15463 nbcwsj late october poll 11-3-15 release

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15463 -- page 1 Late October 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Interviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: October 25-29, 2015 37 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline. Study #15463 NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.

The margin of error for 1,000 interviews among Adults is ±3.10% The margin of error for 847 interviews among Registered Voters is ±3.37%

The margin of error for 400 interviews among Republican Primary Voters is ±4.90%

The margin of error for 400 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±4.90%

Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, “^”, or “^^” all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults.

Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are?

(IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST)

18-24 ...................................................... 10 25-29 ...................................................... 8 30-34 ...................................................... 12 35-39 ...................................................... 8 40-44 ...................................................... 9 45-49 ...................................................... 6 50-54 ...................................................... 8 55-59 ...................................................... 11 60-64 ...................................................... 11 65-69 ...................................................... 5 70-74 ...................................................... 4 75 and over ............................................ 6 Not sure/refused ................................... 2

Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic

or Spanish-speaking background?

Yes, Hispanic ........................................... 11 No, not Hispanic ....................................... 88 Not sure/refused ..................................... 1

Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else?

White .......................................................... 74 Black .......................................................... 12 Asian .......................................................... 3 Other .......................................................... 3 Hispanic (VOL) ......................................... 5 Not sure/refused ....................................... 3

48 Male 52 Female


Q3 Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (STATE)]?

Registered ................................... 85 Not registered .............................. 15 Not sure ..................................... -

Q4 All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that

things are off on the wrong track? 1

High Low

10/25-29/15

10/15-18/15 9/15 7/15 6/15 4/15 3/15

1/15

12/14

9/01

10/17-20/08+

Headed in the right direction ... 27 25 30 28 31 28 32 31 27 72 12 Off on the wrong track ............. 64 64 62 65 61 62 60 59 64 11 78 Mixed (VOL) .......................... 5 7 5 4 4 6 5 5 6 11 7 Not sure ................................ 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 3 6 3

11/14 10/30-

11/1/14+ 10/8-

12/14+ 9/14+ 8/14 6/14 4/14 3/14 1/14 25 27 25 23 22 25 27 26 28 65 63 65 67 71 63 63 65 63 6 6 6 6 5 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 5 4 4 4

12/13 10/25-28/13

10/7-9/13 9/13 7/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 1/13

29 22 14 30 29 32 31 32 35 64 70 78 62 61 59 61 59 57 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 4 2 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4

12/12 10/12+ 9/26-

30/12+ 9/12-

16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/12 41 41 40 39 32 32 31 33 33 33 53 53 53 55 61 60 61 58 59 58 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 2 4 1/12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 1/11 30 22 19 17 19 25 29 36 28 35 61 69 73 74 73 67 62 50 63 56 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 10 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4

12/10 11/10 10/28-30/10+

10/14-18/10+ 9/10

8/26-30/10

8/5- 9/10

6/10

5/6-11/10

3/10

28 32 31 32 32 30 32 29 34 33 63 58 60 59 59 61 58 62 56 59 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3

1/23 -25/10

1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/09 1/09

32 34 33 36 39 39 42 43 41 26 58 54 55 52 48 49 46 43 44 59 7 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1

The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.


Q5 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? High Low

10/25-29/15

10/15-18/15 9/15 7/15 6/15 4/15 3/15 1/15 12/14 4/09 9/14+

Approve .......... 45 46 47 45 48 48 46 46 45 61 40 Disapprove ..... 49 49 47 50 48 47 50 48 50 30 54 Not sure ........ 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 6 5 9 6

11/14 10/30-

11/1/14+ 10/8-

12/14+ 9/14+ 8/14 6/14 4/14 3/14 1/14 12/13 44 42 42 40 40 41 44 41 43 43 50 52 52 54 54 53 50 54 51 54 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 3

10/25-28/13

10/7- 9/13 9/13 8/13 7/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 1/13 12/12

42 47 45 44 45 48 47 50 52 53 51 48 50 48 50 47 48 45 44 43 7 5 5 8 5 5 5 5 4 4

10/12+ 9/26-

30/12+ 9/12-

16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/12 1/12 49 49 50 48 49 47 48 49 50 48 48 48 48 49 48 48 46 46 45 46 3 3 2 3 3 5 6 5 5 6 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 2/11 1/11 46 44 44 44 47 49 52 49 48 53 48 51 51 51 48 46 41 45 46 41 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 6

12/10 11/10

10/28- 30/10+

10/14-18/10+ 9/10

8/26-30/10

8/5-9/10

6/10

5/20-23/10

5/6-11/10

45 47 45 47 46 45 47 45 48 50 48 47 50 49 49 49 48 48 45 44 7 6 5 4 5 6 5 7 7 6

3/10

1/23-25/10

1/10-14/10

12/09

10/09

9/09

8/09

7/09

6/09

4/09

2/09

48 50 48 47 51 51 51 53 56 61 60 47 44 43 46 42 41 40 40 34 30 26 5 6 9 7 7 8 9 7 10 9 14

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


Q6 Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT BARACK OBAMA)

Very Positive

Somewhat

Positive

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very

Negative

Don't Know Name/

Not Sure Barack Obama1 October 25-29, 2015 .................... 27 17 12 12 31 1 October 15-18, 2015 .................... 27 17 12 13 31 - September 2015........................... 28 18 14 11 29 - July 2015 ...................................... 24 20 13 14 29 - June 2015 .................................... 25 20 13 14 27 1 April 2015 ..................................... 26 21 13 13 27 - March 2015 .................................. 24 20 12 14 29 1 January 2015 ............................... 24 21 13 12 29 1 December 2014 ........................... 24 21 10 13 31 1 November 2014 ........................... 24 21 11 11 32 1 Oct. 30 – Nov. 1, 2014+ ............... 23 20 12 13 32 - October 8-12, 2014+ .................... 21 22 11 12 34 - September 2014+ ........................ 22 20 11 13 33 1 August 2014 ................................. 22 18 13 14 33 - June 2014 .................................... 20 21 13 14 31 1 April 2014 ..................................... 24 20 15 13 28 - March 2014 .................................. 21 20 15 14 30 - January 2014 ............................... 23 19 13 14 30 1 December 2013 ........................... 22 20 11 13 33 1 October 25-28, 2013 .................... 24 17 13 13 32 1 October 7-9, 2013 ........................ 26 21 11 11 30 1 May 30-June 2, 2013 ................... 28 19 13 12 28 - April 2013 ..................................... 30 17 10 15 27 1 January 2013 ............................... 31 21 11 11 26 - December 2012 ........................... 37 16 9 14 24 - October 2012+ ............................. 34 15 8 12 31 - September 26-30, 2012+ ............. 37 15 6 11 31 - August 2012+ ............................... 31 17 8 13 30 1 July 2012+ .................................... 33 16 8 11 32 - June 2012 .................................... 29 19 14 11 27 - January 2012 ............................... 28 22 10 14 25 1 August 2011 ................................. 24 20 12 14 30 - April 2011 ..................................... 28 22 14 13 23 - January 2011 ............................... 29 23 15 14 18 1 December 2010 ........................... 25 23 14 14 24 - November 2010 ........................... 28 21 12 13 26 - October 28-30, 2010+ .................. 29 18 12 15 27 - June 2010 .................................... 27 20 13 15 25 - May 20-23, 2010 .......................... 28 19 15 14 24 - March 2010 .................................. 31 19 11 14 24 1 January 23-25, 2010 .................... 29 23 14 14 20 - December 2009 ........................... 29 21 13 15 22 - October 2009 ............................... 36 20 11 12 21 - February 2009 .............................. 47 21 12 9 10 1 January 2009 ............................... 43 23 17 8 6 3 Barack Obama High February 2009 ..................................... 47 21 12 9 10 1 Presidential Term Low August 2014 ........................................ 22 18 13 14 33 - All-time Obama Low October 28-30, 2006+ ......................... 14 17 18 5 6 40 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.


