13 terrifying trends that are changing the face of...

13 terrifying trends that are changing the face of charities

Presentation to IoF Insight in Fundraising Conference November 2013

Trend 1: Baby boomers are special but they won’t last for ever

2

The UK’s ageing society

Source: ONS/nVision | Base: UK

UK population in 2011 and 2020, by age | Thousands

0-15 +830,000

16-26 -740,000

27-38 +1,510,000

39-49 -1,160,000

50-64 +1,230,000

65-89 +1,950,000

Gradual increases in life expectancy

Source: Population Projections, National Statistics/nVision | Base: UK

Projections of expectation of life for men | Years, at birth and selected ages

Trend 2: Wealth is on the rise

The engine of personal wealth : the recent history of Gross Domestic Product in the UK

Source: Oxford Economics/nVision | Base : UK, 2012

In billions, nominal and real GDP. Oxford Economics forecast, October 2012 projection

Composition of household net wealth : homes are the preferred way of investing and saving

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011

£ billion at 2009 prices

Income as affluence : most of the UK falls into the middle income category

Source: HMRC/nVision | Base : UK, 2012

Around one third of British households are

financed by two incomes.

In around one third of these, the woman earns

more than the man.

Number of British income tax payers (thousands) by income category for 2011-2012

Income distribution : often related to household type

Affluence

Source: DWP/ nVision | Base : UK, 2011

Couples without children are most likely to be in the top fifth of income earners

and least likely to be in the bottom fifth.

Distribution of household disposable income by household type | 2011

Trend 3: Consumers are always in touch

Daily use of mobile internet - trend and forecast

Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals 16+, GB, 2013

“Which of these describes how often you have used the internet via your mobile phone in the last 6 months?” | % who have used it “every or nearly every day” or “several times a day” | August 2013 forecast

Social networkers : 80% by 2020

% who are social networkers | See notes for definition

Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,000 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB

Source: nVision/ Eurostat Survey on ICT Usage | Base: All individuals aged 16+, UK

% using the internet at least once a week | nVision forecast

Internet usage forecast : nearly 100% among 16-24s by 2010s

Smartphone ownership : on the increase

Source: Ofcom Technology Tracking Survey/nVision | Base: 2,073 face-to-face respondents, who personally use a mobile phone aged 16+, UK, 2012

% of mobile phone users who own a smartphone | See notes page for question wording

% who access the internet via their mobile phone at least once a week | nVision forecast

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 face-to-face/ 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB

Mobile internet usage : over 85% by 2020

HDTVs : in the ascendancy

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 – 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB

“Which of these do you have in your home or personally? High definition / HD ready TV”

E-readers : in the ascendancy

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000–5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012

“Which of these do you have in your home or personally? An e-reader (e.g. Kindle, Nook, Sony Reader)”

Tablet PCs : in the ascendancy

Source: nVision Research | Base: all individuals aged 16-74, GB, 2012

“Which of these do you have in your home or personally? A tablet PC (e.g. iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab, BlackBerry PlayBook)”

The always-connected mentality

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000–5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012

“I never turn my mobile phone off” | % who agree or agree strongly

Trend 4: Recommendations are on the rise

The importance of recommendations for HNWIs

“If a friend or family member recommends a product or service to me I am much more likely to

buy it” | % who strongly or slightly agree | 2012

Source: HNW Consortium/nVision Research/Future Foundation | Base: 1,500 online respondents aged 18+, GB, 2012

“I use social networking sites to pass on recommendations of products and services to friends and family” | Among social networkers | 2013

Source: nVision Research | Base: 3,670 online respondents who use social networking sites, aged 16+, GB, 2013

Passing on recommendations via social networks

Trend 5: Debt drives consumers

Individuals’ outstanding unsecured debt

Source: Bank of England/nVision, UK, 2013

£0

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total unsecured debt

Credit card debt

Non-credit card unsecured debt

Quarterly, seasonally adjusted, in millions | Data up to Q3 2013

Student population and the number of graduates : both have seen large increases over the last decade Figures in 000’s | 2012

Source: CBI/nVision | Base: 694 employers, UK, 2012

Trend 6: Houses still rule our wealth

“My main property reflects my financial success” Among HNWIs | 2012

Source: HNW Consortium/Future Foundation | Base: 1,500 online respondents aged 18+, GB, 2012

Property preferences among HNWIs

Highest wealth bracket

• A safe neighbourhood

• Large reception rooms

• Ensuite bedrooms

• Large private garden/grounds

• Privacy

Young & urban

• Close to transport links

• Close to work

• Safe neighbourhood

• How secure the property is

• Allocated parking

65+


• Ensuite bedrooms

• Privacy


• Large private grounds/garden

Those with kids


• Proximity to schools

• Large private grounds/garden


• Outside space

Source: HNW Consortium/Future Foundation | Base: 1,500 online respondents aged 18+, GB, 2012

Trend 7: Consumers can sidestep boredom!

