15 signals of a post-covid-19 ‘new normal’ · enhanced regulations re: virus prevention and...

Produced byAn Insights Brief Series

GLOBAL FOOD INDUSTRY

15 Signals of a

Post-COVID-19

lsquoNew Normalrsquo

1

03 Purpose and Approach

05 Global Food Industry Context

06 Impact of Crisis on Consumer Behavior

09 Impact of Crisis on Industry

12 Impact of Crisis on Government Policies

16 15 Signals of a Post-COVID-19 ldquoNew Normalrdquo for the Global Food Industry

26 An Action Plan Towards the ldquoNew Normalrdquo

SummaryTHIS INSIGHTS BRIEF FOCUSES ON WHAT THE POST-COVID-19 ldquoNEW NORMALrdquo WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE GLOBAL FOOD INDUSTRY (1-3 YEARS TIMEFRAME)

Global food supply chain disruption is a top impact of the crisis on industry

Livestock B2B Ingredients Meat amp Poultry Vegetable amp Fruits Cereals

are the most vulnerable representing

Potential winners Germany China other emerging economies

Ensuring food supply is a top impact of the crisis on governments

Based on a segmented impact framework countries most vulnerable within first segment (high incomehigh food import dependent) are

The most acute food supply challenged countries are

GAMBIA YEMEN CONGO

QATAR UAE JAPAN

An action plan towards the ldquonew normalrdquo for food industry and government transitions from current

crisis management mode into three phases of

15 Signals

of Post-COVID-19 ldquonew normalrdquo presented

are divided into

10 identified for the Industry

(led by customer trust and advanced supply chain risk

management) and

5 for Government

(led by advanced food security measures and enhanced regulations)

18 of todayrsquos total global

food consumption ($172 trill) is in the top 5 most severe Covid-19 affected

countries

RETURN REFORM REINVENT

56 ($564 bill) of total food

trade supply globally

SAUDI ARABIA SINGAPORE

215 Signals of a Post-COVID-19 New Normal Global Food Industry copy DinarStandard 2020

PURPOSE AND APPROACH

PURPOSE

Amidst the ensuing mayhem in which all organizations are in a crisis management mode a key strategic question

they are asking is what will the post-COVID-19 ldquonew normalrdquo look like This is the focus of this Insights Briefing

focused on the global food industry

TARGET AUDIENCE Industry Government Investors

APPROACH

This briefing is not looking at the immediate crisis response but is focused squarely on post-COVID-19 scenarios

Our assumption on the timing of a post-COVID-19 environment globally is summer or fall of 2021 and is based

on the majority of health expertsrsquo views of realizing an effective vaccine deployment or major populations reaching

sufficient immunity

As such our ldquoNew normalrdquo timeframe is 1-3 years

This Insights Brief leverages DinarStandardrsquos global research and expert reviews and its global trade investment and

consumer spend data analysis


DISCLAIMERThe reportrsquos data is believed to be correct at the time of publication but this cannot be guaranteed Please note

that the findings conclusions and recommendations that DinarStandard has delivered are based on information

gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources whose accuracy we are not always in a

position to guarantee The findings interpretations and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily

reflect the views of DinarStandard

As such the information contained in this report is intended to provide general information only and should

not be considered as legal or professional advice or a substitute for advice covering any specific situation

DinarStandard specifically disclaims all liability arising out of any reliance placed on this material DinarStandard makes no representations or warranties of any kind

express or implied about the completeness accuracy reliability or suitability of this material for your purposes

DinarStandard 2020 All Rights Reserved


Livestock Veg amp Fruits 324

Cereals 104

AgrInputs 31

B2B Ingredients 68

Animal Rendering 16

Logistics

Food Distrib

Grocery Stores

Restaurants

Fish 153

MeatPoultry 130

Oils amp Fats 81

Beverages 79

Dairy 75

Bakery Cereals Pasta 48

Prepared Meal amp Snacks 32

Soups amp Sauces 27

Sugar Products 16

Syrups Spreads 6

Global Food Industry Context

The global agri-food industry one of the biggest global employers and industry was already going through significant changes and challenges It is in this context summarized here that we evaluate its evolution through to a post-COVID-19 era

Industry Value-Chain amp Sub Sector Exports (2019) $ BILLIONS

Government Regulation amp Enablement

Global Trade Top Exporters (2019)

Agriculture inputs

Logistics Distribution

Intermediate processing

Secondary processing

$129trnTotal exports

globally

Source DinarStandard analysis ITC Trademap World Bank WFP (World Food Program) data

Climate Change

23 of greenhouse gas emissions

78 bn consumers (2020 UN est)

Food wastage

33 to 50of food produced globally is never eaten

Food crisis - acute hunger

135mpeople

Health challengesObesity has tripled since 1975

Consumer trends bull Online groceriesbull Healthy dietsbull Meat consumption

$8 trillion industry value

1 billion people employed

10 of the global

economy (WORLD BANK)

Sustainable farming Automation Protein alternatives BIoplastics Cloud kitchen Food delivery

Food security Industry incentives Healthy diets SafetyQuality Regulations Economic growth

27 of total globally

(ILO)

124USA

84Netherlands

72China

68Brazil

62Germany

49France

46Spain

43Canada

36Italy

35Thailand

$ BILLIONS

TRENDS CHALLENGESKEY


Impact of Crisis on Consumer Behavior

Four significant shifts in food consumption amp two key social concerns

CONCERNS

Grocery Online Grocery Supermarkets Takeout

Delivery QSR Restaurant

Source DinarStandard SHIFTS global research analysis BMI consumer data

Immunity concern = growth in healthy food

Job losses = Essential food focus

Stay-at-home = Boom in Online Groceries

Stay-at-home = More cooking at home

1 2 43

UP UP UP

DOWN

DOWN DOWN

SHIFTS

TOP FOOD CONSUMER SPEND MARKETS ($ BILLIONS 2019 BMI)

