1230 belward impact of the new implementation plan [read-only] belward... · the global risks...
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Impact of the New Implementation PlanNew Implementation Plan
Alan Belward* and Mark Dowell*on behalf of the IP Writing Team
*EC Joint Research Centre IspraEC Joint Research Centre, Ispra
Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and world human population since GCOS was established
13% more CO2 in the atmosphere now than in 1992
World’s human population increases by 148 people per minute
Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and world human population since GCOS was established
UNFCCC Paris Agreement December 2015
Agenda 2030 and the SDGs agreed at the
Sustainable Development Summit September 2015
The Future We Want set at the Rio
+20 June 2012
Agenda 21 set at the Earth
Summit 1992
The Global Risks Landscape 2016Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2016
Copyright World Economic Forum 2016http://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2016
① A global risk is an uncertain① A global risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for severalnegative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.
② In the face of considerable ‘competition’, failure ofcompetition , failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation is flagged as the #1 risk*the #1 risk*
*greater than weapons of mass destruction (2nd), water crises (3rd), large-scale involuntary migration (4th) and severe energy price shock (5th).
COP-21: Paris Agreement Article 7 (7c)• Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research, systematic g g g , g , y
observation of the climate system and early warning systems, in a manner that informs climate services and supports decision- making
• Developing the Transparency Framework (the need to promote transparency, p g p y ( p p y,accuracy, completeness, consistency, and comparability, and environmental integrity)
SBSTA C l iSBSTA Conclusions:• Noted with appreciation the [Status] report by GCOS
• Encouraged GCOS to consider the outcomes of the twenty-first session of theEncouraged GCOS to consider the outcomes of the twenty first session of the Conference of the Parties when preparing the GCOS IP 2016
• Invited GCOS to collaborate with relevant partners to continue enhancing access to and understanding and interpretation of data products andaccess to, and understanding and interpretation of, data products and information to support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation at national, regional and global scales
@@
CoP 3 CoP 21
Progress against 138 gactions in 2010 IP update
Status report version
NIP draft version
Work in progress: incorporates 2015 GCOS Steering Committee input
will incorporate GCOS Science panel input 2016
Examples from list of 32 Indicators linked to the 20 Aichi targets and the 5 CBD strategic goals
Selection of the 8 UNCCD Progress Indicators
UNFCCC
CBD
UNCCD
SDGs
increase productivity, strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate
transboundarywater resources
management
protect and restore water-related ecosystems
phenology – plant growth and differentiation; ocean flow;
seasonal surface water
lake area and levels
pchange
management
reduce adverse environmental impact of cities
manage and protect marine and coastal
t
total terrestrial
system status and trends in habitats that provide
dynamics
land cover change
soil
SST and salinity
anomalies
pecosystems
Minimize impacts of ocean
carbon stockhabitats that provide
carbon storage
t d i f soil carbon
ocean colour
of ocean acidification
ecosystem extent and
net primary productivity
disturbance
trends in area of degraded ecosystems
being restored
FAPARand LAI
wind speed and burnt area and
active fire h lt th l l d d ti it
ecosystem extent and fragmentation/ functional
types Regimes
h bit t wind speed and direction
halt deforestation, increase afforestation
halt the loss of biodiversity
land productivity dynamics
habitat structure
land cover
increase afforestation and reforestation
combat desertification, restore land and soil, achieve a land
degradation-neutral world
Vegetative land cover
10 km
Karkheh River, Iran 21st July 1993 merged into 21st December 1999 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA
10 km
Karkheh River, Iran 21st December 1999 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA
10 km
Karkheh River, Iran 23rd February 2000 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA
10 km
Karkheh River, Iran 24th January 2001 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA
10 km
Lake area and levels
Karkheh River, Iran 27th January 2002 Landsat courtesy USGS / NASA
10 km
Maximum water extent
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Extent 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
10 km
30 year water occurrence
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Occurrence 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
10 km
Water occurrence changes
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Occurrence Change Intenstity 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J.F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
10 km
Inter-annual variability
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Seasonality 2014 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
10 km
Intra-annual variability
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Recurrence 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
10 km
Transitions
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Transitions 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J-F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
