Silver we mentioned,” In short trend for Silver remains sideways to positive and dips towards 37800 can be used as a buying opportunity for a move towards 38100 as long as 37500 remains intact on the downside.” Prices moved as expected and made a high near 38480 levels. As shown on the daily chart, prices closing above prior bars high since past two sessions and have made higher high higher low formation so as long as we do not see a close below the prior bars low the trend remains positive. This is simple yet an effective method to stay with the ongoing trend. As shown on hourly chart, prices are moving as expected in line with our expectation and wave c of Zig-Zag Pattern looks to be ongoing. Prices have shown 100% projection of wave a. We can expect some sideways action to take place due to rise in the previous session. Prices are moving within upward sloping blue channel and are arriving towards the resistance trendline. A break above 38480 will resume the up move taking prices higher towards 38700 levels as long as 38000 remain intact on the downside. In short trend for Silver remains sideways to positive and a break above 38480 can take prices higher towards 38700 levels as long as 38000 remains intact on the downside.




MCX Crude daily chart:


Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

B

C

X

A

B

AAAAAA

(f)

b

a

Diametric Pattern

c

a

c

b

(v)

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

(v)

(a)

(b)

(c)

(c)

(x)

(a)

(b)

(a)




(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

(g)

(a)

(b)

(b)

(c)

(d)

x

(g)

a

b

e

a

c

c c

d

(e)

a

b b

(f)

(c)

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

0.0%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

100.0%

CRUDEOIL-1M - Daily 10-12-2018 Open 3808, Hi 3808, Lo 3696, Close 3766 (-2.2%) EMA(Close,20) =

3,766

3,896.75

Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

30

70

CRUDEOIL-1M - RSI(14) = 39.63

39.6302




MCX Crude Dec 60 min chart:

17 22

2018

29 5

November

12 19 26 3

December

10

20

30

40

50

60


33503400

3450

3500

35503600

3650

37003750

3800

3850

39003950

4000

4050

41004150

4200

4250

43004350

4400

44504500

4550

4600

46504700

4750

4800

48504900

4950

5000

50505100

5150

52005250

e




f

g

x

ab

c

d

e

f

g

M_CRUDEOIL-DEC (3,749.00, 3,776.00, 3,746.00, 3,757.00, +8.00)

Wave analysis: NYMEX Crude from past 13 sessions is moving in a broader range between 54.82 and 49.41 levels. It is best to wait for prices to break this range on either to get a clear view of trend. As shown on hourly chart, wave g of Diametric pattern is completed on downside and wave x is currently ongoing. In the Monday’s session Crude had a negative opening and later trade within range between 3790 and 3690 levels. Now Break of this range on either side will derive its short term trend. On upside if prices breaks above 3790 levels rally can continue towards 3860 levels whereas on downside break below 3690 will infuse selling pressure towards lower levels near 3580. In short, Crude is range bound. One should wait for prices to break above mentioned pivot levels i.e. 3790 and 3690 on either side to confirm the direction of trend and execute trade in respective direction.




MCX Copper Daily chart:


Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

390

400

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

(c)

(Y)

(x)

(d)

(b)

(a)

(e)

(c)

3

(X)

(a)

(iii)

(a)

(b)

(c)

(x)

(a)

(b)

(W)

(b)

(iv)

(c)

yw

cv

xy

b




g

i

ii

iii

d

e

f

a

a

b

x

c

a

b

a

a

b

x

c

i of

c

w

x

c

iv

COPPER-1M - Daily 10-12-2018 Open 436.6, Hi 444.35, Lo 434.3, Close 440.55 (0.5%) EMA(Close,25)

440.55

436.493

Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct

30

70

COPPER-1M - RSI(14) = 53.00

52.9963




MCX Copper Nov60 mins chart:

17 22

2018

29 5

November

12 19 26 3

December

10

30

40

50

60


425426427428429430431432433434435436437438439440441442443444445446447448449450451452453454455456457458459460461462463464465466467468469470

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

76.4%

100.0%

v

b

c

x

a




a c

b

x

M_COPPER-FEB (442.50, 442.50, 441.50, 441.60, +0.95)

Waves Analysis: In the previous report we mentioned, “Copper looks sideways to short term positive. Prices can move towards 442-444 levels as long as we see 432 intact on the downside.” BANG ON! Prices moved exactly as expected and made a high near 444.36 levels. As shown on the hourly chart, prices have retraced exactly 76.4% of wave (a) move in form of wave (b). Complex correction pattern is ongoing and prices are moving in an overlapping manner from past few trading session. As of now one should keep a close watch on 444.50 on upside and 438 on downside break of these levels will drive trend in that direction.

In short, copper is at crucial juncture. One should wait for break of the levels mentioned to initiate any fresh trade.




Services offered by Waves Strategy Advisors:

Stay ahead at major turning points and think objectively by Subscribing to our Services:

Equity / Commodity / Currency research reports that are published on daily basis before

market opens

Intraday / Positional advisory on Equity and Commodity

Research report and advisory on Currency pairs

Global Market forecasting

Research on Mutual Funds - Where to Invest NOW?

Research on COMEX and LME markets

Research on NCDEX Agri products

We also provide:

Outsourcing Research solutions

Portfolio advisory services

Conduct Educational seminars, Class room training, and Distance learning modules.

Disclosures:

Waves Strategy Advisors (“Firm”) is SEBI registered as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Registration number: INH000001097. The Firm, its partners, employees, and associates have not been debarred/

suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

The Firm, its partners, employees, and associates including the relatives of the Partners,

do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the company subject to research analysis (“Subject

Company”);

do not have any material conflict of interest with the Subject Company;

has not received any compensation or monetary benefit of any nature from the Subject Companyduring the past twelve months;

has not served as a client, employee, director or officer of the Subject Company;

has not been engaged in any market making activity for the Subject Company

has not received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any

investment decision. The Firm does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any

trading or investment decision. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deemed necessary to

arrive at an independent evaluation of an trading / investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an

investment.

The Firm, its affiliates, directors, partners its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions. The views contained in this document are those of the Firm and the research analyst engaged in preparing

the research report, and the client may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within and the client has the right and option to not follow or put reliance on recommendations they are not agreeable to.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a

company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable

sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Waves Strategy Advisors or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way

responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this

report. Waves Strategy Advisors has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within

this document.

While Waves Strategy Advisors endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may

be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,

redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

11 december, 2018 20182201820182018202018 2018 … commodity waves stu... · 2019. 2. 15. ·...

Documents