15-780: graduate ai

108
15-780: Graduate AI Lecture 14. Spatial Search; Uncertainty Geoff Gordon (this lecture) Tuomas Sandholm TAs Sam Ganzfried, Byron Boots 1

Upload: others

Post on 31-Oct-2021

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 15-780: Graduate AI

15-780: Graduate AILecture 14. Spatial Search;

Uncertainty Geoff Gordon (this lecture)

Tuomas SandholmTAs Sam Ganzfried, Byron Boots

1

Page 2: 15-780: Graduate AI

Spatial Planning

2

Page 3: 15-780: Graduate AI

Plans in Space…

A* can be used for many thingsHere, A* for spatial planning (in contrast to, e.g., jobshop scheduling)

Optimal Solution End-effector Trajectory Probability of Obstacle Appearing Probability of Obstacle Appearing

Solu

tion

Cos

t

Stat

eEx

pans

ions

Figure 10: Environment used in our second experiment, along with the optimal solution and the end-effector trajectory (withoutany dynamic obstacles). Also shown are the solution cost of the path traversed and the number of states expanded by each ofthe three algorithms compared.

other words, by adding a fixed value to the key of each newstate placed on the queue, the old states are given a rela-tive advantage in their queue placement. When a state ispopped off the queue whose key value is not in line withthe current bias term, it is placed back on the queue with anupdated key value. The intuition is that only a small num-ber of the states previously on the queue may ever makeit to the top, so it can be much more efficient to only re-order the ones that do. We can use the same idea when εdecreases (from εo to εn, say) to increase the bias term by(εo − εn) · maxs∈OPEN h(sstart, s). The key value of eachstate becomeskey(s) = [min(g(s), rhs(s)) + ε · h(sstart, s) + bias,

min(g(s), rhs(s))].By using the maximum heuristic value present in the queueto update the bias term, we are guaranteeing that each statealready on the queue will be at least as elevated on the queueas it should be relative to the new states being added. It isfuture work to implement this approach but it appears to bea promising modification.

Finally, it may be possible to reduce the effect of un-derconsistent states in our repair of previous solution paths.With the current version of AD*, underconsistent states needto be placed on the queue with a key value that uses an un-inflated heuristic value. This is because they could reside onthe old solution path and their true effect on the start statemay be much more than the inflated heuristic would suggest.This means, however, that the underconsistent states quicklyrise to the top of the queue and are processed before manyoverconsistent states. At times, these underconsistent statesmay not have any effect on the value of the start state (forinstance when they do not reside upon the current solutionpath). We are currently looking into ways of reducing thenumber of underconsistent states examined, using ideas veryrecently developed (Ferguson & Stentz 2005). This couldprove very useful in the current framework, where much ofthe processing is done on underconsistent states that may notturn out to have any bearing on the solution.

ConclusionsWe have presented Anytime Dynamic A*, a heuristic-based,anytime replanning algorithm able to efficiently generate so-

lutions to complex, dynamic path planning problems. Thealgorithm works by continually decreasing a suboptimal-ity bound on its solution, reusing previous search efforts asmuch as possible. When changes in the environment areencountered, it is able to repair its previous solution incre-mentally. Our experiments and application of the algorithmto two real-world robotic systems have shown it to be a valu-able addition to the family of heuristic-based path planningalgorithms, and a useful tool in practise.

AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank Sven Koenig for fruitfuldiscussions. This work was partially sponsored by DARPA’sMARS program. Dave Ferguson is supported in part by anNSF Graduate Research Fellowship.