923USA

226Indonesia

1539China

203Brazil

219Germany

193France

329Japan

258Russia

179Italy

522India

1 2 3 4COVID-19 SEVERITY LEVEL

Hunger crisis

130madditional at risk of starvation by EOY 2020 (GRFC 2020)

Environment concern Consumers compromising on sustainability

$17trnconsumer spend

amongst top 5 most severe COVID-19 affected countries

18of total globally


This pandemic has dramatically impacted consumer behavior and demand has shifted toward immunity-boosting fresh and functional foodImpact

On social media searches for ldquoimmune systemrdquo have risen by 66 since February1 In Thailand and Singapore conversations around immunity have increased by almost 809 and 488 respectively2

In China 67 of people shopped for fresh and daily necessities more than twice a week during the pandemic 80 said they would pay attention to eating healthily after the pandemic3

In March sales volume for fresh food in Australia was up by 51 year-on-year while fresh food sales at retail grocery stores in the US were up by 34 YOY4

Emerging strategiesUK-based AI firm Spoon Guru launched an Immunity Support TAG built on nutritional expertise Together with tagging and QR-code-scanning technology shoppers will be able to filter immunity-boosting products and easily locate them online and in retail stores5

Given high job losses (estimated 195 million new job losses)6 and general financial uncertainty consumer demand for high-value commodities with longer shelf lives including snacks canned frozen processed and packaged foods has gone up significantly during the pandemic Impact

About four in ten7 US consumers are buying more shelf-stable packaged foods like snacks (42) and canned food (33)8

Packaged mandarin sales in Italy rose over 111 while canned meat sales in the UK rose by 1235 year-on-year in March9

Emerging strategiesPrivate labelling offers greater opportunities to retailers as consumers show increasing willingness to give up national name brands in favor of store brands and private labels10

Immunity concerns increase demand for healthy food

Job losses driving focus on essential food items

1 2Impact of Crisis on Consumer Behavior


Due to the fear of contagion and given stay-at-home restrictions online grocery shopping is experiencing dramatic growth worldwide This ldquoforced experiencerdquo is set to sustain some of its level of growth post-COVID-19Impact

Chinarsquos sales rose to 260 from 215 year-on-year growth in just a month11 while Saudi Arabia saw a spike of 55 from 6 in online sales12

Amazon US had already been growing by 23 YOY rate in online groceries pre-COVID-19 crisis and is building momentum in fresh food and packaged goods13

Emerging strategiesDue to the need to survive several retail grocery stores and restaurants are introducing new offerings Trends like drive-thru and curbside pickup are becoming more prominent Robots are also being used for food preparation and deliveries like the delivery app Meituan Dianping which is using autonomous delivery vehicles in China14

Stay-at-home condition driving boom in online grocery shopping

Another key impact on consumer behavior resulting from stay-at-home restrictions and virus transmission concerns is a huge rise in cooking-at-home This has had a major negative impact on restaurants that have started to closeImpact

US consumer survey shows 60 of people are cooking from scratch and 43 are dining out less15

In March almost all restaurants in the MENA region gradually closed with a 60 decline in customers16

Meal-kit services such as Blue Apron HelloFresh and Sun Basket are reporting a sharp increase in demand as consumers stay home and cook17

Emerging strategies GoustO (UK) a London-based meal-kit service will invest $41 million funding in technology to provide customers with a personalized experience18 Amazon in collaboration with Discoveryrsquos Food Network Kitchen is providing live and on-demand cooking classes across the US19

Stay-at home also driving growth in home cooking



1

Impact of Crisis on Industry

Food supply-chain severely impacted by COVID-19 disruptions

Sub-Sectors Most Vulnerable to COVID-19 Affected Supply-Chain Disruptions

Major global food supply-chain disruptions are being led by by the USA as a result of COVID-19 being particularly impactful there and because of its role as a top global food supplier and exporterImpact

The most vulnerable sectors are Livestock Vegetable amp Fruits B2B Ingredients Meat amp Poultry and Cereals (see chart showing sectors ranked by severity of impact) Top four most impacted sectors represent 56 or $564 bill of total most vulnerable food supply (adjusted down for estimated drop in global trade in 2020)

Emerging strategies Sourcing alternative suppliers is becoming a key mitigation strategy enabling other countries to step in


Livestock Vegetable amp Fruits 2513 USA Brazil China

B2B Ingredients 1305 USA Netherlands Germany

Meat and Poultry 1009 Brazil USA Australia

Cereals 819 USA Argentina Russia

Prepared Meal amp Snacks 247 USA China Netherlands

AgrInputs 238 Netherlands USA Germany

Seasonings Soups amp Sauces 213 China USA India

Animal Rendering 121 USA Peru Australia

Fish and Fish Products 1184 China Norway Vietnam

Oils amp Fats 628 Indonesia Malaysia Netherlands

Beverages 613 Brazil Germany Netherlands

Dairy 582 New Zealand Germany Netherlands

Bakery Cereals Pasta 374 Italy Germany Canada

Sugar Products 120 Germany Belgium Netherlands

Syrups amp Spreads 48 Germany France India

Sub-Sectors Exports Top Exporting Countries (2020 $ BILLIONS) (HIGHLIGHTED FOR COVID-19 CURRENT SEVERITY) MID SCENARIO

Source DinarStandard synthesis and analysis using UN Trademap data 2020 export estimation based on WTO projection of 12-32 (scenario range) drop in global tradeSeverity of COVID-19 based on active cases as of May 12th 2020 as listed on httpswwwworldometersinfocoronavirus

SE

VE

RIT

Y O

F I

MP

AC

T

Supply-chain disruptions

1Employee safety

availability

2Logistics

disruptions

4RestaurantQSRs

severe impact

5Financial viability

3


SHIFTS


2 3 4Employee safety and availability Logistic disruptions Severe impact on dine-in

restaurantsLand maritime and air transport disruption due to lockdowns and border closings are severely affecting food industry logistics Impact

In China limited truck capacities have caused congestion in air freight terminals and warehouses23

There is a shortage of drivers who are willing to cross into hard-hit areas such as Italy while a lack of staff in the factories limits the ability to load cargo onto trucks24

