14 may 2020 results review 2qfy20 siemens - 2qfy20 - hsie...14 may 2020 results review 2qfy20...

9
14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Headwinds remain We maintain REDUCE on Siemens India Ltd. (SIL) with a TP of Rs 1,104/sh (35x SIL Mar-22E EPS). The decline in Revenues across the businesses is primarily due to deferred offtake by customers and slow-down in short-cycle business owing to COVID-19 headwinds and continued weaker demand in large infrastructure projects. Lower revenue led to negative operating leverage and crack in margin across all segments except POC which saw benefits of cost rationalization impact in previous years. Weak financial performance: SIL delivered Revenue/EBIDTA/APAT miss of 11.6/34/34%. EBITDA margins came at 8.3% (275bps miss). Employees wage hikes was effected from 2QFY20 and also other expenses had Rs 500mn+ impact of forex loss. The combined cost increase led to EBIDTA margins crack by 300bps. Order backlog stood at Rs 125.5bn which is healthy and maintained at last 4 quarters average of Rs 125bn. Navigating through COVID-19 crisis: Post the complete lockdown in last week of Mar-20, SIL has shut all its factories, project sites and offices. This significantly impacted 2QFY20 revenues. SIL has resumed limited operations in six factories with another two expected to resume operations this week. Whilst short cycle orders headwinds remain, SIL is seeing heightened interest from clients on digitalization solutions to save costs and increase productivity. Social distancing is also driving these inquiries. Hiving of the Mechanical Drives Business: Siemens AG has made an announcement to integrate Portfolio Companies wind energy generation unit into Flender and subsequently publicly list the company via spin-off. SIL board has received a request from Siemens AG to consider the proposal of divesting the POC Mechanical drives business to subsidiary of Siemens AG. SIL board has in principle agreed to sell the mechanical drives business at a fair consideration (to be determined). Mechanical drives contributed 5% to FY19 revenue (~Rs 6,482mn) and 54% of POC segment revenue. EBIT margins for POC was 1.3/(7.1)% for FY18/19 and lower than SIL margins. Large non wind mechanical drives and motors will continue to be part of SIL POC business. Sale of less profitable business augurs well for SIL. SIL will face near to mid-term head winds on weak Govt/Private capex as businesses conserve cash and slow down capex on back of COVID-19 led disruption. Global growth contraction will result in lower exports and INR depreciation will make imports costlier. Tailwinds like digitalization opportunities and strong net cash Rs 45.8bn are priced in at current punchy valuations. Multiple re-rating is contingent on capex recovery. We maintain REDUCE on SIL. Key risks (1) Faster than expected Private/Government capex recovery, (2) Fiscal stimulus leading to recovery in private investments, and (3) Strong uptick in digitalization. Financial summary (Rs mn, Sep YE) 2Q FY20 2Q FY19 YoY (%) 1Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Revenues 28,201 35,496 (20.6) 26,686 5.7 1,36,838 1,08,610 1,29,920 1,42,140 EBITDA 2,336 4,105 (43.1) 3,365 (30.6) 14,757 10,010 13,046 15,163 APAT 1,721 2,808 (38.7) 2,627 (34.5) 11,520 7,646 10,291 12,164 Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.8 7.9 (38.7) 7.4 (34.5) 32.4 21.5 28.9 34.2 P/E (x) 32.3 48.7 36.2 30.6 EV / EBITDA (x) 21.9 32.5 24.9 21.0 RoE (%) 13.3 8.3 10.6 11.7 Source: Company, HSIE Research REDUCE CMP (as on 13 May 2020) Rs 1,045 Target Price Rs 1,104 NIFTY 9,384 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating Reduce Reduce Price Target Rs 1,104 Rs 1,104 EBITDA % FY21E FY22E - - KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code SIEM IN No. of Shares (mn) 356 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 372/4,940 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 859 52 Week high / low Rs1,717/947 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (26.4) (36.1) (0.6) Relative (%) (3.6) (15.9) 13.1 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 75.0 75.0 FIs & Local MFs 9.90 10.20 FIIs 4.31 4.21 Public & Others 10.79 10.59 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA [email protected] +91-22-6171-7317 Rohan Rustagi [email protected] +91-22-3021-7355

