12 to 15 september iumi 2010 zurich 12 – 15 september shipping and global trade: a review of major...
TRANSCRIPT
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
IUMI 2010 ZURICH
12 – 15 September
Shipping and global trade:
A review of major developments
Hassiba BenamaraUNCTAD
212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
CONTENTS
I. Macro factors
Economic growth and merchandise trade
II. Shipping and seaborne trade
Demand: seaborne trade
Supply: fleet developments
Freight rates
III.Emerging challenges and some relevant issues to monitor
Environment
Energy
Other
412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
UNCTAD and WTO, 2010
The first and deepest contraction (-1.9%)…
… in global output since the 1930s
World GDP (real), 1971-2010World GDP (real), 1971-2010
512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Broad-based and varied speed
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
United States
EU
Japan
India
China
South Africa
Brazil
RussianFederation
World GDP (% annual growth), 2004-2010World GDP (% annual growth), 2004-2010
UNCTAD, 2010
612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
The “Great Trade Collapse”
GDP
Exports
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1971 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
2010
per cent annual growth
World GDP and trade (real), 1971-2010World GDP and trade (real), 1971-2010
UNCTAD and WTO, 2010
712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Adverse trade shocks across regions
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
WO RL D
N orth A merica
Europ ean Un ion (27)
D eve lop ed As ia (Japan & Israel )
Africa
D eve lop ing Am erica
D eve lop ing As ia
Western As ia
C hin a
Trans itio n Eco nom ies
Im po rts
Exports
UNCTAD , 2010
World merchandise trade (real), 2009World merchandise trade (real), 2009
812 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
An unprecedented trade contraction
Merchandise exports dropped about 7 times more rapidly than global GDP (elasticity ≈ 2 in 60s and 70s and 3.4 in 90s). UNCTAD estimate for 1971-2010 ≈ 2.5.
Demand shock and synchronized drop.
Multiplier effect: Product composition of the fall in demand (e.g.
consumer goods and durables, higher income elasticity).
Trade in goods drops faster than trade in services which account for a larger share of GDP.
Globalised production and increased trade in parts and components.
Deepening and widening of global supply chains.Limited trade finance (in addition to demand shock).
1012 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Business confidence is improving…
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2007m
1
2007m
3
2007m
5
2007m
7
2007m
9
2007m
11
2008m
1
2008m
3
2008m
5
2008m
7
2008m
9
2008m
11
2009m
1
2009m
3
2009m
5
2009m
7
2009m
9
2009m
11
2010m
1
2010m
3
2010m
5
World Advanced economies Emerging economies
IMF, WEO Update, July 2010
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, 2007-2010Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, 2007-2010
1112 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
…so does consumer confidence…
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2007
m1
2007
m3
2007
m5
2007
m7
2007
m9
2007
m11
2008
m1
2008
m3
2008
m5
2008
m7
2008
m9
2008
m11
2009
m1
2009
m3
2009
m5
2009
m7
2009
m9
2009
m11
2010
m1
2010
m3
World Advanced economies Emerging economies
IMF, WEO Update, July 2010
Retail sales, 2007-2010Retail sales, 2007-2010
1212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
…and industrial production
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2007
m1
2007
m2
2007
m3
2007
m4
2007
m5
2007
m6
2007
m7
2007
m8
2007
m9
2007
m10
2007
m11
2007
m12
2008
m1
2008
m2
2008
m3
2008
m4
2008
m5
2008
m6
2008
m7
2008
m8
2008
m9
2008
m10
2008
m11
2008
m12
2009
m1
2009
m2
2009
m3
2009
m4
2009
m5
2009
m6
2009
m7
2009
m8
2009
m9
2009
m10
2009
m11
2009
m12
2010
m1
2010
m2
2010
m3
2010
m4
World Advanced economies Emerging economies
Industrial production, 2007-2010Industrial production, 2007-2010
IMF, WEO Update, July 2010
1312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
GDP growth turned positive in Q2-2009…
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
10
Q1
IMF, WEO Update, July 2010
World GDP (% annual growth), 2007-2010 World GDP (% annual growth), 2007-2010
…UNCTAD expects GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2010
1412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
World exports forecast to grow…8
09
01
00
11
01
20
13
01
40
15
0
2007m
1
2007m
3
2007m
5
2007m
7
2007m
9
2007m
11
2008m
1
2008m
3
2008m
5
2008m
7
2008m
9
2008m
11
2009m
1
2009m
3
2009m
5
2009m
7
2009m
9
2009m
11
2010m
1
2010m
3
World Advanced economies Emerging economies
Merchandise exports, 2007-2010Merchandise exports, 2007-2010
IMF, WEO Update, July 2010
…by + 9.5% in 2010, 7.5% in developed economies;
11% ROW (developing and EIT)
1512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Commodity prices are also rising
Commodity price indices (actual and forecast, 2000=100), 2000-Commodity price indices (actual and forecast, 2000=100), 2000-20112011
World Bank, 2010
1612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Longer term outlook and a new global design
Major industrialized countries– Twenty years up to 2009: +2.2%– Next twenty years forecast: +1.8%
Major developing countries– Twenty years up to 2009: +6.3%– Next twenty years forecast: +5.9%
World average– Twenty years up to 2009: +2.9%– Next twenty years forecast: +3.5%
World exports (tons):- Expected to double in the next 20 years.