Emerging strategies E-Commerce Chinarsquos e-commerce services providers Alibaba Group Holding JDcom and others are pushing separate initiatives to help revive sales of farm goods25

Blockchain Indiarsquos leading agri-commodities marketplace - Freshstack Technologies announced the adoption of blockchain technology to allow end-to-end digital trading for its 23000 farmers and commodity traders26

The food industry is one of the biggest employers worldwide with its workforce safety severely impacted by the virus Impact

25 of the food produced in Italy relies on over 370000 seasonal workers coming from abroad every year Their unavailability due to border restrictions is a major threat to Europersquos entire farming sector20

Food and accommodation are among the top sectors that have had their workplace affected most drastically by the pandemic reaching 144 million workers globally (ILO)21

Emerging strategies To avoid the risk of spreading the virus governments and health authorities worldwide have urged preventive measures like Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) safe distancing and hygiene practices Tyson Foods is adopting strategies to encourage employees to stay home when sick including short-term disability coverage at 90 of normal pay22

Dine-in restaurants are the worst hit segment of the food industry resulting in survival mode measures business closuresand layoffs With the rise in the cook-at-home trend some level of negative impact may be sustained post-COVID-19 Impact

Consumers are expected to cut spending in restaurants by more than 50 driven by a rise in hygiene concerns stay-at-home trends and mass gathering restrictions27 In the US restaurants have laid off around 91 of their hourly workforce28

Emerging strategies Restaurmar Mixing of restaurants and grocery stores Theodorersquos introduced Tedrsquos Grocer to sell online groceries29

Cloud-kitchens are gaining prominence30

Restaurants in Dubai have collaborated to launch their own app providing free deliveries31



0 10 20-10-20-30-405Financial viability and investments

Food industry sub-sector stock price impact during COVID-19 period

Given major disruptions some food industry segments are suffering financially and are forced to pursue various survival strategies while offering investors unique opportunities Impact

Across the food industry based on the stock performance of major listed food companies worldwide during the COVID-19 period so far the Food distribution sector (-37) Farm products (-23) and Agri Inputs (-17) have lost the most value Meanwhile Grocery stores (+16) are the stand-outs Among top listed food companies Beyond Meat Inc (+43) during the analysis period and iFresh (+69) signal the opportunities available in alternative protein and fresh online grocery space

Emerging strategies MampA At least six FampB industry deals in Mar 2020 with the latest high-value deal during32 FoodTech investments are gaining prominence33

Retail collaborations Carrefour and Uber Eats join forces to provide home deliveries (France) McDonaldrsquos amp Aldi mutualize their staff for a limited period allowing McDonaldrsquos employees to help Aldirsquos understaffed teams34


01Packaged Foods

Food Distribution-375

Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79

Beverages - Non-Alc-63

Confectioners-3

Agricultural Inputs-168

Farm Products-232

Source Finviz data Stock prices compared between Dec 3rd 2019 to May 8th 2020 Stocks were chosen for analysis based on highest market capitalization within that sub-sector The data for overall industries are based on Finvizrsquos universe of 7655 major listed stocks from around the world

SELECT LEADING COMPANIES STOCK PERFORMANCEKEY

Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69

Nestle SA Switzerland 5

Danone SA France -15

Kraft Heinz Co USA -4

Beyond Meat Inc USA 43

Tyson Foods Inc USA -47

Archer Daniels M USA -18

Bunge Ltd USA -45

Fresh Del Monte USA -30

McDonaldrsquos Corp USA -7

Yum China Inc China 9

Dominorsquos Pizza Inc USA 23

Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54

US Foods Holding USA -104


1

Impact of Crisis on Government Policies

Ensuring food supply to the countryFood security concerns are at the forefront for governments However distinct countries face different levels of food supply concernsImpact

Plagues of locusts are exasperating food security and impacting food production in at least 23 countries35

Staple food price spikes are burdening low-income countries In Nigeria the cost of rice rose to more than 30 in March36 265 million people (est) could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2020 up from 135 million people before the crisis37

Emerging strategies Agriculture Ministers from the G20 emphasize the importance of free trade for food commodities They advised only imposing export barriers in emergencies38 Saudi Arabia has introduced initiatives worth $665 million to support farmers and facilitate food import39

Agritech helps countries become self-sufficient The UAE is building vertical farming and RampD facilities to harvest vegetables where $100 million has been invested across four companies40 Source DinarStandard analysis

Ensuring food supply to the

country

1Supporting the

industry for safeguarding

economic and job impact

2Protecting people against hunger

malnutrition

4Regulation

compliance for industry to increase safety against virus

contamination

3

Food Supply Security Framework

LOW FOOD PRODUCTION HIGH

LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH


GROUP B1IMPORT DEPENDENT BUT FOOD SECURE

GROUP B2MOST VULNERABLE LEAST DEVELOPED FOOD INSECURE

GROUP A1MAJOR FOOD PRODUCERSEXPORTERS FOOD SECURE

GROUP A2HIGH-POTENTIAL EXPORTERS FOOD SECURITY AT RISK

Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS


2Supporting the food industry to safeguard economy and jobsCountries that are highly dependent on the food sector for their economies are having to provide significant support for the industryrsquos survival and resilienceImpact

Pakistan India Brazil Ecuador and Turkey have food production as the highest share of their GDP presenting a high level of vulnerability to the overall economy More than 90 of the global informal economy which comprises the most vulnerable in the labour market belongs to the agriculture sector41

Emerging strategies Italyrsquos planned $283 billion stimulus plan to help laid-off workers and to fund companies has around $100 million reserved specifically for the agricultural or fishing sector42 Malaysiarsquos stimulus package includes $230m to increase domestic production of agriculture fisheries and livestock products43

USDArsquos $19 billion Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) entails $16 billion in farmer payments and $3 billion for commodity purchases44

World Bank Group is partnering with 15 agritech startups in Kenya to improvise food supply chain for farmers45