ReferencesBarbehenn, M., and Hutchinson, S. 1995. Efficient searchand hierarchical motion planning by dynamically maintain-ing single-source shortest path trees. IEEE Transactions onRobotics and Automation 11(2):198–214.Barto, A.; Bradtke, S.; and Singh, S. 1995. Learning toAct Using Real-Time Dynamic Programming. ArtificialIntelligence 72:81–138.Bonet, B., and Geffner, H. 2001. Planning as heuristicsearch. Artificial Intelligence 129(1-2):5–33.Chakrabarti, P.; Ghosh, S.; and DeSarkar, S. 1988. Ad-missibility of AO* when heuristics overestimate. ArtificialIntelligence 34:97–113.Dean, T., and Boddy, M. 1988. An analysis of time-dependent planning. In Proceedings of the National Con-ference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI).Edelkamp, S. 2001. Planning with pattern databases. InProceedings of the European Conference on Planning.Ersson, T., and Hu, X. 2001. Path planning and navigationof mobile robots in unknown environments. In Proceedingsof the IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Robotsand Systems (IROS).Ferguson, D., and Stentz, A. 2005. The Delayed D* Algo-rithm for Efficient Path Replanning. In Proceedings of the

3

Page 4: 15-780: Graduate AI

What’s wrong w/ A* guarantees?

(optimality) A* finds a solution of cost g*(efficiency) A* expands no nodes that have f(node) > g*

4

Page 5: 15-780: Graduate AI

What’s wrong with A*?

Discretized space into tiny little chunksa few degrees rotation of a jointLots of states ⇒ lots of states w/ f ≤ g*

Discretized actions tooone joint at a time, discrete angles

Results in jagged paths

Optimal Solution End-effector Trajectory Probability of Obstacle Appearing Probability of Obstacle Appearing

Solu

tion

Cos

t

Stat

eEx

pans

ions

Figure 10: Environment used in our second experiment, along with the optimal solution and the end-effector trajectory (withoutany dynamic obstacles). Also shown are the solution cost of the path traversed and the number of states expanded by each ofthe three algorithms compared.

other words, by adding a fixed value to the key of each newstate placed on the queue, the old states are given a rela-tive advantage in their queue placement. When a state ispopped off the queue whose key value is not in line withthe current bias term, it is placed back on the queue with anupdated key value. The intuition is that only a small num-ber of the states previously on the queue may ever makeit to the top, so it can be much more efficient to only re-order the ones that do. We can use the same idea when εdecreases (from εo to εn, say) to increase the bias term by(εo − εn) · maxs∈OPEN h(sstart, s). The key value of eachstate becomeskey(s) = [min(g(s), rhs(s)) + ε · h(sstart, s) + bias,

min(g(s), rhs(s))].By using the maximum heuristic value present in the queueto update the bias term, we are guaranteeing that each statealready on the queue will be at least as elevated on the queueas it should be relative to the new states being added. It isfuture work to implement this approach but it appears to bea promising modification.

Finally, it may be possible to reduce the effect of un-derconsistent states in our repair of previous solution paths.With the current version of AD*, underconsistent states needto be placed on the queue with a key value that uses an un-inflated heuristic value. This is because they could reside onthe old solution path and their true effect on the start statemay be much more than the inflated heuristic would suggest.This means, however, that the underconsistent states quicklyrise to the top of the queue and are processed before manyoverconsistent states. At times, these underconsistent statesmay not have any effect on the value of the start state (forinstance when they do not reside upon the current solutionpath). We are currently looking into ways of reducing thenumber of underconsistent states examined, using ideas veryrecently developed (Ferguson & Stentz 2005). This couldprove very useful in the current framework, where much ofthe processing is done on underconsistent states that may notturn out to have any bearing on the solution.

ConclusionsWe have presented Anytime Dynamic A*, a heuristic-based,anytime replanning algorithm able to efficiently generate so-

lutions to complex, dynamic path planning problems. Thealgorithm works by continually decreasing a suboptimal-ity bound on its solution, reusing previous search efforts asmuch as possible. When changes in the environment areencountered, it is able to repair its previous solution incre-mentally. Our experiments and application of the algorithmto two real-world robotic systems have shown it to be a valu-able addition to the family of heuristic-based path planningalgorithms, and a useful tool in practise.

AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank Sven Koenig for fruitfuldiscussions. This work was partially sponsored by DARPA’sMARS program. Dave Ferguson is supported in part by anNSF Graduate Research Fellowship.