Q6 (cont'd) Very

Positive

Somewhat

Positive

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very

Negative

Don't Know Name/

Not Sure The Republican Party1 October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 7 22 26 20 24 1 September 2015 ........................... 8 21 24 21 24 2 July 2015 ...................................... 7 21 26 22 22 2 April 2015 ..................................... 8 22 26 20 23 1 January 2015 ................................ 6 19 27 23 23 2 December 2014 ............................ 7 23 24 22 23 1 November 2014 ............................ 9 23 23 18 25 2 Oct. 30 – Nov. 1, 2014+ ................ 7 22 23 23 24 1 October 8-12, 2014+..................... 6 21 21 25 25 2 September 2014+ ......................... 9 22 26 20 21 2 June 2014 ..................................... 6 23 24 22 23 2 April 2014 ..................................... 6 19 29 22 22 2 March 2014................................... 7 20 27 21 24 1 January 2014 ................................ 5 19 28 22 25 1 December 2013 ............................ 6 20 22 26 25 1 October 25-28, 2013 ..................... 6 16 24 23 30 1 October 7-9, 2013 ......................... 7 17 21 24 29 2 September 2013 ........................... 7 21 27 23 21 1 May 30-June 2, 2013 .................... 8 24 26 18 23 1 February 2013 .............................. 8 21 24 20 26 1 January 2013 ................................ 6 20 24 24 25 1 December 2012 ............................ 9 21 23 18 27 2 October 2012+ .............................. 15 21 20 18 25 1 September 26-30, 2012+ .............. 14 24 18 18 25 1 August 2012+ ............................... 12 24 18 16 29 1 July 2012+ .................................... 11 23 22 18 25 1 May 2012 ...................................... 9 23 23 19 24 2 April 2012 ..................................... 11 22 23 19 24 1 March 2012................................... 8 24 23 19 24 2 January 2012 ................................ 8 23 24 19 25 1 December 2011 ............................ 6 21 23 23 25 2 November 2011 ............................ 9 21 23 18 26 3 October 2011 ................................ 11 22 21 18 26 2 August 2011 ................................. 8 24 21 23 23 1 May 2011 ...................................... 8 24 22 21 23 2 April 2011 ..................................... 7 24 24 22 22 1 January 2011 ................................ 7 27 24 21 19 2 December 2010 ............................ 11 27 23 17 20 2 November 2010 ............................ 11 23 24 20 19 3 October 28-30, 2010+................... 12 22 24 18 23 1 October 14-18, 2010+................... 8 23 25 19 23 2 September 2010 ........................... 8 23 25 21 22 1 August 26-30, 2010 ...................... 7 23 25 22 21 2 August 5-9, 2010 .......................... 6 18 28 24 22 2 June 2010 ..................................... 6 24 26 23 19 2 May 20-23, 2010 ........................... 10 23 26 21 19 1 March 2010................................... 6 25 24 20 23 2 January 23-25, 2010 ..................... 7 25 27 18 20 3 January 10-14, 2010 ..................... 7 23 27 24 18 1 December 2009 ............................ 5 23 27 24 19 2 June 2009 ..................................... 6 19 29 23 21 2 April 2009 ..................................... 7 22 25 22 22 2 February 2009 .............................. 7 19 24 25 22 3 High December 2001 ............................ 21 36 18 13 9 3 Low October 25-28, 2013 ..................... 6 16 24 23 30 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.


Q6 (cont'd)

Very Positive

Somewhat

Positive

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very

Negative

Don't Know Name/

Not Sure The Democratic Party1 October 25-29, 2015 .................... 15 26 18 17 22 2 September 2015 ........................... 16 25 23 16 19 1 July 2015 ...................................... 13 25 22 18 20 2 April 2015 ..................................... 12 26 24 17 19 2 January 2015 ............................... 9 26 24 18 20 3 December 2014 ............................ 12 25 22 17 22 2 November 2014 ............................ 12 26 20 20 21 1 Oct. 30 – Nov. 1, 2014+ ............... 12 24 19 20 23 2 October 8-12, 2014+ .................... 12 25 20 20 23 1 September 2014+ ......................... 11 25 22 20 22 - June 2014 .................................... 13 25 21 18 22 1 April 2014 ..................................... 13 23 24 19 18 3 March 2014 .................................. 14 21 25 18 20 2 January 2014 ............................... 10 27 22 20 20 1 December 2013 ............................ 10 26 19 20 24 1 October 25-28, 2013 .................... 15 22 21 18 22 2 October 7-9, 2013 ........................ 14 25 18 20 20 3 September 2013 ........................... 13 27 22 20 18 - May 30-June 2, 2013 ................... 14 25 22 19 18 2 February 2013 .............................. 18 23 22 17 19 1 January 2013 ............................... 17 27 17 19 19 1 December 2012 ............................ 21 23 19 16 19 2 October 2012+ ............................. 21 21 17 17 23 1 September 26-30, 2012+ ............. 21 21 17 17 22 2 August 2012+ ............................... 19 23 16 17 23 2 July 2012+ .................................... 17 23 20 17 23 - June 2012 .................................... 14 23 25 18 19 1 May 2012 ..................................... 17 22 19 21 19 1 April 2012 ..................................... 15 24 21 19 19 1 March 2012 .................................. 15 23 24 18 18 2 January 2012 ............................... 15 23 23 21 18 - December 2011 ............................ 9 23 25 23 19 1 November 2011 ............................ 15 25 22 18 19 1 October 2011 ............................... 12 25 19 20 22 2 August 2011 ................................. 11 22 21 19 25 2 June 2011 .................................... 13 25 21 19 20 2 May 2011 ..................................... 15 26 22 18 17 2 April 2011 ..................................... 12 26 22 18 21 1 January 2011 ............................... 15 24 25 19 16 1 December 2010 ............................ 9 28 20 18 23 2 November 2010 ............................ 14 26 18 18 23 1 October 28-30, 2010+ .................. 16 23 17 19 23 2 October 14-18, 2010+ .................. 14 24 16 19 26 1 September 2010 ........................... 15 22 20 20 22 1 August 26-30, 2010 ...................... 11 25 19 19 24 2 August 5-9, 2010 .......................... 11 22 22 18 26 1 May 20-23, 2010 .......................... 15 26 18 18 22 1 May 6-11, 2010 ............................ 11 26 19 18 24 2 March 2010 .................................. 9 28 19 19 24 1 January 10-14, 2010 .................... 11 27 20 18 23 1 December 2009 ............................ 10 25 19 19 26 1 High January 2000 ............................... 20 30 23 15 10 2 Low July 2006 ...................................... 7 25 27 22 17 2 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. 1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.