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Page 1: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20

Siemens

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Headwinds remain

We maintain REDUCE on Siemens India Ltd. (SIL) with a TP of Rs 1,104/sh

(35x SIL Mar-22E EPS). The decline in Revenues across the businesses is

primarily due to deferred offtake by customers and slow-down in short-cycle

business owing to COVID-19 headwinds and continued weaker demand in

large infrastructure projects. Lower revenue led to negative operating leverage

and crack in margin across all segments except POC which saw benefits of

cost rationalization impact in previous years.

Weak financial performance: SIL delivered Revenue/EBIDTA/APAT miss

of 11.6/34/34%. EBITDA margins came at 8.3% (275bps miss). Employees

wage hikes was effected from 2QFY20 and also other expenses had Rs

500mn+ impact of forex loss. The combined cost increase led to EBIDTA

margins crack by 300bps. Order backlog stood at Rs 125.5bn which is

healthy and maintained at last 4 quarters average of Rs 125bn.

Navigating through COVID-19 crisis: Post the complete lockdown in last

week of Mar-20, SIL has shut all its factories, project sites and offices. This

significantly impacted 2QFY20 revenues. SIL has resumed limited

operations in six factories with another two expected to resume operations

this week. Whilst short cycle orders headwinds remain, SIL is seeing

heightened interest from clients on digitalization solutions to save costs and

increase productivity. Social distancing is also driving these inquiries.

Hiving of the Mechanical Drives Business: Siemens AG has made an

announcement to integrate Portfolio Companies wind energy generation

unit into Flender and subsequently publicly list the company via spin-off.

SIL board has received a request from Siemens AG to consider the proposal

of divesting the POC Mechanical drives business to subsidiary of Siemens

AG. SIL board has in principle agreed to sell the mechanical drives business

at a fair consideration (to be determined). Mechanical drives contributed 5%

to FY19 revenue (~Rs 6,482mn) and 54% of POC segment revenue. EBIT

margins for POC was 1.3/(7.1)% for FY18/19 and lower than SIL margins.

Large non wind mechanical drives and motors will continue to be part of

SIL POC business. Sale of less profitable business augurs well for SIL.

SIL will face near to mid-term head winds on weak Govt/Private capex as

businesses conserve cash and slow down capex on back of COVID-19 led

disruption. Global growth contraction will result in lower exports and

INR depreciation will make imports costlier. Tailwinds like digitalization

opportunities and strong net cash Rs 45.8bn are priced in at current

punchy valuations. Multiple re-rating is contingent on capex recovery. We

maintain REDUCE on SIL. Key risks (1) Faster than expected

Private/Government capex recovery, (2) Fiscal stimulus leading to

recovery in private investments, and (3) Strong uptick in digitalization.

Financial summary

(Rs mn, Sep YE) 2Q

FY20

2Q

FY19

YoY

(%)

1Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 28,201 35,496 (20.6) 26,686 5.7 1,36,838 1,08,610 1,29,920 1,42,140

EBITDA 2,336 4,105 (43.1) 3,365 (30.6) 14,757 10,010 13,046 15,163

APAT 1,721 2,808 (38.7) 2,627 (34.5) 11,520 7,646 10,291 12,164

Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.8 7.9 (38.7) 7.4 (34.5) 32.4 21.5 28.9 34.2

P/E (x)

32.3 48.7 36.2 30.6

EV / EBITDA (x)

21.9 32.5 24.9 21.0

RoE (%)