Source: IHS-Fairplay, as presented to IAME 2010, Lisbon, July 2010
1812 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Unsheltered from shocks in the wider economy…
Year Oil Main bulks a Other dry cargo Total
(all cargoes)
1970 1 442 448 676 2 566
1980 1 871 796 1 037 3 704
1990 1 755 968 1 285 4 008
2000 2 163 1 288 2 533 5 984
2006 2 698 1 849 3 135 7 682
2007 2 747 1 972 3 265 7 983
2008 2 732 2 079 3 399 8 210
2009b 2 649 2 102 3 092 7 843
UNCTAD RMT, 2010
-3%+1.1%
-9% -4.5%
World seaborne trade (tons), 1970-2009World seaborne trade (tons), 1970-2009
…seaborne trade contracted (-4.5%) in 2009
1912 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
All shipping segments negatively affected…
UNCTAD, RMT 2010; Clarkson Shipping Review (spring 2010), Dry Bulk Outlook, August, 2010, and Container Intelligence Monthly, August, 2010
2009 2010f
Iron ore 8% 6%Coal 1% 9%Grain -2% 2%Bauxite and Alumina/Phosphate Rock -27% 18%Major dry bulk 1% 7%
Minor dry bulks -13% 9%
Other dry cargo -9% 6%
of which container -9% 11%
Oil -3% 3%Total seaborne trade (tons) -4.5% 5.2%
Seaborne trade (% change), per cargo type, 2009-2010Seaborne trade (% change), per cargo type, 2009-2010
…but major dry bulk cargo held strong; China factor
2012 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
2009, a dramatic year in the history of container shipping (-9.4%)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mil
lion
TE
Us
-15
-10
-5
-
5
10
15
20
Per
cent
age
UNCTAD, based on Clarkson Research Services and Drewry Consultants
Global container trade, 1990-2010Global container trade, 1990-2010
2212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Growth in ship supply capacity continues…
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Other 31 45 49 58 75 49 92
Container 11 20 26 44 64 98 169
General cargo 116 106 103 104 101 92 108
Dry bulk 186 232 235 262 276 321 457
Oil Tanker 339 261 246 268 282 336 450
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
World fleet by vessel type in million dwt, 1980-2010World fleet by vessel type in million dwt, 1980-2010
…1.27 billion dwt at the beginning of 2010, 7% increase
UNCTAD, based on IHS- Fairplay data
2312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Record new deliveries and an impressive orderbook
Oil tankers
Dry bulk
General cargo
Container ships
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
12 /
2000
03 /
2001
06 /
2001
09 /
2001
12 /
2001
03 /
2002
06 /
2002
09 /
2002
12 /
2002
03 /
2003
06 /
2003
09 /
2003
12 /
2003
03 /
2004
06 /
2004
09 /
2004
12 /
2004
03 /
2005
06 /
2005
09 /
2005
12 /
2005
03 /
2006
06 /
2006
09 /
2006
12 /
2006
03 /
2007
06 /
2007
09 /
2007
12 /
2007
03 /
2008
06 /
2008
09 /
2008
12 /
2008
03 /
2009
06 /
2009
09 /
2009
12 /
2009
World tonnage on order, 2000-2010 (000’ dwt)World tonnage on order, 2000-2010 (000’ dwt)
UNCTAD, based on IHS- Fairplay data
2412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Wider supply and demand imbalance…
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Demand 10.7 2.4 10.5 11.6 13.4 10.6 11.2 11.4 4.3 -9.1 11.1
Supply 7.8 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 10.5 13.6 11.8 10.8 5.1 8.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a
UNCTAD, based on Clarkson Container Intelligence Monthly
Supply and demand in container shipping, 2000-2010Supply and demand in container shipping, 2000-2010
…as illustrated by container shipping
2612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
D/S determine freight rates…
The year 2009 was a bleak year for freight rates in all
market segments.