10 km
Risk assessment and planning
Protect and water-related
Land coverHabitat structure
and planning water related ecosystems
Land cover h
Lake area and levels
change
Dist rbance
Carbon storage
Disturbance regimes
Transboundary water resource management
Ecosystem fragmentation
Land degradation
Vegetative land cover
Karkheh River, Iran Global Water Occurrence 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE
management degradation neutrality
cover
86,139 km2 of permanent water lost, 168,215 km2 of permanent water gained
Naypyidaw
Baghdad
200 kmIraq (left) Myanmar (right), Global Water Occurrence Change Intenstity 1984 – 2015 Source JRC and GEE (J.F. Pekel, A. Cottam, N. Gorelick, A.S. Belward)
increase productivity, strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate
transboundarywater resources
management
protect and restore water-related ecosystems
phenology – plant growth and differentiation; ocean flow;
seasonal surface water
lake area and levels
pchange
management
reduce adverse environmental impact of cities
manage and protect marine and coastal
t
total terrestrial
system status and trends in habitats that provide
dynamics
land cover change
soil
SST and salinity
anomalies
pecosystems
Minimize impacts of ocean
carbon stockhabitats that provide
carbon storage
t d i f soil carbon
ocean colour
of ocean acidification
ecosystem extent and
net primary productivity
disturbance
trends in area of degraded ecosystems
being restored
FAPARand LAI
wind speed and burnt area and
active fire h lt th l l d d ti it
ecosystem extent and fragmentation/ functional
types Regimes
h bit t wind speed and direction
halt deforestation, increase afforestation
halt the loss of biodiversity
land productivity dynamics
habitat structure
land cover
increase afforestation and reforestation
combat desertification, restore land and soil, achieve a land
degradation-neutral world
Vegetative land cover
ECVs and Earth System Cycles
Energy Watergy
Carbon
Satellite Data Providers①Substantial engagement in IP /
status cycle
②
Traceable to GCOS Guidelines and GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles
②Strong demand (for ECV spec.) and strong supply
③ Important to the space agency③ Important to the space agency coordination mechanisms, individual agencies and their programmes
④Considerable Resources ll t dallocated
Dowell et. al. 2013 Strategy Towards an Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space
ECV Product Requirements and the Satellite Supplementpp①Maximise GCOS / CEOS / CGMS synergy
②Reduce time-lag between IP and Satellite②Reduce time lag between IP and Satellite Supplement release
③Align requested reporting of both GCOS g q p gand the Space Agencies to SBSTA
④Provide Satellite Supplement as an Appendix to the New Implementation Plan
⑤Extend ECV product requirements provided in satellite supplement to in situprovided in satellite supplement to in-situ data
Timetable① Structure finalized by writing team (February 2016)① Structure finalized by writing team (February 2016)
② Scientific community views and reviews at GCOS Science Conference (March 2016)
③ GCOS Science Panel development, review and input (March –April 2016)
④ Second writing team meeting to prepare first complete draft (May g g p p p ( y2016)
⑤ V0.1 submitted for Community review July 2016
⑥ P bli i l d f A t 2016⑥ Public review closes end of August 2016
⑦ V1.0 prepared in light of comments on V0.1
⑧ V1 0 submitted to GCOS SC October 2016 and subsequently to⑧ V1.0 submitted to GCOS SC October 2016 and subsequently to SBSTA/CoP
The writing team... so far• Alan Belward• Mark Dowell• Roger Saunders• Han DolmanHan Dolman• Michel Verstraete• Bernadette Sloyan• Toste Tanhua
K d St ff• Konrad Steffen• Shaun Quegan• Pascal Lecomte• Stephen Briggsp gg• Carolin Richter• Simon Eggleston• Katy Hill• Robert Husband• Robert Husband• Detlef Stammer• (Adrian Simmons)
IP 2016 Table of ContentTHE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE: IMPLEMENTATION NEEDS (tbc)
Part 1: Part 2:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION2. PURPOSE OF THE PLAN3. GROWING DEMANDS FOR CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS
1. OVER‐ARCHING & CROSS‐CUTTING ACTIONS2. ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMOBSERVATIONS
3.1. The need for information on Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation3.2 The need for information in support of Climate Services
SYSTEM 3. OCEANIC CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM4. TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM
APPENDICES3.3. Climate Indicators3.4. Cross Convention Co‐ordination on Observations
4. CONSISTENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
APPENDICESAPPENDIX 1: UNFCCC SBSTA: Excerpts from the conclusions on research and systematic observation up APPENDIX 2: Decision 9/CP.15 ‐ Systematic Climate Observations.APPENDIX 3: GCOS Climate Monitoring PrinciplesAPPENDIX 4:Agents for ImplementationAPPENDIX 5: List of Annex‐I and non‐Annex‐I Parties to the UNFCCC
THE EARTH SYSTEM CYCLES
SUMMARY OF MAIN ACTIONS
APPENDIX 6: ContributorsAPPENDIX 7: List of TablesAPPENDIX 8: Glossary of Acronyms
Annex:ECV PRODUCT REQUIREMENTS / SATELLITE SUPPLEMENT
Impacts
① C ti it d① Continuity, and progress
② Addresses information needs for adaptation and mitigation
③ Addresses information needs of Transparency Framework
④ Greater efficiency
⑤ Improved capacity building and outreach
⑥ Improved information exchange between conventions⑥ Improved information exchange between conventions
⑦ Focused demand on core ‘providers’
⑧ F d d t f ‘ ’⑧ Focused products for core ‘users’