15 september,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

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Vol 5.Issue XIV

September 15, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Bangladesh Rice Farmers Face Double

Whammy with Lower Prices and Higher

Supplies

Sep 14, 2015

Bangladesh rice farmers are not happy despite the country achieving record 34.708 million tons

production (milled basis) in FY 2014-15 (July - June) due to prevailing low prices, according to

local sources.

They say the current prices are not even sufficient to cover their production costs. Most of the

farmers are receiving Tk 460 per 40 kilograms (around $145 per ton) for hybrid and high-

yielding varieties, about 20% lesser than the production costs.

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Farmers have been complaining of lower prices since April this year due to increased local

production and higher imports from India. The country reportedly imported about 1.45 million

tons of rice during FY 2014-15, about four times more higher than in 2013-14, despite a record

production due to prevailing low global rice prices, according to the Ministry of Food. They told

local sources that the total availability of rice has crossed the local consumption demand of

around 3 million tons and has put a downward pressure on prices.

Also farmers and traders are mainly concerned that increased imports have lowered demand for

local rice further pushing down the prices. Average price of coarse rice currently stands at

around Tk 30-34 per kilogram (around $377-$428 per ton), compared to around Tk 32-37 per

kilogram (around $402-$465 per ton) in April this year and around Tk 35-38 per kilogram

(around $440-$477 per ton) during the same time last year, according to data from Trading

Corporation of Bangladesh.

They noted that the imposition of 10% duty on rice imports did not provide the desired effect as

the Indian suppliers lowered their rates. They are expecting the current floods that are affecting

some rice growing areas to push up the prices to some extent.

Floods that are a result of heavy rains have damaged more that 260,000 hectares of Aman crop

land, local sources quoted the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE). Farmers are

reportedly encouraged to grow flood-tolerant rice varieties such as BRRI dhan51, BRRI dhan52,

BINA dhan11 and BINA dhan12 to ensure that the production is not impacted.

USDA estimates Bangladesh’s MY 2015-16 (July 2015 – June 2016) milled rice production at

around 35 million tons, slightly up from an estimated 34.5 million tons in MY 2014-15. It

estimates Bangladesh to import around 1.2 million tons of rice in 2015.

USDA Estimates U.S. 2015-16 All Rice

Supplies to Decline on Lower Production

Sep 14, 2015

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In its September World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA

estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies at around 11.95 million tons, down from its last month’s

forecast of 12.63 million tons and down from 12.56 million tons in 2014-15 due to expected

lower production. While U.S. long-grain rice supply estimates are lowered 8.16 million tons, the

U.S. short and medium grain rice supply estimates are increased to 3.71 million tons, from last

month.

USDA estimates U.S. all rice production (milled basis) at around 8.6 million tons, down from

last month's estimate of 9.3 million tons and down from last year's 10.02 million tons due to an

expected reduction in yield. Long-grain rice production is estimated at around 5.96 million tons,

down from last month's estimate of 6.76 million tons; and short- and medium- grain production

is estimated at around 2.63 million tons, up from last month's estimate of 2.54 million tons.

Average yield is estimated at around 8.27 tons per hectare down from last month's estimates of

8.41 tons per hectare and down from last year's 8.52 tons per hectare.

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The agency estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice beginning stocks at around 2.2 million tons, down

from last month's estimates of 2.17 million tons and up from last year's 1.44 million tons. USDA

estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice use at around 10.07 million tons, down from last month's

estimates of around 10.7 million tons due to an estimated decline in domestic & residual use. It

estimates domestic & residual use of all rice at around 5.67 million tons from last month's

estimates of around 5.85 million tons due to an expected decline in supplies. While Long-grain

consumption estimates are lowered to around 4.22 million tons, combined medium- and short-

grain consumption estimates are increased to around 1.45 million tons.

USDA expects U.S. 2015-15 all rice imports to remain unchanged from last month's forecast.

However, it estimates all rice exports at around 4.4 million tons, down from last month's

estimates of 4.85 million tons. While long-grain export estimates are lowered to 2.9 million tons

from last month's 3.36 million tons, estimates for combined medium- and short-grain exports are

kept unchanged. It estimates 2015-16 all rice ending stocks at around 1.88 million tons down

from last month's forecast of 1.92 million tons and down from last year's 1.95 million tons.