13.3 8.3 10.6 11.7

Source: Company, HSIE Research

REDUCE

CMP (as on 13 May 2020) Rs 1,045

Target Price Rs 1,104

NIFTY 9,384

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating Reduce Reduce

Price Target Rs 1,104 Rs 1,104

EBITDA % FY21E FY22E

- -

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code SIEM IN

No. of Shares (mn) 356

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 372/4,940

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 859

52 Week high / low Rs1,717/947

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (26.4) (36.1) (0.6)

Relative (%) (3.6) (15.9) 13.1

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-19 Mar-20

Promoters 75.0 75.0

FIs & Local MFs 9.90 10.20

FIIs 4.31 4.21

Public & Others 10.79 10.59

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7317

Rohan Rustagi

[email protected]

+91-22-3021-7355

Page 2: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

Page | 2

Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

Quarterly Financials Snapshot - Standalone

Rs mn 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ (%) 1HFY20 1HFY19 YoY (%)

Net Sales 28,201 35,496 (20.6) 26,686 5.7 54,887 63,567 (13.7)

Material Cost 17,652 24,403 (27.7) 16,744 5.4 34,396 42,847 (19.7)

Employee Cost 4,314 4,235 1.9 3,961 8.9 8,275 8,623 (4.0)

Other Expenses 3,899 2,753 41.6 2,616 49.0 6,515 4,927 32.2

EBITDA 2,336 4,105 (43.1) 3,365 (30.6) 5,701 7,170 (20.5)

Depreciation 708 571 24.0 611 15.9 1,319 1,103 19.6

EBIT 1,628 3,534 (53.9) 2,754 (40.9) 4,382 6,067 (27.8)

Interest 111 24 362.5 77 44.2 188 26 623.1

Other Income (Incl. EO) 806 830 (2.9) 855 (5.7) 1,661 1,707 (2.7)

PBT 2,323 4,340 (46.5) 3,532 (34.2) 5,855 7,748 (24.4)

Tax 602 1,532 (60.7) 905 (33.5) 1,507 2,660 (43.3)

RPAT 1,721 2,808 (38.7) 2,627 (34.5) 4,348 5,088 (14.5)

EO Items

-

- -

APAT 1,721 2,808 (38.7) 2,627 (34.5) 4,348 5,088 (14.5)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Margin Analysis Margin Analysis

(as % sales) 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (bps) 1QFY20 QoQ (bps) 1HFY20 1HFY19 YoY (bps)

Material Cost (%) 62.6 68.7 (615.5) 62.7 (15.1) 62.7 67.4 (473.8)

Employee Cost (%) 15.3 11.9 336.6 14.8 45.4 15.1 13.6 151.1

Other Expenses (%) 13.8 7.8 607.0 9.8 402.3 11.9 7.8 411.9

EBITDA Margin (%) 8.3 11.6 (328.1) 12.6 (432.6) 10.4 11.3 (89.3)

Tax rate (%) 25.9 35.3 (938.5) 25.6 29.2 25.7 34.3 (859.3)

APAT Margin (%) 6.1 7.9 (180.8) 9.8 (374.1) 7.9 8.0 (8.2)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Standalone Segmental Revenue

Rs mn 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ(%)

Revenues (Rs mn)

Gas and Power 10,267 12,588 (18.4) 8,886 15.5

Smart infrastructure 7,745 9,958 (22.2) 7,590 2.0

Mobility 2,378 3,380 (29.6) 2,085 14.1

Digital Industries 5,267 7,009 (24.9) 6,001 (12.2)

Portfolio of Companies 2,910 3,004 (3.1) 2,484 17.1

Others 243 331 (26.6) 157 54.8

Total (Ex intersegment) 28,810 36,270 (20.6) 27,203 5.9

EBIT (Rs mn)

Gas and Power 887 1,603 (44.7) 974 (8.9)

Smart infrastructure 26 1,000 (97.4) 744 (96.5)

Mobility 271 610 (55.6) 236 14.8

Digital Industries 263 505 (47.9) 630 (58.3)

Portfolio of Companies 174 -203 (185.7) 132 31.8

Others 7 14 (50.0) 38 (81.6)

