13 47 749294 bpstatisticalreviewofworldenergy-brussels september2008
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
1/37
BP 2008
BP Statistical Reviewof World Energy
An Update: The Long Termand the Short Term
Christof RhlChief Economist
Brussels, September, 2008
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
2/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Outline
Introduction
High Energy PricesThe Long Term and the Short Term
The Oil Market
Other Fuels
Conclusion
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
3/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Energy Consumption and Energy Prices
Oil Gas Coal
y-o-y
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
98 00 02 04 06 08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$/bbl $/Mmbtu
98 00 02 04 06 08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$/t
98 00 02 04 06 08
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
4/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Real Commodity Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Oil Wheat Iron & SteelIndex: average 1970-2008 = 100
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
5/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
GDP and Primary Energy Growth
2000s
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1967 1969 1971 1973
Growth1970s
2001 2003 2005 2007
Primary energy GDP (PPP)
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
6/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Contributions to Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
OECD Non-OECD
5-year moving average
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
OECD Non-OECD
Primary energyGDP
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
7/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Power Generation and Primary Energy
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1991-2000 2001-2007
OECD Non-OECD
Average growth p.a.
Power generation
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Power
Generation
Primary
Energy
GDP
10-year average
2007 global growth
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
8/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Economic Growth and Oil ConsumptionGrowth
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990-2000 2000-2007
Share of growth
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1990-2000 2000-2007
Mb/d
Average annual growth of oil production and consumption
Contribution to GDP growth Oil Consumption growth
OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
OECDOECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECDNon-OECD
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
9/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Turn of the Commodity Price Cycle?
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2003 2006
Baltic Dry Freight Rates
GSCI wheat index
Iron ore & steel scrap HWWI index
Brent
Index: Average for 2000-08 = 100
2008
100 = average for 2000-08
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
10/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
The Oil Market
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
11/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Real and Nominal Crude Oil Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Nominal price Real price$/bbl
$ 106.74 per barrel in December 1979 $ 98.46 per barrel in Sep 2008
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
12/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Global Oil Demand Growth Has Slowed
Kb/d
Exporters and importers
Heavy
subsidies
Moderate
subsidies
Moderate
taxes
Heavy
taxes
10-year average
Taxes and subsidies
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Oil
exporters
Non-OECD
oil
importers
OECD oil
importers
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
13/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
And Remains Price Sensitive
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08
2.00
2.40
2.80
3.20
3.60
4.00
4.40
$/gallonKb/d
Pump price
US Gasoline Consumption Growth
Source: EIA
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
14/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Recap: Supply Management 2007
OECD
OPEC-10
Other
OPEC
FSUROW
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Growth Decline
Mb/d
OECD
OPEC-10
Other
OPEC
FSU
ROW
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Growth Decline
Mb/d
Average annual change, 2003-2007 Change 2007
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
15/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
And OECD Commercial Inventories 2007
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2002-2006 range Stocks in 2007 Brent oil price (rhs)
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mbbls $/bbl
Sources: IEA, Platts
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
16/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
2007 Oil Production: Largest Changes
Non-OPEC
FSU
OPEC
Kb/dDecrease Increase
Norway
Mexico
Venezuela
Nigeria
Canada
Sudan
Iraq
Russia
AzerbaijanAngola
Saudi Arabia
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
17/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Production Increase in Saudi Arabia
Call on OPEC-10 Crude
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Saudi Arabia Other OPEC-10
Y-o-Y Change, Mb/d
OPEC-10 Crude Production
Oil price (rhs)
25
26
27
28
2006 2007 2008 2009
Mb/d
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
18/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
... And What a Difference a Year Makes
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Range 03-07 2007 2008 and forecastMbbls
B t Ri k i t th D id Gl b l D d
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
19/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
But Risk is to the Downside: Global DemandGrowth
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Kb/d
GDP Oil consumption
y-o-y growth
Base case (2.1%)
Low-growth case (1.5%)
US
Europe
Japan China
ME
S&C Am.
World
US
Europe
Japan China
ME
S&C Am.