The quest for worthwhile activity : over 50% say that they dread moments of boredom

Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 (online) respondents aged 16+, GB

“One of the things I dread most is to be bored, or have nothing to do”

% who agree or agree strongly

Worthwhile downtime

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012

“If I have a spare ten minutes, I’ll often use my phone to carry out chores (e.g. email,

shopping, banking, bill payment)” | % agree strongly or agree

Smart Boredom

Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011

The mobile element of Smart Boredom

“Mobile technology/devices mean that I can always keep myself busy/entertained wherever I

am”

An on-the-go mentality : gaining momentum


“I would be interested in using my mobile phone to carry out routine tasks like banking and

paying bills while on the move” | % who agree or agree strongly


The value of relaxation

“I really value moments when I can just relax”

Trend 8: Consumers have a wealth of choices

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1992 1993 1996 1999 2001 2006 2008 2009

Mobile phone tariffs Number of different tariffs available at the Carphone Warehouse

37

Source: Carphone Warehouse/nVision Base: UK

Number of unique shopping baskets available for various product combinations

38

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Orange juice & chicken pieces

Milk & bread Tea & bread Cereal & washing powder/liquid

Source: nVision Fieldwork, March 2009

Number of television channels available 1990 - 2004

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sky

multichannel

package

CH 5 Digital TV

Source: nVision, UK

Even a bigger wardrobe can add complications

o “In my wardrobe, I had (in the fifties) my everyday clothes,

skirts, sweaters and blouses, and my Sunday clothes, one

coat, two pairs of shoes and a best dress” (Woman, AB, 70s)

Compare this with a 20 year old woman today:

o “I have so many clothes, I’ve got nowhere to put them …but

I’ve still got nothing to wear!” (Woman AB, 20)

If you went to Starbucks and got a different drink every weekday, how long before you would have to have a drink for a second time?

If you went to Starbucks and got a different drink every weekday, how long before you would have to have a drink for a second time?

So 87,000 divided by 5 days a week divided by 52 weeks a year is 334 years!

Trend 9: Consumers don’t focus on anything for long

Continuous Partial Attention

• CPA is described as a new phenomenon of juggling tasks that require a reasonable amount of cognitive engagement o Listening to this talk, scanning your iPhone for work emails and emails

from friends about social arrangements o More complex tasks than multi-tasking

• Linda Stone of Microsoft and Apple describes CPA as a behaviour we have learned to help us cope with an information rich environment: o “In this sleep-deprived, interruption-driven, always-on world, our ability

to focus is compromised. In trying to process a never-ending and ever-widening stream of incoming data, we can put off decisions indefinitely or even burn out.”

• How can you communicate with supporters in a way that doesn’t increase sensory overload?

• Twitter, Snapchat, Instragram, Facebook, Flickr, all drive this trend

Trend 10: Consumers aren’t necessarily rationale

The importance of irrationality

• Charities deal with complex social issues and need a rational focus .… this can translate into the belief that appeals must be completely rational

• Facts in some studies have been shown to be a turn-off for donors o Experiment people asked to talk about babies

(emotions) or to do math calculations (rational) – the latter donated less

o Experiment where people in one group could donate to a fund for medical treatment to save the life of 1 child or the lives of 8 children – people donated twice as much money to help save that one child

• Often an irrational world where brands, celebrities, fashions, emotions rule

• Disproportionate concern e.g a blond child in Greece

• The solution – a ‘Syria Puppy’?

Source: Nicholas Kristof, New York Times, “Save The Darfur Puppy”, 9th May 2007

(non)Trend 11: Men will never change!

Responsibility for cleaning, long-term trend

“Thinking about roles and responsibilities in the home, please indicate who is generally in charge of the following. Cleaning/general housework” | 2012

Source: nVision Research | Base: 600-2,970 online respondents married or cohabiting, aged 16+, GB, 2012

Trend 12: The public want to know how their donation is spent

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The public worry as much about how the money is spent as how it is raised

“What are the main factors (if any) that would put you off from giving to a particular charity? (please select up to 5)” Prompted

Base: 1,000 adults 16+, Britain. Source: Charity Awareness Monitor, Mar 11, nfpSynergy 51

Trend 13: The public love charities but aren’t so keen on fundraising

52

53

Door-to-door fundraising and calling people’s homes remain unpopular

“Which of the following best sum up your feelings towards each of the following types of charity fundraising?”

14%

38%

-9%

-9%

-21%

-24%

16%

11%

17%

11%

8%

4%

13%

2%

3%

-12%

-13%

-13%

-26%

-49%

-47%

-29%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Through the radio

Via a cash collection/ collecting tin

Adverts/ leaflets in newspapers/magazines

Online advertising

Through a television advert with a telephone number to call

to donate

Via email

Via an appeal mailing/letter

Via text message through mobile phone

Approached face-to-face on the street by a fundraiser

On the telephone

On your doorstep

I find it very annoying I am happy to be asked to donate in this way

`

Base: 1,000 adults 16+, Britain. Source: Charity Awareness Monitor, Nov 12, nfpSynergy

So how do charities respond to all this?

How are you responding to these trends?

• How do you incorporate recommendations into your marketing?

• Which ages and households do you target?

• How are wealthy people part of your fundraising?

• How do you give donors choice?

• How do you get your message across in 30 seconds?

• How do you respond to endebted donors?

• Can people support you via their mobile?

• How do you let people know their donation is well spent?

• How do you reduce the aggravation of fundraising?

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You can follow me on twitter

@saxtonjoe

or @nfpsynergy If you would like a copy of my slides you can email me on

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