Total (Ex intersegment) 1,628 3,529 (53.9) 2,754 (40.9)

EBIT margins (%)

Gas and Power 8.6 12.7 (410) 11.0 (232)

Smart infrastructure 0.3 10.0 (971) 9.8 (947)

Mobility 11.4 18.0 (665) 11.3 8

Digital Industries 5.0 7.2 (221) 10.5 (550)

Portfolio of Companies 6.0 -6.8 1,274 5.3 67

Others 2.9 4.2 (135) 24.2 (2,132)

Total 5.7 9.7 (408) 10.1 (447)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Revenue – Rs 28.2bn

(11.6% miss). EBITDA – Rs

2.3bn (34% miss) and

margin of 8.3% (275bps

miss)

Other opex (as % sales)

expanded 607/402bps

YoY/QoQ, while Employee

expenses expanded by

336/45 bps YoY/QoQ,

which was partly offset by

Material expenses

contraction by 615/15bps

Employees wage hikes was

effected from 2QFY20 and

also other expenses had Rs

500mn+ impact of forex

loss. The combined cost

increase led to EBIDTA

margins crack by 300bps

Other income at Rs 0.81bn

(-2.9/-5.7% YoY) includes

no exceptional item as

such

APAT: Rs 1.7bn (-39/-34%

YoY/QoQ, 34% miss)

The decline in Revenues

across the businesses is

primarily due to deferred

offtake by customers and

slow-down in short-cycle

business related to

COVID-19 as well as

continued weaker demand

in large infrastructure

projects

Negative oplev led to crack

in margin across all

segments except POC

which saw cost

rationalization impact in

previous years

Page 3: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

Page | 3

Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

2QFY20 Segmental EBIT

Source : Company, HSIE Research; GP – Gas and Power, SI: Smart Infrastructure DI – Digital

Industries, MO – Mobility, POC –Portfolio of Companies

2QFY20 Segmental Margins (%)

Source : Company, HSIE Research; GP – Gas and Power, SI: Smart Infrastructure DI – Digital

Industries, MO – Mobility, POC –Portfolio of Companies

Quarterly Segmental EBIT Margins Trend

% 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20

Gas and Power 10.4 19.3 12.7 13.6 10.8 11.0 8.6

Smart infrastructure 7.0 9.9 10.0 7.8 9.3 9.8 0.3

Mobility 15.6 (9.1) 18.0 11.9 10.5 11.3 11.4

Digital Industries 6.4 2.5 7.2 6.7 7.8 10.5 5.0

Portfolio of Companies 6.3 (11.0) (6.8) (5.9) (6.2) 5.3 6.0

Others 33.6 (3.2) 4.2 66.9 4.2 24.2 2.9

Total 9.0 8.8 9.7 9.3 8.3 10.1 5.7

Source : Company, HSIE Research

The company has shown a

408/447bps YoY/QoQ

decline in EBIT margins

EBIT margin (0.3%) for the

Smart Infra segment saw

the sharpest decline of

9.7/9.5% YoY/QoQ

Siemens AG has made an

announcement to integrate

POC unit wind energy

generation into Flender

and subsequently publicly

list the company via spin-

off. SIL board has received

a request from Siemens

AG to consider the

proposal of divesting the

POC Mechanical drives

business to subsidiary of

Siemens AG

SIL board has in principle

agreed to sell the

mechanical drives

business at fair

consideration. Mechanical

drives contributed 5% to

FY19 revenue (~Rs

6,482mn) and 54% of POC

segment revenue. EBIT

margins for POC was

1.3/(7.1)% for FY18/19 and

lower than SIL margins

Large non wind

mechanical drives and

motors will continue to be

part of SIL POC business

887

26

263 271

7

174

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

GP SI DI MO Others POC

EBIT (Rs mn) - LHS Margin (%) - RHS

11.4 6.0 3.4 1.6 4.2 0.6

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

GP SI MO DI POC Others

Cap. Employed (Rs mn) - LHS EBIT (Rs bn) - RHS

Page 4: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

Page | 4

Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

Capital Employed – 2QFY20 (Rs 89.3bn)