Q6 (cont'd) Very

Positive

Somewhat

Positive

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very

Negative

Don't Know Name/

Not Sure Hillary Clinton1 October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 17 23 12 12 35 1 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 19 20 12 13 35 1 September 2015 ............................ 14 25 13 13 34 1 July 2015 ....................................... 15 22 14 15 33 1 June 2015 ..................................... 21 23 15 11 29 1 April 2015 ...................................... 19 23 14 10 32 2 March 2015 ................................... 21 23 19 13 23 1 January 2015 ................................ 20 25 17 14 23 1 November 2014 ............................. 24 19 16 15 25 1 September 2014+ .......................... 21 22 16 15 26 - June 2014 ..................................... 23 21 18 14 23 1 April 2014 ...................................... 23 25 19 11 21 1 March 2014 ................................... 23 21 20 12 22 2 September 2013 ............................ 26 25 17 12 19 1 May 30-June 2, 2013 ..................... 29 20 18 13 18 2 April 2013 ...................................... 32 24 14 14 15 1 January 2013 ................................ 34 22 19 12 13 - December 2012 ............................. 34 24 14 16 12 - November 2011 ............................. 33 22 22 12 10 1 May 2011 ...................................... 26 29 23 12 9 1 April 2011 ...................................... 29 27 21 11 11 1 December 2010 ............................. 26 28 18 11 16 1 January 10-14, 2010 .................... 25 27 22 13 12 1 July 2009 ....................................... 26 27 15 15 16 1 February 2009 ............................... 32 27 18 11 11 1 January 2009 ................................ 27 29 14 15 14 1 December 2008 ............................. 27 26 20 14 12 1 September 2008+ .......................... 23 24 15 17 20 1 August 2008+ ................................ 17 25 16 18 23 1 June 2008+ ................................... 18 28 14 17 22 1 April 2008+ .................................... 20 22 14 19 25 - March 24-25, 2008+ ...................... 17 20 15 21 27 - March 7-10, 2008+ ........................ 22 23 11 14 29 1 January 2008 ................................ 24 23 11 11 30 1 June 2007 ..................................... 18 24 15 16 26 1 March 2007 ................................... 16 23 17 15 28 1 December 2006 ............................. 21 22 17 12 26 2 April 2006 ...................................... 19 19 19 13 28 2 December 2004 ............................. 24 21 14 11 29 1 July 2003 ....................................... 16 21 20 13 27 3 March 2001 ................................... 16 19 15 18 31 1 January 2001 ................................ 27 22 13 12 24 2 High February 2009 ............................... 32 27 18 11 11 1 Low March 2001 ................................... 16 19 15 18 31 1 Bernie Sanders October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 15 19 22 9 19 16 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 16 22 19 11 16 16 September 2015 ............................ 15 17 23 9 13 23 July 2015 ....................................... 10 14 20 10 9 37 June 2015 ..................................... 8 8 22 6 7 49 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.1 The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.


Q6 (cont'd) Very

Positive

Somewhat

Positive

Neutral

Somewhat Negative

Very

Negative

Don't Know Name/

Not Sure Jeb Bush October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 3 16 33 24 19 5 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 5 19 31 21 19 5 September 2015 ........................... 4 20 31 19 20 6 July 2015 ...................................... 3 23 26 22 18 8 June 2015 ..................................... 6 21 29 16 20 8 April 2015 ..................................... 5 18 32 19 17 9 March 2015 ................................... 4 19 34 20 14 9 January 2015 ................................ 5 14 36 16 16 13 November 2014 ............................ 6 20 27 18 15 14 September 2014+ ......................... 5 17 32 18 12 16 April 2014 ..................................... 4 17 32 18 14 15 May 30-June 2, 2013 .................... 9 17 33 11 12 18 Donald Trump October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 10 17 17 14 42 - October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 13 17 17 14 39 - September 2015 ........................... 8 17 16 14 44 1 July 2015 ...................................... 10 16 16 13 43 2 February 2011 .............................. 9 17 40 18 11 5 May 2004+ .................................... 9 17 38 14 15 7 December 1999 ............................ 4 12 28 24 25 7 October 1999 ................................ 3 11 25 23 32 6 July 1990 ...................................... 3 11 28 25 24 9 Ben Carson October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 17 20 20 10 14 19 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 16 22 18 11 13 20 September 2015 ........................... 13 16 23 11 10 27 November 2014 ............................ 10 7 18 4 3 58 Marco Rubio October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 7 19 25 14 11 24 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 9 22 23 14 11 21 July 2015 ...................................... 5 19 24 14 9 29 June 2015 ..................................... 7 16 24 12 12 29 April 2015 ..................................... 8 14 24 12 11 31 November 2014 ............................ 7 14 21 10 9 39 September 2014+ ......................... 6 15 21 11 10 37 July 2013 ...................................... 7 16 20 11 9 37 April 2013 ..................................... 12 16 18 8 8 38 February 2013 .............................. 10 14 20 9 8 39 Ted Cruz October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 8 15 22 13 20 22 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 7 14 23 12 22 22 July 2015 ...................................... 7 12 24 12 19 26 April 2015 ..................................... 5 12 24 13 19 27 November 2014 ............................ 5 11 18 8 18 40 October 25-28, 2013 ..................... 9 10 16 8 22 35 October 7-9, 2013 ......................... 7 7 13 8 20 44 May 30-June 2, 2013 .................... 4 6 13 4 8 65 Paul Ryan October 25-29, 2015 ..................... 5 18 28 16 12 21 October 15-18, 2015 ..................... 8 16 28 14 12 22 December 2012 ............................ 14 16 23 15 19 13 October 2012+ .............................. 23 16 16 12 25 8 September 26-30, 2012+ .............. 23 14 18 13 20 12 August 2012+ ............................... 19 14 18 11 21 17 June 2011 ..................................... 6 11 19 8 10 46 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES – BY D/S (POSITIVE – NEGATIVE)

TOTAL POSITIVE

TOTAL NEGATIVE

D/S

Ben Carson ............................................ 37 24 13 Bernie Sanders ...................................... 34 28 6 The Democratic Party ............................ 41 39 2 Barack Obama ....................................... 44 43 1 Marco Rubio ........................................... 26 25 1 Paul Ryan .............................................. 23 28 -5 Hillary Clinton ......................................... 40 47 -7 Ted Cruz ................................................ 23 33 -10 The Republican Party ............................. 29 44 -15 Jeb Bush ................................................ 19 43 -24 Donald Trump ........................................ 27 56 -29

Q7 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "The economic and political systems in the country

are stacked against people like me.” 10/25-

29/15 11/14 4/14 8/12+ 5/10 7/02 6/97 4/97 6/94 6/93 10/92+ 9/92+ Agree .............................. 54 56 55 54 47 34 40 52 45 35 49 50 Disagree ......................... 41 40 39 39 47 59 53 43 48 58 45 45 Not sure ........................ 5 4 6 7 6 7 7 5 7 7 6 5

7/92+ 5/92+ 4/92+ 2/92+ 1/92+ 12/91+ 10/91+ 10/90+10/23-26/88+

10/14-16/88+ 9/88+ 8/88+

56 45 59 47 43 44 48 42 43 50 43 51 37 49 37 47 51 49 46 54 48 42 46 39 7 6 4 6 6 7 6 4 9 8 11 10 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Even though it is a long way off, I’d like to ask you some questions about the 2016 elections… Q8 There are many important issues in this presidential campaign. When it comes to deciding for whom you will

vote for president, which one of the following is the single most important issue in deciding for whom you will vote? (IF "ALL," ASK:) Well, if you had to choose the most important issue, which would you choose? (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK:) And which would be the second most important issue to you in deciding for whom you will vote for president?