Indonesia Rice Prices Surge Due to

Extending Drought Conditions

Sep 14, 2015

Indonesian domestic rice prices are increasing on concerns of lower production due to extending

drought conditions induced by the El Niño weather phenomenon , according to local sources.

Rice prices have increased during the last few weeks in all the rice producing regions, including

West Java, East Java, Central Java, North Sulawesi and Gorontalo.

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the El Niño

weather phenomenon will extend Indonesia’s dry season, which normally takes place between

April and September, until November, and is likely to affect 18 of the country’s 34 provinces.

Meanwhile, the state Logistics Agency Bulog's Procurement Director told local sources that the

agency's rice stocks are also affected by the drought. He noted that farmers are reluctant to sell

their output to the agency and are preferring to store the stocks. Bulog's prices are lower than the

market prices and are not attractive to them, he added.

He, however, noted that Bulog currently has 1.7 million tons of rice, which would be sufficient

to meet the country's consumption demand until the end of this year.

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The government is keen on achieving self-sufficiency in rice production this year and avoid

imports. In the first week of this month, the Indonesian Agriculture Ministry Secretary General

reiterated that the country's rice production is safe despite the on-going dry weather conditions

due to the El Nino weather pattern. He told reporters that the Ministry is expecting a 7% y/y

increase in paddy rice production to around 75.2 million tons in 2015 from around 70 million

tons in 2014.

According to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Indonesia's domestic rice

prices have been increasing since April this year. In August, average rice prices stood at around

10.14 million Rupiah per ton (around $740), up about 12% from their year-ago levels of around

9.06 million Rupiah per ton (around $770) during the same time last year.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices

Continue to Firm as Sellers Stay on Sidelines

Sep 14, 2015

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The U.S. cash market was firmer again today with offers increasing lockstep with the futures

market however many buyers are reluctant to pay these higher prices, especially as the harvest

picks up on Arkansas.

Analysts note that many farmers in Arkansas and Missouri are not sellers at any level as they

wait and assess the size and quality of their crop while news that the U.S. and China are closer to

signing a phytosanitary protocol has many in Louisiana and Mississippi sitting on their hands

waiting to what comes of this agreement.

In the meantime, the USDA estimates that as of September 13th

, 44% of the crop had been

harvested which was 9% ahead of this time last year and on par with the previous 5-year average.

As of now, the USDA estimates that 41% of the rice crop in Arkansas had been harvested

compared to , 10% in California, 94% in Louisiana, 45% in Mississippi, 8% in Missouri, and

93% in Texas.

The USDA estimates that 62% percent of the crop is in good to excellent condition, which was

3% worse than last week and 12% worse than this time last year. As of now, the USDA estimates

that 60% of the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition compared to, 65% in

California, 61% in Louisiana, 74% in Mississippi, 61% in Missouri, and 51% in Texas.

Pakistan Exporters Seek Government

Protection of Rice Export Trade

Sep 14, 2015

A delegation from the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) met with the Prime

Minister last week and presented him a list of demands on behalf of the rice sector, according to

local sources.

The REAP members particularly sought government support in protecting the rice export trade

as it is the highest foreign exchange earner. They noted that revenue from rice exports increased

from around $300 million to a staggering $2 billion during the last 10-12 years. They urged the

government to focus on increasing basmati rice exports to Iran and Saudi Arabia; and increasing

non-basmati rice exports to China, Indonesia and the Philippines. They also sought General

Scheme of Preferences (GSP) status to the rice sector. They demanded that the government

should give direct subsidies to the exporters in order to encourage them to export rice at

competitive prices.

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The delegation urged the government to reduce withholding tax on rice to 0.25% from the

existing 1% as well as withdraw tax on local purchase of rice. They also sought provide certain

concessions, including reduced load-shedding of electricity and zero per cent General Sales Tax,

to rice milling plants. They requested for non-intervention of the Trading Corporation of

Pakistan and Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (Passco) in rice trade.

Finally, they demanded for privatization the Rice Research Institutes (RRI) to enable them to come up

with more rice varieties and innovative technologies, which would in turn help farmers to reduce input

costs and increase yields.

Nepal Rice Traders Seek Government

Intervention to Curb Imports

Sep 14, 2015

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Nepal rice traders and millers are facing a hard time due to increasing rice imports from India,

especially through land borders, according to local sources.