ReferencesBarbehenn, M., and Hutchinson, S. 1995. Efficient searchand hierarchical motion planning by dynamically maintain-ing single-source shortest path trees. IEEE Transactions onRobotics and Automation 11(2):198–214.Barto, A.; Bradtke, S.; and Singh, S. 1995. Learning toAct Using Real-Time Dynamic Programming. ArtificialIntelligence 72:81–138.Bonet, B., and Geffner, H. 2001. Planning as heuristicsearch. Artificial Intelligence 129(1-2):5–33.Chakrabarti, P.; Ghosh, S.; and DeSarkar, S. 1988. Ad-missibility of AO* when heuristics overestimate. ArtificialIntelligence 34:97–113.Dean, T., and Boddy, M. 1988. An analysis of time-dependent planning. In Proceedings of the National Con-ference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI).Edelkamp, S. 2001. Planning with pattern databases. InProceedings of the European Conference on Planning.Ersson, T., and Hu, X. 2001. Path planning and navigationof mobile robots in unknown environments. In Proceedingsof the IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Robotsand Systems (IROS).Ferguson, D., and Stentz, A. 2005. The Delayed D* Algo-rithm for Efficient Path Replanning. In Proceedings of the

5

Page 6: 15-780: Graduate AI

What’s wrong with A*?

6

Page 7: 15-780: Graduate AI

Snapshot of A*

7

Page 8: 15-780: Graduate AI

Wouldn’t it be nice…

… if we could break things up based more on the real geometry of the world?Robot Motion Planning by Jean-Claude Latombe

8

Page 9: 15-780: Graduate AI

Physical system

A moderate number of real-valued coordinatesDeterministic, continuous dynamicsContinuous goal set (or a few pieces)Cost = time, work, torque, …

9

Page 10: 15-780: Graduate AI

Typical physical system

10

Page 11: 15-780: Graduate AI

A kinematic chain

Rigid links connected by jointsrevolute or prismatic

Configurationq = (q1, q2, …)

qi = angle or length of joint iDimension of q = “degrees of freedom”

11

Page 12: 15-780: Graduate AI

Mobile robots

Translating in space = 2 dof

12

Page 13: 15-780: Graduate AI

More mobility

Translation + rotation = 3 dof

13

Page 14: 15-780: Graduate AI

Q: How many dofs?

3d translation & rotation

14

Page 15: 15-780: Graduate AI

credit: Andrew M

oore

15

Page 16: 15-780: Graduate AI

Robot kinematic motion planning

Now let’s add obstacles

16

Page 17: 15-780: Graduate AI

Configuration space

For any configuration q, can test whether it intersects obstaclesSet of legal configs is “configuration space” C (a subset of a dof-dimensional vector space) Path is a continuous function from [0,1] into C with q(0) = qs and q(1) = qg

17

Page 18: 15-780: Graduate AI

Note: dynamic planning

Includes inertia as well as configurationq, qHarder, since twice as many dofsMore later…

18

Page 19: 15-780: Graduate AI

C-space example

19

Page 20: 15-780: Graduate AI

More C-space examples

20

Page 21: 15-780: Graduate AI

Another C-space example

image: J Kuffner

21

Page 22: 15-780: Graduate AI

Topology of C-space

Topology of C-space can be something other than the familiar Euclidean worldE.g. set of angles = unit circle = SO(2)

not [0, 2π) !

Ball & socket joint (3d angle) ⊆ unit sphere = SO(3)

22

Page 23: 15-780: Graduate AI

Topology example

Compare L to R: 2 planar angles v. one solid angle — both 2 dof (and neither the same as Euclidean 2-space)

23

Page 24: 15-780: Graduate AI

Back to planning

Complaint with A* was that it didn’t break up space intelligentlyHow might we do better?Lots of roboticists have given lots of answers!