Source : Company, HSIE Research; GP – Gas and Power, SI: Smart Infrastructure DI – Digital

Industries, MO – Mobility, POC –Portfolio of Companies

Quarterly Order Book Movement (Rs bn)

Source : Company, HSIE Research

Change in Estimates

Standalone

Rs Mn

FY20E FY21E FY22E

Old Revised % Chg Old Revised % Chg Old Revised % Chg

Net Sales (Rs bn) 1,08,610 1,08,610 0.00 1,29,920 1,29,920 0.00 1,42,140 1,42,140 0.00

EBITDA (Rs bn) 10,010 10,010 0.00 13,046 13,046 0.00 15,163 15,163 0.00

EBIDTA Margin (%) 9.2 9.2 0.00 10.0 10.0 0.00 10.7 10.7 0.00

Adj PAT (Rs bn) 7,646 7,646 0.00 10,291 10,291 0.00 12,164 12,164 0.00

AEPS (Rs) 21.5 21.5 0.00 28.9 28.9 0.00 34.2 34.2 0.00

TP (Rs/share) 1,104 1,104 0.00

Source : HSIE Research

We estimate the company

would have secured orders

worth Rs 29.7bn during

the quarter (-18%/-6%

YoY/QoQ)

Post our estimates cut in

earnings preview note we

maintain our estimates

SIL has partially resumed

operation and is seeing

heightened interest from

clients for digitalization

solutions to save costs

and increase productivity

Unallocated

64%

GP

20%

SI

7%

MO

3%

DI

2%

Portfolio of

Companies

4%

Others

1%

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

112

117

122

127

132

1Q

FY

18

2Q

FY

18

3Q

FY

18

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

Book - RHS Inflow - LHS Revenue - LHS

Page 5: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

Page | 5

Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

Outlook and valuation

REDUCE Rating – Maintain Target Price of Rs 1,104/sh

While SIL is well placed to monetize its strength in digitalization of

Manufacturing/Smart Infra, we feel the positives are well captured in the

current valuations. A prolonged delay in capex recovery or private

investments can also dampen the inflows.

SIL board of directors at the meeting held on 21st Feb 2018 had in

principle agreed to sell Mobility and Mechanical drives business to

Siemens AG Germany. Subsequently the deal with Alstom was rejected

by European Competition Commission. However, the transaction for

Mobility has been put on a back burner for the time being. Board has now

agreed to sell SIL's Mechanical Drives business to a subsidiary, for which

consideration and terms are yet to be finalized. We await more clarity

from management on the same, though it’s margin are subpar vs SIL.

We value Siemens’ standalone operations at 35x Mar-FY22E earnings

and arrive at a TP of Rs 1,104/sh. With COVID-19 led disruptions in

supply chain and lack luster capex demand, we maintain REDUCE.

Maintain REDUCE with a

TP of Rs 1,104/sh (35x

Mar-FY22E EPS)

Page 6: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

Page | 6

Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

Financials Standalone Income Statement

Year ending September FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 1,08,094 1,10,148 1,27,251 1,36,838 1,08,610 1,29,920 1,42,140

