19-04-23

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004

Enhancing Transparency in Reporting the Effects of Policies and MeasuresMerrilee Bonney

Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment,

Netherlands

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 2 

Effects: of what on what?

•Which effects?

•Emission reductions

•Costs (for whom?)

•Which policy or policies?

•Measures versus instruments

•Status of instruments

•Effects relative to what reference situation?

•Socio-economic assumptions

•Assumptions about other policies

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 3 

Estimating emission reduction impacts: measures versus instruments

•Effect of measure depends on

•Reference technique or situation

•Penetration

•Conversion factors (primary energy saved)

•Emission factors

•Effectiveness of policy instruments depends on

•Free-rider effects (corrected for attention effect)

•Rebound effects

•Baumol effects

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 4 

Estimating emission reduction impacts: individual instruments versus clusters of instruments?

more wind power

Barrier

Measure

Instrument

investment cost

siting issues

relative kwh price

agreements

tax breaks

subsidy

non-transparency

consumer info

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 5 

Reporting on the effect of a particular policy instrument

emission reduction effect

policy at issue

other policies

autonomous developments:

•economic

•demographic

•technologic

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 6 

Reporting on the total effect of policies: the importance of the reference scenario (1)

NC3: effect of (additional) policies since 1999 (in NCPIP)

Reference: emissions in 2010 without instruments announced in NCPIP, but with instruments introduced between 1990 and 1998

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2010

Effect reported in NC3

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 7 

Reporting on the total effect of policies: the importance of the reference scenario (2)

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

NC4: effect of all policies since 1990

Reference: emissions in 2010 without instruments introduced after 1990

Effect to be reported in NC4

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 8 

Estimating Cost and Cost Effectiveness: policy instruments versus emission reduction measures

Question Cost Method

Emission reduction

How cost effective is measure for target group?

Which measures most attractive from national

viewpoint?How efficient is policy

instrument?

How much does gov’t spend on instrument?

financial costs

national costs

government

government

total

total

due to policy instrument

--

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 9 

Methods for estimating costs

•Financial Costs for final users (of measures)•Market energy prices•Prevailing interest rates•Including subsidies and taxes

•National costs for the Netherlands (of measures)•Shadow prices for energy•Social discount rate•Excluding taxes and subsidies

•Government costs (of policy instruments)•Outlays for staffing, research, subsidies;

foregone revenues of tax breaks

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication, Dublin, September 30- October 1, 2004 10 

Issues for NC4

•Transparency regarding status of policies

•Costs, non-mitigation benefits, how policies interact with other policies

•Additional requirements based on Marrakech Accords•Supplementarity•Sustainable development• IMO/ICAO•Minimize adverse impacts

•Use of Kyoto mechanisms

•Comparability with NC3