By the end of 2009, rates in all sectors have
recovered from their earlier lows albeit still
significantly below their pre-crisis levels.
Freight rates for 2010 were volatile and future
prospects remain uncertain.
2712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Baltic Tanker Indices, 2005-2010Baltic Tanker Indices, 2005-2010
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
-05
Mar-
05
May-0
5
Ju
l-05
Sep
-05
No
v-0
5
Jan
-06
Mar-
06
May-0
6
Ju
l-06
Sep
-06
No
v-0
6
Jan
-07
Mar-
07
May-0
7
Ju
l-07
Sep
-07
No
v-0
7
Jan
-08
Mar-
08
May-0
8
Ju
l-08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Jan
-09
Mar-
09
May-0
9
Ju
l-09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-10
Mar-
10
May-1
0
Dirty Index Clean Index
UNCTAD , based on Lloyd’s Shipping Economist data
…tanker rates fell with falling oil demand
2812 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Dry cargo freight indices, 2004-2010Dry cargo freight indices, 2004-2010
UNCTAD, based on ISL-Shipping Statistics and Market Review
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan
-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-
04
Sep
-04
No
v-04
Jan
-05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-
05
Sep
-05
No
v-05
Jan
-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-
06
Sep
-06
No
v-06
Jan
-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-
07
Sep
-07
No
v-07
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-08
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-09
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
Tramp Trip
…dry bulk rates supported by demand from China…
2912 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Container freight rates, 2005-2009Container freight rates, 2005-2009
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
q12005
q22005
q32005
q42005
q12006
q22006
q32006
q42006
q12007
q22007
q32007
q42007
q12008
q22008
q32008
q42008
q12009
q22009
q32009
q42009
Asia–USA USA–Asia Europe–Asia Asia–Europe USA–Europe Europe–USA
UNCTAD, based on Containerisation International data
… container rates supported by a series of counter-measures
3012 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Summary of key points (1)
2009, a record in history.
Prospects are improving; recovery varying in speed, driven by emerging developing economies (e.g. Asia).
Various forecasts for 2010/2011 (UNCTAD, IMF, WB, IHS-Fairplay, …); all positive.
World merchandise trade is forecast to grow in 2010 and 2011(e.g. WTO and World Bank).
World seaborne trade also forecast to grow in 2010 and 2011.
3212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Summary of key points (2)
Sustainability of recovery, strength and shape (V, U or W)?
Public debts
Unemployment and bank lending
Stimulus packages (duration/end)
Is observed trade recovery driven by new demand?
Supply-side pressures
Known and unknown crises
3312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
III. Emerging challenges and issues to monitor
Energy: access, security and pricesEnergy: access, security and prices
Climate change: mitigation and adaptationClimate change: mitigation and adaptation
Seafaring crisis?
Supply chain security and piracy
Other global crises: e.g. food, water, financial…
Geopolitics
Other ?
3412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Focus on two emerging global challenges
Climate change & energy: interconnectedClimate change & energy: interconnected Climate change mitigation action has implications for ship
design, engines, fuel systems, operations, services, management, value, etc.
Indirect implications through changes in demand for shipping services. E.g. climate induced changes in trade structure, flows and patterns through impacts on sectors such as energy production and consumption, agriculture and food products, demography and human settlement, etc.
Climate change mitigation and adaptation require energy. However, there are signs of a looming energy crisis. Shipping is heavily reliant on oil for propulsion and not yet in a position to effectively and widely adopt substitutes.
3612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
…and publications by UNCTAD, including on oil prices and maritime freight rates,
maritime transport and the climate change challenge, as well as supply chain
security are available at:
UNCTAD Trade Logistics Branchwww.unctad.org/ttl/legal
UNCTAD’s annual Review of Maritime Transport and quarterly Transport Newsletter are available at: www.unctad.org/transportnews
Addition information…