1.10 water resource management challenges and perspectives (p.fröhle)

Water resource management challenges and

perspectives: the research and the municipal point of

view with a focus on Hamburg

Gabriele Gönnert

Hamburg Administration of Streets, Bridges and Waters

Peter Fröhle

Hamburg University of Technology

Water resource management challenges and

perspectives: the research and the municipal point of

view with a focus on Hamburg

Peter Fröhle

Institute of River and Coastal Engineering

Hamburg University of Technology

Elbe Estuary Overview

High precipitation

Discharge

- Length 142 km: Cuxhaven

to the weir in Geesthacht

- Width: 500 m to 17 km

- tributaries

- Consistent dike line

- Mean tidel range - Cuxhaven 3,0 m - St. Pauli 3,6 m - Hamburg to

Geesthacht 2,0 m

Hydrological System of a low lying area

Influence of Human Interventions:

Development of tidal range in Hamburg (Gauge St. Pauli)

27.03.2015 Institut für Wasserbau 4

Strotmann & Fickert 2007

Challenges

• Wide low lying and flood prone areas

• Stormwater and Coastal Flooding

• Highly dynamic system

• Highly anthropogenic influenced system

• Climate Change will have negative effects on pluvial and fluvial floods

• Responsibilities lay at the federal state level (Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg)


Hazards and Risk – technical aspects

• Hazards: – North Sea / Elbe Storm Events

– Rainfall and pluvial flooding

– Drainage of the hinterland

– Effects of human interventions

– Climate change related effects

– Natural variation and developments

• Risk – Hazards and hazard analyses

• Determination of probabilities and joint probabilities of loads

– Reliability analysis • Determination of reliability of constructions

– Hydrodynamic analysis • Consequences of failure, flooding of areas

– Consequences • Damage potential and damages

– Communication and public awareness


Hazards and Risk – technical aspects




– Effects of human interventions,



• Risk – Hazards and hazard analyses







• Statistical analyses of storm events

Processes – Risk Analysis

=

+

Storm surge = astronomical tide + wind set-up

Processes

• Parametrization of measured wind set-up

Parameters: i) maximum water level ii) fullness of set-up event iii) course of set-up event

Processes

Bi-variate statistical

analyses of

parameters using

Copula - functions

Set of events with

identic probability /

average return period

Processes

Bi-variate statistical

analyses of

parameters using

Copula - functions

Set of events for given

period as basis for

Monte-Carlo-Simulations

Processes

Determination

of storm events

Course of set-up

statistically independent

427

Processes

• Automated storm surge

generator

Elbe Estuary Overview

High precipitation

Discharge

- Length 142 km: Cuxhaven

to the weir in Geesthacht

- Width: 500 m to 17 km

- tributaries

- Consistent dike line

- Mean tidel range - Cuxhaven 3,0 m - St. Pauli 3,6 m - Hamburg to

Geesthacht 2,0 m

Hydrological System of a low lying area

Ongoing Research

• PEARL – Preparing for extreme and rare events in Coastal Areas (holistic approach – multiple risks)

– Case study Hamburg / Elbe

• Elbe Estuary Model – Operational model of the Elbe Estuary

» Online nowcast and forecast based on a combination of measurements, statistical and numerical methods

» Implementation of “official” water level forecast into the model

» Integration of dike failure and real time mesh generation

» …

– Risk analysis

» Statistical classification of storm surges and dike failure

» Influence of parallel precipitation events

» Expectation of damages and losses for defined areas

» Evacuation

» Effectiveness of adaptation measure

» …

– Input in other WPs (wave modelling and climate change related effects) and for other case studies (Rethimno – Sediment Transport and Coastal Protection )


Elbe Estuary Model

• Model set up with KalypsoTelemac

• Telemac 2D

• Implementation of MOS-Prediction

• Breaching process of protection measures

• Flooding of the hinterland

• Damage assessment

• Measures to minimize risks

Water level boundary

Discharge boundary

Elbe Estuary Model

• Implementation of BSH - MOS-Prediction (Model Output Statistics)

