1999 Annual Meeting

September 24-26, 1999

Keynote SpeakerPhelim Boyle, University of Waterloo

Program ChairGordon Sick, University of Calgary

ArrangementsAlli Nathan, University of Calgary

Mary Kelly, University of Calgary and Wilfrid Laurier University

Scurfield Hall

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Welcome to Calgary

I'd like to acknowledge the contributions of many people for the work they have done to organizethis conference.• Vijay Jog provided many useful tips and procedures on the background of this informal

association. Vijay is the Grand Man of the Northern Finance Association who conceived of thefirst NFA conference and who has nurtured them over the years.

• Laurence Booth organized the 1998 conference and offered many do's and don'ts and time-saving tips. Moreover, Laurence sent us a cheque for the money left over from the previousconference. We intend to do the same for NFA00.

• Usha Mittoo talked us into doing this during the 1997 NFA in Winnipeg. Thanks (?)• Sarah Hill is the Administrative Assistant of the Finance Area at the Faculty of Management and

represented the NFA Conference on the phone, fax and mail. With her nimble mailing, emailingand faxing skills, it is likely that most people submitting papers to the conference didn't evenknow I was on sabbatical at the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study.

• Mary Kelly worked on the local arrangements before she left for Wilfrid Laurier and Alli Nathanpicked up from there.

• Jonathan Sick of Orbital Media Design did yeoman service organizing the website (including theregistration forms and javascript rollovers), designing graphics and fixing the website when hisDad went messing around and broke things. Since Jonathan is a minor, a representative of theUniversity advised us that we shouldn't pay him (something about protecting under-agelabourers from abusive employers!). Thus, he did the site in return for receipt of two softwarepackages, which is a significant discount from his normal website development fee.

• Many Helpful Conference Participants eased my workload by agreeing to discuss papers even ifthey weren't really closely related to their own research. Other participants helped me resolveschedule conflicts and a host of logistical problems by agreeing to seemingly arcane requests fromme.

• The Faculty of Management at the University of Calgary provided a float of $5000 to get usgoing. If the conference earns a surplus, they want their money back and we hope to be able todo that. They booked rooms for us and video equipment at minimal fees. They provided thelaser printers that we used to prepare signage, as well as infrastructure such as the accounting andbilling system.

• The University of Calgary provided a website and email account that we used for hosting theconference planning. This account has handled over 1400 distinct email messages and allowed usto cut mailing costs and communication costs to almost nil. We stressed their systemoccasionally by accidentally mailing out a large graphics file to hundreds of people (and getting itbounced back by countless mail servers) and by receiving a flood of email paper submissions inthe week before the deadline.

Ron Giammarino at UBC established a tradition of sending the conference financialstatements to participants as a measure of transparent disclosure. We will continue that tradition byposting the financial statements on the conference website http://www.ucalgary.ca/~nfa99. Thiswebsite will also announce information about next year's conference until the website account closessome time at the end of the Winter 2000 term.

We hope that you enjoy the NFA Conference and the opportunity to visit Calgary and thesurrounding community.

—cheers, Gordon Sick, Program Chair, on behalf of the Conference Committee

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Registration, Friday Sept 24, 5:00 pm -7:00 pmShell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

Reception, Friday Sept 24, 5:30 pm -7:00 pmShell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

Breakfast and Registration, Saturday Sept25, 7:30 am - 8:30 amShell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

11 Capital Budgeting, Saturday Sept 25,8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 465 (RGO)Chair: George Tannous

Valuing the Launch of a New PharmaceuticalProductAlberto Micalizzi, Paolo Pellizzari, AndreaGambaDiscussant: Priya Parthasarathy

Using Real Options Software Tools in thePetroleum IndustryMarc Paulhus, Miro Powojowski, DanCalistrate, Gordon SickDiscussant: George Tannous

R&D Option StrategiesHan Smit, Lenos TrigeorgisDiscussant: Shelley MacDougall

12 Measuring Risk I, Saturday Sept 25,8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 280 (Home Oil)Chair: George Blazenko