TABLE RANKED BY HIGHEST 1ST CHOICE RESPONSE

10/25-29/15+

9/26- 30/12+

The economy .............................................. 38 46 Social issues and values ............................. 16 15 Social Security and Medicare ...................... 12 12 The Federal deficit ....................................... 9 7 Foreign policy and the Middle East ............. 8 6 Health care .................................................. 8 10 Terrorism ..................................................... 8 1 None/other (VOL) ...................................... 1 1 Not sure ..................................................... - 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


TABLE RANKED BY HIGHEST COMBINED RESPONSE

10/25-29/15+

9/26- 30/12+

The economy .............................................. 60 72 Social issues and values ............................. 28 25 Social Security and Medicare ...................... 23 25 Foreign policy and the Middle East ............. 23 19 Health care .................................................. 21 28 The Federal deficit ....................................... 20 17 Terrorism ..................................................... 18 7 None/other (VOL) ...................................... 2 2 Not sure ..................................................... 2 2 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q9 How much difference do you think it will make in the lives of you and your family who wins next year’s

presidential election--a great deal, quite a bit, just some, or very little?

10/25-29/15+* 10/12+ 10/04+ 10/96+ 7/96 5/92

A great deal of difference ................... 42 55 45 21 19 28 Quite a bit of difference ...................... 19 21 27 19 17 18 Just some difference .......................... 20 13 16 28 25 25 Very little difference ............................ 17 9 10 29 34 26 Not sure ............................................ 2 2 2 3 5 3 * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q10 Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for

the outcome of the 2016 presidential election––that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) And do you strongly prefer a (Democrat/Republican), or is your preference not that strong?

10/25-

29/15+

8/08+

7/08+

6/08+

4/08+ 3/7-

10/08+

11/07+

9/07+

6/07

4/07 Democrat 43 46 48 51 51 50 49 47 52 49 Strongly ....................... 33 36 43 44 45 44 41 40 42 39 Not strongly ................. 10 10 5 7 6 6 8 7 10 10 Republican 44 37 36 35 33 37 39 38 31 31 Not strongly ................. 9 13 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 Strongly ....................... 35 24 28 27 25 29 31 29 23 25 Other (VOL) ............... 6 6 4 4 4 4 2 4 5 6 Not sure ..................... 7 11 12 10 12 9 11 11 12 14 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


Q11 What is your preference for the outcome of next year's congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?

10/25-29/15+

10/30-11/1/14+

10/8-12/14+ 9/14+ 8/14+ 6/14+ 4/14+ 3/14+ 1/14+ 12/13+

10/25- 28/13+

Republican-controlled Congress ..... 45 42 42 45 44 43 45 44 43 44 41 Democrat-controlled Congress ....... 45 46 46 43 43 45 45 43 45 42 45 Not sure .......................................... 10 12 12 12 13 12 10 13 12 14 14

10/7- 9/13+ 9/13+ 7/13+ 6/13+ 10/12+

9/26- 30/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+

39 43 44 42 43 43 42 45 44 43 47 46 44 45 45 47 47 46 45 44 14 11 12 13 12 10 11 9 11 13

4/12+ 3/12+ 1/12+ 12/11+ 11/11+ 10/11+ 8/11+ 6/11+ 10/28-30/10+

10/14-18/10+

44 41 41 43 43 41 47 44 46 44 46 46 47 45 46 45 41 44 44 46 10 13 12 12 11 14 12 12 10 10

9/10+ 8/26-

30/10+8/5-

9/10+ 6/10+ 5/20-

23/10+ 5/6-

11/10+

3/10+ 1/23-

25/10+ 1/10-

14/10+ 12/09+ 44 43 42 45 44 44 42 42 41 41 44 43 43 43 43 44 45 44 41 43 12 14 15 12 13 12 13 14 18 16 10/09+ 9/09+ 7/09+ 4/09+ 11/08+ 10/08+ 9/08+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 4/08+ 38 40 39 39 36 36 37 36 36 33 34 46 43 46 48 48 49 50 47 49 52 49 16 17 15 13 16 15 13 17 15 15 17 3/08+ 11/07+ 9/07+ 10/06+ 9/06+ 7/06+ 6/06+ 4/06+ 3/06+ 1/06+ 12/05+ 35 37 35 37 39 38 38 39 37 38 38 49 46 47 52 48 48 49 45 50 47 46 16 17 18 11 13 14 13 16 13 15 16 11/05+ 10/05+ 7/05+ 5/05+ 10/04+ 9/04+ 6/04+ 5/04+ 3/04+ 1/04 12/13/03 37 39 40 40 43 42 42 41 42 42 42 48 48 45 47 44 46 44 44 45 43 42 15 13 15 13 13 12 14 15 13 15 16 10/02+ 9/02 7/02 6/02 1/02 12/01 12/99 10/99 7/99 6/99 4/99 43 42 43 42 44 42 40 39 39 42 41 42 42 41 41 40 40 44 41 43 41 40 15 16 16 17 16 18 16 20 18 17 19 3/99 10/98+ 9/98 7/98 6/98 2/98 1/98 12/97 9/97 7/97 4/97 37 41 40 41 39 41 40 41 41 45 44 43 43 39 40 40 37 42 37 39 39 38 20 16 21 19 21 22 18 22 20 16 18 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


Q12 In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think that it is time to give a new person a chance?

10/25-

29/15+* 10/8-

12/14+ 9/14+ 3/14+ 10/25-28/13+ 7/13+ 8/12+ 3/12+ 8/11+

Deserves to be reelected ........... 35 30 32 34 29 32 43 40 42 Give new person a chance ........ 57 57 57 55 63 57 47 48 47 Not sure ................................... 8 13 11 11 8 11 10 12 11

10/28-30/10+

8/26-30/10+ 6/10+

1/10-14/10+ 12/09+ 10/09+

9/09+

7/08+

37 31 35 39 38 41 40 40 51 56 57 49 49 49 49 47 12 13 8 12 13 10 11 13

11/07+

6/07+ 10/13-16/06+

9/30- 10/2/06+

9/8-11/06+ 7/06+ 6/06+ 3/06+

39 41 39 38 41 38 42 41 51 48 45 45 43 48 45 48 10 11 16 17 16 14 13 11 1/06+ 12/05+ 11/05+ 5/05+ 10/04+ 10/02+ 9/02 10/00+ 41 41 37 42 49 42 41 50 46 44 51 45 34 39 42 35 13 15 12 13 17 19 17 15 9/00+ 6/00+ 12/99 10/98+ 12/97+ 10/94+ 9/94 5/94 1/94 49 49 42 48 41 39 30 34 35 38 39 47 37 45 49 53 50 47 13 12 11 15 14 12 17 16 18 10/93 9/93 7/93 10/92+ 9/92+ 7/92+ 4/92+ 2/92+ 1/92+ 34 37 30 31 31 27 33 37 42 52 47 55 56 56 62 57 52 48 14 16 15 13 13 11 10 11 10 * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q13 And, if there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member

of Congress, including your own representative, would you do this or not?

10/25-29/15+**

10/8- 12/14+

3/14+

10/7- 9/13+

7/13+

1/12+

8/11+

10/28-30/10+

8/26-30/10+

6/10+

3/10+

Yes ................ 52 55 54 60 57 56 54 45 48 47 50 No .................. 44 42 42 35 39 40 41 50 49 50 47 Not sure ....... 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 3 3 3 ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.


Moving on… Q14 Now, if there were a presidential primary election in your state, would you vote in the Democratic primary,

the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election in November 2016?

