18/07/2013 modelling land use dynamics in support of ... · bevolkingsomvang vlaanderen bau se ge...

18/07/2013

Modelling land use dynamics in support of Spatial

Planning and Policy-making in Flanders, Belgium

Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Lien Poelmans, Jean-Luc de Kok and Leen Van Esch

VITO, Environmental Modelling Unit, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium

Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved

The aims

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Aims: Policy-support and Research

» New Spatial Planning Policy to be presented in the Flemish parliament in March 2014;

» Defining short-term policy goals which are consistent with long-term plans and visions;

» Integrating uncertainties caused by societal choices in policy preparation Scenarios;

» Experimenting with new scientific tools in support of practical spatial planning: enabling exploration and foresight;

» Land use modelling as an integrating element in scenario-analysis;

» Usefulness of high-resolution land use models for long-term explorations in spatial planning;

» Usage of the model outcomes by spatial planners.

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Po

licy-m

akin

g

Researc

h

http://www.rwo.be/

http://www.steunpuntruimteenwonen.be/steunpuntruimteenwonen

http://www.beleidsplanruimte.be/


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Flanders Region

308 municipalities

±13,000 km2


18/07/2013 5

Brussels Region

19 municipalities

±750 km2

Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussel

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst

Leuven

Brugge

Hasselt

Kortrijk

Turnhout

Roeselare


The model

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1,375,000 cells1 ha

37 land uses

Gent

Antwerpen

Brussel

Mechelen Runs 2010-2050

Simulation in 20 min.

Timestep / Output 1 year

RuimteModel Flanders (White, Engelen, Uljee, 1997)

CCA Land use dynamics

2010 - 2050

Natural not managed (5)

Natural managed (6)

Agricultural (6)

Other (8)

Socio-economic (15)

Socio-economic (15)


RuimteModel: Constrained Cellular Automata (White, Engelen, Uljee, 1993; EU-JRC MOLAND, 2007)

Cellular Automata

Land use dynamics

at Cell level 1 ha (1,375,000)

Zoning & legislation

Accessibility

Physical suitability

Quasi-static cell characteristics

Spatial Interaction Based

Trends and (re-)location of population,

Economic activity, Nature, Agriculture, ...

at arrondissement level (23)

Local level

Global level

Regional level


The scenarios

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18/07/2013 11 © 2011, VITO NV

4 Worldviews for Flanders – (2010-2050)

International

Regional

Governments Private sector

Worldviews

= Scenario families

Flanders as we

know it today

Explorations - Contextual scenarios - Plausible futures - IPCC-SRES

Key uncertainties

= Societal choices

Key uncertainties

= Societal choices Strong Europe

Global Economy

Regional Communities

Transatlantic Markets

http://www.rwo.be/



18/07/2013 12 © 2011, VITO NV

4 Worldviews for Flanders – (2010-2050)

Strong Europe Global

Economy



Explorations - Contextual scenarios - Plausible futures - IPCC-SRES

International

Regional


- United Europe

- Solidarity, redistribution

- Government intervention

- Environmental concern

- Immigration uniting families

- Freedom and individualism

- Global markets

- Technological development

- Strong grow

- Strong immigration

- Separated global regions

- Safety

- New coalitions

- Selective immigration

- Repressive government tasks

- Regional identity

- Local production/consumption

- Solidarity

- Decentralised government,

- Limited government spending

Business as Usual (BAU) - Continuation of known trends

- Same government intervention

- Continued policies on environment,

energy, social security, etc.

http://www.rwo.be/



18/07/2013 13 © 2011, VITO NV

Procedure

Qualitative

analysis WVs

WLO reverse

engineering

systems

analysis

Expert

Workshop

Analysis

of relevant

characteristics

Welvaart &

LeefOmgeving

WLO (2006)

scenarios

Netherlands

2000-2040

Inspiration and

global trends

and numbers

Worldviews

Quantifying and modelling

with RuimteModel

1 Development of BAU+ 2010-2050

2 Definition Global model per WV

trends population, employment

Spatial claims nature/agriculture

3 Definition Regional model per WV

parameters per WV

4 Definition Local model per WV

Validation of spatial paterns

intra-WV en inter-WV


BAU: Flanders: +720,000; Brussels: +220,000

18/07/2013 14 Source: ADSEI, FPB

Reference: Population 2010-2050


Reference:

Employment

» Brussels + Flanders:

A modest growth:

+/- 3,226,000 in 2010

+/- 3,500,000 in 2050

» Decline in industry;

Growth in commerce;

Growth in services.

