1.231 term project multiple airports in campania italy shiro yamanaka ctl mst ’04

1.231 Term ProjectMultiple Airports in

Campania Italy

Shiro Yamanaka

CTL MST ’04

Campania Airports

Motivation

Campania regional gov’t hopes to build a second airport near Naples Prepare for future growth Environmental concerns Safety concerns

Biggest Concern How do we get airlines to ACTUALLY use it??

Campania Airports

Why Concerned?

Total OriginatingLondon Yes 112 41Los Angeles Yes 90 38Tokyo Yes 82 35New York Yes 95 34Paris Yes 74 31San Francisco Yes 65 22Miami Yes 55 21Chicago Yes 88 21Washington Yes 55 19Osaka Yes 36 17Boston Yes 35 16Hong Kong Yes 41 16Seoul Yes 37 15Dallas/Fort Worth Yes 68 14Atlanta No 80 14Las Vegas No 37 14

Metropolitan RegionMulti-AirportSystem, 2001

Traffic, Millions of Passengers

Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.For more info, refer to: de Neufville, Richard. “Management of Multi-Airport Systems: A Development Strategy.”

Journal of Air Transport Management 2.2 (1995): 99-110.

Threshold for successful multi-airport systems

Campania Airports

Why Concerned? (Cont.)Source: de Neufville, and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.

Total OriginatingLondon Yes 112 41Los Angeles Yes 90 38Tokyo Yes 82 35New York Yes 95 34Paris Yes 74 31San Francisco Yes 65 22Miami Yes 55 21Chicago Yes 88 21Washington Yes 55 19Osaka Yes 36 17Boston Yes 35 16Hong Kong Yes 41 16Seoul Yes 37 15Dallas/Fort Worth Yes 68 14Atlanta No 80 14Las Vegas No 37 14Brussels Yes 26 13Houston Yes 44 13Orlando Yes 32 12Milan Yes 25 11Toronto Yes 29 11Shanghai Yes 18 8



Campania Airports


Total OriginatingLondon Yes 112 41Los Angeles Yes 90 38Tokyo Yes 82 35New York Yes 95 34Paris Yes 74 31San Francisco Yes 65 22Miami Yes 55 21Chicago Yes 88 21Washington Yes 55 19Osaka Yes 36 17Boston Yes 35 16Hong Kong Yes 41 16Seoul Yes 37 15Dallas/Fort Worth Yes 68 14Atlanta No 80 14Las Vegas No 37 14Brussels Yes 26 13Houston Yes 44 13Orlando Yes 32 12Milan Yes 25 11Toronto Yes 29 11Dusseldorf/Bonn Yes 22 11 Political: former capitalSao Paulo Yes 20 10 Technical: runway lengthTaipei Yes 21 9 Technical: runway lengthShanghai Yes 18 8Moscow Yes 17 8 Political/MilitarySt. Louis Yes 21 Political: mid-AmericaBerlin Yes 12 6 Political: was divided cityBuenos Aires Yes 13 6 Technical: runway lengthMontreal Yes 10 4 Widely viewed as mistakeRio de Janeiro Yes 9 4 Technical: runway lengthBelfast Yes 4 2 Technical: runway length



Campania Airports


Total OriginatingLondon Yes 112 41Los Angeles Yes 90 38Tokyo Yes 82 35New York Yes 95 34Paris Yes 74 31San Francisco Yes 65 22Miami Yes 55 21Chicago Yes 88 21Washington Yes 55 19Osaka Yes 36 17Boston Yes 35 16Hong Kong Yes 41 16Seoul Yes 37 15Dallas/Fort Worth Yes 68 14Atlanta No 80 14Las Vegas No 37 14Brussels Yes 26 13Houston Yes 44 13Orlando Yes 32 12Milan Yes 25 11Toronto Yes 29 11Dusseldorf/Bonn Yes 22 11 Political: former capitalSao Paulo Yes 20 10 Technical: runway lengthTaipei Yes 21 9 Technical: runway lengthShanghai Yes 18 8Moscow Yes 17 8 Political/MilitarySt. Louis Yes 21 Political: mid-AmericaBerlin Yes 12 6 Political: was divided cityBuenos Aires Yes 13 6 Technical: runway lengthMontreal Yes 10 4 Widely viewed as mistakeRio de Janeiro Yes 9 4 Technical: runway lengthBelfast Yes 4 2 Technical: runway lengthNaples Planning 4 2



Campania Airports


Second Third Fourth Fifth SixthLondon 49.5 14.7 6.3 2.2New York 95.9 74.3 2.9 1.5Los Angeles 11.4 9.9 6.9 1.9 0.9Chicago 22.1 0.1Tokyo 45.6Paris 52.8 0.8Dallas/Fort Worth 11.7San Francisco 31.8 26.7Miami 47.3 17.3Washington 98.0 78.5Houston 25.9Hong Kong 15.9 8.0Osaka 80.4Boston 23.7 4.0Orlando 3.9Brussels 27.5 1.0Milan 38.8 6.5Dusseldorf/Bonn 37.8 1.3Toronto N/ATaipei 30.5Sao Paolo 34.4 1.4Shanghai 80.0Moscow 43.8 33.3 1.0Buenos Aires 79.5Berlin 19.8 8.3Montreal 16.5Rio de Janeiro 41.4 17.2Belfast 43.3

Overall Average 41.1 17.8

Metropolitan RegionTraffic at Secondary Airports

(% of Primary Airport)

Campania Airports

Why Concerned? (Cont.)

