13 terrifying trends that are changing the face of...
TRANSCRIPT
13 terrifying trends that are changing the face of charities
Presentation to IoF Insight in Fundraising Conference November 2013
Trend 1: Baby boomers are special but they won’t last for ever
2
The UK’s ageing society
Source: ONS/nVision | Base: UK
UK population in 2011 and 2020, by age | Thousands
0-15 +830,000
16-26 -740,000
27-38 +1,510,000
39-49 -1,160,000
50-64 +1,230,000
65-89 +1,950,000
Gradual increases in life expectancy
Source: Population Projections, National Statistics/nVision | Base: UK
Projections of expectation of life for men | Years, at birth and selected ages
Trend 2: Wealth is on the rise
The engine of personal wealth : the recent history of Gross Domestic Product in the UK
Source: Oxford Economics/nVision | Base : UK, 2012
In billions, nominal and real GDP. Oxford Economics forecast, October 2012 projection
Composition of household net wealth : homes are the preferred way of investing and saving
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011
£ billion at 2009 prices
Income as affluence : most of the UK falls into the middle income category
Source: HMRC/nVision | Base : UK, 2012
Around one third of British households are
financed by two incomes.
In around one third of these, the woman earns
more than the man.
Number of British income tax payers (thousands) by income category for 2011-2012
Income distribution : often related to household type
Affluence
Source: DWP/ nVision | Base : UK, 2011
Couples without children are most likely to be in the top fifth of income earners
and least likely to be in the bottom fifth.
Distribution of household disposable income by household type | 2011
Trend 3: Consumers are always in touch
Daily use of mobile internet - trend and forecast
Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals 16+, GB, 2013
“Which of these describes how often you have used the internet via your mobile phone in the last 6 months?” | % who have used it “every or nearly every day” or “several times a day” | August 2013 forecast
Social networkers : 80% by 2020
% who are social networkers | See notes for definition
Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,000 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB
Source: nVision/ Eurostat Survey on ICT Usage | Base: All individuals aged 16+, UK
% using the internet at least once a week | nVision forecast
Internet usage forecast : nearly 100% among 16-24s by 2010s
Smartphone ownership : on the increase
Source: Ofcom Technology Tracking Survey/nVision | Base: 2,073 face-to-face respondents, who personally use a mobile phone aged 16+, UK, 2012
% of mobile phone users who own a smartphone | See notes page for question wording
% who access the internet via their mobile phone at least once a week | nVision forecast
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 face-to-face/ 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB
Mobile internet usage : over 85% by 2020
HDTVs : in the ascendancy
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 – 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB
“Which of these do you have in your home or personally? High definition / HD ready TV”
E-readers : in the ascendancy
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000–5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012
“Which of these do you have in your home or personally? An e-reader (e.g. Kindle, Nook, Sony Reader)”
Tablet PCs : in the ascendancy
Source: nVision Research | Base: all individuals aged 16-74, GB, 2012
“Which of these do you have in your home or personally? A tablet PC (e.g. iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab, BlackBerry PlayBook)”
The always-connected mentality
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000–5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012
“I never turn my mobile phone off” | % who agree or agree strongly
Trend 4: Recommendations are on the rise
The importance of recommendations for HNWIs
“If a friend or family member recommends a product or service to me I am much more likely to
buy it” | % who strongly or slightly agree | 2012
Source: HNW Consortium/nVision Research/Future Foundation | Base: 1,500 online respondents aged 18+, GB, 2012
“I use social networking sites to pass on recommendations of products and services to friends and family” | Among social networkers | 2013
Source: nVision Research | Base: 3,670 online respondents who use social networking sites, aged 16+, GB, 2013
Passing on recommendations via social networks
Trend 5: Debt drives consumers
Individuals’ outstanding unsecured debt
Source: Bank of England/nVision, UK, 2013
£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total unsecured debt
Credit card debt
Non-credit card unsecured debt
Quarterly, seasonally adjusted, in millions | Data up to Q3 2013
Student population and the number of graduates : both have seen large increases over the last decade Figures in 000’s | 2012
Source: CBI/nVision | Base: 694 employers, UK, 2012
Trend 6: Houses still rule our wealth
“My main property reflects my financial success” Among HNWIs | 2012
Source: HNW Consortium/Future Foundation | Base: 1,500 online respondents aged 18+, GB, 2012
Property preferences among HNWIs
Highest wealth bracket
• A safe neighbourhood
• Large reception rooms
• Ensuite bedrooms
• Large private garden/grounds
• Privacy
Young & urban
• Close to transport links
• Close to work
• Safe neighbourhood
• How secure the property is
• Allocated parking
65+
• Safe neighbourhood
• Ensuite bedrooms
• Privacy
• Large reception rooms
• Large private grounds/garden
Those with kids
• Safe neighbourhood
• Proximity to schools
• Large private grounds/garden
• Large reception rooms
• Outside space
Source: HNW Consortium/Future Foundation | Base: 1,500 online respondents aged 18+, GB, 2012
Trend 7: Consumers can sidestep boredom!