10/25-29/15+

10/15-18/15+ 9/15+ 7/15+ 6/15+ 4/15+ 3/15+

Vote in Democratic Primary ................................. 28 31 31 30 30 32 30 Vote in Republican Primary.................................. 32 31 28 30 28 29 25 Wait until the general election .............................. 40 34 38 39 38 35 40 Do not plan to vote at all (VOL) .......................... - 1 - - 1 1 2 Not sure .............................................................. - 3 3 1 3 3 3 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q15 Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in

2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE LIST)

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Yes, Could See Self Supporting

No, Could Not See Self Supporting

Don’t Know Name

Not Sure

Hillary Clinton October 25-29, 2015^^ ....... 85 13 - 2 October 15-18, 2015^^ ....... 81 17 - 2 September 2015^^ ............. 76 21 - 3 June 2015^^ ....................... 92 8 - - March 2015^^ .................... 86 13 - 1 Bernie Sanders October 25-29, 2015^^ ....... 61 28 7 4 October 15-18, 2015^^ ....... 64 25 8 3 September 2015^^ ............. 62 24 10 4 June 2015^^ ....................... 40 32 23 5 March 2015^^ .................... 21 21 54 4 Martin O’Malley October 25-29, 2015^^ ....... 18 49 31 2 October 15-18, 2015^^ ....... 13 49 33 5 September 2015^^ ............. 10 39 49 2 June 2015^^ ....................... 12 28 58 2 March 2015^^ .................... 11 20 67 2 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

Q16 And, thinking about people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the next

Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)

10/25-

29/15^^ 10/15-

18/15^^ 9/15^^ 7/15^^ 6/15^^ Hillary Clinton ........................................... 62 58 53 59 75 Bernie Sanders ......................................... 31 33 38 25 15 Martin O’Malley ........................................ 3 1 1 3 2 Jim Webb ................................................. NA 2 1 3 4 Lincoln Chafee ......................................... NA - - 1 - Other (VOL) ........................................... 1 - 1 1 1 None (VOL) ........................................... 1 3 2 4 2 Not sure ................................................. 2 3 4 4 1 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary


Q17 And, regardless of who you support, which one of the following candidates do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE) ^^

Hillary Clinton ............................................... 84 Bernie Sanders ............................................. 12 Martin O’Malley ............................................. 1 Other (VOL) ............................................... - None (VOL) ............................................... - Not sure ..................................................... 3 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

Q18 Which of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to defeat the Republican candidate and

retain the White House? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE) ^^

Hillary Clinton ............................................... 81 Bernie Sanders ............................................. 12 Martin O’Malley ............................................. 3 Other (VOL) ............................................... - None (VOL) ............................................... 1 Not sure ..................................................... 3 ^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

2007-2008 Democratic Primary Comparative Data

Which of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to defeat the Republican candidate and retain the

White House?

1/08 9/07 4/07 Hillary Clinton ................................... 51 54 39 Barack Obama ................................. 29 18 32 John Edwards ................................... 8 15 22 Someone else .................................. 3 4 - None (VOL) .................................... - - 1 Not sure .......................................... 9 9 6


Q19 Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Republican nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THE FIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE LIST)




Don’t Know Name

Not Sure

Ben Carson October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 77 18 1 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 74 20 3 3 September 2015^ ................. 69 23 6 2 July 2015^ ............................ 49 27 21 3 June 2015^ ........................... 50 21 27 2 April 2015^ ............................ 39 22 36 3 March 2015^ ......................... 41 18 38 3 Donald Trump October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 60 37 - 3 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 59 36 1 4 September 2015^ ................. 47 52 - 1 July 2015^ ............................ 47 49 - 4 June 2015^ ........................... 32 66 - 2 March 2015^ ......................... 23 74 1 2 Marco Rubio October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 59 32 5 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 65 26 5 4 September 2015^ ................. 63 27 9 1 July 2015^ ............................ 62 29 7 2 June 2015^ ........................... 74 15 8 3 April 2015^ ............................ 74 15 9 2 March 2015^ ......................... 56 26 14 4 Ted Cruz October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 57 34 4 5 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 48 41 5 6 September 2015^ ................. 45 44 8 3 July 2015^ ............................ 52 38 7 3 June 2015^ ........................... 51 31 14 4 April 2015^ ............................ 57 28 12 3 March 2015^ ......................... 40 38 18 4 Carly Fiorina October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 49 37 10 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 56 30 9 5 September 2015^ ................. 61 28 10 1 July 2015^ ............................ 33 31 34 2 June 2015^ ........................... 31 29 38 2 April 2015^ ............................ 17 25 52 6 March 2015^ ......................... 18 25 54 3 Jeb Bush October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 45 52 1 2 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 51 44 1 4 September 2015^ ................. 55 43 1 1 July 2015^ ............................ 57 40 1 2 June 2015^ ........................... 75 22 2 1 April 2015^ ............................ 70 27 1 2 March 2015^ ......................... 49 42 4 5 Mike Huckabee October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 45 48 3 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 45 50 2 3 September 2015^ ................. 47 46 5 2 July 2015^ ............................ 52 43 3 2 June 2015^ ........................... 65 32 1 2 April 2015^ ............................ 52 39 5 4 March 2015^ ......................... 52 40 3 5 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary





Don’t Know Name

Not Sure

Chris Christie October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 36 54 6 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 34 60 4 2 September 2015^ ................. 42 51 6 1 July 2015^ ............................ 37 55 5 3 June 2015^ ........................... 36 55 6 3 April 2015^ ............................ 38 50 9 3 March 2015^ ......................... 32 57 7 4 Rand Paul October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 32 59 5 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 33 59 4 4 September 2015^ ................. 35 58 5 2 July 2015^ ............................ 44 48 5 3 June 2015^ ........................... 49 45 5 1 April 2015^ ............................ 59 32 6 3 March 2015^ ......................... 49 40 8 3 John Kasich October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 28 46 22 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 26 45 23 6 September 2015^ ................. 34 44 20 2 July 2015^ ............................ 30 31 36 3 June 2015^ ........................... 25 30 42 3 Rick Santorum October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 27 59 9 5 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 28 60 7 5 September 2015^ ................. 33 56 10 1 July 2015^ ............................ 37 46 11 6 June 2015^ ........................... 49 40 10 1 March 2015^ ......................... 40 40 16 4 Bobby Jindal October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 27 49 21 3 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 28 46 21 5 September 2015^ ................. 27 49 23 1 July 2015^ ............................ 34 38 26 2 June 2015^ ........................... 36 28 34 2 March 2015^ ......................... 36 25 36 3 Lindsey Graham October 25-29, 2015^ ........... 13 68 15 4 October 15-18, 2015^ ........... 12 64 18 6 September 2015^ ................. 16 67 16 1 July 2015^ ............................ 14 67 16 3 June 2015^ ........................... 27 49 19 5 March 2015^ ......................... 20 51 24 5 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary


Q20/a And, if a Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor (RANDOMIZE) Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, or Carly Fiorina, or would you vote for one of the other candidates? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK:) And, which of the following candidates would be your second choice (RANDOMIZE REMAINING LIST FROM :1-10) or would your second choice be one of the other candidates? (IF OTHER CANDIDATE FOR FIRST OR SECOND CHOICE IN Q20, THEN ASK:) Which one of the following candidates would you favor -- (RANDOMIZE) Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, or Jim Gilmore?

