Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

Bioversity workplan for 2015 and 2016

Presented at May 25-28 meeting, Rome

ObjectivesBioversity program of work with Global Futures and Strategic Foresight is designed to examine, at multiple scales, the trade-offs/complementarities between sustainable agricultural production and those ecosystem-services (ESS) affected by safeguarding agriculture and tree biodiversity. These include services which affect productivity,• Risks of pests/diseases• Pollination• Soil health• Water quality and use-efficiency

Reason for analysis at multiple scales

Consideration of agriculture in a systems framework requires analysis of • Below-ground and above ground impacts of production

systems• Equity and gender impacts• Sustainable livelihoods, profitability, and resilience of

production systems• Impacts on other sectors• Labor implications• NRM implications• Climate change mitigation, adaptation implications, etc

Still being defined. Current engagement has involvedElisabetta GotorEnoch KikulweLinkage with A4NH team in BioversityLinkage with intra-species diversity team in BioversityLinkage with WLE team in BioversityWageningen UniversityIIASARoma Tre UniversityFrancesco Caracciolo, University of NaplesPaolo Colangelo, Istituto per lo Studio degli Ecosistemi

Team

Plan of Action

• We just joined GFSF• Held workshop in Rome May 7-8, 2015 where we had 45

participants – from across CGIAR and outside CGIAR.• Started a literature review on integrating biodiversity and

ESS into foresight models in partnership with IIASA• Starting a literature review to link biodiversity to ESS• Holding internal meetings first half of June to identify

research questions at each scale of analysis

Key questions in the May Workshop

• What should be the objective of collaborative work in this area?

• What are 3 concrete work streams which would accomplish this goal?

• What geographic area or areas may be recommended for focus?

Key points emerging from the May Workshop

• Data: availability, gap, developing common platform, coordination

• Clearly identify ESS, develop common definition and indicators for use

• Challenge to link research across scales• Need to improve/increase empirical validation of models• Come up with concrete research questions for moving

forward

Bioversity interested in integrating biodiversity data into crop models

15 countries• Africa: Ethiopia, Uganda, Morocco, Burkina Faso• Central and Southern America: Mexico, Peru, Ecuador• Asia: Nepal, Vietnam, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,

Turkmenistan, Tajikistan• Europe: Hungary

XX Annual crops• barley, maize, rice, durum wheat, faba bean, common bean, taro, chili,

squash, finger millet, sponge gourd, pigeon pea, sorghum, cowpea, okra

XX Perennial fruit trees• Banana/plantain, Apple, Pear, Almond, Pistachio, Pomegranate, Apricot,

Grape, Walnut

XX Sites and sample numbers• Five focus groups and 60 Households per site per crop; two to five

agroecological sites per country

Research plan under GFSF

• Participation in the banana component of IMPACT• Work on establishing a relationship between use of

biodiversity and the risks from pest/disease focusing on specific host/pest/disease relationship

• This will likely be pursued both at the specific commodity level and at the landscape level

• Trade-off analysis at farm/household level• Also planning to work with a CGE component. We are

still deciding the details.

Linking biodiversity to ESS

• Use geospatial and field trial data to estimate relationships

• Explore the use of remote-sensing data to spatially scale the relationship

• Explore the use of process models

Integrating biodiversity and ESS at the agriculture-sector level

• Participation in the banana component of IMPACT• Look at banana production at a system-level• Incorporation of biodiversity, through its affect on

ecosystem services such as potential for pest/disease

Analysis at the household/farm level

• In partnership with Wageningen University, A4NH and System CRPs

• Ongoing work in Zambia, expanding to Kenya under PIM• Potential for expansion to Vietnam

We are exploring both/either looking at global and/or a specific countryWe will choose the country and issues based on critical mass of ongoing work and the potential for ESS for impact.We are collaborating with Roma Tre University on this.

Integrating biodiversity and ESS at the economy-wide level

Anticipated Outputs for 2015

• Poster presented to AgMIP meeting February 2015 on using varietal mixtures to control bean fly infestation in Uganda

• May 7-8 workshop in Rome• IAAE organized symposium in Milan, August 2015• Paper on bioeconomic modelling literature review to be

submitted to a journal• Draft of literature review on biodiversity and ecosystem

linkages to be completed

Questions

Thank you