Comparison of The Credit Risk PortfolioModels: CreditMetrics and CreditRisk+Wei HeDiscussant: Gady Jacoby

Note on Asset Proportions, StochasticDominance and 50% RuleOctave Jokung, Ephraim ClarkDiscussant: Larry Bates

Applications of Entropy and Cross-EntropyMeasures in FinanceGanesh VaidyanathanDiscussant: George Blazenko

13 Securities Markets, Saturday Sept 25,8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 284 (CAPL)Chair: Melanie Cao

Towards a Theory of the Put-Call RatioMark CassanoDiscussant: Henri Fouda

On the Economic Value of Dividend Yields,Riskfree Rates, and Yields-to-Maturity inForecasting Returns: Evidence from AssetAllocationRobert R. Grauer, Nils HakanssonDiscussant: Kris Jacobs

On the Survival of Overconfident Traders in aCompetitive Securities MarketGuo Ying (Rosemary) Luo, David HirshleiferDiscussant: Melanie Cao

Refreshment Break, 10:00 - 10:15Shell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

21 Acquisitions and Divestitures,Saturday Sept 25, 10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 465 (RGO)Chair: Kai Li

Bidder Motivation: Predicting the SecondContestSandra Betton, Hong WongDiscussant: Greg MacKinnon

Corporate Spinoffs and Intra-shareholderInformation AsymmetryMark R. Huson, Gregory MacKinnonDiscussant: Kai Li

The Design of Financial Policies in CorporateSpinoffsVikas Mehrotra, Wayne Mikkelson, MeganPartchDiscussant: Jay Brown

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22 Effects of Taxation, Saturday Sept 25,10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 280 (Home Oil)Chair: Laurence Booth

Tax Reforms, Debt Shifting and Tax Revenues:Multinational Corporations in CanadaVijay Jog, Jianmin TangDiscussant: Laurence Booth

Changes in Capital Gains Tax Rates and EquityValues: Further Empirical EvidencePeter Klein, James MacadamDiscussant: Lawrence Gould

Feasibility and Attainability of Non-SegmentedEquilibria Under Differential Taxation:Evidence from the Canadian Government BondMarketAlexandra MacKay, Eliezer Z. Prisman,Yisong TianDiscussant: Jean-Guy Simonato

23 Capital Structure I, Saturday Sept 25,10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 284 (CAPL)Chair: Rob Heinkel

Capital Structure, Pricing, Predation andMarket ShareAron GottesmanDiscussant: Olubunmi Faleye

The Incentives Trade-off between Debt andEquity: A Dynamic PrecommitmentEquilibrium ApproachCarlton-James OsakweDiscussant: Rob Heinkel

ATM Competition: Understanding 'Ripoff'ATM SurchargesNadia Massoud, Dan BernhardtDiscussant: James McNulty

Luncheon, 11:45 - 1:30Shell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3Chair: Gordon Sick

Keynote Address by Phelim Boyle:"Mathematical Finance, ComputationalFinance: New Guilds on the Block?"

31 Asymmetric Information, SaturdaySept 25, 1:30 - 3:30Scurfield Hall 465 (RGO)Chair: Sandra Betton

Good Managers Work More and Pay LessDividends: The Screening Model of DividendPolicyN. BhattacharyyaDiscussant: Sandra Betton

Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection and VentureCapital Financial ContractingDouglas J. CummingDiscussant: Mike Robinson

Strategic Decision Making of the Firm underAsymmetric InformationGuo Ying (Rosemary) Luo, Ivan Brick,Michael FriermanDiscussant: Karen Sharp

Managerial Succession and Firm PerformanceMark R. Huson, Paul H. Malatesta, RobertParrinoDiscussant: Mark Latham

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32 Options, Saturday Sept 25, 1:30 -3:30Scurfield Hall 280 (Home Oil)Chair: Andrea Gamba

Vulnerable Options, Risky Corporate Bonds andCredit SpreadMelanie Cao, Jason WeiDiscussant: Ganesh Vaidyanathan