FIRST CHOICE

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 10/25-

29/15^ 10/15-18/15^ 9/15^ 7/15^ 6/15^ 4/15^

Ben Carson..................... 29 22 20 10 11 7 Donald Trump ................. 23 25 21 19 1 NA Marco Rubio ................... 11 13 11 5 14 18 Ted Cruz ......................... 10 9 5 9 4 11 Jeb Bush ........................ 8 8 7 14 22 23 Carly Fiorina ................... 3 7 11 - 2 1 John Kasich .................... 3 3 6 3 1 NA Mike Huckabee ............... 3 3 2 6 9 5 Chris Christie .................. 3 1 3 3 4 5 Rand Paul ....................... 2 2 3 6 7 11 Jim Gilmore .................... - - - - NA NA Rick Santorum ................ - - 1 1 - NA Bobby Jindal ................... - - 1 1 - NA Lindsey Graham ............. - - - - 1 NA George Pataki ................. - - - - - NA Scott Walker ................... NA NA NA 15 17 14 Rick Perry ....................... NA NA NA 3 5 2 Other (VOL) ................. 1 1 1 - - - None (VOL) ................. 1 1 2 1 1 - Not sure ....................... 3 5 6 4 1 3 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

SECOND CHOICE THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

10/25-29/15^

10/15-18/15^ 9/15^ 7/15^ 6/15^ 4/15^

Ben Carson..................... 20 22 15 11 8 4 Marco Rubio ................... 13 13 15 11 20 23 Ted Cruz ......................... 13 8 6 8 7 7 Donald Trump ................. 12 14 10 11 3 NA Carly Fiorina ................... 11 10 17 2 1 2 Jeb Bush ........................ 6 8 11 16 18 14 Mike Huckabee ............... 5 4 5 5 9 10 Rand Paul ....................... 4 4 3 5 9 9 Chris Christie .................. 4 3 3 6 6 9 John Kasich .................... 3 4 2 1 - NA Bobby Jindal ................... 1 - - 3 - NA Rick Santorum ................ 1 1 1 1 - NA Lindsey Graham ............. - - - - - NA George Pataki ................. - - - - - NA Jim Gilmore .................... - - - - NA NA Scott Walker ................... NA NA NA 9 7 13 Rick Perry ....................... NA NA NA 4 5 5 Other (VOL) ................. 1 - - - - - None (VOL) ................. 1 1 1 1 - - Not sure ....................... 1 2 2 1 3 1 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary


COMBINED CHOICE

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE 10/25-

29/15^ 10/15-18/15^ 9/15^ 7/15^ 6/15^ 4/15^

Ben Carson ................... 50 44 35 21 19 11 Donald Trump ................ 35 39 31 30 4 NA Marco Rubio .................. 24 26 26 16 34 41 Ted Cruz........................ 23 17 11 17 11 18 Jeb Bush ....................... 15 17 19 30 40 37 Carly Fiorina .................. 14 18 28 2 3 3 Mike Huckabee .............. 8 7 8 11 18 15 John Kasich ................... 6 7 8 4 1 NA Rand Paul ...................... 6 6 6 11 16 20 Chris Christie ................. 6 3 5 9 10 14 Bobby Jindal .................. 1 1 1 4 - NA Rick Santorum ............... 1 1 3 2 - NA Jim Gilmore ................... - - - - NA NA Lindsey Graham ............ - - - - 1 NA George Pataki ............... - - - - - NA Scott Walker .................. NA NA NA 24 24 27 Rick Perry ...................... NA NA NA 7 10 7 Other (VOL) ................ 1 1 - - - - None (VOL) ................ 2 2 3 2 1 - Not sure ...................... 5 7 7 5 4 4 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q21/a And, regardless of who you support, which one of the following candidates do you think is most likely to win

the Republican nomination for president in 2016-- (RANDOMIZE :1-10) Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, or Carly Fiorina, or would you vote for one of the other candidates? (IF OTHER CANDIDATE FOR FIRST OR SECOND CHOICE IN Q21, THEN ASK:) Which one of the following candidates do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president in 2016 -- (RANDOMIZE) Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, or Jim Gilmore? ^

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Donald Trump .................................................... 36 Ben Carson ....................................................... 25 Jeb Bush ........................................................... 11 Marco Rubio ...................................................... 9 Ted Cruz ............................................................ 6 Chris Christie ..................................................... 1 Carly Fiorina ...................................................... 1 Mike Huckabee .................................................. 1 John Kasich ....................................................... 1 Rand Paul .......................................................... - Bobby Jindal ...................................................... - Lindsey Graham ................................................ - Rick Santorum ................................................... - George Pataki.................................................... - Jim Gilmore ....................................................... - Other (VOL) .................................................... - None (VOL) .................................................... - Not sure .......................................................... 9 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary


Q22 Which of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to defeat the Democratic candidate and regain the White House? (RANDOMIZE :1-10) Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, or Carly Fiorina, or would you vote for one of the other candidates? (IF OTHER CANDIDATE FOR FIRST OR SECOND CHOICE IN Q22, THEN ASK:) Which one of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to defeat the Democratic candidate and regain the White House -- (RANDOMIZE) Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Bobby Jindal, or Jim Gilmore? ^

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE Donald Trump .................................................... 32 Ben Carson ....................................................... 25 Marco Rubio ...................................................... 12 Jeb Bush ........................................................... 8 Ted Cruz ............................................................ 6 Carly Fiorina ...................................................... 2 Chris Christie ..................................................... 2 Rand Paul .......................................................... 2 John Kasich ....................................................... 1 Mike Huckabee .................................................. 1 Rick Santorum ................................................... 1 Jim Gilmore ....................................................... - Lindsey Graham ................................................ - George Pataki.................................................... - Bobby Jindal ...................................................... - Other (VOL) .................................................... - None (VOL) .................................................... 1 Not sure .......................................................... 7 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q23-Q28 Embargoed for later release Q29 Do you believe that it is more important to have––(ROTATE) a president who stands up for his or her

convictions, OR a president who seeks common ground? (IF "BOTH," ASK:) Well, between the two, which do you think is MORE important?

10/25-

29/15+ 6/07 Stands up for convictions ................. 47 46 Seeks common ground .................... 49 43 Depends (VOL) .............................. 2 8 Not sure .......................................... 2 3 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q30 Embargoed for later release


(Q31 – Q33 RANDOMIZED AMONG REG VOTERS) And, thinking some more about (just one/another) candidate… Q31 How would you rate Hillary Clinton on the following qualities, using a five-point scale, on which a "5" means

a very good rating, a "1" means a very poor rating, and a "3" means a mixed rating? (IF "NOT SURE," RECORD AS "DK.")

