1.travel risk management.how effective are travel. threat levels. tony ridley

8/7/2019 1.Travel Risk Management.How Effective are Travel. Threat Levels. Tony Ridley

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Travel Risk Management: How accurate are travel risk ratings and levels?

Beware The Fine Print

Introduction

If like most, you base your overall assessment of a country or city based on some-kind ofthreat rating then you need to read this article before blindly basing all your businessdecisions upon such tools.

This article will address the development and reporting of security or travel safety threatsand how they are communicated. Specically, the collection of data, affected audiencedemographics, aggregated indicators, qualiers and the real threats revealed.

By the end of this article you will have immediate knowledge that can be applied to yourcurrent risk analysis methods, tools and services to ensure a more accurate and relevantapproach for your business needs.! ! ! ! ! !

Data

True analysis is based upon and supported by demonstrable facts. While a derivedassessment may be a combination of multiple factors, the baseline factors remainconstant.

These facts must be relevant tothe business and the affectedassets and not a standardized

collection of threat topicsrepresenting the mean averageof the world ʼs problems.

This data must also be reportedin support of the nal threat/riskanalysis. Rarely do end usersever see or are offered thesefacts but they provide greaterinsight into the effectiveness ofthe nal number or score andoften highlight weaknesses withthe assessment process. Possibly the reason they are rarely released.

Data such as accidents per capita, delays per route, illnesses per demographics, victims oflocalized crime, total loss per event and time loss per disruption are all key requirements toany travel threat spectrum.

The data alone is insufcient unless related directly to the audience in which the analysisis created for or those directly affected. Local inhabitants and their risk categories areseldom shared by that of travellers, expats and other visitors to a location.

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Audience

If your intention or requirement is to present an accurate index of threats or risks fortravellers, then your data must show an index or scale as to how/how much they are

affected.

While these groups may have further diversify, it must exclusively show the threat andimpact as it relates to that demographic and that demographic alone, in all sectors.

High cholesterol may be a national issue but will it have any great affect on travellers tothat location? Hotel incidents may not make local newspapers but have a signicantimpact upon travellers and visitors to the area. Terrorism kills thousands of people everyyear but only a handful of travellers are ever affected, often indirectly. The Mumbai attackwas far less successful than many other terrorist attacks in the country but because somany foreigners were affected, it had a far greater audience and “news worthiness” to theevent.

Natural disasters have a much greater impact on local residents but the loss or disruptionto airports, roads, accommodation and public utilities affects everyone, with the potentialfor greater threat to visitors and travellers.

Final risk levels are only useful as a nal comparison between multiple locations. Risklevels can only be really effective if displayed in conjunction with the key element/factorsthat created the nal assessment/index.

Aggregated Indicators

Indicators will always need to be collated orcompared, or the task and reporting wouldbecome too onerous and lengthy with the endresult that no one would bother to read them.

Final aggregated indicators are tolerable inmeasured doses to mass audiences that havelittle decision making power. However,businesses and business leaders need morethan just a nal “score”.

The indicators must be based on fact (even ifused in conjunction with “experience basedevaluations”) and specic to the primary audience. Anything less is next to useless. If youhave system or a service that can ʼt or won ʼt display/disclose such indicators, you need toreconsider the contribution and service immediately.


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Real threats

Most “travel threat ratings” fail to demonstrate greatest areas of risk and only display thenal tally.

The most effective and useful systems mirror mainstream business assessments with

measurements/results focused on plausible outage times or percentages.

Most threats result in loss of productivity, delays, disruptions or other efcienciessurrounding travel. Because analysis rarely has the capacity to understand or measurethis niche, coupled with the fact that few companies are really aware of the cost of suchevents on a regular basis, much of the value associated with travel risk ratings is lost.

Events and incidents that exclusively affect travellers, expats and visitors such as motorvehicle accidents, illness, sickness, bad water, petty crimes, loss, damage and life safetyand security issues constitute a far greater threat to business, even if their ratings don ʼtindicate it.

The frequency of updates and the replaceable methodologies employed create a threat intheir own right. Traveller threats may be cyclic, annual, persistent or isolated in durationbut the systems and processes in which they are measured or reviewed are often lengthyand bureaucratic which may only be updated periodically.

Conclusion

Any type of rating or threat analysis is immensely helpful but any “black box” calculation

should be questioned. The data that went into the nal analysis and rating can be just asimportant, if not more so, than just the nal index, percentage or level.

Now that you understand the differences and weaknesses in many systems, in particularissues around data, audience, indicators and threats you can immediately review orassess your current methods.

Look at the information you have collected or the services you are provided and questionwhether the results are really relevant to travellers, are they updated very frequently, arethe pertinent to your business or are they even pertinent to your location of travel?

Removing the veil associated with much of the analysis is the only way to improve the nalresults and add greater value to your company with an effective, targeted travel riskmanagement strategy supported by effective and reliable tools.

Tony Ridley

Consultant, Speaker, Author & Advisor


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1.travel risk management.how effective are travel. threat levels. tony ridley

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