Source DinarStandard analysis ITC Trade map data

Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10

FOOD EXPORTS AS OF GDP

2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10

FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA AS GDP PER CAPITA2019 DATA


3 4Policies for industry to increase safety against virus

Protecting people against hunger and malnutrition

To contain COVID-19 disruptions governments are imposing strict policies to keep the food supply chain and its players protected from virus contaminationImpact

China imposed a total ban on the trade of live wild animals for food a billion-dollar industry and placed stricter regulations on refrigerated and frozen food46

The UAE has established COVID-19 testing facilities at Zayed Port and Khalifa Port to protect the health of supply chain personnel47 The FDA (US) has temporarily stopped onsite audit requirements for supplier verification to protect investigatorsrsquo safety Instead sampling and testing or review of food safety records are being pursued48

Emerging strategies Wilhelmsen the largest martime operator has built a COVID-19 Global Port Restrictions Map which relays various restrictions on logistics and ports worldwide allowing supply-chain players to manage trade efficiently49

Impact The number of people facing acute hunger could potentially double to 265 million in 55 countries (totalling more than a quarter of a billion people) as a direct impact of COVID-1950

Nationwide closures of schools in more than 160 countries have impacted over 87 of the worldrsquos student population This implies millions of children miss out on school meals that were their only source of nutrition51

Emerging strategies Self-help groups for Indian women are running community kitchens to help provide fresh meals and support the most vulnerable families They are supported by the Ministry of Rural Development and the World Bank52

WhyHunger a charity helping distribute nutritious food created an open-source and crowd-sourced interactive map of free meal sites across the United States53


With the COVID-19 pandemic hunger and malnutrition have become dramatically acute with lower income daily-wage earners suffering the most as a result of various lockdown measures



15 Signals of a Post-COVID-19 ldquoNew Normalrdquo for the Global Food Industry

Manufacturing Automation

6Advanced supply-chain

risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech

10VALUE-CHAIN RELATED

For Industry

Healthy food boost

1Alternative proteins

2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED

The 15 signals presented are based on our analysis of changing consumer industry and government trends that we see becoming part of post-Covid-19 ldquonew normalrdquo 10 are identified for the Industry and 5 for Government

For Government

Advanced food security measures

11Enhanced regulations

12PPP partnership

13Social safety net

14International coordination

15



Consumption of healthy food (fresh and immunity-driving packaged food) could be much higher as a new post- COVID-19 normal This would be as a result of the distressing global experience with the virus and anticipation of such virusesrsquo regular occurrence

Alternative protein consumption (plant-based amp food-tech alternatives to animal protein) could jump to a new post-COVID-19 normalThis would be due to meat supply-chain disruptions havingexposed first-time consumers to alternative protein options with some indications that this alternative consumption will continue

For Industry

2

1


Online grocery shopping could maintain its current high status as a new post-COVID-19 normalThere are strong signals that the online grocery shopping jump will be sustained as customers get used to its convenience and new linked innovations come into the market

Cooking-at-home growth could become a modestly sustained trend post- COVID-19This is because of new consumer familiarity and habits being formed from the joy from the convenience of home-made healthy eating considerations


For Industry

4

3


Advanced automated manufacturing and logistics (robotics IoT blockchain-enabled traceability) could also be a new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the end-customer demand for transparency and non-contamination of products as well as the recent experience of dependency on human resources in areas that can be automated


For Industry

6

5New measures to build customer trust viz-a-viz virus protection (new SOPs tracking verification) could become a new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the end-customer demand for transparency and non-contamination of products companies throughout the value chain will aim for this badge of verification to build trust


More common work-from-home setup for select roles within industry could be a new post-COVID-19 normalAfter the lsquoforced experiencersquo of enabling work through home companies will be able to introduce (or use more frequently) this mix into their operational model for improved economics and contingency planning


For Industry

8

7Advanced supply-chain risk management (smart sourcingpredictive analytics-driven) becomes part of manufacturersrsquodistributorsrsquo new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the harsh experience of COVID-19 disrupting the global supply-chain advanced supply chain management will be a mission-critical activity


Cloud-kitchens will become major part of the restaurant and QSRs business models in a new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the crisis many restaurant chains are currently facing new winners and models will emerge Central to this will be further growth of cloud-kitchen operations

Tech solutions driving logistics efficiencies with least-touch interactions like mobile connectivity between farmers and buyers blockchain-enabled trading and others could become a new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the challenges of transportation and logistics that are faced during a pandemic technology solutions will drive innovation in enabling least-touch engagements and transactions


For Industry

10

9


Stronger local and regional food security value chain policies (partnerships investments trade agreements) become a new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the significant segmented impact to those major exporters major net importers and those who have acute challenges

Enhanced regulations re virus prevention and containment for industry (food safety expanded dimensions) as well as sustainability (food wastage) could be a new post-COVID-19 normalGiven the critical need to ensure future pandemics are minimized and well managed


For Government

12

11


Strong PPP partnership and industry engagement (diffusion of e-commerce tools newer business and trade models strategic policy incentives) become a new post-COVID-19 normal G20 agri-ministers engage public-private partnership cushions to strengthen and protect food supply chains Industry support for food-import-dependent economies will also be required

Strong safety net for residents (universal programs basic income food nutrition advocacy regulations) could be institutionalized and become a new post-COVID-19 normalPost-COVID-19 driven by accelerated automation net job losses are expected to continue even with economic recovery Governments will have to resort to new approaches and engagements with various stakeholders - especially with the private sector


14

13

For Government


Stronger international coordination (lsquofairrsquo trade agreements joint support policies) could become a new post-COVID-19 normal Given the realization that markets cannot be locked in and are dependent on global supply chains the challenges related to this pandemic necessitate stronger cooperation


15

For Government



An Action Plan Towards the ldquoNew NormalrdquoA post-COVID-19 ldquonew normalrdquo action plan for food industry transitions from crisis management mode through three phases of Return (transition to post-COVID-19) Reform (operational setup) and Reinvent (new solutions efficiencies compliance)