TABLE RANKED BY %4-5 (GOOD RATING) AMONG ALL VOTERS

Very Good Rating

Very Poor Rating

Cannot

5 4 3 2 1 Rate Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ......................................................... 37 18 18 9 17 1 October 15-18, 2015+ ......................................................... 39 17 17 8 19 - April 2015+ ......................................................................... 35 16 16 10 22 1 June 2014+ ......................................................................... 35 20 16 7 22 - March 2008+ ....................................................................... 32 18 17 13 18 2 November 2007+ ................................................................ 31 21 17 11 20 - Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^ ....................................................... 70 18 5 4 3 - October 15-18, 2015^^ ....................................................... 74 14 5 2 4 1 April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 66 20 7 - 7 - June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 72 16 6 1 3 2 March 2008^^ ..................................................................... 50 23 15 6 4 2 November 2007^^ .............................................................. 51 25 16 4 4 - June 2007^^ ....................................................................... 48 23 16 7 5 1 Having the right temperament All Voters October 25-29, 2015+* ....................................................... 25 19 18 11 26 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^* ...................................................... 47 34 12 3 4 - Being effective and getting things done All Voters October 25-29, 2015+** ...................................................... 20 22 25 9 23 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 24 20 21 9 25 1 June 2014+ ......................................................................... 22 22 24 10 20 2 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^** ..................................................... 45 29 17 2 7 - April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 47 31 17 2 3 - June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 51 31 12 2 3 1 Being compassionate enough to understand average people All Voters October 25-29, 2015+** ...................................................... 17 23 19 11 30 - April 2015+ ......................................................................... 26 17 18 13 26 - June 2014+ ......................................................................... 29 18 19 10 23 1 March 2008+ ....................................................................... 26 18 23 13 19 1 November 2007+ ................................................................ 23 18 19 12 27 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^** ..................................................... 35 32 18 9 6 - April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 48 27 15 6 3 1 June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 57 23 12 3 5 - March 2008^^ ..................................................................... 40 24 20 8 7 1 November 2007^^ ............................................................... 42 27 18 7 5 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. ^^ Results shown reflect responses among Democratic Primary Voters (definitions of Democratic Primary Voters vary prior to 2014) * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).



Very Good Rating

Very Poor Rating

Cannot

5 4 3 2 1 Rate Having a vision for the country’s future All Voters October 25-29, 2015+* ....................................................... 21 18 18 12 29 2 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 20 21 20 7 31 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^* ...................................................... 45 29 20 2 4 - April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 41 34 19 1 5 - June 2007^ ......................................................................... 32 30 24 7 6 1 Sharing your positions on the issues All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ......................................................... 18 20 19 10 33 - October 15-18, 2015+ ......................................................... 18 20 20 10 31 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 17 18 24 9 31 1 June 2014+ ......................................................................... 20 18 23 10 26 2 March 2008+ ....................................................................... 16 18 22 12 29 3 November 2007+ ................................................................ 16 20 19 12 32 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^ ....................................................... 39 32 21 3 4 1 October 15-18, 2015^^ ....................................................... 36 35 19 4 6 - April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 37 32 22 4 4 1 June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 47 29 17 2 5 - March 2008^^ ..................................................................... 29 27 25 7 9 3 November 2007^^ .............................................................. 31 30 25 8 6 - June 2007^^ ....................................................................... 25 29 29 8 7 2 Being an inspirational and an exciting choice for president All Voters October 25-29, 2015+* ....................................................... 22 14 15 10 38 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 25 13 16 6 39 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^* ...................................................... 37 32 19 4 7 1 April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 47 23 18 5 7 - June 2007^^ ........................................................................ 25 25 26 12 11 1 Having high personal standards that set the proper moral tone for the country All Voters October 25-29, 2015+** ...................................................... 15 21 17 9 37 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 23 20 17 7 32 1 June 2014+ ......................................................................... 28 18 23 6 22 3 March 2008+ ....................................................................... 23 17 21 12 25 2 November 2007+ ................................................................ 19 17 21 10 32 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^** ..................................................... 31 36 19 5 8 1 April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 46 30 18 5 1 - June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 53 24 16 2 4 1 March 2008^^ ..................................................................... 34 27 20 7 10 2 November 2007^^ .............................................................. 35 26 24 7 7 1 Being willing to compromise and find consensus All Voters October 25-29, 2015+** ...................................................... 14 21 26 12 26 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 22 19 22 11 25 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^** ..................................................... 29 33 23 9 4 2 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 44 31 19 4 1 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. ^^ Results shown reflect responses among Democratic Primary Voters (definitions of Democratic Primary Voters vary prior to 2014) * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).


TABLE RANKED BY %4-5 (GOOD RATING) AMONG ALL VOTERS Very Good

Rating Very Poor

Rating

Cannot 5 4 3 2 1 Rate Being easygoing and likable All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ......................................................... 16 17 24 12 31 - October 15-18, 2015+ ......................................................... 17 16 24 14 29 - April 2015+ ......................................................................... 23 18 21 13 24 1 June 2014+ ......................................................................... 23 17 29 10 21 1 March 2008+ ....................................................................... 18 12 30 16 23 1 November 2007+ ................................................................ 15 17 25 13 29 1 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^ ....................................................... 29 26 31 8 6 - October 15-18, 2015^^ ....................................................... 32 27 28 8 5 - April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 41 27 21 9 1 1 June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 45 22 23 6 4 - March 2008^^ ..................................................................... 27 18 31 13 9 2 November 2007^^ .............................................................. 26 23 30 11 9 1 Bringing real change to the direction of the country All Voters October 25-29, 2015+* ....................................................... 16 15 22 15 31 1 October 15-18, 2015+ ......................................................... 14 18 24 12 31 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 17 18 22 10 32 2 Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^* ...................................................... 29 28 31 6 5 1 October 15-18, 2015^^ ....................................................... 28 30 26 7 8 1 April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 32 35 25 3 4 - June 2007^^ ........................................................................ 33 28 22 8 8 1 Being honest and straightforward All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ......................................................... 12 15 20 11 42 - October 15-18, 2015+ ......................................................... 13 13 23 10 40 1 April 2015+ ......................................................................... 12 13 23 7 43 2 June 2014+ ......................................................................... 19 19 21 11 29 1 March 2008+ ....................................................................... 18 15 21 15 28 3 November 2007+ ................................................................ 17 16 22 12 33 - Democratic primary voters October 25-29, 2015^^ ....................................................... 24 28 28 10 9 1 October 15-18, 2015^^ ....................................................... 25 28 30 6 10 1 April 2015^^ ........................................................................ 27 25 34 3 11 - June 2014^^ ........................................................................ 44 31 15 4 6 - March 2008^^ ..................................................................... 29 23 26 9 10 3 November 2007^^ .............................................................. 30 23 29 10 8 - + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. ^^ Results shown reflect responses among Democratic Primary Voters (definitions of Democratic Primary Voters vary prior to 2014) * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).


And, thinking some more about (just one/another) candidate… Q32 How would you rate Donald Trump on the following qualities, using a five-point scale, on which a "5" means

a very good rating, a "1" means a very poor rating, and a "3" means a mixed rating? (IF "NOT SURE," RECORD AS "DK.")


Very Good Rating

Very Poor Rating

Cannot

5 4 3 2 1 Rate Being effective and getting things done All Voters October 25-29, 2015+** .................................................... 28 20 18 12 21 1 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^** .................................................... 49 23 15 6 7 - Being honest and straightforward All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 25 17 21 12 24 1 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 36 25 20 9 10 - Sharing your positions on the issues All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 16 15 22 11 35 1 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 27 24 28 9 10 2 Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 10 14 21 13 42 - Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 19 23 29 11 17 1 Being easygoing and likable All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 9 8 25 18 39 1 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 12 15 35 18 19 1 Having the right temperament All Voters October 25-29, 2015+* ..................................................... 7 7 23 16 47 - Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^* ...................................................... 13 11 34 19 23 - + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).


And, thinking some more about (just one/another) candidate… Q33 How would you rate Jeb Bush on the following qualities, using a five-point scale, on which a "5" means a

very good rating, a "1" means a very poor rating, and a "3" means a mixed rating? (IF "NOT SURE," RECORD AS "DK.")