• 9 Gauges along Elbe Estuary: • Cuxhaven

• Brunsbüttel

• Brokdorf

• Glückstadt

• Stadersand

• Schulau

• Hamburg, St.Pauli

• Zollenspieker

• Geesthacht

Web-View: MOS-water level prediction of Cuxhaven

Ongoing Projects

• StucK – Stormwater management of coastal urban areas (Hamburg)

under the influence of climate change – LSBG

– High temporal and spatial measurement and forecast of precipitation with

high intensity or high volume

– Implementation of rainfall-run-off model and management of centralized

and de-centralized storages and drainage elements

– Acutal and future management of extreme situations and influence of

different water levels influenced by tides, storm events and climate

change

– Interdependencies between flood protection and ecology

– Application of results to selected urban project areas => Dove-Elbe and

Kollau

– Economic analysis

– Dissemination


Planned projects

• Life-cycle management of hydraulic engineering and water management constructions

– Actual and future design conditions

• Climate change

• Safety requirements

• Public requirements

• …

– Influence of maintennance

• Probabilistic approach of maitennance works

– Optimization of investment planning of flood protection and water management constructions

• Date of rehabilitation / investment

• Scale of rehabilitation / investment

• Statistical / probabilistic assessment


Open questions




– Effects of human interventions,



• Risk – Hazards and hazard analysis







Development of

Solutions

Understanding and

Generation /

Dissemination of

Knowledge

Assessment,

Communication

and

Minimization of

Conflicts

Common Problem:

Adaptation to Climate

Change

KLEE

Learn and Action Alliances: Idea and Approach

Adaptation Measures Participation of stakeholders

• Less water in the river

– Retention of water in the upper catchment (Geest)

• Centralized solutions

• De-centralized solutions

– Retention of water in the lower catchment (Marsch)

• Centralized solutions

• De-centralized solutions

• More space for the water

– In front of the dike

• Deepening of the floodplains

• Regulation with the Barrier

– Behind the dike

• Overflow – polder and water management

• Storage in centralized polders

Adaptation measures

25

Adaptation to Climate Change

• Moderator: Prof. Reincke (Hochschule 21 Buxtehude)

• Gemeinden, Städte und Landkreise

• Nds. Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft, Küsten und Naturschutz (NLWKN), Behörde für Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt

HH (BSU)

• Landwirtschaftskammer Niedersachsen (LWK)

• Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt Hamburg, Hamburg Port Authority

• Deichverband Altes Land, Unterhaltungsverband Altes Land, Unterhaltungs- und Landschaftspflegeverband Este

• NGOs (BI Este, BUND, Naturschutzbund Deutschland, Angler- und Naturschutzgemeinschaft, …)

• Privatpersonen (Landwirte, Anwohner…)

Learn and Action Alliances: Participants

Adaptation Measures Stakeholder Involvement

Lern- und Action Alliances: Structure

Anschauungs-beispiel

Lern-Teil Impulsvortrag

Aktions-Teil Workshop

LAA 1

Anpassungsmaßnahmen Einbeziehung der Akteure

Example

Learning

Presentations

Action

Workshops

Lern- und Aktionsallianzen:

Ablauf der Veranstaltungen

Exkursion Exkursion

Vorstellung möglicher

Maßnahmen

Impulsvorträge: Landwirtschaft,

Naturschutz, Unterhaltungsver-bände, Finanzier-ungs- und Förder-

möglichkeiten

Hydraulische Wirksamkeit, Maßnahmen-Priorisierung

Vorläufiger Maßnahmen-

katalog

Erarbeiten von konkreten

Maßnahmen-vorschlägen

Einschätzung der Maßnahmen hinsichtlich

ausgewählter Kriterien

Diskussion der Priorisierung

sämtlicher Maßnahmen

Diskussion vorläufiger

Maßnahmen-katalog

Gemeinsam erarbeiteter

Maßnahmen-katalog

LAA 1 LAAs 2+3 LAA 5 Projektabschlu

ss

KLEE-Partner Alle Teilnehmer

LAA 4

Gastvorträge

Series of Learn- and Action Alliances => Assessment and

Acceptance of Adaptation Measures

Anpassungsmaßnahmen Einbeziehung der Akteure

• Klimzug – Nord

– Organized by the research project / research institutions

– Goals

• Involvement of administrative sector in the research project

• Dissemination of results in the project and the administrative sector

• Discussion of research results with adminstrative sector

• Awareness of the administrative sector

• KLEE

– Inititated by the administrative body / water management board

– Goals

• Involvement of all adminstrative bodies into the development and assessment of measures

• Involvement of public into the development and assessment of measures

• Acceptance of solution

29

Development of LAA over Time and Projects

Thank you very much!


1.10 water resource management challenges and perspectives (p.fröhle)

Environment

hamburg gauge

developments risk hazards

institut fr wasserbau

risk technical aspects

coastal flooding

pluvial flooding drainage

negative effects

course of setup event