24

Page 25: 15-780: Graduate AI

Shortest path in C-space

25

Page 26: 15-780: Graduate AI

Shortest path in C-space

26

Page 27: 15-780: Graduate AI

Shortest path

Suppose a planar polygonal C-spaceShortest path in C-space is a sequence of line segmentsEach segment’s ends are either start or goal or one of the vertices in C-spaceIn 3-d or higher, might lie on edge, face, hyperface, …

27

Page 28: 15-780: Graduate AI

Visibility graph

http://www.cse.psu.edu/~rsharma/robotics/notes/notes2.html

28

Page 29: 15-780: Graduate AI

Naive algorithm

For i = 1 … pointsFor j = 1 … points

included = tFor k = 1 … edges

if segment ij intersects edge kincluded = f

29

Page 30: 15-780: Graduate AI

Complexity

Naive algorithm is O(n3) in planar C-spaceFor algorithms that run faster, O(n2) and O(k + n log n), see [Latombe, pg 157]

k = number of edges that wind up in visibility graph

Once we have graph, search it!

30

Page 31: 15-780: Graduate AI

Discussion of visibility graph

Good: finds shortest pathBad: complex C-space yields long runtime, even if problem is easy

get my 23-dof manipulator to move 1mm when nearest obstacle is 1m

Bad: no margin for error

31

Page 32: 15-780: Graduate AI

Getting bigger margins

Could just pad obstaclesbut how much is enough? might make infeasible…

What if we try to stay as far away from obstacles as possible?

32

Page 33: 15-780: Graduate AI

Voronoi graph

!1.5 !1 !0.5 0 0.5

!1

!0.5

0

0.5

1

33

Page 34: 15-780: Graduate AI

Voronoi graph

Given a set of point obstaclesFind all places that are equidistant from two or more of themResult: network of line segmentsCalled Voronoi graphEach line stays as far away as possible from two obstacles while still going between them

34

Page 35: 15-780: Graduate AI

Voronoi from polygonal C-space

35

Page 36: 15-780: Graduate AI

Voronoi from polygonal C-space

Set of points which are equidistant from 2 or more closest points on border of C-spacePolygonal C-space in 2d yields lines & parabolas intersecting at points

lines from 2 pointsparabolas from line & point

36

Page 37: 15-780: Graduate AI

Voronoi method for planning

Compute Voronoi diagram of C-spaceGo straight from start to nearest point on diagramPlan within diagram to get near goal (e.g., with A*)Go straight to goal

37

Page 38: 15-780: Graduate AI

Discussion of Voronoi

Good: stays far away from obstaclesBad: assumes polygonsBad: gets kind of hard in higher dimensions (but see Howie Choset’s web page and book)

!"#$%&'()*+,- ./*0-1'(+,1/(0,23,4,5631(5*78,32(49*:((;<=<()62-9(+/*(

>**0->8(?60-@(/,0(3*1-0(*3(3*1-0(?8(A6358(B:61*

C*D(+,1/(E7-3,32

!"#$%&'()*+,- ./*0-1'(+,1/(0,23,4,5631(5*78,32(49*:((;<=<()62-9(+/*(

>**0->8(?60-@(/,0(3*1-0(*3(3*1-0(?8(A6358(B:61*

C*D(+,1/(E7-3,32

38

Page 39: 15-780: Graduate AI

Voronoi discussion

Bad: kind of gun-shy about obstacles

39

Page 40: 15-780: Graduate AI

(Approximate) cell decompositions

40

Page 41: 15-780: Graduate AI

Planning algorithm

Lay down a grid in C-spaceDelete cells that intersect obstaclesConnect neighborsA*If no path, double resolution and try again

never know when we’re done

41

Page 42: 15-780: Graduate AI

Approximate cell decomposition

This decomposition is what we were using for A* in examples from aboveWorks pretty well except:

need high resolution near obstacleswant low res away from obstacles

42

Page 43: 15-780: Graduate AI

Fix: variable resolution

Lay down a coarse gridSplit cells that intersect obstacle borders

empty cells goodfull cells also don’t need splitting

Stop at fine resolutionData structure: quadtree

43

Page 44: 15-780: Graduate AI

44

Page 45: 15-780: Graduate AI

45

Page 46: 15-780: Graduate AI

46

Page 47: 15-780: Graduate AI

47

Page 48: 15-780: Graduate AI

Discussion

Works pretty well, except:Still don’t know when to stopWon’t find shortest pathStill doesn’t really scale to high-d