World
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
20/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Project Delays Continue to Mount
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2006 Assessment
2007 Assessment
2008 Assessment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2006 2009 2012
Production with OriginalStart Dates
Currently ExpectedProduction
Mb/d Mb/d
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
21/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Russian Oil Production
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2001 2003 2005 2007
y-o-y growth
2005 2006 2007 2008
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
Mb/d
Source: Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
22/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
2007 Refining Capacity Additions
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
World Av. 2002-2005
World 2007
N.America
S. & Cent. America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
China
Asia Pacific ex China
Kb/d
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
23/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Financial Investment in Energy
-300
-225
-150
-75
0
75
150
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08
WTI
Heating Oil
Henry Hub
Non-commercial net length
$/boe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08
Open interestEnergy prices
000 contracts Million contracts
Sources: CFTC, Platts
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
24/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Other Fossil Fuels
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
25/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
2007 Natural Gas: Largest Changes
Production Consumption
-10 0 10 20 30 40
US
China
Qatar
Nigeria
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Russia
Canada
UK
Billion m3 Billion m3
-10 0 10 20 30 40
US
China
Russia
Japan
Turkey
Chile
Germany
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
26/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
2007 LNG Market Diversification
Number of export markets Number of suppliers
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Algeria
Trinidad
Egypt
Nigeria
Qatar
Oman
Australia
Malaysia
UAE
Eq. Guinea
Indonesia
Norway
Brunei
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Japan
outh Korea
Taiwan
Spain
India
US
France
Turkey
UK
China
Mexico
Belgium
Greece
S
Atlantic Basin
Middle East
Pacific Basin
Source: Cedigaz
F l S i hi i P G i
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
27/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Fuel Switching in Power Generation 2005-07
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-60 -40 -20 0 20
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-6 -3 0 3 6
Gas competitiveness vs. resid ($/Mmbtu)
Gas Share US gas vs. oilUK gas vs. coal
Gas is not competitive Gas iscompetitive
Gas is not competitive Gas iscompetitive
Gas competitiveness vs. coal (/MWh)
Sources: EIA, BERR, Platts, McCloskey, ECX
2007 C l P d i d C i
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
28/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
2007 Coal Production and Consumption
17%60%
3%
1%
19%20%
2%
5%
14%59%Europe& Eurasia
Consumption
S & Cent.
America
Africa
North AmericaAsia Pacific
Europe& Eurasia
Production
S & Cent.
America
Africa
North AmericaAsia Pacific
C l P d ti O t id Chi
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
29/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Coal Production Outside China
Biggest coal producers Largest production growth, 1998-2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
US
Austr
alia
India
South
Afric
a
Russia
Ind
onesia
Mtoe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Indon
esia
Austr
alia
India
Russia
South
Afric
a
Colom
bia
Mtoe
12.3%
3.8%
3.7%
3.1%
2%8.3%
Average annual growth
GDP d P G ti
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
30/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
GDP and Power Generation
Growth in China, 2003-2007 Global breakdown
Average growth p.a.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
GDP PowerPrimary energy Coal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
GDP Power Coal
Share
China
OECD
Othernon-
OECD
India
Oth F l
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
31/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Other Fuels
Global Oil Reserves
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
32/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Global Oil Reserves
0
400
800
1200
1600
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Middle East S. & Cent. AmericaEurope & Eurasia Africa
North America Asia Pacific
Other oil sands
Billion bbls
2007 Carbon Emissions Growth
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
33/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
2007 Carbon Emissions Growth
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
World Europe FSU North
America
Middle
East
S. &
Cent.
America
Africa Asia
Pacific
10-year averagey-o-y growth
Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
34/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output
Nuclear Hydro
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007
10-year average
y-o-y growth
Contribution to Electricity Generation Growth
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
35/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
from Renewables*
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2004 2005 2006 2007
World OECD
Share of electricity generation growth, 3-year moving average
* Wind, photovoltaics and geothermal
Renewables
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
36/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Renewables
Electricity generation in Germany Volume of ethanol in US gasoline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2003 2005 2007
HydroOther renewables
TWh
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2001 2003 2005 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500Share (lhs)
Kb/dShare
Ethanol
consumption (rhs)
Sources: BDEW, EIA
Conclusion
-
7/28/2019 13 47 749294 BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy-Brussels September2008
37/37
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 BP 2008
Conclusion
High economic growth and improvements inenergy intensity
The long tern: Importance of developingworld
Oil market constrained, gas marketintegrating, global coal market emerging
Volatility will increase - prices are effective,
where allowed to work