11 Dupont Circle, NW Ninth Floor Washington, DC 20036 Tel 202.223.5956 Fax 202.238.9604

“Taking pragmatic steps toward ideal objectives.”

The Chemical & Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project

Amy E. Smithson, PhD

Public Perception of the Threat

10

22

57

62

65

66

66

70

0 20 40 60 80

Russia

China

Nuclear Weapons/Terrorism

Iraq/Saddam Hussein

al Qaeda

Biological Weapons/Terrorism

Chemical Weapons/Terrorism

Osama Bin Laden

Source: The Nuclear Threat Initiative, Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, INC & Public Opinion Strategies

Unconventional Terrorism: 1975-2002

72% of domestic activities = plots, pranks, non-credible hoaxes

50% of 145 use cases = low-end substances or Aum Shinrikyo

All aerosol/spray attempts = Aum Shinrikyo

19 = largest death toll

Over 95% = 3 or fewer killed, injured

Over 60% = no injuries

Stepnogorsk

Akademgorodok1

Ufa

1

3 Novosibirsk

Almaty

Pushchino

Voronezh

Kirov

St. Petersburg

Moscow

1

9

1

3

2

ARMENIA

Koltsovo

Sergiev Posad

PokrovBogoroditsk

Berezniki

Chernogolovka 2

1

1

1

1

1 Seversk

Lybuchany

Novocheboksarsk1

1

Shikhany

4

1

1

1

Uzhgorod

1

= Biological weapons storage facilities

= Chemical weapons storage facilities

= Biological weapons production facilities

= Chemical weapons production facilities

= Biological weapons research facilities

= Biological weapons testing grounds

= Biological weapons reserve mobilization facilities (To be activated in time of war)

LEGEND

1

36

2

Obolensk

Chapaevsk

Gorny

Pochep

Leonidovka

Kizner

Kambarka

Maradykovsky

Shchuch’ye

2

1

Reutov

1

Vladimir

1

21

Golitsino

2

2 1

Nizhniy NovgorodStrizhi1 1

Omutninsk1 1

1 1

KurganPenza

1

Vozrozhdeniye Island

Aralsk

1

1

Otar 4

1

Berdsk11

5

Nukus

= Chemical weapons research facilities

= Chemical weapons testing grounds

1

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

3

5

Dzerzhinsk

Zheleznogorsk

1

Abovian 2AZERBAIJAN

Note: Some sites in Russia are not listed due to map constraints. 1 chemical weapons research facility in Angarsk; 1 biological weapons research facility and 1 chemical weapons research facility in Irkutsk; 2 biological weapons research facilities in Vladivostok; 1 biological weapons storage facility in Zima.

Sources: International Science and Technology Center; Science and Technology Center; Ken Alibek, Biohazard (New York: Random House, 1999); S. Utkina, A. Gorbovsky, A. Zhuchkov, “Russian Views on Conversion of Former Chemical Weapons Production Facilities,” OPCW Synthesis, Issue 5 (The Hague, Netherlands: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, November/December 1999).

1Oziorsk

8

3

5

7

1

TAJIKISTAN

Volgograd

KAZAKHSTAN

GEORGIA

Weapons Expertise, Materials Shortcut

Nature’s 20th Century Death Tolls

> 1 million deaths

500,000 - 1 million

100,000 - 500,000

50,000 - 100,000

10,000 - 50,000

approx 3,000

Influenza Typhus Plague

Cholera Influenza Flood

Smallpox Drought

Earthquake Meningitis

Spanish Flu

Cyclone Plague Cholera

Landslide Yellow Fever

Volcano

Measles Meningitis Smallpox Arbovirus

Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

Source: The 600K Report: Commercial Chemical Incidents in the United States 1987–1996 , Special Congressional Summary (Washington, DC: US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, 24 February 1999).

Industrial Chemicals Shortcut: US Chemical Incidents by County 1987-1996

US Government: 23 January 2003

Federal Government

White House

Policy Coordinating Committees

Central Intelligence Agency

Dept. of Agriculture

Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service

Food Safety and Inspection Service

Food Threat Preparedness Network (PrepNet)

Food Biosecurity Action Team (F-BAT)

Emergency Response Team

USDA Homeland Security Council

Dept. of Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Scientific and Technical Research and Services

Dept. of Defense

Office of the Secretary of Defense

U.S. Joint Forces Command

Joint Service Chemical Biological Information System (JSCBIS)

