18 june 2021 climate from earth and space – esa climate
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE FROM EARTH AND SPACE – ESA
Climate from Space – communicating beyond science and policy
18 June 2021
AGENDA• Tracking climate change: ESA’s long-term records• Climate change from space: research results• New ESA missions• Tools for new audiences
Carbon dioxide – then and now
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
CO2
ppm
Atmospheric CO2 concentration
803,719 BCE 2020600,00 BCE 400,00 BCE 200,00 BCE
§ Highest for over 800,000 years
§ Unprecedented emissions in 20th
century
§ CO2 and CH4 are at their highest levels on record
Bereiter et al, GRL, 2015
Taking the Pulse of our Planet
ESA’s Vision for EO
Satellites25 under development
15 in operation
ESA-Developed Earth Observation Missions
Tracking climate change: ‘Essential Climate Variables’
• Established 2010• €160M • 450 researchers• 13 now operational
(Copernicus)
CARBON from space • In 2020, despite
lockdown, CO2 hit 413 ppm
• CO2 has a clear upward trend 0.6% per year
• Methane is also up 0.4% per year
SEA ICE shrinking is widespread
[Sea_Ice_CCI_FM.mp4]
• 2020 was 2nd lowest minima on record• Long term decline of 78,000 km2 per
year• Arctic amplification as darker ocean is
exposed
ARCTIC ICE LOSS DIRECTLY FOLLOWS ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS
• For every ton of CO2 emitted, 3m2 of sea ice is lost.
• Ice-free Arctic expected by 2050
GLOBAL WARMING SEEN FROM SPACEGlobal Sea Surface Temp anomaly trends 1981-2018 relative to 1982-2010 period.
Degrees C change per decade Bulgin et al, Sci Rep, 2020
• SST drives many weather and climate processes
• Trends of 0.11℃ per decade excluding perennial ice
OCEAN SALINITY from space• Saline areas
getting saltier• Freshwater areas
getting fresher• Intensification of
the hydrological cycle
SEA LEVEL RISE IS ACCELERATING
• Global mean sea level is rising 3.3mm per year and accelerating
• Copernicus Sentinel-6 is extending the record with unprecedented resolution
• Sea level rise is different everywhere & made worse by sinking coastlines
• Tacking subsidence more effective than mitigation for saving lives up to 2050
Mimura, N., NCC. (2021).
ANTARCTIC AND GREENLAND ICE SHEETSEl
evat
ion
chan
ge (m
/yr)
-1
+1
Ocean tem
perature (°C)-2 +1
#FIMC2021
SEA LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ICE SHEETS
IMBIE, Nature, 2019&2020, Slater et al, NCC, 2020
ICE SHEETS CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE
[IMBIE video]
• Consolidated estimates of ice sheet loss
• Greenland losing ice seven times faster then 1990s
• Losses on track for IPCC worst-case climate warming scenario
• Puts 44-66 million people at risk of annual coastal flooding by 2100
RECENT ACCELERATION IN GLACIER RETREAT
Hugonnet et al, Nature, 2021
The Earth’s glaciers have lost as much ice as both ice sheets combined over two decades
Kaab et al, The Cryosphere, 2021
SUDDEN GLACIER FLOWS akin to avalanches - more common than thought
PERMAFROST THAW IN THE ARCTIC
Tem
pera
ture
at d
epth
℃
Credit: G Hugelius
Permafrost CCI[Permafrost video]
Permafrost CCI, Obu et al,. 2019 via the CEDA archive
LAKE HEATWAVES and stratification
Woolway et al., Nature, 2021
• Lakes are sensitive to climatic change.• Thermal habitat moving faster than ability of
species to disperse: likely worse negative consequences than land or ocean ecosystems
Woolway et al, Nat Comms, 2021 Woolway and Maberly, NCC, 2020
TRACKING Fires• The modelling community needs a global fire time series that exceeds 30 years.• More than 4 million km2 burnt globally per year (area of India+Pakistan).• Human development is a main factor (more than weather) in driving global interannual variability in burnt area.• African fire emissions 80% higher than previously thought, doubling emissions estimates.
Lizundia-Loiola et al., Rem. Sens., 2020; Chuvieco et al, Sci of the Total Environ. 2021; Ramo et al, PNAS, 2021
CARBON SINKS: Biomass from space
[Biomass video]
• New maps for 2010, 2017 and 2018 at 100m
• Vegetation biomass is a key carbon sink, drawing down CO2 from the atmosphere
• Maps aim to support forest management, emissions reduction and inform Paris commitments, REDD+
CRISTAL – Polar Ice & Snow Topography
CIMR – Passive Microwave Radiometer
CO2M - Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring
CHIME – Hyperspectral Imaging Mission
ROSE-L – L-band SAR Mission
LST – Land Surface Temperature Mission
Causes of Climate Change
Agriculture & Urban Management
Effects ofClimate Change
Food Security, Soil, Minerals, Biodiversity
Sea: Surface Temp. & Ice Concentration
Vegetation & Ground Motion & Moisture
Copernicus: Sentinel Expansion Missions
Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) Mission
Artists impression of CO2M Mission. Credit: OHB
Copernicus Land Surface Temperature Mission (LSTM)• To increase agricultural production
by monitoring crop stress• Temp at 30-50m resolution: 400
times finer than currently possible• Relevance: drought, heatwaves,
urban heat islands, permafrost thaw
COPERNICUS IMAGING MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (CIMR)
• A game-changer for Earth observation: microwaves unaffected by cloud
• Focus is Arctic ‘no hole at the pole’• 99% global coverage after 1.5 days• Contributions to many climate variables
FORUM – ESA’s 9th Earth Explorer• Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation
Understanding and Monitoring• Will evaluate the role of far IR in
shaping current climate: benefit for NWP and climate projection
• Improved detection of ice clouds
CLIMATE FROM SPACE - WEB APP
à https://cfs.climate.esa.int
§ Explore the climate via 40 years of satellite data
§ 3D Globes & maps
§ Pinch, zoom, scroll
§ Select specific datasets
§ ‘Climate stories’
§ PC | Mobile |Tablet
§ Supporting lesson plans
[CfS video]
ESA CLIMATE CLASSROOM RESOURCES
§ Primary & Secondary (upper and lower)§ Teacher guide & Student worksheets § Integrates use of ESA’s Climate from Space web app§ Supports STEM curricula§ Languages Eng – end Q2 DE, FR, ES, NL
à climate.esa.int/educate