Pricing Discretely Monitored Barrier Options bya Markov ChainJean-Guy Simonato, Jin-Chuan Duan, EvanDudley, Geneviève GauthierDiscussant: Malgorzata Korolkiewicz

Shout Options: A Precursor to the Valuation ofSegregated FundsKenneth R. Vetzal, Heath Windcliff, PeterForsythDiscussant: Andrea Gamba

Valuation of Arithmetic Average CallsGeorge L. Ye, Edwin H. NeaveDiscussant: Jacob Sagi

33 Contract Design, Saturday Sept 25,1:30 - 3:30Scurfield Hall 284 (CAPL)Chair: Vijay Jog

Collective Action for Dispersed ShareownersMark LathamDiscussant: Vijay Jog

Debt, Agency and Management Contracts: TheExternal Advisor PuzzleDennis Capozza, Paul SeguinDiscussant: Gilles Bernier

Removing Barriers to Entry in Electricity:Transmission Loss Factor Contract forDifferences (CfD)Glenn RogersDiscussant: Lawrence Kryzankowski

Trade Credit and the Product DifferentiationHypothesisKirk Vandezande, George BlazenkoDiscussant: Long Chen

34 International Finance, Saturday Sept25, 1:30 - 3:30Scurfield Hall 210 (Mobil)Chair: Lorne Switzer

The Aftermarket Performance of PrivatizationOfferings in Developing CountriesNarjess Boubakri, Jean-Claude CossetDiscussant: Nadia Massoud

Market Segmentation, Barriers to Arbitrage andInternational Cross-Listings of SecuritiesDorothee FeilsDiscussant: Jian Ping Huang

Financial Intermediation in the TransitionalEconomies of Central and Eastern EuropeJames E. McNultyDiscussant: Aron Gottesman

The Linkages Among the Eastern EuropeanStock Markets and the Major Stock ExchangesAyse Yuce, Can Simga-MuganDiscussant: Lorne Switzer

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35 Bonds and Their Derivatives,Saturday Sept 25, 1:30 - 3:30Scurfield Hall 215 (AEC)Chair: Dan Calistrate

Time-Varying Risk Aversion, UnexpectedInflation, and the Dynamics of the TermStructureMichael W. Brandt, Kevin Q. WangDiscussant: Dan Calistrate

The Default- and Call-Adjusted Duration ofCorporate BondsGady Jacoby, Gordon RobertsDiscussant: Winfried Hallerbach

Estimating One-Factor Models of Short-TermInterest RatesDes McManus, David G. WattDiscussant: Yisong Tian

Refreshment Break, 3:30 - 3:45Shell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

41 Financial Institution Mergers,Saturday Sept 25, 3:45 - 5:15Scurfield Hall 465 (RGO)Chair: Ted Neave

Market Response to the Announcements of theMergers of Canadian Financial InstitutionsSebouh Aintablian, Gordon S. RobertsDiscussant: Edwin Neave

Investor Reaction to Large Bank MergerAnnouncements and Subsequent RegulatoryRejection in an Economy with a Small Numberof BanksAdam ChehabDiscussant: Alli Nathan

Mega-mergers in Banking and Insurance: theCanadian ExperienceAlli Nathan, Mary KellyDiscussant: Richard Deaves

42 Option Pricing Techniques, SaturdaySept 25, 3:45 - 5:15Scurfield Hall 280 (Home Oil)Chair: Ken Vetzal

A Monte-Carlo Method for Optimal PortfolioPoliciesMarcel Rindisbacher, Jérôme Detemple, RenéGarciaDiscussant: Jacob Sagi

Recombining Binomial Tree for Valuing RealOptions with Complex StructuresDan Calistrate, Gordon Sick, Marc PaulhusDiscussant: Marcel Rinsisbacher

Empirical Tests of an Option Price InversionApproachMichael L. McIntyreDiscussant: Ken Vetzal

