1q20 ceb ir presn vmay4 - read-only · 2020-05-07 · 'rphvwlf yv ,qwo 0dunhwv ï x ðd v p u...
TRANSCRIPT
Cebu Air, Inc.1st Quarter
Results of Operations
May 5, 2019
Pax Volume4.41M, -17%Pax Volume4.41M, -17%
Pax YieldP2,580, -13%
Pax YieldP2,580, -13%
ASK5.77B, -18%
ASK5.77B, -18%
Php/$P50.83, -3%
Php/$P50.83, -3%
Jet/bbl$59.24, -23%
Jet/bbl$59.24, -23%
Fleet76 vs 70 (PY)
Fleet76 vs 70 (PY)
SLF81%, -2.9 ppts
SLF81%, -2.9 ppts
P15.9B
-25%
Revenue(P1.18B)
-135%
Net Income(P693M)
-118%
EBIT
1Q2020 Snapshot
RPK4.67B, -21%
RPK4.67B, -21%
Cancelled all flights from March 15 – May 15 due to the Enhanced Community Quarantine
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Domestic vs. Intl Markets
3.4M passengers, -10% YOY
4.1M seats, -6.4% YOY, 82% SLF
Network. Pre ECQ:
• 33 destinations• 78 routes• >2,400 weekly flights
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All domestic flights cancelled starting March 15, 2020
1.0M passengers, -32% YOY
1.3M seats, -31% YOY, 80% SLF
NetworkPre ECQ:
• 27 destinations• 25 routes• >300 weekly flights
1,386 int’l flights cancelled pre-ECQ* China:402, HK:618 ,Taipei:131, Macau:235
*source: Published MOPS and BAP rates
Income Statement Highlights
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1Q20 1Q19 % YOYTotal Revenue (Php M) 15,914 21,177 -25%
Passenger 11,388 15,679 -27%Ancillary 3,513 4,056 -13%Cargo 1,013 1,442 -30%
Cost/ASK (CASK) 2.88 2.45 17%CASK ex-fuel 2.04 1.62 26%Total Opex (Php M) 16,607 17,332 -4%Flying operations 6,180 7,173 -14%
*Fuel 4,857 5,881 -17%Depreciation & Amort. 4,139 3,609 15%Maintenance 2,300 2,020 14%Others 3,987 4,530 -12%Income (PHP M)
EBITDAR 4,493 8,044 -44%EBIT - 693 3,846 -118%Pre-tax Core Income -1,241 3,268 -138%Net Income -1,182 3,356 -135%
Ave fare: P2,580 -13% yoyAnc/pax: P796, +4% yoyCargo/kg: P2.76, -12% yoy
Rev/ASK (RASK): P2.76, -8% yoy
1Q20 Margins:EBITDAR: 28% EBIT: -4%PT Core Income: -8%Net Income: -7%
Balance Sheet Highlights
We now have 76 AC:
51 under PPE
25 under ROU
1 A320Neo delivered 1Q2020 under ROU
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In Millions of PHP March 31Dec. 31,
20192020 vs end
2019Cash and cash equiv. 17,473 18,195 -723Other current assets 6,554 7,775 -1,221Property & equipment 103,809 106,555 -2,746Right of Use Asset 17,562 17,811 -249Others 9,597 7,396 2,201TOTAL ASSETS 154,994 157,733 -2,738Short term debt 4,400 - 4,400 Current portion of long-term Debt 6,937 6,885 52 Noncurrent portion of long-term Debt 48,550 50,259 -1,709Current Lease 5,958 5,748 210Noncurrent Lease 11,472 11,761 -289Other liabilities 35,736 38,178 -2,442TOTAL LIABILITIES 113,053 112,832 222EQUITY 41,941 44,901 -2,960Cash to Sales Ratio 1.10 0.21 Current Ratio 0.53 0.61 Net debt to Equity 1.43 1.26
With net debt to equity at 1.43x, CEB’s biggest strength is its balance sheet
With net debt to equity at 1.43x, CEB’s biggest strength is its balance sheet
Cash Flow Highlights
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Working capital decrease with lower unearned revenue from forward bookings
in Millions of PHP 1Q2020CASHFLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIESIncome after noncash adjustments 4,179Net changes in working capital - 3,493 Interest and taxes paid – net - 508 Net cash provided by operating activities 179CASHFLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIESAcquisition of PPE - 955 Other noncurrent asset - 715 Net cash used in investing activities - 1,670 CASHFLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIESProceeds from short-term debt 4,400 Repayment of debt - 1,886 Payment of lease liability - 1,664 Treasury Stocks - 45 Net cash provided by financing activities 805Net foreign exchange difference - 35 NET DECREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS - 723 CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS, beginning 18,195CASH AND EQUIVALENTS, END 17,473
