110 third annual arab forum 101 101101110110110110011011010011010110101001101011 1011001 statistical...

110 Third Annual Arab Forum 1011011011101101101100110110100110101101010011010111011001 Statistical information for Policy Makers 00010101

1000110110 A Perspective for the XXI Century 1011011

10110110110111011011011 Fabio Scacciavillani 101101110110111011011 Director of Economic Research 1011011

0110 19 April 2007 110

GOIC’s focus

Since 1976 we design policies fostering the diversification of the GCC economies into non energy sectors

10010101011 Yemen Meeting on Measuring Progress - April 19 010101001001

Key Messages• Information requirements depend

crucially on policy priorities• Source of information must be an

independent authority• Timeliness and frequency• Consistency• International comparability• Best practices

Traditional Objectives • Basic measurement of welfare

– GDP– Public finances– Savings and distribution of wealth– Inflation, wages and unemployment– Balance of payments– Health, education and culture– Housing– Crime and justice– Transports and other public services


Emphasis on qualitative elements

• Enforcement of contracts and property rights• Research and development• Environmental protection• Gender Inequality • Information society preparedness • Human capital depletion• Capacity of innovation• Working conditions => matching of functions and skills• Quality of corporate governance• Financial markets development


Policy makers’ quant. objectives• Economic growth

– Better data on private sector– Better data on services sector, in particular on import

and export• Wages and labor conditions• Cost of living• Financial sector statistics

– Monetary transmission mechanism– Microstructure of the markets– Access to credit– Stock market capitalization


Policy makers’ qualit. objectives• Business and regulatory environment

– Rules rather than discretion– Time to open a business– Number of permissions– Taxation burden– One stop full stop interface with the public– Extent of automatic or on line procedures– Cooperation between government entities– Conflicting rules


Objectives must translate into measurable targets

• Poverty eradication => 1 $ a day (WB)

• Education => reading and math test scores

• Health => mortality and illness data

• Access to credit => # of loans and defaults

• Information society => # of internet connections

• Business climate => days to open a business


Timeliness

• Old data cannot be used to guide policy

• Better to have preliminary figures asap than to wait the last bit of information

• Better to be transparent on the shortcoming when disseminating preliminary data

• Better to admit mistakes than to put the rug under the carpet


Consistency

• Different sources must point to comparable figures. Otherwise a reconciliation must be provided

• Definitions must be clear and accessible

• Surveys must be conducted using comparable methodologies

• Samples must be chosen carefully

• Staff must be trained rigorously


International Comparability

• Translates into accountability

• Fosters the adoption of best practices

• Promotes the exchange of view among policy makers

• Tool for exerting peer pressure


A few Ideas

• Electricity consumption by factories

• Container traffic

• Minutes of phone calls from abroad to business users

• Arrivals at the airport and hotel nights

• Loans to business clients


Best Practices

• International institutions must take an active role as auditors of the national statistics

• When data are not reliable a solution must be devised

• Targets for timeliness and accuracy must be defined more stringently

• Revisions of data must be explained candidly


Situation in the Arab World


Concluding remarks

• The need for better statistical information is unquestionable

• Not always policy makers welcome data availability

• Major efforts in terms of resources and planning

• The picture in Arab countries is mixed


001010101010101001010011010111011010 Gulf Organization for

Industrial Consulting 1011 101011001000110100110101

011101101001100110 010 0101010001101010111001001001111 FABIO SCACCIAVILLANI

001010000100110110110100 010 www.goic.org.qa 01 0110101

01 [email protected] 110001011

mailto:[email protected]

110 third annual arab forum 101 101101110110110110011011010011010110101001101011 1011001 statistical...

Documents

measuring progress

policy makers qualit

statistical information

timelinessold data

preliminary figures

comparable figures

private sectorbetter

services sector