For IndustryMID-TERM STRATEGY 1-3 YEARS

Strong contingency planning in place for future pandemics Enhanced operational SOPs for staff health virus contamination tracking and verification in place

Operational model to incorporate enhanced working-from-home setup Develop investment strategy for the ldquonew normalrdquo Strengthen social responsibility imperative (addressing food wastage hunger and carbon footprint)

Enhance supply-chain risk management (alternative sourcing predictive analytics)

Leverage tech solutions enabling least-touch transactions (direct-to-customer channel to sell commodities directly to customers)

Develop enhanced manufacturing traceability and logistics automation

RestaurantsQSRs to evaluate and enhance cloud-kitchen strategy

Deliver on customer trust expectations (innovations and new regulation compliance) Expand online grocery engagement Develop strategies around healthy food trends Invest in protein alternative options and related trends Innovate around cooking-at-home trends

RETURN

REFORM Inputs amp Manufacturing Distribution Customer

REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS

Not part of this briefings focus

1 ndash 15 YEARS

Return ndash Reform ndash Initiate Reinvent

15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention


A post-COVID-19 ldquonew normalrdquo action plan for government transitions from crisis management mode through three phases of Return (transition to post-COVID-19) Reform (operational setup) and Reinvent (new industry policies stakeholder engagements)

For GovernmentMID-TERM STRATEGY 1-3 YEARS

Strong contingency planning in place for future pandemics Enhanced operational SOPs for staff health virus contamination engaged with the food industry

Develop strong government-linked food industry and related investment strategy including enhanced PPPs for the ldquonew normalrdquo

Enhanced Regulations re virus prevention and containment for industry (food safety expanded dimensions) also re food wastage

Advanced Food Security measures (partnerships investments trade agreements) Advanced food industry-related PPP partnerships Strengthen international coordination (lsquofairrsquo trade agreements joint support policies)

Strengthen safety net for residents (universal programs basic income food nutrition advocacy)

RETURN

REFORM Health and Safety

Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT

An Action Plan Towards the ldquoNew Normalrdquo


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors

Rafi-uddin ShikohManaging Partner

Dr Mohamed AliAssociate Partner ndash Food Sector

Iman AliResearch Analyst

Iman KouvalisSenior Associate

Report design by AacuteM

Photos Unsplash and Shutterstock

DinarStandardtrade is a growth strategy research and advisory firm empowering organizations for profitable and responsible global impact We provide fact-based insights and experience-based strategic advice to help our clients reach their full potential It is a NJ USA-registered business Strategy Insights Inc DBA DinarStandard

New York ndash Dubai ndash Jakartawwwdinarstandardcom

DinarStandard dinarstandard DinarStandard

infodinarstandardcom


Endnotes

1 Berger N amp Hool E (2020 April) Now is the time to invest in FoodTech Retrieved from httpsagfundernewscomnow-is-the-time-to-invest-in-foodtechhtml

2 Neo P (2020 April) Popular purchases during COVID-19 AI predicting changes to FampB consumption trends in Asia Retrieved from Food navigator-asiacom httpswwwfoodnavigator-asiacomArticle20200411Popular-purchases-during-COVID-19-AI-predicting-changes-to-F-B-consumption-trends-in-Asia

3 Nielsen (2020 Mar) ASIAN CONSUMERS ARE RETHINKING HOW THEY EAT POST COVID-19 Retrieved from httpswwwnielsencomuseninsightsarticle2020asian-consumers-are-rethinking-how-they-eat-post-covid-19

4 Fumasi R (2020 March) COVID-19 Update Retail Fresh Produce Demand Soars but Landmines Remain Retrieved from httpsresearchrabobankcomfarensectorsfresh-producecovid-19-update-retail-fresh-producehtml

5 Spoon Guru website Immunity Support Tag Retrieved from httpswwwspoonguruimmunity-support

6 Clarke G ( 2020 April 8) COVID-19 impact could cause equivalent of 195 million job losses says ILO chief Retrieved from News Un httpsnewsunorgenstory2020041061322

7 Food Insight (2020 April 14) Consumer Survey COVID-19rsquos Impact on Food Purchasing Eating Behaviors and Perceptions of Food Safety Retrieved from International Food Information Council Foundation httpsfoodinsightorgconsumer-survey-covid-19s-impact-on-food-purchasing

8 Nielsen (2020 May 1) In latin america covid-19 will hit low-income consumers the most Retrieved from httpswwwnielsencomuseninsightsarticle2020in-latin-america-covid-19-will-hit-low-income-consumers-the-most

9 Morrison O (2020 April 08) Coronavirus Consumer demand for staple foods lsquohigh but stabilisingrsquo Retrieved from Food Navigator httpswwwfoodnavigatorcomArticle20200408Coronavirus-Consumer-demand-for-staple-foods-high-but-stabilising

10 Watson E (2020 March 19) COVID-19 Packaged food amp beverage brands enjoy surging sales but mass unemployment could change the landscape rapidly Retrieved from Foodnavigator-Usa httpswwwfoodnavigator-usacomArticle20200319COVID-19-Packaged-food-beverage-brands-enjoy-surging-sales-but-mass-unemployment-could-change-the-landscape-rapidlyutm_source=copyrightamputm_medium=OnSiteamputm_campaign=copyright

11 Neo P (2020 May 05) Eating at home Chinarsaquos COVID-19 online purchasing patterns reveal huge shift towards home cooking Retrieved from Foodnavigator-Asia httpswwwfoodnavigator-asiacomArticle20200505Eating-at-home-China-s-COVID-19-online-purchasing-patterns-reveal-huge-shift-towards-home-cookingutm_source=copyrightamputm_medium=OnSiteamputm_campaign=copyright

12 Lim G Y (2020 May 06) E-commerce in Saudi Arabia Food sales surge amid COVID-19 pandemic Retrieved from Foodnavigator-Asia httpswwwfoodnavigator-asiacomArticle20200506E-commerce-in-Saudi-Arabia-Food-sales-surge-amid-COVID-19-pandemicutm_source=copyrightamputm_medium=OnSiteamputm_campaign=copyright