U.S. Northern Command

U.S. Joint Task Force-Civil Support

U.S. Army

U.S. Army Soldier and Biological Chemical Command

U.S. Army Chemical School

U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense

U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases

U.S. Army Reserve Chemical Companies

U.S. Army 52nd Explosive Ordnance Disposal Units

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

U.S. Army Edgewood Chemical and Biological Center

U.S. Army Technical Escort Unit

U.S. Army Chemical and Biological Rapid Response Team

U.S. Army Chemical and Biological Information Analysis Center

Center for Army Lessons Learned

Directorate of Military Support

National Guard

U.S. Marine Corps

Chemical and Biological Incident Response Force

Combat Development Tracking System

U.S. Air Force

Center for Knowledge Sharing Lessons Learned

U.S. Navy

Joint Center for Lessons Learned

Defense Agencies

Defense Threat Reduction Agency

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

Dept. of Energy

Office of Emergency Operations

Dept. of Health and Human Services

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Office of Public Health Preparedness

Office of Public Health and Science

Office of Emergency Response

Food and Drug Administration

Health Resource and Services Administrations

Laboratory Response Network Dept. of

Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Hazardous Materials Response Unit

Joint Terrorism Task Forces

Anti-terrorism Assistance program

Center for Anti-terrorism and Security Training

Emergency Response Fund

National Instituteof Justice

Dept. of Labor

Occupational Safety and Health Administration

Dept. of Transportation

Office of Emergency Transportation

National Response Center

Research and Special Programs Administration

NTSB

FAA

Dept. of the Treasury

ATF

Dept. of Veterans Affairs

Environmental Protection Agency

Chemical Emergency Preparedness and Prevention Office Office of Emergency

and Remedial Response (OERR)

Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (ORIA)

National Enforcement Investigations Center (NEIC)

Environmental Response Teams

National Guard

National Nuclear Safety Administration

Office of National Laboratories

FEMA

National Preparedness Office

US Fire Administration

National Fire Academy

National Security Affairs

Preparedness, Training & Exercises Director

Office of Emergency Preparedness

Eastern U.S. National Medical Response Team (North Carolina)

Central U.S. National Medical Response Team (Colorado)

Western U.S. National Medical Response Team (California)

National Disaster Medical System

Disaster Medical Assistance Teams

Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team

Veterinarian Medical Assistance Team

Domestic Emergency Support Teams

Metropolitan Medical Response System

National Domestic Preparedness Office

Strategic National Stockpile

Livermore Nat Lab's Computing Research and Intelligence Program

Plum Island Animal Disease Center

Agricultural Research Service

Federal Law Enforcement Training Center

US Customs Service

Office of Domestic Preparedness

Transportation Security Administration

National Infrastructure Protection Center

Secret Service

Environmental Measurements Laboratory

Immigation and Naturalization Service

General Services Administration

Federal Protective Service

National Communications System

Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office

Energy Security and Assurance Program

National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center

Federal Computer Incident Response Center

Coast Guard

US Government: 24 January 2003

Federal Government

White House

Policy Coordinating Committees

Central Intelligence Agency

Dept. of Agriculture

Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service

Food Safety and Inspection Service

Food Threat Preparedness Network (PrepNet)

Food Biosecurity Action Team (F-BAT)

Emergency Response Team

USDA Homeland Security Council Dept. of

Commerce

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Scientific and Technical Research and Services

Dept. of Defense

Office of the Secretary of Defense

U.S. Joint Forces Command

Joint Service Chemical Biological Information System (JSCBIS)

U.S. Northern Command

U.S. Joint Task Force-Civil Support

U.S. Army

U.S. Army Soldier and Biological Chemical Command

U.S. Army Chemical School

U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense

U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases

U.S. Army Reserve Chemical Companies

U.S. Army 52nd Explosive Ordnance Disposal Units

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

U.S. Army Edgewood Chemical and Biological Center

U.S. Army Technical Escort Unit

U.S. Army Chemical and Biological Rapid Response Team

U.S. Army Chemical and Biological Information Analysis Center

Center for Army Lessons Learned

Directorate of Military Support

National Guard

U.S. Marine Corps

Chemical and Biological Incident Response Force

Combat Development Tracking System

U.S. Air Force

Center for Knowledge Sharing Lessons Learned

U.S. Navy

Joint Center for Lessons Learned

Defense Agencies

Defense Threat Reduction Agency

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

Dept. of Energy

Office of Emergency Operations

Dept. of Health and Human Services

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Office of Public Health Preparedness

Office of Public Health and Science

Office of Emergency Response

Food and Drug Administration

Health Resource and Services Administrations

Laboratory Response Network

Dept. of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Hazardous Materials Response Unit

Joint Terrorism Task Forces

Anti-terrorism Assistance program

Center for Anti-terrorism and Security Training

Emergency Response Fund

National Instituteof Justice

Dept. of Labor

Occupational Safety and Health Administration

Dept. of Transportation

Office of Emergency Transportation

National Response Center

Research and Special Programs Administration

NTSB

FAA

Dept. of the Treasury

ATF

Dept. of Veterans Affairs

Environmental Protection Agency

Chemical Emergency Preparedness and Prevention Office

Office of Emergency and Remedial Response (OERR)

Office of Radiation and Indoor Air (ORIA)

National Enforcement Investigations Center (NEIC)

