2 daily technical morning reportslkp.accordhostings.com › admin › research... · 2015-03-09 ·...

Open High Low Close % Cng

Gold 26460 26484 25982 26012 -1.78Silver 36460 36460 35911 35972 -1.57

Aluminium 112.35 112.95 111.6 112.0 -0.44Copper 368.5 369.2 365.4 366.0 -0.88Lead 112.75 114.75 112.6 114.6 1.28Nickel 887.9 905.9 882.8 904.2 2.11Zinc 125.75 127.1 125.5 126.7 0.56

Crude 3209 3209 3121 3138 -2.30Nat. Gas 176.2 180.9 175.5 178.7 0.73

USDINR 62.60 62.62 62.44 62.48 -0.11EURINR 69.46 69.46 68.96 69.10 -0.75GBPINR 95.60 95.65 95.19 95.30 -0.66JPYINR 52.30 52.30 51.95 51.98 -0.57

12:30pm EUR 20.4B 21.8B

3:00pm EUR 15.3 12.4

All Day EUR 0 0

7:30pm USD 0 4.9

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 00 0 0 0

0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0

$ Index Euro Pound Yen DJ Nasdaq Hang Seng Gold$ Silver$ Crude $97.77 1.0838 1.5054 121.09 2071.26 4927.37 23988 1169.19 15.76 49.531.51 -0.06 0.13 0.24 -1.42 -1.11 -0.73 -0.03 -0.96 -2.44

Currency

Rupee ended with gains as dealers avoided taking longdollar positions ahead of the extended weekend.

Base Metal

Base metals prices ended with mixed node where copper andaluminium seen under pressure while other metals gains, howeverpressure seen as the dollar rallied after a strong U.S. jobs report,with investors also worried about lacklustre demand in China. TheU.S. jobless rate fell to a more than 6-1/2-year low, which couldencourage the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates inJune.

Energy

Crudeoil dropped as a resurgent dollar and fear of a U.S. ratehike diverted attention from the shrinking number of rigsdrilling for oil in US.

COMMODITY WORLD

Monday, March 9, 2015

Round upPrecious Metals

Gold dropped after stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farmpayrolls fueled expectations the Federal Reserve will raise ratessooner rather than later.

1Email: [email protected]

Commodity Research, Alpha CommoditiesPage No

SELL ZINC MAR @ 126.60 SL ABV 127.80 TGT 126.00-125.10-124.30. MCX (STBT)BUY NICKEL MAR @ 890 SL 875 TGT 908-920. MCXSELL ALUMINIUM MAR @ 113 SL 114.50 TGT 111.20-110. MCX

DAY TIME ZONE EXP PREV

Trading Calls for the DaySELL GOLD APR @ 26200 SL 26450 TGT 25950-25800. MCXSELL SILVER MAY @ 36300 SL 36650 TGT 35900-35650. MCXBUY CRUDE OIL MAR @ 3100 SL 3060 TGT 3140-3198. MCXBUY NAT GAS MAR @ 175 SL 172 TGT 179.10-182.50-184. MCXSELL COPPER APR @ 368.20-370 SL 373.80 TGT 365.20-362.10-359. MCX (STBT)

Global Market

0

0

0

0

0

ECONOMICAL DATAGerman Trade Balance

Sentix Investor Confidence

Eurogroup Meetings

Labor Market Conditions Index m/m

0

0

0

0

Mon

Open 26460High 26484Low 25982Close 26012% Cng -1.78OI 10007Volume 13349Resist 3 26838Resist 2 26661Resist 1 26336Support 1 25834Support 2 25657Support 3 25332


MC

X S

ilver

MCX Silver05 MAY 2015


COMMODITY WORLDM

CX

Gol

d

MCX Gold03 APR 2015

Silver settled down -1.57% at 35972 after better than expected data from the monthly U.S. jobs report and a stronger dollar deepened concerns thatthe Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by June. Investors unloaded the precious metal in late-January after the Fed released a statement thatthe economy had been expanding at a solid pace and that it would remain patient in deciding when to increase its benchmark rate. At Yellen's semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill, she indicated that the Fed could consider an interest rate hike on a "meeting by meeting" basisif economic conditions improved and inflation moved toward its target rate of 2%. The Fed could alter its monetary policy stance when the FederalOpen Market Committee meets next on Mar. 17-18. The U.S. added 295,000 jobs in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, morethan 55,000 above forecasts for the month and January's figure of 239,000. Employment growth, meanwhile, has averaged 288,000 over the lastthree months, as the current unemployment rate fell from 5.7 to 5.5%. Data concerning wage growth was less promising, as weekly hourly wagesinched up three cents from January and 2% from this point last year. The Fed would like to see improved figures in terms of wage growth if it decidesto raise interest rates, Yellen added at last month's testimony. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interestby 15.57% to settled at 12368 while prices down -573 rupee, now Silver is getting support at 35768 and below same could see a test of 35565 level,And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36317, a move above could see prices testing 36663.