13 Buck R Francis T Little E Moulton J amp Phillips S (2020 April 17) How consumer-goods companies can prepare for the next normal Retrieved from Mckinsey amp Company httpswwwmckinseycomindustriesconsumer-packaged-goodsour-insightshow-consumer-goods-companies-can-prepare-for-the-next-normal

14 Xiao Y amp Fan Z (2020 April 27) 10 technology trends to watch in the COVID-19 pandemic Retrieved from We Forum httpswwwweforumorgagenda20200410-technology-trends-coronavirus-covid19-pandemic-robotics-telehealthutm_source=sfmcamputm_medium=emailamputm_campaign=2717898_Agenda_weekly-1May2020amputm_term=ampemailType=Newsletter

15 Watson E (2020 April 13) From scratch cooking to home baking What coronavirus-fueled trends could linger post-pandemic Retrieved from Food Navigator httpswwwfoodnavigator-usacomArticle20200413From-scratch-cooking-to-home-baking-What-coronavirus-fueled-trends-could-linger-post-pandemic

16 Eatapp (2020 April 06) The Massive Impact of COVID-19 on the Middle East Restaurant Industry Retrieved from httpsblogeatappcoimpact-of-covid-19-on-middle-east-restaurant-industry


17 Watson E (2020 March 20) COVID-19 Mealkit brands see sharp increase in demand although longer-term impact harder to predict Retrieved from Food Navigator httpswwwfoodnavigator-usacomArticle20200320COVID-19-Mealkit-brands-see-sharp-increase-in-demand-although-longer-term-impact-harder-to-predict

18 Lunden I (2020 April 16) Gousto a UK meal-kit service raises another $41M as business booms under lockdown Retrieved from Tech Crunch httpstechcrunchcom20200415gousto-a-uk-meal-kit-service-raises-another-41m-as-business-booms-under-lockdown

19 Perez S (2020 April 27) Amazon gives away a free year of live and on-demand cooking classes on Food Network Kitchen app Retrieved from Tech Crunch httpstechcrunchcom20200427amazon-gives-away-a-free-year-of-live-and-on-demand-cooking-classes-on-food-network-kitchen-app

20 Foote N (2020 March 25) COVID-19 measures could cause lsquodevastatingrsquo labour shortage in EU farming Retrieved from Euractiv httpswwweuractivcomsectionagriculture-foodnewscovid-19-measures-could-cause-devastating-labour-shortage-in-eu-farming


22 Associated Press (2020 May 01) Tyson Foods to reopen Indiana plant with limited production Retrieved from Washington Times httpswwwwashingtontimescomnews2020may1tyson-foods-to-reopen-indiana-plant-with-limited-p

23 Mahnken D (2020 February 14) The 10 biggest risks in the supply chain from the outbreak of the coronavirus COVID-19 Retrieved from Saloodo httpswwwsaloodocomblog10-risks-in-the-supply-chain-from-the-outbreak-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19

24 Overstreet K (2020 March 24) All Roads Lead to Delay in the Time of COVID-19 Retrieved from Profood World httpswwwprofoodworldcomhomearticle21124090all-roads-lead-to-delay-in-the-time-of-covid19

25 Cullen1 M T (2020 March 29) COVID-19 and the risk to food supply Retrieved from Food And Agriculture Organization of the UN httpwwwfaoorg3ca8388enCA8388ENpdf

26 Shahz (2020 April 20) Indian farmers go digital reaching customers directly to combat the impacts of COVID-19 Retrieved from dlt ledgers httpswwwdltsgas-concerns-grow-about-the-supply-of-food-these-indian-farmers-are-going-digital-reaching-customers-directly-to-combat-the-impacts-of-covid-19

27 Bhargava S (2020 May 12) Consumer sentiment evolves as the next ldquonormalrdquo approaches Retrieved from Mckinsey amp Company httpswwwmckinseycombusiness-functionsmarketing-and-salesour-insightsa-global-view-of-how-consumer-behavior-is-changing-amid-covid-19

28 JBF Editors (2020 April 17) Restaurants need more support to survive COVID-19 Retrieved from James Beard httpswwwjamesbeardorgblogrestaurants-need-more-support-to-survive-covid-19

29 Theodorersquos (Tedrsquos Grocer) website httpswwwtheodorestedsgrocer

30 Nair M (2020 March 20) Cooking in the time of Coronavirus Why lsaquocloudrsaquo kitchens are UAErsquos hottest investment choice now Retrieved from Gulf News httpsgulfnewscombusinessretailcooking-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-why-cloud-kitchens-are-uaes-hottest-investment-choice-now-170511829

31 Nair M (2020 April 28) COVID-19 counter UAE FampB businesses to launch own food order-delivery app Retrieved from Gulf News httpsgulfnewscombusinessretailcovid-19-counter-uae-fb-businesses-to-launch-own-food-order-delivery-app-11588045887997

32 Bitter A (2020 April 10) Food in Focus March consumer prices rise but COVID-19 dings data collection Retrieved from SampP Global httpswwwspglobalcommarketintelligenceennews-insightslatest-news-headlinesfood-in-focus-march-consumer-prices-rise-but-covid-19-dings-data-collection-57985331


34 Altavia (2020 April 06) COVID-19 Unprecedented collaborations in the retail sector Retrieved from httpswwwaltavia-groupcomenblogcovid-19-unprecedented-collaborations-in-the-retail-sector

35 BRIEF (2020 May 04) Food Security and COVID-19 Retrieved from The World Bank httpswwwworldbankorgentopicagriculturebrieffood-security-and-covid-19


36 Good K (2020 April 06) Prices for Some Food Staples Increase as COVID-19 Impacts on Labor Remain a Concern Retrieved from Illinois httpsfarmpolicynewsillinoisedu202004prices-for-some-food-staples-increase-as-covid-19-impacts-on-labor-remain-a-concern

37 World Food Programme (2020 April 21) COVID-19 will double number of people facing food crises unless swift action is taken Retrieved from httpswwwwfporgnewscovid-19-will-double-number-people-facing-food-crises-unless-swift-action-taken