The quest for worthwhile activity : over 50% say that they dread moments of boredom
Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 (online) respondents aged 16+, GB
“One of the things I dread most is to be bored, or have nothing to do”
% who agree or agree strongly
Worthwhile downtime
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012
“If I have a spare ten minutes, I’ll often use my phone to carry out chores (e.g. email,
shopping, banking, bill payment)” | % agree strongly or agree
Smart Boredom
Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011
The mobile element of Smart Boredom
“Mobile technology/devices mean that I can always keep myself busy/entertained wherever I
am”
An on-the-go mentality : gaining momentum
Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012
“I would be interested in using my mobile phone to carry out routine tasks like banking and
paying bills while on the move” | % who agree or agree strongly
Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011
The value of relaxation
“I really value moments when I can just relax”
Trend 8: Consumers have a wealth of choices
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1992 1993 1996 1999 2001 2006 2008 2009
Mobile phone tariffs Number of different tariffs available at the Carphone Warehouse
37
Source: Carphone Warehouse/nVision Base: UK
Number of unique shopping baskets available for various product combinations
38
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Orange juice & chicken pieces
Milk & bread Tea & bread Cereal & washing powder/liquid
Source: nVision Fieldwork, March 2009
Number of television channels available 1990 - 2004
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sky
multichannel
package
CH 5 Digital TV
Source: nVision, UK
Even a bigger wardrobe can add complications
o “In my wardrobe, I had (in the fifties) my everyday clothes,
skirts, sweaters and blouses, and my Sunday clothes, one
coat, two pairs of shoes and a best dress” (Woman, AB, 70s)
Compare this with a 20 year old woman today:
o “I have so many clothes, I’ve got nowhere to put them …but
I’ve still got nothing to wear!” (Woman AB, 20)
If you went to Starbucks and got a different drink every weekday, how long before you would have to have a drink for a second time?
42
If you went to Starbucks and got a different drink every weekday, how long before you would have to have a drink for a second time?
So 87,000 divided by 5 days a week divided by 52 weeks a year is 334 years!
Trend 9: Consumers don’t focus on anything for long
Continuous Partial Attention
• CPA is described as a new phenomenon of juggling tasks that require a reasonable amount of cognitive engagement o Listening to this talk, scanning your iPhone for work emails and emails
from friends about social arrangements o More complex tasks than multi-tasking
• Linda Stone of Microsoft and Apple describes CPA as a behaviour we have learned to help us cope with an information rich environment: o “In this sleep-deprived, interruption-driven, always-on world, our ability
to focus is compromised. In trying to process a never-ending and ever-widening stream of incoming data, we can put off decisions indefinitely or even burn out.”
• How can you communicate with supporters in a way that doesn’t increase sensory overload?
• Twitter, Snapchat, Instragram, Facebook, Flickr, all drive this trend
Trend 10: Consumers aren’t necessarily rationale
The importance of irrationality
• Charities deal with complex social issues and need a rational focus .… this can translate into the belief that appeals must be completely rational
• Facts in some studies have been shown to be a turn-off for donors o Experiment people asked to talk about babies
(emotions) or to do math calculations (rational) – the latter donated less
o Experiment where people in one group could donate to a fund for medical treatment to save the life of 1 child or the lives of 8 children – people donated twice as much money to help save that one child
• Often an irrational world where brands, celebrities, fashions, emotions rule
• Disproportionate concern e.g a blond child in Greece
• The solution – a ‘Syria Puppy’?
Source: Nicholas Kristof, New York Times, “Save The Darfur Puppy”, 9th May 2007
(non)Trend 11: Men will never change!
Responsibility for cleaning, long-term trend
“Thinking about roles and responsibilities in the home, please indicate who is generally in charge of the following. Cleaning/general housework” | 2012
Source: nVision Research | Base: 600-2,970 online respondents married or cohabiting, aged 16+, GB, 2012
Trend 12: The public want to know how their donation is spent
50
The public worry as much about how the money is spent as how it is raised
“What are the main factors (if any) that would put you off from giving to a particular charity? (please select up to 5)” Prompted
Base: 1,000 adults 16+, Britain. Source: Charity Awareness Monitor, Mar 11, nfpSynergy 51
Trend 13: The public love charities but aren’t so keen on fundraising
52
53
Door-to-door fundraising and calling people’s homes remain unpopular
“Which of the following best sum up your feelings towards each of the following types of charity fundraising?”
14%
38%
-9%
-9%
-21%
-24%
16%
11%
17%
11%
8%
4%
13%
2%
3%
-12%
-13%
-13%
-26%
-49%
-47%
-29%
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Through the radio
Via a cash collection/ collecting tin
Adverts/ leaflets in newspapers/magazines
Online advertising
Through a television advert with a telephone number to call
to donate
Via email
Via an appeal mailing/letter
Via text message through mobile phone
Approached face-to-face on the street by a fundraiser
On the telephone
On your doorstep
I find it very annoying I am happy to be asked to donate in this way
`
Base: 1,000 adults 16+, Britain. Source: Charity Awareness Monitor, Nov 12, nfpSynergy
So how do charities respond to all this?
How are you responding to these trends?
• How do you incorporate recommendations into your marketing?
• Which ages and households do you target?
• How are wealthy people part of your fundraising?
• How do you give donors choice?
• How do you get your message across in 30 seconds?
• How do you respond to endebted donors?
• Can people support you via their mobile?
• How do you let people know their donation is well spent?
• How do you reduce the aggravation of fundraising?
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You can follow me on twitter
@saxtonjoe
or @nfpsynergy If you would like a copy of my slides you can email me on
[email protected] or give me your card