Due to inadequate demand and airlines’ tendency to concentrate service at the primary airport, planners worry that no one will use the new airport!

Campania Airports

Naples: Other Characteristics

Campania Airports


Runway

Length 2.650 m.

Width 45 m.

Orientation 06 – 24

Material Asphalt

Max Weight 28,000 Kg. SIWL

Source: NACO Report 2002

Campania Airports

Naples: Other CharacteristicsAircraft Mix

NLA 0%

H 20%

M 65%

S 15%

L 0%

Runway Occupancy Time

Take Off 66 s

Landing 45 s

Distance

Minimum Separation 5 n. mi

Approach Path 19 n. mi.

Departure Path 4 n. mi.


Campania Airports


New airport is almost 30 Km from downtown Naples.

Currently, no good access to the site, but the gov’t plans to build highway and high speed rail link.


Campania Airports


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

# Flights

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Time

Hourly Departure Flights

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

# Flights

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Time

Hourly Arrival Flights

year

CAPACITA’ ATTUALE E FUTURAE UTILIZZAZIONE DELL’AEROPORTO DI CAPODICHINO

Movimenti aerei annui

Intervallo di possibile

saturazione

2002

Capacità Attuale

Capacità 2020

52.300

67.000

78.000

2009 2019

GC

2020

80.000

119.000

DE

Most Agg. Frcst: 119,000 mvmt / yr4.7% annual growth for 18 yrs

Least Agg. Frcst: 80,000 mvmt / yr2.4% annual growth for 18 yrs

However, 119,000 mvmt / yr represents approx. 20 mvmt / hr assuming 16-hour operation / day.


Source: http://www.gesac.it

Campania Airports

Why Concentrate?

S-shape relationship between Frequency Share and Market Share

Market Share vs Frequency Share"S-Shaped Relationship"

MarketShare, %

Frequency Share, %

0%

100%

(Reproduced from de Neufville and Odoni. Airport Systems. 2002.)

Observation

- Airline with low frequency share suffers from disproportionably low market share, while airline with larger frequency share tend to capture dominating market share.

- Thus, airlines tend to concentrate their flights at one airport in order to dominate the market, or at least to prevent competitor from doing so.

Campania Airports

Why Concentrate? Previous studies also used Binomial or Multinomial Logit Models to

predict passenger behavior in Multiple Airport Systems

Results: Airport access time and flight frequency seems to be the most important

attributes (Con)

Given more than one reasonably accessible airports, and if they all provide high frequency of service (usually defined to be >= 9 flights per day) to his or her destination, the traveler will most likely choose the one closest (Con)

However, if one airport provides noticeably low frequency of service to his or her destination, the traveler is likely to choose the one which provides the higher frequency even if it is farther away. In other words, when there is a large gap between frequencies at competing airports, access time attribute becomes less important. (Mix)

Campania Airports

Why Concentrate? Logit Model Results (Cont.):

Lower fares are important for leisure travelers, but business travelers seem to care more about service frequencies when choosing airport. For both types of travelers, the airport access time is important. (Mix)

Changes in both airport access time and service frequency influence the behavior of both leisure travelers and business travelers, but the latter seems to be more sensitive to the changes. It is because business travelers have higher value of time than leisure travelers. (Con)

Experience with one airport seems to affect the passenger choice of airport as well. Passengers prefer to use the airport they are comfortable with, even if it may be older and more congested. (Con)

Campania Airports

Why Concentrate?

Airlines are very much aware of these preferences, and adjust their distribution of

flights accordingly!

Campania Airports

What we recommended?(so far…)

Given the tendency of urban sprawl and high uncertainty about the future of commercial air transport, it is recommended to secure the site for future development.

(Is it better to have the option in 2050 or not?)

Accept the fact that it might be necessary to close down the old airport.

Instead of letting them competing directly, try to differentiate services: Low fare carrier? (Southwest examples in the US. Rome traffic?) Charter and Cargo? Different set of destinations?

Major League network: Heathrow, CDG, Schiphol, etc. Minor League network: Gatwick, Orly, Brussels, etc.

1.231 term project multiple airports in campania italy shiro yamanaka ctl mst ’04

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