48

Page 49: 15-780: Graduate AI

Better yet

Adaptive decompositionSplit only cells that actually make a difference

are on path from startmake a difference to our policy

49

Page 50: 15-780: Graduate AI

An adaptive splitter: parti-game

G

Start

Goal

G

G

G

50

Page 51: 15-780: Graduate AI

9dof planar arm

Fixed

base

Start

Goal

85 partitions total

51

Page 52: 15-780: Graduate AI

Parti-game paper

Andrew Moore and Chris Atkeson. The Parti-game Algorithm for Variable Resolution Reinforcement Learning in Multidimensional State-spaces http://www.autonlab.org/autonweb/14699.html

52

Page 53: 15-780: Graduate AI

Randomness in search

53

Page 54: 15-780: Graduate AI

Rapidly-exploring Random Trees

Put landmarks into C-spaceBreak up C-space into Voronoi regions around landmarksPut landmarks densely only if high resolution is needed to find a pathWill not guarantee optimal path (*)

54

Page 55: 15-780: Graduate AI

RRT assumptions

RANDOM_CONFIGsamples from C-space

EXTEND(q, q’)local controller, heads toward q’ from qstops before hitting obstacle

FIND_NEAREST(q, Q)searches current tree Q for point near q

55

Page 56: 15-780: Graduate AI

Path Planning with RRTs

[ Kuffner & LaValle , ICRA’00]

RRT = Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree

BUILT_RRT(qinit) { T = qinit for k = 1 to K { qrand = RANDOM_CONFIG() EXTEND(T, qrand); }}

EXTEND(T, q) { qnear = FIND_NEAREST(q, T) qnew = EXTEND(qnear, q) T = T + (qnear, qnew)}

56

Page 57: 15-780: Graduate AI

Path Planning with RRTs

qinit

[ Kuffner & LaValle , ICRA’00]

RRT = Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree

BUILT_RRT(qinit) { T = qinit for k = 1 to K { qrand = RANDOM_CONFIG() EXTEND(T, qrand); }}

EXTEND(T, q) { qnear = FIND_NEAREST(q, T) qnew = EXTEND(qnear, q) T = T + (qnear, qnew)}

56

Page 58: 15-780: Graduate AI

Path Planning with RRTs

qinitqrand

[ Kuffner & LaValle , ICRA’00]

RRT = Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree

BUILT_RRT(qinit) { T = qinit for k = 1 to K { qrand = RANDOM_CONFIG() EXTEND(T, qrand); }}

EXTEND(T, q) { qnear = FIND_NEAREST(q, T) qnew = EXTEND(qnear, q) T = T + (qnear, qnew)}

56

Page 59: 15-780: Graduate AI

Path Planning with RRTs

qnearqinitqrand

[ Kuffner & LaValle , ICRA’00]

RRT = Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree

BUILT_RRT(qinit) { T = qinit for k = 1 to K { qrand = RANDOM_CONFIG() EXTEND(T, qrand); }}

EXTEND(T, q) { qnear = FIND_NEAREST(q, T) qnew = EXTEND(qnear, q) T = T + (qnear, qnew)}

56

Page 60: 15-780: Graduate AI

Path Planning with RRTs

qnear

qnew

qinitqrand

[ Kuffner & LaValle , ICRA’00]

RRT = Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree

BUILT_RRT(qinit) { T = qinit for k = 1 to K { qrand = RANDOM_CONFIG() EXTEND(T, qrand); }}

EXTEND(T, q) { qnear = FIND_NEAREST(q, T) qnew = EXTEND(qnear, q) T = T + (qnear, qnew)}

56

Page 61: 15-780: Graduate AI

RRT example

Plan

ar h

olon

omic

robo

t

57

Page 62: 15-780: Graduate AI

RRTs explore coarse to fine

Tend to break up large Voronoi regions

higher probability of qrand being in them

Limiting distribution of vertices given by RANDOM_CONFIG

as RRT grows, probability that qrand is reachable with local controller (and so immediately becomes a new vertex) approaches 1

