ANTICIPATING THE “INEVITABLE WAR”

1899-1914

THE WARS OF THE EARLY 20th CENTURY

From colonial to industrial warfare

1- THE SECOND BOER WAR (1899-1902)

A war between Europeans in South Africa

1895: the Jameson Raid

PHASE 1: BRITISH DEFEATS

British military tactics: processes used against non-European peoples

(colonial warfare)

Step 1: to provoke contact with the enemy

Step 2: the use of superior firepower (riffles + machine guns + artillery) = swift

destruction of the enemy

PHASE 2: THE BOERS ON THE DEFENSIVE

The Boers: pre-emptive strikes into British-held

territory

British reinforcements = defensive

tactic

The good use of modern armament

TOWARDS A “TOTAL WAR”

Lord Roberts’ overall military strategy: the occupation of enemy

territory + the destruction of its

resources + the deportation of civilians

Phase 3: guerilla warfare

A NEW TYPE OF WAR

Lord Kitchener: anti-guerilla warfare

against European populations

2- THE RUSSO-JAPANESE WAR (1904-1905)

Industrial warfare

Rival imperial ambitions over Manchuria and Korea

Russia: the need for a warm water port (Port Arthur)

No compromise reached= war

THE LESSONS OF THE WAR

JAPAN

1- Frontal attacks unsuccessful due to modern rifles and machine-guns

2- War of attrition + disorganization of Russian lines = successes

3- The role of modern artillery: the number of firing rounds per minute increased dramatically + better accuracy

RUSSIA

1- The massive use of artillery = movements limited in daylight

2- The need to build a complex network of trenches + underground fortifications

3- The evacuation of wounded made more difficult

3- THE BALKAN WARS (1912-1913)

The use of the artillery + war of

trenches

Frontal attacks unsuccessful +

heavy casualties

Atrocities against civilian

populations

ANTICIPATING THE WAR: THE RISE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW

The Treaty of Westphalia (1648): the sovereignty of states

International law: a weak concept until the mid 1860s

1864: THE FIRST GENEVA CONVENTION

1864: THE BIRTH OF THE RED CROSS

The Battle of Solferino (1859)Henri Dunant

THE HAGUE CONFERENCES 1899-1907

Nicolas II

A peace conference for the

limitation of armaments Safeguarding

the human rights of

individuals involved in

armed conflicts

THREE SECTIONS

The peaceful resolution of international conflicts

Laws and customs for the conduct of war on land

The extension of the Geneva Convention of 1864 to naval warfare

THE SECOND HAGUE CONFERENCE (1907)

“Hostilities [between nations] must not commence without previous and explicit

warning” “The territory of a neutral power is

inviolable.” The use of floating mines was

forbidden

A PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION

The Court’s voluntary character

Diplomatic crisis prior to

1914 NOT submitted to

the process of international arbitration

ANTICIPATING THE WAR: THE MILITARY

The public’s admiration for the Army and its leaders

The fear of a devastating war

Moltke “the elder”: future European war to last several

years (1889)

NO decisive battle

SOCIAL DARWINISM

“We have won our position through the

sharpness of our sword, not through the

sharpness of our mind”

HOW TO PREVENT A TWO-FRONT WAR

BELGIUM NEUTRALITY: AN “UNIMPORTANT OBSTACLE”

The Treaty of London

(1839): Belgium

neutrality guaranteed in

perpetuity

THE SCHLIEFFEN PLAN

Impossible to manage and supply an army of millions for a long time = the need

to win through a series of decisive military

engagements

THE RESERVES

Schlieffen: the use of reserve units in the front

line against prevailing military doctrine to achieve superiority in numbers

The French officer corps: “Les réserves, c’est zéro”!!!

THE FRENCH PLAN XVII

OFFENSIVE TO THE LIMIT

1913 Field Regulations: “The French

Army, returning to its tradition, henceforth admits no

law but the offensive”

“That blind and imbecile attachment to the most visible of all colors”

AN OFFENSIVE-MINDED COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF

General Joffre

No need for ‘defensive-minded’

officers in the French army

RENEWING WITH TRADITION: THE FURIA FRANCESE

Colonel de Grandmaison: a defensive strategy = moral inferiority leading to

defeat

Correct assessment but… 30 years too soon!!!

Offensive to the limit vs. machine-guns and heavy artillery

THE GERMANS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES

“Big Bertha” (1911)

THE RUSSIAN STEAM ROLLER

The threat of the Russian

steam roller on Germany’s

eastern frontier

RUSSIA’S MILITARY DEFFECTS

Russia’s railways inadequate

Inability to produce enough artillery shells and riffle cartridges

Poor intelligence

Poor organization & planning

Promotion of officers through patronage

ANTICIPATING A WAR: PUBLIC OPINIONS

European public opinions rejected the idea of war

UNLESSThe nation’s interests were to be

threatened

FATALISM

‘Germany and the Next War’ (1911)

General von Bernhardi

War is a ‘biological necessity’

Germany must strike the first blow: France must be completely

crushed

GERMAN PUBLIC OPINION AND THE BALKAN WARS

INEVITABLE confrontation between Germanic and Slavic peoples

The Russian menace over GermanyRussian rearmament + investments in a

strategic network of railways = the Schlieffen Plan threatened

The idea of a PREVENTIVE WAR

FRENCH PUBLIC OPINION: NO TO WAR

The loss of Alsace-Lorraine in 1871 NOT a cause for war with Germany

Legislative elections

(May 1914): progression

of the Socialists

RUSSIA: URBAN vs. RURAL PUBLIC OPINIONS

Great enthusiasm in cities at the news of the German declaration of war (August 1)

Saint-Petersburg renamed Petrograd

The rural majority overwhelmingly ignorant or indifferent

GREAT BRITAIN: PACIFISM + INDIFFERENCE

British public opinion preoccupied with internal crises

Constitutional crisis over the powers of the House of Lords

Widespread strikes + the suffragettes movement

The question of Home Rule in Ireland

BRITISH PACIFISM

Plans to commemorate the battle of Waterloo in 1915: one hundred years of peace

1912: a new magazine, The Peacemaker, to celebrate Anglo-

German friendship

A GENERAL WAR IMPOSSIBLE?

The Great Illusion by Norman Angell (1910): economic interdependence of

nations = war is unprofitable

A 20th century war would be on such a scale to make war

‘unthinkable’

EUROPE IN 1914

Fatalism BUT public opinions against the idea of war

Less diplomatic tensions following the end of the second Balkan war

The Sarajevo assassination: the spark