Growth (%) 2.8 1.9 15.5 7.5 (20.6) 19.6 9.4

Material Expenses 71,812 73,504 85,864 93,230 70,539 86,365 94,850

Employee Expenses 14,139 13,926 14,487 16,036 16,509 17,162 18,080

Other Operating Expenses 11,940 12,205 13,739 12,815 11,551 13,348 14,047

EBIDTA 10,203 10,512 13,161 14,757 10,010 13,046 15,163

EBIDTA (%) 9.4 9.5 10.3 10.8 9.2 10.0 10.7

EBIDTA Growth (%) 4.8 3.0 25.2 12.1 (32.2) 30.3 16.2

Depreciation 2,263 1,967 1,967 2,173 2,315 2,476 2,598

EBIT 7,940 8,546 11,194 12,584 7,696 10,571 12,566

Other Income (Incl. EO Items) 31,568 8,222 2,800 3,946 2,763 3,278 3,793

Interest 91 77 82 114 88 95 103

PBT 39,417 16,691 13,912 16,416 10,371 13,753 16,256

Tax 10,091 5,355 4,973 5,547 2,724 3,462 4,092

RPAT 29,326 11,336 8,939 10,869 7,646 10,291 12,164

EO items (net of tax) (22,824) (4,425) - 651 - - -

APAT 6,502 6,911 8,939 11,520 7,646 10,291 12,164

APAT Growth (%) 12.3 6.3 29.3 28.9 (33.6) 34.6 18.2

EPS 18 19.4 25.1 32.4 21.5 28.9 34.2

EPS Growth (%) 12.3 6.3 29.3 28.9 (33.6) 34.6 18.2

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Standalone Balance Sheet

Year ending September FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 712 712 712 712 712 712 712

Reserves 67,496 76,335 82,342 89,724 93,449 99,471 1,06,939

Total Shareholders Funds 68,208 77,047 83,054 90,436 94,161 1,00,183 1,07,651

Total Debt - - - - - - -

Other Non Current Liabilities 2,394 2,573 2,750 3,110 3,421 3,421 3,421

Deferred Taxes (3,351) (2,442) (2,665) (2,410) (2,410) (2,410) (2,410)

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 67,250 77,178 83,139 91,136 95,172 1,01,194 1,08,662

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 13,052 13,344 13,514 11,904 13,104 12,629 12,031

CWIP 791 1,430 624 583 583 583 583

Investments 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

Other Non Current Assets 8,632 10,855 15,935 12,568 13,825 15,207 16,728

Total Non-current Assets 23,025 26,179 30,623 25,605 28,062 28,969 29,892

Inventories 9,993 10,165 11,389 10,950 9,856 11,831 12,993

Debtors 30,059 34,156 36,504 38,089 32,278 38,660 42,296

Cash & bank balances 35,094 40,713 36,457 48,913 46,902 46,787 53,084

Other Current Assets 18,017 17,576 24,854 26,137 27,940 29,337 30,804

Total Current Assets 93,163 1,02,610 1,09,204 1,24,089 1,16,977 1,26,615 1,39,177

Creditors 21,920 26,556 30,303 32,890 24,157 29,577 32,483

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 27,019 25,054 26,385 25,668 25,709 24,812 27,924

Total Current Liabilities 48,939 51,611 56,688 58,558 49,867 54,389 60,407

Net Current Assets 44,224 50,999 52,516 65,531 67,111 72,225 78,770

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 67,250 77,178 83,139 91,136 95,172 1,01,194 1,08,662

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page 7: 14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens - 2QFY20 - HSIE...14 May 2020 Results Review 2QFY20 Siemens HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  & Thomson Reuters

Page | 7

Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

Standalone Cash Flow Year ending September FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PBT 39,416 16,691 13,912 16,416 10,371 13,753 16,256

Non-operating & EO items (31,474) (6,826) (1,345) (4,720) (2,763) (3,278) (3,793)

Interest expenses 91 77 82 114 88 95 103

Depreciation 2,264 1,966 1,967 2,173 2,315 2,476 2,598

Working Capital Change (1,720) 1,744 (8,361) 4,452 (4,536) (6,613) (1,768)

Tax paid (3,493) (8,114) (5,834) (6,130) (2,724) (3,462) (4,092)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 5,084 5,538 421 12,305 2,750 2,971 9,303

Capex (2,874) 3,289 (1,788) (336) (3,515) (2,000) (2,000)