43 Regulation and Deregulation,Saturday Sept 25, 3:45 - 5:15Scurfield Hall 284 (CAPL)Chair: Ron Giammarino

Electricity Competition and Fair Market Accessin CanadaAlexander BlackDiscussant: Ron Giammarino

An Event Study on the Impact of Tighter InsiderTrading RegulationMatthew Bogue, Marcel BélangerDiscussant: Jarrad Harford

A Positive Theory of Regulatory FinanceMoin A. YahyaDiscussant: Tom Cottrell

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44 Market Microstructure I, SaturdaySept 25, 3:45 - 5:15Scurfield Hall 210 (Mobil)Chair: Long Chen

Stock Splits, Liquidity and Limit OrderTrading: Evidence from the Paris BourseDavid Bourghelle, Pascal AlphonseDiscussant: Paul Seguin

Illiquidity and Expected Return of TreasurySecuritiesLong ChenDiscussant: David Bourghelle

Long-term Information, But Short-livedFinancial InstrumentsRyan Davies, Dan Bernhardt, John SpicerDiscussant: Pascal Alphonse

45 Empirical Asset Pricing, Saturday Sept25, 3:45 - 5:15Scurfield Hall 215 (AEC)Chair: Mark Cassano

Asset Market Data Do Not Imply High RiskAversion: Reassessing the Evidence on AssetPricing PuzzlesKris JacobsDiscussant: Bob Korkie

On the Explanatory Power of Asset PricingModels Across and Within PortfoliosRaymond KanDiscussant: Ranjini Sivakumar

Skewness Persistence: It Matters, Just Not HowWe ThoughtHarry Turtle, Bob Korkie, Ranjini SivakumarDiscussant: Mark Cassano

Reception, Saturday Sept 25, 5:30 pm -7:00 pmShell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

Breakfast, Sunday Sept 26, 7:30 am -8:30 amShell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

51 Relationships Between Markets II,Sunday Sept 26, 8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 465 (RGO)Chair: Rob Grauer

In Search of International Integration: AnIntraday Examination of North AmericanTrading of Canadian Dually Listed StocksVikas Mehrotra, Aditya KaulDiscussant: Rob Grauer

A Fractional Relationship between Treasury Billsand Eurollar Futures: A Long Memory AnalysisKeshab Shrestha, Robert L. WelchDiscussant: Raymond Kan

Inter-temporal Asset Pricing when Agents Havea Preference for FlexibilityJacob Sagi, Alan KrausDiscussant: Andreea Amariei

52 Measuring Risk II, Sunday Sept 26,8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 280 (Home Oil)Chair: Marc Paulhus

Extreme Events and Their Implication for Valueat Risk: Evidence from Mortgage-BackedSecuritiesAlfred Davis, Henri FoudaDiscussant: Mike Inglis

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility usingTrading Volume, ARCH, and OptionsGlen Donaldson, Mark KamstraDiscussant: Miro Powojowski

Disclosure and Analysis of Bank DerivativeExposure: A Comparative Analysis of InterestRate RiskCharles E. Mossman, Mosen Sefidgar, MarkWongDiscussant: Marc Paulhus

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53 Issues in Financial Markets, SundaySept 26, 8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 284 (CAPL)Chair: Mary Kelly

Exchange Rate Exposure of Canadian FirmsJian Ping Huang, Rolf Mirus, RanjiniSivakumarDiscussant: Van Son Lai

Screening, Bidding and the Loan MarketTightnessShouyong Shi, Melanie CaoDiscussant: Mary Kelly

54 Market Microstructure II, SundaySept 26, 8:30 - 10:00Scurfield Hall 210 (Mobil)Chair: Jason Lee

Trading Costs on a Limit Order Book Market:Evidence from the Paris BourseFany DeclerckDiscussant: Michael L. McIntyre

Do Concentrated Trading Equilibria Exist? TheMigration of Informed Traders Following IndexAdditionJarrad HarfordDiscussant: Jason Lee