18/07/2013 15 Source: ADSEI, FPB/BFP, RSV, employment in seaports

BAU 2010

industrie

handel

diensten

havens

overig residentieel, commercieel, industrieel

BAU 2050industrie

handel

diensten

havens

overig residentieel, commercieel, industrieel

Industry

Commerce

Services

Seaports

Other

(self employed)

Industry

Commerce

Services

Seaports

Other

(self employed)

Flanders Economic mix 2010

Flanders Economic mix 2050


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Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussel

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst

Leuven

Brugge

Hasselt

Kortrijk

Turnhout

Land use 2010

Land use 2050


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Contiguous Open spaces 2010

Contiguous Open spaces 2050

Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussel

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst

Leuven

Brugge

Hasselt

Kortrijk

Turnhout

Growth of urbanised area:

Residential: +/- 5 ha per day !!

Other: +/- 2 ha per day !!

http://www.vmm.be/

18/07/2013 18 © 2011, VITO NV

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

bevolkingsomvang Vlaanderen

BAU

SE

GE

RC

TA

Population Flanders

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

totale tewerkstelling Vlaanderen

BAU

SE

GE

RC

TA

Employment Flanders

Spatial claim Nature Flanders

4 Worldviews: Global level

18/07/2013 20 © 2011, VITO NV

TA SE GE RC

4 Worldviews: Regional level

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Diensten - Alpha2

Current value

0.0651731

Diensten - m Current

value 1.58966

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Industrie -

Afstandsgevoeligheid

Current value 0.886

Diensten -


Current value 0.25

Soc.Cult. -


Current value 1.17

Wonen Dun -


Current value 2

+ ++

+

++

- --

---

18/07/2013 22 © 2011, VITO NV

4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Land use


Economy



International

Regional


- United Europe






- Global markets


- Strong grow



- Safety

- New coalitions



- Regional identity

- Local government, decentralised


- Solidarity


Antwerpen

Mechelen

St. Niklaas

Antwerpen

Mechelen

St. Niklaas

Antwerpen

Mechelen

St. Niklaas

Antwerpen

Mechelen

St. Niklaas

http://www.rwo.be/



18/07/2013 23 © 2011, VITO NV

4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Population density


Economy



International

Regional


- United Europe






- Global markets


- Strong grow



- Safety

- New coalitions



- Regional identity



- Solidarity


-2 - 2 2 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 > 50 < -50 -20 - -50 -10 - -20 -5 - -10 -2 - -5

Turnhout

Antwerpen

Geel

Turnhout

Antwerpen

Geel

Turnhout

Antwerpen

Geel

Turnhout

Antwerpen

Geel

http://www.rwo.be/



18/07/2013 24 © 2011, VITO NV

4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Monte Carlo - Urban


Economy



International

Regional


- United Europe






- Global markets


- Strong grow



- Safety

- New coalitions



- Regional identity



- Solidarity


Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussels

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst Leuven

Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussels

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst Leuven

Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussels

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst Leuven

Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussels

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst Leuven

346315 Cells with probability

to urbanise >0

Cells that urbanise

Antwerpen

Mechelen

Brussels

St. Niklaas

Gent

Aalst

Leuven

http://www.rwo.be/



18/07/2013 25 © 2011, VITO NV

4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Monte Carlo - Nature


Economy



International

Regional


- United Europe






- Global markets


- Strong grow



- Safety

- New coalitions



- Regional identity



- Solidarity


http://www.rwo.be/




Conclusions

» Flanders will be faced with continued urban sprawl and pressure on its open spaces;

» Worldviews entail distinctly different challenges to spatial planning. Robust policy instruments are to be developed;

» Working with existing worldviews led to good results rapidly;

» RuimteModel Flanders enabled representing 89% of all scenario characteristics;

» Spatial indicators more than land use results were well received by the spatial planners;

» Land use modelling supports Research by Design as practiced in Spatial Planning.

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