Short-term debt obtained in anticipation of refund demand and continued low booking curve
Fuel: with layered hedges to match bookings:
Jet fuel now at $18.37bbl*, down vs. $27.27/bbl end 1st Qtr
Ongoing hedge ratios at 50% for balance 2020 and 2% for 2021
CEB layers hedges using swaps & collars, with Jet and Brent as underlying
Forex: Hedges reduce exposure:
USD at Php 50.40* vs. Php 50.68 end 1st Qtr
CEB uses spot purchases and non-deliverable forwards
Rates: Now at a downtrend:
3Mo Libor at 0.55613%*, down 204 bps vs. end 1st Qtr
3Mo BVAL at 2.975%*, down 282 bps vs. end 1st Qtr
Php loans are 100% floating rate , while USD loans & leases are at 44% floating rate
*date of ref : Apr 30, 2020; bps = basis points
Macroeconomic and Commercial OutlookRisk management: Fuel, Forex & Interest
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Outlook
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3,333,193Global Cases*
8,772PH Cases*
26,411Cancelled
flights (Mar 15-May 15)
Extended ECQ
(March 15 – May 15)
*as of May 1,2020Source: DOH Philippines
COVID-19 Update
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5M Forward booking as of April 19*: 14% of seats sold for the next 5 mos, a
50% drop from 28% same period LY
14%
28%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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2020 2019
Mill
ions
5-Month Forward BookingsCapacity Bookings Capacity % Sold % Sold
Forward bookings for May 2020-Sep2020
11%
25%
-2%
-27%
-57%
Jan Feb March April May
from Mar 15 to Apr 19
as of Mar 8
%YOY Change in Monthly Forward Bookings*
*These still include May 1-15 flights, now to be cancelled in line with ECQ extension
COVID-19 Update
Management Initiatives
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All-Cargo flights fly humanitarian aid
Over 34 Tons of Humanitarian Aid flown on CEB for free by partner organizations in government and non-government sectors since March 2020
Top humanitarian cargo: PPEs Medicines Medical Equipment
Year to date, total humanitarian cargo flown by CEB at 79 tons, for Php4.4M in value
Management Initiatives: BAYANIJUAN
Helping fly stranded passengers home
From March 16-May 2, over 5,100 passengers flown on 48 sweeper/repatriation flights mounted by CEB
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Management Initiatives: BAYANIJUAN
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• Pre-cautionary heath and safety measures
• Frequent updates on Covid-19 situation, and health advisories
• Work from Home; reduced workdays, and freeze-hire
• Management pay cuts fund sustainability allowance
Management Initiatives: PEOPLE
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Management Initiatives: PASSENGERS
• Intensified aircraft disinfection protocols and deep interior cleaning
• Ensure BOQ-certified personnel for food handling and transport
• AC equipped with HEPA filters for air filtrations with 99.99% efficiency
• Flexible self-service options when ready to fly:
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Focus on reducing costs and preserving cash liquidity and flexibility:• Discussions with Suppliers, banks, lessors• Discussions with government for support• 2020 CAPEX review and prioritization plans• Review of overall fleet plan and delivery schedule:
Management Initiatives: COSTS & CASH
AC TypeNo. of AC Deliveries
DeliverySchedule
ATR 72-600 3 2021-2022
A321NEO 27 2020-2023
A320NEO 5 2020-2025
A330NEO 16 2021-2025
A321XLR 10 2025-2026
Total Deliveries 61 Replacing 43 AC
CEB’s Long Term Fleet Plan As of End March 2020:
This will bring us to base fleet of 88 aircraft by end 2024, for 5-year seat CAGR of 8-9%
cebupacificair.com