55 Mutual Funds, Sunday Sept 26, 8:30 -10:00Scurfield Hall 257 (Esso)Chair: Mike Robinson

Performance of Canadian Mutual FundsRichard DeavesDiscussant: Mike Robinson

Incomplete Information and the Closed-EndFund DiscountYoungsoo KimDiscussant: Alexandra MacKay

The Variability of Management Expenses AcrossCanadian Mutual Funds: ExaminingAlternative ExplanationsNeil LongleyDiscussant: Carlton-James Osakwe

Refreshment Break, 10:00 - 10:15Shell Forum, Scurfield Hall Level 3

61 Capital Budgeting II, Sunday Sept 26,10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 465 (RGO)Chair: Han Smit

Upgrade Strategies in Microcomputer SoftwareTom CottrellDiscussant: Han Smit

Subject to Change: Real Options during theImplementation of Advanced ManufacturingTechnologyShelley MacDougall, Richard PikeDiscussant: Alberto Micalizzi

The Relationship Between the Cost of Funds,Default Risk,and Asian Collar Spreads: AContingent Claims ModelGeorge TannousDiscussant: Nalinaksha Bhattacharyya

62 Issuing Securities, Sunday Sept 26,10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 280 (Home Oil)Chair: Harry Turtle

Decomposing Portfolio Value-at-RiskWinfried G. HallerbachDiscussant: Wei He

Assessment of the Short-Run Intraday Behaviourof Canadian IPOs Using a Multi-MomentMarket ModelIan Rakita, Lawrence KryzanowskiDiscussant: Harry Turtle

Wealth Effects of Seasoned Equity Offerings: AComparative Study of Canadian and U.S. IssuesUsha MittooDiscussant: William McNally

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63 Capital Structure II, Sunday Sept 26,10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 284 (CAPL)Chair: Mark Huson

An Analysis of Private Loan Gurarantees: ARevisitVan Son LaiDiscussant: Mark Huson

Capital Structure Convergence and theDominant Country Effect: Evidence from theEuropean UnionKhalil M. Torabzadeh, Criss G. Woodruff,Dev PrasadDiscussant: Rosemary Luo

Private Equity Financing and the EquityFlotation Method Choice: Theory and EvidenceØyvind NorliDiscussant: Douglas J. Cumming

64 Market Microstructure III, SundaySept 26, 10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 210 (Mobil)Chair: Ranjini Sivakumar

Explanation of Ex-Dividend Price Behaviour onthe Paris BourseJean-François GajewskiDiscussant: Youngsoo Kim

Sign Predictability and the Attenuation ofHeteroskedasticityBob Korkie, Ranjini Sivakumar, Harry TurtleDiscussant: Ryan Davies

Trade Size and Information-Motivated Tradingin the Options and Stock MarketsJason Lee, Cheong H. YiDiscussant: Jean-François Gajewski

65 Announcement Effects, Sunday Sept26, 10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 257 (Esso)Chair: Kai Li

Open Market versus Tender Offer ShareRepurchases: A Conditional Event StudyKai Li, William McNallyDiscussant: Jess Chua

Contribution of Dividend Policy Stability to theMeasurement of Dividend Announcement andEx-dividend EffectsFrédéric RomonDiscussant: Charles Mossman

66 Relationships between Markets II,Sunday Sept 26, 10:15 - 11:45Scurfield Hall 202 (Texaco)Chair: Bob Korkie

The Implications of Cointegration for MeasuringWealth Changes in Hedged Positions in theS&P500 Index, Its Futures and SPDRIeuan G. Morgan, Marie-Claude BeaulieuDiscussant: Bob Korkie

Hot Markets vs. Market Integration: Evidencefor International Listings and Delistings on theTokyo Stock ExchangeLorne N. Switzer, John Doukas, DavidSheinbergDiscussant: Aditya Kaul

Efficiency in Index Options Markets andTrading in Stock BasketsYisong (Sam) Tian, Lucy F. AckertDiscussant: Keshab Shrestha

End of Conference

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Faculty Position in FinanceCarleton UniversitySchool of Business

