1icelandic system dynamics center. industrial engineering ... · a) bau 1930-2230 years h e l i u...
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1Icelandic System Dynamics Center. Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Hjarðarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland2Norwegian Inland University of Applied Sciences, Hamar
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Population
Wellbeing
land
areause
land
available
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economyEducation
land
areause
land
available
R2
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economy
poverty
Education
land
areause
land
available
R3
R2
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economy
recycling
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
material
demand
extraction
land
areause
land
available
R4
R3
R2
R5
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economy
recycling
GDP
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
material
demand
material
price
extraction
land
areause
land
available
R7
R4
R3
R2
R5
R1
R6
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Population
Wellbeing
Consumption
economy
recycling
GDP
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
material
demand
material
price
extraction
land
areause
land
available
R7
R4
R3
R2
R5
R1
R6
R8
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Population
Wellbeing
Consumption
economy
recycling
GDP
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
Health
energyuse
energy
production
available
energy
material
demand
material
price
extraction
URR
land
areause
climate
change
land
available
pollution
R7
R4
B3
R3
R2
R5
R1
B8
B7
B1
B5
B2
B4
B6
R6
B9
R8
B9
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Supply Market delivery
modifieddemand
Demand
Profit
Cost Price
GDP
B1
B2
R2
R1
B3
B4
a)BAU1930-2230
Years
Helium,tonperyear
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 2110 2140 2170 2200 2230
1 23
4
5 6
1
2
3
4
56
12
3
4
56
12
3 4
56
BAUDemand1 BAUModified2 BAUProduction3
BAUSupply4 BAURecycling5 BAUReservesales6
b)BAU1930-2015comparedtodata
Years
Helium,tonperyear
0
7.500
15.000
22.500
30.000
37.500
45.000
52.500
60.000
1930 1939 1947 1956 1964 1973 1981 1990 1998 2007 20151 2 3 4 5 6 7
12 3 4
5 6
7
1 2
3
4
5 6
7
1 2
3
4
56
7
BAUDemand1 BAUModified2 BAUProduction3
BAUSupply4 BAURecycling5 BAUReservesales6
Observedproduction7
Nisystemicsupply
Years
Milliontonperyear
0
3
6
9
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Niextraction
Years
Milliontonperyear
0
1,4
2,8
4,2
5,6
7
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 22501 2 3 4 5 1
2
3
4
5
1
2 3
4
5 1
2
3 4 5
50%Nidemand1 75%Nidemand2
BaseRun3 125%Nidemand4
150%Nidemand5
Nirecyclingdegree
Years
Nisystemicrecyclingdegree
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 22501 2
3 4 5
12
3
4
5
1
23
4
5
1 23
4
5
50%Nidemand1 75%Nidemand2
BaseRun3 125%Nidemand4
150%Nidemand5
Nickelmarketprice
Years
Nickel,$perton
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Nimarketsupply
Years
Milliontonperyear
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Niallresources
Years
Millionton
0
140
280
420
560
700
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Grasp the underlying structure of the elements included in the model.
Reconstructs history (1850-2015) for the resources included in the model reasonably well.
The relationship between extraction, supply, recycling and the time of population maximum plays a vital role in how the supply situation will develop and to evaluate risk for scarcity.