38 The World Bank (2020 May 04) Food Security and COVID-19 Retrieved from httpswwwworldbankorgentopicagriculturebrieffood-security-and-covid-19

39 Bloomberg (2020 May 16) Saudi Arabia boosts food spending at home and abroad to secure supply Retrieved from Gulf Business httpsgulfnewscombusinesssaudi-arabia-boosts-food-spending-at-home-and-abroad-to-secure-supply-11589610122810

40 Peters A (2020 April 09) Abu Dhabi is investing $100 million in indoor farming as it tries to become more resilient Retrieved from FastCompany httpswwwfastcompanycom90485666the-united-arab-emirates-is-100-million-in-indoor-farming-as-it-tries-to-become-more-resilient

41 ILO - International Labour Organization Press release (2018 April 30) More than 60 per cent of the worldrsquos employed population are in the informal economy Retrieved from httpswwwiloorgglobalabout-the-ilonewsroomnewsWCMS_627189lang--enindexhtm

42 Sirletti S Follain J amp Rotondi F (2020 March 11) Italy Announces $28 Billion Plan to Cushion Virus-Hit Economy Retrieved from Bloomberg httpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles2020-03-10conte-calls-on-ecb-to-do-whatever-it-takes-against-coronavirus

43 Neo P (2020 April 29) Thorny issue Malaysian durian industry hit by demand slump and manpower shortage due to COVID-19 Retrieved from Food Navigator-Asia httpswwwfoodnavigator-asiacomArticle20200429Thorny-issue-Malaysian-durian-industry-hit-by-demand-slump-and-manpower-shortage-due-to-COVID-19

44 Rixon P (2020 April 28) Article Food and Ag Policy Briefing (28 April) Retrieved from IHS Markit httpsihsmarkitcomresearch-analysisfood-and-ag-policy-briefing-28-aprilhtml


46 Zhang Z (2020 April 08) How COVID-19 Will Transform the Fresh Food Industry in China Retrieved from China Briefing httpswwwchina-briefingcomnewshow-covid-19-will-transform-china-fresh-food-industry-investment-opportunities

47 Abu Dhabi Ports (2020 April 29) Abu Dhabi Ports Establishes COVID-19 Testing Facilities at Zayed Port and Khalifa Port Retrieved from httpswwwadportsaeabu-dhabi-ports-establishes-covid-19-testing-facilities-at-zayed-port-and-khalifa-port

48 Yiannas F (2020 March 25) Amid coronavirus outbreak FDA leaders say the food supply is safe Retrieved from Food Safety News httpswwwfoodsafetynewscom202003amid-coronavirus-outbreak-fda-leaders-say-the-food-supply-is-safe

49 Map can be accessed from httpswwwwilhelmsencomships-agencycampaignscoronaviruscoronavirus-map

50 Anthem P (2020 April 17) Risk of hunger pandemic as COVID-19 set to almost double acute hunger by end of 2020 Retrieved from World Food Programme Insight httpsinsightwfporgcovid-19-will-almost-double-people-in-acute-hunger-by-end-of-2020-59df0c4a8072

51 UNESCO COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response Retrieved from httpsenunescoorgcovid19educationresponse

52 The World Bank (2020 April 11) In India womenrsquos self-help groups combat the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic Retrieved from httpswwwworldbankorgennewsfeature20200411women-self-help-groups-combat-covid19-coronavirus-pandemic-india

53 Mascarenhas N (2020 April 26) Tech for good during COVID-19 Therapy for nurses baby food and an online diary Retrieved from Techcrunch httpstechcrunchcom20200426tech-for-good-during-covid-19-therapy-for-nurses-baby-food-and-an-online-diary


Produced by

An Insights Brief Series

GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19


03 Purpose and Approach

05 Global Food Industry Context

06 Impact of Crisis on Consumer Behavior

09 Impact of Crisis on Industry

12 Impact of Crisis on Government Policies

16 15 Signals of a Post-COVID-19 ldquoNew Normalrdquo for the Global Food Industry

26 An Action Plan Towards the ldquoNew Normalrdquo

SummaryTHIS INSIGHTS BRIEF FOCUSES ON WHAT THE POST-COVID-19 ldquoNEW NORMALrdquo WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE GLOBAL FOOD INDUSTRY (1-3 YEARS TIMEFRAME)

Global food supply chain disruption is a top impact of the crisis on industry

Livestock B2B Ingredients Meat amp Poultry Vegetable amp Fruits Cereals

are the most vulnerable representing


Ensuring food supply is a top impact of the crisis on governments

Based on a segmented impact framework countries most vulnerable within first segment (high incomehigh food import dependent) are

The most acute food supply challenged countries are

GAMBIA YEMEN CONGO

QATAR UAE JAPAN

An action plan towards the ldquonew normalrdquo for food industry and government transitions from current

crisis management mode into three phases of

15 Signals

of Post-COVID-19 ldquonew normalrdquo presented

are divided into

10 identified for the Industry

(led by customer trust and advanced supply chain risk

management) and

5 for Government

(led by advanced food security measures and enhanced regulations)

18 of todayrsquos total global

food consumption ($172 trill) is in the top 5 most severe Covid-19 affected

countries

RETURN REFORM REINVENT

56 ($564 bill) of total food

trade supply globally

SAUDI ARABIA SINGAPORE



PURPOSE





APPROACH




sufficient immunity

















Cereals 104

AgrInputs 31

B2B Ingredients 68

Animal Rendering 16

Logistics

Food Distrib

Grocery Stores

Restaurants

Fish 153

MeatPoultry 130

Oils amp Fats 81

Beverages 79

Dairy 75



Soups amp Sauces 27

Sugar Products 16

Syrups Spreads 6






Agriculture inputs





globally


Climate Change



Food wastage



135mpeople





10 of the global





(ILO)