Environmental Response Teams

National Guard

Department of Homeland Security

Homeland Security Council

Inspector General

Emergency Preparedness and Response

Science and Technology

Border and Transportation Security

Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection

FEMA

Office of Emergency Preparedness

National Disaster Medical System

Metropolitan Medical Response System

Strategic National Stockpile

Domestic Emergency Support Teams

Integrated Hazard Information System

National Domestic Preparedness Office

Homeland Security Institute

Homeland Security Science and Technology Advisory Committee

Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency

Livermore Nat Lab's Computing Research and Intelligence ProgramPlum Island

Animal Disease Center

Environmental Measurements Laboratory

National Bio-Weapons Defense Analysis Center

Bureau of Border Security

Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Services

Transportation Security Administration

Federal Protective Service

Federal Law Enforcement Training Center

Office of Domestic Preparedness

National Infrastructure Protection Center

National Communications System

Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office

Energy Security and Assurance Program

Federal Computer Incident Response Center

Office of the Secretary

Office of State and Local Coordination

Disaster Medical Assistance Teams

Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team

Veterinarian Medical Assistance Team

Eastern U.S. National Medical Response Team (North Carolina)

Central U.S. National Medical Response Team (Colorado)

Western U.S. National Medical Response Team (California)

National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center

Office for National Laboratories

Office of International Affairs

Office for National Capital Region Coordination

Secret Service

Coast Guard

Office of Science& Technology

US Customs Service

Congressional Oversight:Before. . . and After

Senate

Armed Services

Foreign Relations

Commerce, Science and

Transportation

Appropriations

Governmental Affairs

Intelligence

Energy and National

Resources

Health, Education, Labor and Pensions

Judiciary

Environment and Public

Works

International Security,

Proliferation and Federal

Services

Oceans, Atmospheres & Fisheries

Surface Transportation

Science, Technology

& Space

Public Health

Administrative Oversight & the Courts

Emerging Threats and Capabilities

Immigration

Technology, Terrorism & Government Information

Constitution, Federalism &

Property Rights

House of RepresentativesAgriculture

International Relations

Government Reform

Budget

Energy & CommerceIntelligence

JudiciaryTransportation

& Infrastructure

Veterans Affairs

Science

Select Committee on Homeland

Security

Crime

Oversight and Investigations

Terrorism & Homeland Security

Government Efficiency, Financial Management and

Intergovernmental Relations

Technology Procurement and

Public Policy

National Security, Veterans Affairs &

International Relations

Aviation

Water Resources & Environment

Coast Guard & Maritime

Transportation

Oversight & Investigations

Unconventional Terrorism Preparation and Response

($664 million)

Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

($1.7 billion)

Defense Against Terrorism ($9.7 billion)

Assistance to First Responders ($311 million)

FY2001 Federal Counter-Terrorism Budget

FY2001 Federal $ to States, Locals

Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism: Preparedness and ResponseTotal: $663.5 million

Vaccines & Therapeutics Stockpile

8%

1st Responder Equipment17%

State and Local Planning & Assistance

4%

Special Response Units20%

Federal Planning & Exercises2%

Other1%

1st Responder Training and Excercises

34%

Public Health Infrastructure & Surveillance

14%

Medical Responder Training and Excercises

0.3%

FY2002 Federal Counter-Terrorism Budget

Unconventional Terrorism Preparation and Response

$1.6 billion (+ $4.9 billion**)

Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

$3.3 billion (+ $4.5 billion**)

Defense Against Terrorism $24.2 billion (+ $12.2 billion**)

Assistance to First Responders $500 million (+ $783 million**)

**Emergency supplemental appropriations after 11 September 2001

Preparedness Instead of Rhetoric, Pork

Step-by-step, not whole sale reorganization

Emphasize front-line preparedness– Institutionalize training– Share lessons experienced, exemplary

practices

Create formula to sustain preparedness

Candidate Exemplary Practices

Automatic hospital alerts

Overcoming the hospital decontamination bottleneck:– Enhanced hospital capacity– Partnering mutual aid fire companies

with hospitals

Drive-through prophylaxis

Pharmaceutical “bubbles”/Shelf Life Extension Program

Candidate Exemplary Practices

Early warning syndrome surveillance:– 911 calls– Over-the-counter drug sales– Sentinel hospitals, nursing homes,

laboratories, veterinarians– HMO call-in centers– School absenteeism– Public safety, transport personnel

absenteeism

Candidate Exemplary Practices

Regional Hospital Planning: – Burden-sharing– Emergency supplies– Integration of state, federal assets– Command, control, and

communications– Off-site care facilities– Personnel reservoirs– Security– Casualty management– Public information

Helping Citizens Cope

Dispel the myths

Explain relative risks:– Car accidents = 43,000+– Lightning = 60+– Bathtub = 330+

What citizens can “do”

Government = has plans, capabilities