Traders told local sources that Nepal has been flooded with cheap Indian rice since the

government of India has lifted the ban on non-basmati rice exports in September 2011. They

noted that Indian rice is cheaper by about Rs.50-100 per quintal (around $0.46-$0.92 per ton)

compared to domestic rice.

They noted that the local rice output is sufficient to meet 70% of the country's consumption

demand. The remaining 30% can be imported by the government through official shipments.

Since increasing imports are hurting the local rice sector, the traders urged the government to

allow for only required imports to fulfil the 30% deficit in the domestic market.

The traders also noted that the lower agriculture reform charge on rice imports has also

encouraged more imports. They are demanding that the government hike the agriculture reform

charge from the current 8% to 10% to curb imports. They also urged the government to enhance

the existing 5% charge on paddy imports.

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Nepal reportedly imported rice worth Rs.24.75 billion (around $231 million) in the fiscal year

2014-15 (August - July), up about 43% from around Rs.17.26 billion (around $161 million)

during FY 2013-14. The increase is attributed to poor summer harvests. The country's paddy

output has declined by about 258,435 tons or about 5.1% to around 4.78 million tons in this

fiscal year due to a late monsoon and untimely rainfall, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

The Agriculture Ministry's plans to reduce rice import bill by about two-thirds to about Rs.6

billion (around $56 million) in FY 2014-15 has miserably failed, according to experts. They are

expecting the imports to increase in FY 2015-16 as droughts in most of the Tarai districts, the

country’s food basket, have affected paddy transplantation. Rice import value is expected to

cross Rs.40 billion (around $373 million) next fiscal year.

USDA estimates Nepal to import around 400,000 tons of rice in 2015. It estimates Nepal’s MY 2014-15

(October 2014 – September 2015) paddy rice production to decline to about 4.655 million tons (around

3.1 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 5 million tons (around 3.36 million tons, basis milled) in

MY 2013-14

Thailand and Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower

Some of Their Quotes; Other Asian Quotes

Unchanged

Sep 14, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice, 5% broken rice and 25% broken

rice by $5 per ton each to around $350-$360 per ton, $335-$345 per ton and $325-$335 per ton

respectively today. Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton

to around $445-$455 per ton. Other Asian rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345per ton, about $5 per ton lower from around

$340-$350 per ton on Friday and about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at

around $320 - $330 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, unchanged

from Friday and about $60 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $315 - $325

per ton.

25% Broken Rice

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Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $325 - $335 per ton, about a $5 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$340 - $350 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $290 -

$300 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, unchanged from Friday. India

parboiled rice is indicated at around $360- $370 per ton, unchanged from Friday and about $55

per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $415 - $425 per

ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, about $5 per ton

from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $300 - $310 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan

broken sortexed rice shown at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Thailand May Ban Planting for Second Crop

in 2.4 Million Hectares of Rice Land

Sep 14, 2015

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Thailand's Agriculture Minister is likely to impose a ban on second crop planting in about 2.4

million hectares of rice land as intensity of water shortages is higher than expected, according to

Reuters.

He will reportedly intimate the cabinet about his decision on September 15. He told local sources

that by the end of rainy season, on October 31, water levels in reservoirs would reach only 3.6

million cubic meters that are inadequate for farming activity. He may also propose to set uo a

national committee to manage the situation.

The ban would force farmers from giving up rice growing during most of the 2015 crop year, say

local sources. The total unplanted area, including the 139,200 hectares in the main crop season,

would reach around 2.54 million hectares.

He noted that some farmers had ignored government orders and carried out rice farming in the

main crop season. This time, the government is planning instruct all the ministries to involve in

the situation and help farmers in raising alternate income.

However, farmers are disappointed with the government's stance. The Chairman of the Central

Agricultural Committee noted that the decision is a blow to the farmers who are already in

debts.

U.S. & China to Sign Rice Protocol

Agreement

Sep 14, 2015

HOUSTON, Texas (September 14, 2015) – Officials from the United States and the Peoples’

Republic of China will sign a phytosanitary protocol during the week of September 21st when

Chinese President Xi Jinping leads a delegation on an official visit to Washington,

DC. Culminating an effort that reaches back more than 15 years, the US Rice Producers

Association (USRPA) has been pushing to open the Chinese market to U.S. rice.