124USA

84Netherlands

72China

68Brazil

62Germany

49France

46Spain

43Canada

36Italy

35Thailand

$ BILLIONS





CONCERNS








1 2 43

UP UP UP

DOWN

DOWN DOWN

SHIFTS


923USA

226Indonesia

1539China

203Brazil

219Germany

193France

329Japan

258Russia

179Italy

522India


Hunger crisis





18of total globally




























1

























SE

VE

RIT

Y O

F I

MP

AC

T


1Employee safety

availability

2Logistics

disruptions

4RestaurantQSRs

severe impact


3


SHIFTS


























01Packaged Foods


Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79


Confectioners-3


Farm Products-232



Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69







Bunge Ltd USA -45





Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54



1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19



PURPOSE





APPROACH




sufficient immunity

















Cereals 104

AgrInputs 31

B2B Ingredients 68

Animal Rendering 16

Logistics

Food Distrib

Grocery Stores

Restaurants

Fish 153

MeatPoultry 130

Oils amp Fats 81

Beverages 79

Dairy 75



Soups amp Sauces 27

Sugar Products 16

Syrups Spreads 6






Agriculture inputs





globally


Climate Change



Food wastage



135mpeople





10 of the global





(ILO)

124USA

84Netherlands

72China

68Brazil

62Germany

49France

46Spain

43Canada

36Italy

35Thailand

$ BILLIONS





CONCERNS








1 2 43

UP UP UP

DOWN

DOWN DOWN

SHIFTS


923USA

226Indonesia

1539China

203Brazil

219Germany

193France

329Japan

258Russia

179Italy

522India


Hunger crisis





18of total globally




























1

























SE

VE

RIT

Y O

F I

MP

AC

T


1Employee safety

availability

2Logistics

disruptions

4RestaurantQSRs

severe impact


3


SHIFTS


























01Packaged Foods


Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79


Confectioners-3


Farm Products-232



Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69







Bunge Ltd USA -45





Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54



1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19














Cereals 104

AgrInputs 31

B2B Ingredients 68

Animal Rendering 16

Logistics

Food Distrib

Grocery Stores

Restaurants

Fish 153

MeatPoultry 130

Oils amp Fats 81

Beverages 79

Dairy 75



Soups amp Sauces 27

Sugar Products 16

Syrups Spreads 6






Agriculture inputs





globally


Climate Change



Food wastage



135mpeople





10 of the global





(ILO)

124USA

84Netherlands

72China

68Brazil

62Germany

49France

46Spain

43Canada

36Italy

35Thailand

$ BILLIONS





CONCERNS








1 2 43

UP UP UP

DOWN

DOWN DOWN

SHIFTS


923USA

226Indonesia

1539China

203Brazil

219Germany

193France

329Japan

258Russia

179Italy

522India


Hunger crisis





18of total globally




























1

























SE

VE

RIT

Y O

F I

MP

AC

T


1Employee safety

availability

2Logistics

disruptions

4RestaurantQSRs

severe impact


3


SHIFTS


























01Packaged Foods


Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79


Confectioners-3


Farm Products-232



Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69







Bunge Ltd USA -45





Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54



1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19




CONCERNS








1 2 43

UP UP UP

DOWN

DOWN DOWN

SHIFTS


923USA

226Indonesia

1539China

203Brazil

219Germany

193France

329Japan

258Russia

179Italy

522India


Hunger crisis





18of total globally




























1

























SE

VE

RIT

Y O

F I

MP

AC

T


1Employee safety

availability

2Logistics

disruptions

4RestaurantQSRs

severe impact


3


SHIFTS


























01Packaged Foods


Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79


Confectioners-3


Farm Products-232



Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69







Bunge Ltd USA -45





Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54



1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19




























1

























SE

VE

RIT

Y O

F I

MP

AC

T


1Employee safety

availability

2Logistics

disruptions

4RestaurantQSRs

severe impact


3


SHIFTS


























01Packaged Foods


Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79


Confectioners-3


Farm Products-232



Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69







Bunge Ltd USA -45





Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54



1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19


























01Packaged Foods


Grocery Stores 164

Restaurants-79


Confectioners-3


Farm Products-232



Kroger Co USA 17

iFresh Inc USA 69







Bunge Ltd USA -45





Aramark USA -62

Sysco Corp USA -54



1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19


1








country

1Supporting the




malnutrition

4Regulation


contamination

3



LO

W

INC

OM

E L

EV

EL

(G

DP

PE

R C

AP

ITA

) H

IGH






Turkey

Ukraine

UzbekistanCongo

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

UAEJapan

Qatar

UK Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Hong Kong

Yemen

SHIFTS









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19









Ecuador

Netherlands

Belgium

Peru

Brazil

Spain

Singapore

Canada

Portugal

Turkey

France

Italy

Germany

Russian Federation

India

Pakistan

United Kingdom

United States

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

98

91

65

46

36

32

25

25

25

21

18

17

16

13

12

08

07

06

04

0

0 5 10


2019 DATA

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Ecuador

Turkey

Peru

Russian Federation

Spain

Portugal

Canada

Netherlands

France

Italy

United States

Belgium

Germany

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Singapore

86

61

51

38

35

28

2

15

12

11

1

09

09

07

06

06

04

03

0

0

0 5 10




















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19



















risk management

7Work from home

8Cloud Kitchens

9Logistics tech


For Industry

Healthy food boost


2Online grocery

3Cook-at-home

4Customer trust

5CONSUMER-RELATED


For Government



12PPP partnership

13Social safety net


15





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19





For Industry

2

1





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19





For Industry

4

3




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19




For Industry

6





For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19




For Industry

8






For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19





For Industry

10

9





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19





For Government

12

11





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19





14

13

For Government




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19




15

For Government












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19












RETURN


REINVENT

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19









RETURN


Economic Enablement

Social Services

6-12 MONTHS


1 ndash 15 YEARS


15 ndash 3 YEARS

Expand Reinvention

REINVENT



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors












Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19


Endnotes

























































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19









































Produced by


GLOBAL FOOD

INDUSTRY

15 signals of a

Post-COVID-19


15 signals of a post-covid-19 ‘new normal’ · enhanced regulations re: virus prevention and...

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