Gold settled down -1.78% at 26012 after stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls fueled expectations the Federal Reserve will raise ratessooner rather than later, and the dollar jumped to an 11-1/2 year high. U.S. employers stepped up hiring in February and the unemployment rate fellto nearly a seven-year low, putting further pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in June. The U.S. added 295,000 jobs in February, according tothe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 55,000 above forecasts for the month and January's figure of 239,000. Employment growth,meanwhile, has averaged 288,000 over the last three months, as the current unemployment rate fell from 5.7 to 5.5%.Data concerning wage growthwas less promising, as weekly hourly wages inched up three cents from January and 2% from this point last year. The Fed would like to see improvedfigures in terms of wage growth if it decides to raise interest rates, Yellen added at last month's testimony. An increase in U.S. interest rates wouldfurther boost the value of the dollar, in turn hurting demand for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while a rise in yields on U.S. bonds is negative for the metal, whose holders earnno interest. On the physical market, prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange suggested physical demand for gold in China, the second biggest bullionconsumer, remained at healthy levels. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.75% to settled at10007, now Gold is getting support at 25834 and below same could see a test of 25657 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26336, amove above could see prices testing 26661.



Open 176.2High 180.9Low 175.5Close 178.7% Cng 0.73OI 6968Volume 35079Resist 3 187Resist 2 184Resist 1 181Support 1 176Support 2 173Support 3 171

MC

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atu

ral G

as

MCX Natural Gas26 MAR 2015


COMMODITY WORLDM

CX

Cru

de

Oil

MCX Crude Oil19 MAR 2015

Naturalgas settled up 0.73% at 178.7 as prices seen supported as data showed that U.S. natural gas supplies fell more than expected last week. TheU.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended February 27 fell by 228 billioncubic feet, compared to expectations for a decline of 222 billion. The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 115 billion cubic feet, whilesupplies fell by 189 billion the same time last year. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.710 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 492 billion cubic feethigher than last year at this time and 143 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1.853 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. According toweather forecasting models, the Eastern half of the U.S. was expected to see heavy snow and freezing temperatures through March 7, in what wasexpected to be the last major system of the winter. Bullish speculators are betting that colder weather will increase demand for the heating fuel.Approximately 49% of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department. According to NatGasWeather.com, naturalgas demand in the US will be high compared to normal for one last day today before dropping to moderate through March 12th, with a neutralweather trend for the following seven days. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.38% tosettled at 6968 while prices up 1.3 rupee, now Naturalgas is getting support at 175.9 and below same could see a test of 173 level, And resistance isnow likely to be seen at 181.3, a move above could see prices testing 183.8.

Crudeoil settled down -2.3% at 3138 as a resurgent dollar and fear of a U.S. rate hike diverted attention from the shrinking number of rigs drilling foroil in the United States. Worries about the security of Libyan and Iraqi crude supplies, which had put a floor beneath the market in early trade, alsotook a backseat. Many U.S. Federal Reserve officials consider that to be full employment, and the central bank could decide on an interest rate hike inJune. The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell by 64 this week to 922, the smallest number in operation since April 2011, oilservices firm Baker Hughes said in a weekly survey. It was a sign U.S. shale oil producers, which had flooded the market with crude supplies, werewinding down output. Last week, the rig count fell by 33, the smallest decline since the year began. Elsewhere, tensions in the Middle East remainedhigh. In Northeast Iraq, fighting escalated after militants from the Islamic State set fire to a number of oilfields. In Libya, nearly a dozen oilfields wereclosed this week amid security concerns. Concerns over Middle East oil supply widened Brent's premium to WTI by nearly a dollar to close to $10. Anysign of a lasting agreement between Tehran and six world powers could result in a flood of Iranian crude returning to the market. Technically marketis under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.98% to settled at 29056 while prices down -74 rupee, now Crudeoil isgetting support at 3103 and below same could see a test of 3068 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3191, a move above could seeprices testing 3244.


Open 368.5High 369.2Low 365.4Close 366% Cng -0.88OI 12895Volume 17688Resist 3 372Resist 2 371Resist 1 368Support 1 365Support 2 363Support 3 361

Open 887.9High 905.9Low 882.8Close 904.2% Cng 2.11OI 7541Volume 21148Resist 3 935.5Resist 2 920.7Resist 1 912.4Support 1 889.3Support 2 874.5Support 3 866.2

