Outlook for dairy farming in the Netherlands

Michel de Haan - Wageningen University & Research Centre

Dairy region Milk density in t milk / km2 land

Source: IFCN Dairy Report 2011

Do environmental regulations

neutralize the quota abolition benefits

for dairy structural change?

Do environmental regulations neutralize the quota

abolition benefits for Dairy structural change?

----------

- Quota abolition -> structural change ?

- No structural change without abolition?

- Structural change is needed / desirable (growth?)

- Impact of environmental regulations in NL?

No structural change?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

milk a

nim

als

/ f

arm

farm

s i

n 1

,000

Farm number and size

Farm number

Average farm size

No structural change?

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19

96

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

IFCN Standard Classes - Dairy farms in % per size class

1 - 2

>2 - 10

>10 - 30

>30 - 100

>100 - 300

>300 - 1000

> 1000

- Quota abolition -> structural change ?

- No structural change without abolition?

-> Always development / change; with or without quota

- Structural change is needed / desirable (growth?)

-> Development = more cows ?

-> Seems the only way

-> how many? No mega barns (> 400 cows?)

-> Family farms

-> still growing !

-> 10 – 20% extra milk

expected before 2020

Environmental regulations and NL

Comparing countries

land km2

inhabitants

(million)

milk

production

(* million ton)

India 3,287,263 1,220 130

the Netherlands 41,000 17 12

USA 9,629,091 317 80

Germany 357,121 82 29

New Zealand 267,515 4.4 19

France 643,801 66 23

Great Britain 242,495 63 14

Comparing countries

Km2 People/km2 t milk/km2

India 3,287,263 371 39

the Netherlands 41,000 415 293

USA 9,629,091 33 8

Germany 357,121 230 81

New Zealand 267,515 16 71

France 643,801 103 36

Great Britain 242,495 260 57

Dairy <> industry • No mega barns (400 cows)

• Maintain grazing

• Be good and tell it, communicate with society

• Talk with the neighbours, in case a new permit is needed

Environment is about

• Nitrate directive (< 50 mg/l in ground water)

• Water directive (clean surface water)

• Ammonia emission ceiling

• Phosphate production ceiling in NL, 2002 level

• GHG, biodiversity and extra water measures expected

Regulations in NL for dairy • Maximum N and P2O5 application with manure

– 170, 230, 250 kg N / ha

– 90 kg P2O5 / ha grass; 60 kg P2O5 / ha maize

• Maximum N and P application with fertilizer

– Ca 140 kg N/ha (sand) <-> ca 240 kg N/ha (clay)

– Mainly 0 kg P2O5 / ha with fertilizer

• Low emission manure application, covering manure storages, no application from 1-9 until 16-2

ammonia

Manure in NL • EU: 170 kg manure N per ha

• Derogation in NL, high grass growth (230 – 250 kg

N/ha);

– Extra demands to maintain derogation -> phoshate production ceiling, ....

• Manure production > available room on land

• Manure surplus

Just under ceiling

Dairy higher than in 2002

Recent and coming manure regulations • 10 – 50% of P2O5 (manure) surplus must be

processed and exported

• Dairy law: 25 – 50% of extra P2O5 -> extra land

• Obligation for less P2O5 in concentrate

• Improve phosphate efficiency with ANCA

• Extra law:

– Max P2O5 production / farm

– Max milk production / farm (/cow?)

– Max number of animals / farm

Cost of production • Already high costs for manure disposal

• Obligation for weighing and sampling manure

• € 10 - € 20 per ton manure

• Land prices will increase (> € 75.000 / ha)

• Concentrate price will increase

• Milk yield and crop yield will increase (improved efficiency)

• New quota costs (??)

Conclusions • Lots of people and milk / km2

-> Society has influence

-> Extra focus on environment

• 10% - 20% extra milk expected soon

• Limit on manure production

• Recently extra regulations introduced

• More regulations expected

• Costs for extra animals will increase

The Netherlands: small country, big in dairy

Thanks for your attention