58

Page 63: 15-780: Graduate AI

59

Page 64: 15-780: Graduate AI

60

Page 65: 15-780: Graduate AI

61

Page 66: 15-780: Graduate AI

62

Page 67: 15-780: Graduate AI

63

Page 68: 15-780: Graduate AI

RRT example

64

Page 69: 15-780: Graduate AI

RRT for a car (3 dof)

65

Page 70: 15-780: Graduate AI

Planning with RRTs

Build RRT from start until we add a node that can reach goal using local controller(Unique) path: root → last node → goal

Optional: cross-link tree by testing local controller, search within tree using A*Optional: grow forward and backward

66

Page 71: 15-780: Graduate AI

67

Page 72: 15-780: Graduate AI

68

Page 73: 15-780: Graduate AI

69

Page 74: 15-780: Graduate AI

70

Page 75: 15-780: Graduate AI

71

Page 76: 15-780: Graduate AI

What you should know

C-spaceWays of splitting up C-space

Visibility graphVoronoiCell decompositionVariable resolution or adaptive cells (quadtree, parti-game)

RRTs72

Page 77: 15-780: Graduate AI

AI + Uncertainty

73

Page 78: 15-780: Graduate AI

Uncertainty is ubiquitous

Random outcomes (coin flip, who’s behind the door, …)Incomplete observations (occlusion, sensor noise)Behavior of other agents (intentions, observations, goals, beliefs)

74

Page 79: 15-780: Graduate AI

Propositional v. lifted

We’ve talked about both propositional and lifted logical representations

SAT v. FOLCan add uncertainty to bothWe’ll do just propositional; uncertainty in lifted representations is a topic of current research

75

Page 80: 15-780: Graduate AI

Review: probability

76

Page 81: 15-780: Graduate AI

Random variables

Uncertain analog of propositions in SAT or variables in MILPTomorrow’s weather, change in AAPL stock price, grade on HW4Observations convert random variables into fixed realizations

77

Page 82: 15-780: Graduate AI

Notation

X=x means r.v. X is realized as xP(X=x) means probability of X=x

if clear from context, may omit “X=”instead of P(Weather=rain), just P(rain)

P(X) means a function: x → P(X=x)

P(X=x, Y=y) means probability that both realizations happen simultaneously

78

Page 83: 15-780: Graduate AI

Discrete distributionsW

eath

er

AAPL price A A- B+

A .21 .17 .07

A- .17 .15 .06

B+ .07 .06 .04H

W4

15-780

up same down

sun .09 .15 .06

rain .21 .35 .14

79

Page 84: 15-780: Graduate AI

Joint distribution

Atomic event: a joint realization of all random variables of interestJoint distribution: assigns a probability to each atomic event

Wea

ther

AAPL

up same down

sun .09 .15 .06

rain .21 .35 .14

e = sun, same P(e) = 0.15

80

Page 85: 15-780: Graduate AI

Events

An event is a set of atomic eventsE = { (sun, same), (rain, same) }

P(E) = ∑ P(e) = .15 + .35 = .5

This one is written “AAPL = same”

e ∈ EW

eath

er

AAPL

up same down

sun .09 .15 .06

rain .21 .35 .14

81

Page 86: 15-780: Graduate AI

AND, OR, NOT

For events E, F:E AND F means E ∩ F

E OR F means E ∪ F

NOT E means U – EU is set of all possible joint realizations

82

Page 87: 15-780: Graduate AI

Marginal: eliminating unneeded r.v.sW

eath

er

AAPL price

up same down

sun .09 .15 .06

rain .21 .35 .14

.09 + .15 + .06 = .3

.21 + .35 + .14 = .7

sun 0.3

rain 0.7Wea

ther

83

Page 88: 15-780: Graduate AI

Law of Total Probability

For any X, YP(X) = P(X, Y=y1) + P(X, Y=y2) + …

84

Page 89: 15-780: Graduate AI

Conditional: incorporating observations

A .41

A- .35

B+ .24

15-7

80

A A- B+

A .21 .17 .07

A- .17 .15 .06

B+ .07 .06 .04

HW

4

15-780

P(15-780=A | HW4=B+) = .04 / (.07+.06+.04)85

Page 90: 15-780: Graduate AI

Conditioning

In general, divide a row or column by sumP(X | Y=y) = P(X, Y=y) / P(Y=y)

P(Y=y) is a marginal probability, gotten by row or column sumP(X | Y=y) is a row or column of tableThought experiment: what happens if we condition on an event of zero probability?