In those intervening ten years, China has switched from being a rice exporter to (in recent years)

importing two million tons or more of long grain rice. Vietnam has been the origin of most of the

Chinese imports, due to a combination of price, proximity, and quality. The U.S. has not been

permitted to ship to China because rice was not included in the original negotiations that resulted

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in the sale of millions of tons of soybeans and cotton and other grains. That now changes with

the new phytosanitary protocol.

USRPA applied for funding from USDA/FAS under their Emerging Markets Program to travel

to China to determine if there would be demand for U.S. long grain milled rice should it ever be

permitted. Over the years, consumer preferences were recorded and analyzed, and the conclusion

was obvious — rice milled in the United States would be considered a preferred product

deserving of a premium price in the opinion of the growing consumer class in China. In recent

years, medium grain rice from both the South and California has been included in these

consumer surveys, and the result is the same: ―When can we buy it?‖

A number of importers and distributors in China have been identified, and it is likely that the

newly-permitted trade will get off to a fast start. It is not clear how large the trade could become

once the logistics and the commercial terms are perfected, but China could represent a significant

boost to the U.S. rice market, which recently has been slammed by the loss of markets and low-

priced subsidized foreign competition.

―This has been a long and exhaustive process and sometimes that’s the nature of international

market development, while I must compliment the USRPA staff and its board members

including past Chairmen, B.J. Campbell of Missouri and Ray Stoesser of Texas, who along with

officials of the Foreign Agricultural Service and Animal Plant Health Inspection Service of the

USDA, have not hesitated in pursuing this effort that is so important to our rice farming and

milling industry,‖ says Dwight Roberts, President & CEO of the organization. ―Our analysis of

the China market goes back to 1998 when at the time no one thought China would ever be a

significant importer,‖ added Roberts.

Recently elected Chairman, Tommy Turner from El Campo, Texas who has plans to travel next

month to China is excited about the outlook saying, ―our focus has already turned towards

working with the identified Chinese buyers and importers while continuing to conduct additional

promotional surveys of Chinese consumers,‖ while adding, ―this is great news for our farmers

and is a shot in the arm for the market that is so sorely needed."

The US Rice Producers Association, representing rice producers in Arkansas, California,

Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas, is the only national rice producers’ organization

comprised by producers, elected by producers and representing producers in all six rice-

producing states.

Global Rice Quotes

September 15th, 2015

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Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 350-360 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 320-330 ↔

India 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 315-325 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 420-430 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 530-540 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 325-335 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 290-300 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 405-415 ↔

India 25% broken 340-350 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 345-355 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 570-580 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

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Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 810-820 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 445-455 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 305-315 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 335-345 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Continue to Rally on Support

from Firmer Grain Prices and News of

Progress towards Trade with China

Sep 14, 2015

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Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 16.5 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher

at $12.995 per cwt (about $286 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher as a result of

follow-thorough buying following last week’s USDA S&D update; Soybeans closed about 1.1%

higher at $8.8425 per bushel; wheat finished about 3.4% higher at $4.0125 per bushel, and corn

finished the day about 1.7% higher at $3.9350 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded mostly lower Monday as investors weighed mostly negative stock

performance overseas and eyed the Federal Reserve meeting later in the week. The major

averages opened a touch higher but failed hold slight gains. The Dow Jones industrial average

traded about 90 points lower after briefly falling 100 points. The Federal Open Market

Committee is scheduled to meet Wednesday and Thursday and could raise short-term interest

rates for the first time in more than nine years.

No major U.S. economic releases or earnings are due Monday. The week's key data include retail

sales and industrial output for August on Tuesday. Materials fell more than 1% as the greatest

decliner in the S&P 500. The major averages ended last week more than 2 percent higher, with

the Dow Jones industrial average posting its best week since the one ended March 20. The S&P

500 and the Nasdaq composite had their best weeks since the one ended July 17.

European stocks closed narrowly mixed on Monday, following declines in Asian stocks. In

midday trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 75 points, or 0.46%, at 16,360. The

S&P 500 traded down 10 points, or 0.50%, at 1,951, with energy leading nine sectors lower and

utilities the only advancer. The Nasdaq traded down 22 points, or 0.46%, at 4,800. Gold is

trading about 0.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen

trading about 0.1% higher about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Friday, there were 1,106 contracts traded, down from 1,172 contracts traded on Thursday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 268 contracts to 10,338.

15 september,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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