Very Good Rating

Very Poor Rating

Cannot

5 4 3 2 1 Rate Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency

All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 17 26 31 10 13 3 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 25 32 28 7 7 1 Being easygoing and likable All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 14 24 34 12 12 4 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 20 31 34 7 7 1 Having the right temperament All Voters October 25-29, 2015+* ..................................................... 12 23 36 13 12 4 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^* ...................................................... 18 21 44 11 5 1 Being honest and straightforward All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 11 21 37 12 15 4 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 18 29 35 8 8 2 Being effective and getting things done All Voters October 25-29, 2015+** .................................................... 7 18 43 16 11 5 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^** .................................................... 12 26 39 11 8 4 Sharing your positions on the issues All Voters October 25-29, 2015+ ....................................................... 7 14 36 17 21 5 Republican primary voters October 25-29, 2015^ ....................................................... 10 24 44 12 9 1 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).


Thinking about something else… Q34 Have you seen, read, or heard the news coverage about Congressional testimony recently given by Former

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about the death of four Americans in an attack a few years ago on a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Benghazi, Libya? (IF YES:) And, have you seen, read, or heard a lot or just some about this?

TOTAL YES 79 Yes, a lot ..................... 40 Yes, just some ............ 39 No ................................. 21 Not sure ....................... -

Q35 Based on what you have seen, read, or heard from Hillary Clinton regarding the terrorist attack a few years

ago on a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Benghazi, Libya, are you basically satisfied or not satisfied with her response? If you do not know enough about this issue to have an opinion, please just say so.

10/25-

29/15 10/15-18/15

Satisfied ........................................... 30 27 Not satisfied ..................................... 38 44 Don’t know enough .......................... 30 28 Not sure ......................................... 2 1

Q36 Republicans in Congress are holding an investigation into the death of four Americans in an attack a few

years ago on a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Benghazi, Libya. From what you have seen, read, or heard, would this investigation be better described as being (ROTATE) fair and impartial or unfair and too partisan? If you do not know enough about this issue to have an opinion, please just say so.

10/25-

29/15 10/15-18/15

Fair and impartial.............................. 27 29 Unfair and too partisan ..................... 40 36 Don’t know enough ........................... 32 35 Not sure .......................................... 1 -

Q37 Now, thinking about what you have seen, read, or heard about Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server

during her time as Secretary of State, would you say it IS or it is NOT an important factor in your deciding whether to vote for her as president. If you do not know enough about this issue to have an opinion, please just say so. (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK) Do you feel that way strongly or not so strongly?

10/25-

29/15 10/15-18/15

TOTAL IS IMPORTANT 42 47 Is important – Strongly ........................ 37 40 Is important – Not so strongly .............. 5 7 TOTAL IS NOT IMPORTANT 48 44 Is not important – Not so strongly ........ 15 12 Is not important – Strongly .................. 33 32 Don’t know enough ............................... 9 8 Not sure .............................................. 1 1

Q38 Embargoed for later release


Talking some more about you… Q39 Which of the following comes closest to describing your financial situation today? (ROTATE TOP TO

BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)

10/25-29/15 11/14 8/14

Getting ahead ................................. 25 23 25 Staying where you are ................... 53 48 48 Slipping behind ............................... 12 16 16 Falling backward ............................ 9 13 9 Not sure ........................................ 1 - 2


Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November

2012 election for president? (IF “YES,” ASK:) For whom did you vote––Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? +

Voted for Barack Obama ............................... 43 Voted for Mitt Romney ................................... 33 Voted for someone else ................................. 8 Not sure ......................................................... 1 No, Did Not Vote ............................................ 13 Not sure ....................................................... 2 + Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

QF1d And did you happen to vote in the 2014 election for U.S. Congress? +

Yes, voted ............................................................... 63 No, did not vote ....................................................... 31 Not sure .................................................................. 6

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters. QF2 Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do?

(RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-at-home mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work?

Currently Employed Professional, manager ............................ 28 White-collar worker ................................. 17 Blue-collar worker ................................... 16 Farmer, rancher ...................................... 1 Not Currently Employed Student .................................................... 3 Stay at home mom/dad ........................... 5 Retired .................................................... 25 Unemployed, looking for work ................. 3 Other ....................................................... - Not sure ................................................ 2

QF3 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.)

Grade school ........................................................... 1 Some high school .................................................... 4 High school graduate ............................................... 22 Some college, no degree ......................................... 18 Vocational training/School ...................................... 2 2-year college degree .............................................. 11 4-year college/bachelor's degree ............................. 24 Some postgraduate work, no degree ....................... 3 2-3 years postgraduate work/master's degree ......... 12 Doctoral/law degree ................................................. 3 Not sure/refused .................................................... -


QF4 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")

Strong Democrat ............................. 20 Not very strong Democrat ............... 11 Independent/lean Democrat ............ 12 Strictly Independent ......................... 13 Independent/lean Republican .......... 13 Not very strong Republican ............. 8 Strong Republican ........................... 16 Other (VOL) ................................... 5 Not sure ......................................... 2

QF5 Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)?

Very liberal ......................................................... 10 Somewhat liberal ............................................... 16 Moderate ............................................................ 35 Somewhat conservative ..................................... 18 Very conservative .............................................. 19 Not sure ........................................................... 2

(QF5a-f READ ONLY IF Q14:2 - REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS) And, On a scale from one to ten where ten represents a description that is perfect for you and one a description that is totally wrong for you, how well do each of the following describe you? You can, of course, use any number between one and ten. __ __ (RECORD EXACT NUMBER 1-10, USE 99 FOR DK/REF) To what extent do you regard yourself as...(RANDOMIZE)

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY %8-10 AMONG REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS 8-10 4-7 1-3 Refused Mean

A supporter of the traditional definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman October 25-29, 2015^ ........................ 74 11 14 1 8.2 A supporter of the Right-to-Life movement October 25-29, 2015^ ........................ 61 27 11 1 7.6 Someone who enjoys listening to conservative talk radio October 25-29, 2015^ ........................ 36 35 29 - 5.7 A supporter of the Tea Party Movement October 25-29, 2015^ ........................ 28 45 24 3 5.6 A Libertarian October 25-29, 2015^ ........................ 10 35 49 6 3.7 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary


QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member?

Labor union member ........................................ 12 Union household .............................................. 7 Non-union household ....................................... 80 Not sure .......................................................... 1

QF7 How often do you attend services at a church, synagogue, mosque, or other place of worship? (READ

LIST.)

Never ....................................... 23 Once a year ............................. 7 A few times a year ................... 20 Once a month .......................... 5 About twice a month ................ 8 Once a week or more often ...... 35 Not sure ................................. 2

QF8 If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year,

would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, or would the total be more than that?

Less than $10,000 ............................................... 4 Between $10,000 and $20,000............................ 8 Between $20,000 and $30,000............................ 10 Between $30,000 and $40,000............................ 8 Between $40,000 and $50,000............................ 8 Between $50,000 and $75,000............................ 16 Between $75,000 and $100,000.......................... 14 More than $100,000 ............................................ 25 Not sure/refused ................................................. 7

QF9 Do you personally know or work with someone who is gay or lesbian?

10/25-29/15 3/15 4/13 12/12 5/12 3/12 3/04

Yes .............................. 72 77 79 65 67 64 62 No ................................ 26 22 20 33 30 33 35 Not sure ..................... 2 1 1 2 3 3 3

15463 nbcwsj late october poll 11-3-15 release

Documents

margin of error

registered voters

cell phone

hispanic vol

republican primary voters

democratic primary voters

address cell

statistical purposes