86

Page 91: 15-780: Graduate AI

Notation

P(X | Y) is a function: x, y → P(X=x | Y=y)

Expressions are evaluated separately for each realization:

P(X | Y) P(Y) means the function x, y → P(X=x | Y=y) P(Y=y)

87

Page 92: 15-780: Graduate AI

Independence

X and Y are independent if, for all possible values of y, P(X) = P(X | Y=y)

equivalently, for all possible values of x, P(Y) = P(Y | X=x)equivalently, P(X, Y) = P(X) P(Y)

Knowing X or Y gives us no information about the other

88

Page 93: 15-780: Graduate AI

Bayes Rule

For any X, Y, CP(X | Y, C) P(Y | C) = P(Y | X, C) P(X | C)

Simple version (without context)P(X | Y) P(Y) = P(Y | X) P(X)

Proof: both sides are just P(X, Y)P(X | Y) = P(X, Y) / P(Y) (by def’n of conditioning)

89

Page 94: 15-780: Graduate AI

Continuous distributions

What if X is real-valued?Atomic event: (X ≤ x), (X ≥ x)

any* other subset via AND, OR, NOTX=x has zero probability*

P(X=x, Y=y) means lim P(x ≤ X ≤ x+ε, Y = y) / εas ε → 0+

90

Page 95: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factor Graphs

91

Page 96: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factor graphs

Strict generalization of SAT to include uncertaintyFactor graph = (variables, constraints)

variables: set of discrete r.v.sconstraints: set of (possibly) soft or probabilistic constraints called factors or potentials

92

Page 97: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factors

Hard constraint: X + Y ≥ 3Soft constraint: X + Y ≥ 3 is more probable than X + Y < 3, all else equalDomain: set of relevant variables

{X, Y} in this case

93

Page 98: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factors

0 1 20 1 1 1

1 1 1 3

2 1 3 3

X

Y

0 1 20 0 0 0

1 0 0 1

2 0 1 1

X

Y

Hard Soft

94

Page 99: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factor graphs

Variables and factors connected according to domains

95

Page 100: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factor graphs

Omit single-argument factors from graph to reduce clutter

96

Page 101: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factor graphs: probability model

97

Page 102: 15-780: Graduate AI

Normalizing constant

Also called partition function

98

Page 103: 15-780: Graduate AI

Factors

Ra O W Φ1

T T T 3T T F 1T F T 3T F F 3F T T 3F T F 3F F T 3F F F 3

W M Ru Φ2T T T 3T T F 1T F T 3T F F 3F T T 3F T F 3F F T 3F F F 3

99

Page 104: 15-780: Graduate AI

Unary factors

Ra Φ3

T 1

F 2

W Φ4

T 1

F 1

O Φ5

T 5

F 2

M Φ6

T 10

F 1

Ru Φ7

T 1

F 3100

Page 105: 15-780: Graduate AI

Inference Qs

Is Z > 0?What is P(E)?What is P(E1 | E2)?Sample a random configuration according to P(.) or P(. | E)Hard part: taking sums of Φ (such as Z)

101

Page 106: 15-780: Graduate AI

Example

What is P(T, T, T, T, T)?

102

Page 107: 15-780: Graduate AI

Example

What is P(Rusty=T | Rains=T)?This is P(Rusty=T, Rains=T) / P(Rains=T)P(Rains) is a marginal of P(…)So is P(Rusty, Rains)Note: Z cancels, but still have to sum lots of entries to get each marginal

103

Page 108: 15-780: Graduate AI

Relationship to SAT, ILP

Easy to write a clause or a linear constraint as a factor: 1 if satisfied, 0 o/wFeasibility problem: is Z > 0?

more generally, count satisfying assignments (determine Z)NP or #P complete (respectively)

Sampling problem: return a satisfying assignment uniformly at random

104