Subject to budgetary approval, Carleton UniversityÕs School of Businessinvites applications for a full-time tenure-track position in Finance at therank of Assistant or Associate Professor. The successful candidate isexpected to teach undergraduate and graduate courses, supervise graduatestudents, conduct research, and participate actively in the on-goingdevelopment of our newly established Finance Concentration. The positionrequires a Ph.D. or equivalent degree and evidence of strong research andteaching, although Canadian or landed immigrant applicants who are closeto completion will be considered. The School of Business, part of the newlycreated Faculty of Public Affairs and Management (PAM), is committed toexcellence in teaching and research. The School offers a Bachelor ofCommerce with Honours degree, a Bachelor of International Business withHonours degree, a research-based Masters in Management Studies(M.M.S.), and a Ph.D. in Management. Salary is competitive andcommensurate with qualifications. Carleton University is committed toequality of employment for women, aboriginal peoples, visible minorities,and persons with disabilities. Persons from these groups are encouraged toapply. Please send curricula vitae and names of three academic referees bySeptember 30, 1999 to Dr. Vinod Kumar, Director, School of Business,Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Tel:613 520-2379; Fax: 613 520-2532; email: vinod_kumar@carleton.ca.

URL: http://www.business.carleton.ca

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The Faculty of Business Administration at Simon Fraser University invitesapplications for a tenure-track appointment in finance. Ph.D. in hand ornear completion is required. RANK: Assistant or Associate. Successful

candidate will have strong research and teaching abilities with an established researchprogram in finance and an interest in teaching at the undergraduate, graduate andexecutive levels. START DATE: September 2000 or at a mutually agreed upon time.

NOUS ¥ SOM M ES ¥ PRET

S

SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY

www.sfu.ca www.bus.sfu.ca

In accordance with Canadian Immigrationrequirements, this announcement isdirected, in the first instance, to CanadianCitizens and Permanent Residents. SimonFraser University is committed to theprinciple of equity in employment andoffers equal employment opportunities toqualified applicants. Position is subject tobudgetary approval.

Send curriculum vita and the names ofthree referees to: Ms. Diane LesackAsst. to Appointments Committee ChairFaculty of Business AdministrationSimon Fraser University8888 University DriveBurnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6Canada • E-MAIL: lesack@sfu.ca

• FAX: 604-291-5833

Application deadline: December 17, 1999

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FINANCE POSITION

JOB DESCRIPTION/QUALIFICATIONS:The University of Calgary, Faculty of Management, is seeking qualified candidates with a Ph.D., ornearly completed doctorate, to fill a position in finance. The successful candidate will be expected toteach at undergraduate, graduate and Ph.D. levels. Subject to budget approval, a tenure-trackposition is available, commencing in Fall 2000.

ABOUT THE DEPARTMENT:The Faculty of Management, an AACSB accredited institution, offers programs at theundergraduate, MBA and Ph.D. levels. It is housed in Scurfield Hall, a modern four story atriumbuilding with state-of-the-art facilities. We place equal emphasis on research and teaching with noconstraints on the research focus of a candidate. We do expect the successful candidate to havebroad teaching interests.

ABOUT THE UNIVERSITY:The University of Calgary, located on a modern campus in an attractive, residential area, is minutesfrom downtown. Calgary is a city of 800,000 situated in the foothills of the Canadian RockyMountains. As Canada's oil capital, and third-largest head-office city, Calgary offers excellentrecreational opportunities including theatre, museums, hiking and world class skiing. It is anexcellent location for raising a family.

APPLICATION PROCEDURE:Interested individuals are asked to submit their C.V. to:Dr. Gordon SickChair, Finance Selection CommitteeThe University of CalgaryThe Faculty of Management2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CanadaFax: (403) 284-7903Email: sick@mgmt.ucalgary.cahttp://www.ucalgary.ca/MG

In accordance with Canadian Immigration requirements, priority will be given to Canadian citizensand permanent residents of Canada. The University of Calgary is committed to EmploymentEquity.

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