Free cash flow (FCF) 2,210 8,827 (1,367) 11,969 (765) 971 7,303

Investments 26,721 (2,747) (2,475) (13,516) - - -

Non operating income 1,327 2,137 2,691 3,340 2,763 3,278 3,793

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 25,174 2,679 (1,572) (10,512) (752) 1,278 1,793

Share capital Issuance - - - - - - -

Dividend payment (16,073) (2,572) (3,000) (3,005) (3,921) (4,270) (4,697)

Debt Issuance - - - - - - -

Interest expenses (50) (26) (54) (108) (88) (95) (103)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (16,123) (2,598) (3,054) (3,113) (4,009) (4,365) (4,799)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 14,135 5,619 (4,205) (1,320) (2,011) (116) 6,297

Opening Cash & Equivalents 20,959 35,094 40,713 36,457 48,913 46,902 46,787

Closing Cash & Equivalents 35,094 40,713 36,457 48,913 46,902 46,787 53,084

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Key Ratios Year ending September FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 33.6 33.3 32.5 31.9 35.1 33.5 33.3

EBITDA Margin 9.4 9.5 10.3 10.8 9.2 10.0 10.7

EBIT Margin 7.3 7.8 8.8 9.2 7.1 8.1 8.8

APAT Margin 6.0 6.3 7.0 8.4 7.0 7.9 8.6

RoE 10.9 9.5 11.2 13.3 8.3 10.6 11.7

Core RoCE 21.6 18.6 18.7 20.3 13.7 16.7 18.4

RoCE 11.0 9.6 11.2 13.4 8.4 10.7 11.8

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 25.6 32.1 35.7 33.8 26.3 25.2 25.2

Asset Turnover (x) 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.7 2.8 3.2 3.3

Inventory (days) 34 34 33 29 33 33 33

Debtors (days) 101 113 105 102 108 109 109

Payables (days) 74 88 87 88 81 83 83

Cash Conversion (days) 61 59 50 43 60 59 59

Other Current Assets (days) 61 58 71 70 94 82 79

Other Current Liab (days) 91 83 76 68 86 70 72

Net Working Capital Cycle (Days) 31 34 46 44 68 71 66

Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net D/E (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

Interest Coverage 87.7 110.8 136.5 110.4 87.4 111.2 122.4

PER SHARE DATA

EPS (Rs/sh) 18.3 19.4 25.1 32.4 21.5 28.9 34.2

CEPS (Rs/sh) 24.6 24.9 30.6 38.5 28.0 35.9 41.5

DPS (Rs/sh) 45.1 7.2 8.4 8.4 11.0 12.0 13.2

BV (Rs/sh) 192 216 233 254 264 281 302

VALUATION

P/E 57.2 53.8 41.6 32.3 48.7 36.2 30.6

P/BV 5.5 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5

EV/EBITDA 33.0 31.5 25.5 21.9 32.5 24.9 21.0

OCF/EV (%) 1.5 1.7 0.1 3.8 0.8 0.9 2.9

FCF/EV (%) 0.7 2.7 (0.4) 3.7 (0.2) 0.3 2.3

FCFE/Market Cap (%) 0.6 2.4 (0.4) 3.2 (0.2) 0.2 1.9

Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

17-May-19 1,130 NEU 1,165

29-May-19 1,262 NEU 1,165

11-Jul-19 1,236 NEU 1,165

8-Aug-19 1,101 NEU 1,197

22-Sep-19 1,328 NEU 1,280

10-Oct-19 1,572 NEU 1,463

22-Nov-19 1,544 NEU 1,463

10-Jan-20 1,510 NEU 1,463

25-Jan-20 1,625 NEU 1,463

12-Feb-20 1,496 NEU 1,463

2-Mar-20 1,304 ADD 1,533

24-Apr-20 1,147 REDUCE 1,104

5-May-20 1,090 REDUCE 1,104

14-May-20 1,045 REDUCE 1,104

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

Ma

y-1

9

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Siemens TP

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Siemens: Results Review 2QFY20

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