MC

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icke

l

MCX Nickel31 MAR 2015


COMMODITY WORLDM

CX

Cop

per

MCX Copper30 APR 2015

Nickel settled up 2.11% at 904.2 on expectations of a shortage of nickel ore towards the end of the year. China's stocks of nickel ore have dwindledfollowing an export ban by Indonesia at the start of last year. LME stocks have surged by 30 percent in the past six months alone, hitting a string ofrecord highs, to around 430,000 tonnes. Bonded nickel premiums jumped by $20 after a city in eastern China closed several factories, including manynickel pig iron producers, as the government steps up enforcement of a new environmental law. Germany’s January factory orders were -3.9%,better than the -4.2% in December, but falling far short of the -1% expected. European Central Bank announced it will purchase EUR 60 billion ofbonds each month since March, pulling down the euro to an 11.5-year low. Meanwhile, the number of US initial jobless claims last week reached320,000, higher than the 295,000 expected, and hitting a new high since May 2014. In addition, US January factory orders also fell short of marketexpectations, and down for the sixth straight month. US initial jobless claims rose to a refreshed high of 320,000 last week, well above 295,000expected and the highest since May 2014. US factory orders declined 0.2% MoM in January, down for a sixth straight month and missing a 0.2% riseexpected. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.76% to settled at 7541 while prices up 18.7rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 889.3 and below same could see a test of 874.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 912.4, amove above could see prices testing 920.7.

Copper settled down -0.88% at 366 as the dollar rallied after a strong U.S. jobs report, with investors also worried about lacklustre demand in China.The U.S. jobless rate fell to a more than 6-1/2-year low, which could encourage the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates in June. InChina, the world's top metals consumer, equities fell as investors digested comments by top officials that highlighted the growth and debt challengesthe country faces this year. Daily LME data showed copper inventories rose by 4,675 tonnes to 323,050 tonnes, their highest level since January 2014and a surge of 83 percent so far this year. A fresh supply threat emerged last week, with a possible halt to Newmont Mining Corp's Indonesiancopper concentrate exports. Worries about a forecast global surplus and lukewarm Chinese physical demand helped drive copper prices down to thelowest levels in 5-1/2 years in January. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of November lastyear in its recently released February 2015 Copper Bulletin. According to preliminary ICSG data, the refined copper market balance for Nov ’14showed an apparent production deficit of nearly 40,000 metric tonnes. World refined production increased by nearly 8% during the first elevenmonths of 2014. Primary production was up 9%, whereas the secondary production increased by 3%. The global refined copper production during themonth of November showed a surplus of 61,000 t. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.88%to settled at 12895 while prices down -3.25 rupee, now Copper is getting support at 364.6 and below same could see a test of 363.1 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 368.4, a move above could see prices testing 370.7.


Open 125.75High 127.10Low 125.50Close 126.70% Cng 0.56OI 2994Volume 3873Resist 3 128.9Resist 2 128.0Resist 1 127.3Support 1 125.7Support 2 124.8Support 3 124.1

Open 112.35High 112.95Low 111.60Close 111.95% Cng -0.44OI 3019Volume 3651Resist 3 114.1Resist 2 113.5Resist 1 112.8Support 1 111.5Support 2 110.9Support 3 110.2


MC

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iniu

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MCX Aluminium31 MAR 2015


COMMODITY WORLDM

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Zin

c

MCX Zinc31 MAR 2015

Aluminium settled down -0.44% at 111.95 after China lowered its annual growth target and laid out its latest package of reforms. Pressure also seenunder pressure after Deutsche joined other banks in downgrading the metal, cutting its price forecast for this year by 7 percent to $1,916. Investorsseemed to shrug off potentially bullish news that major producer Alcoa said it was reviewing 500,000 tonnes or 14 percent of its smelting capacity. Awarning by Alcoa that it may reduce smelting capacity is the first concrete sign that lower delivery premiums for aluminum are threatening producersamid low futures prices, traders and industry sources said. The vertically integrated aluminum company announced it would review 14 percent of itssmelting capacity, or 500,000 tonnes, for closure, curtailment or sale, as it shifts its focus from upstream production to fabrication of value-addedproducts aimed mainly at fast-growing demand from the automotive industry. In Japan, a major aluminium buyer has agreed to pay a producer apremium of $380 per tonne for metal shipped in the April-June period. China's exports of aluminium products grew about 19 percent last year, atrend expected to continue in 2015. Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports climbed for a tenth month to hit a record high at the end ofJanuary, as robust imports met tepid domestic demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by5.93% to settled at 3019 while prices down -0.5 rupee, now Aluminium is getting support at 111.5 and below same could see a test of 110.9 level,And resistance is now likely to be seen at 112.8, a move above could see prices testing 113.5.

Zinc settled up 0.56% at 126.7 as prices seen supported as record zinc shortage seen widening as producers close mines. Record shortage of zinc willwiden through 2017 as mines in Australia to Ireland close and little supply is added. The deficit will almost double to 584,000 metric tons this year,widening to as much as 2 million tons in 2017. About 215,000 tons of new projects have been canceled since October, according to the report. Zincoutput lagged consumption by 296,000 tons in 2014, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. China’s Government Working Reportfor 2015 gave little effect to the market, leaving LME zinc prices consolidating. European Central Bank President Mario Dragi said the bank willpurchase EUR 60 billion in bonds each month since March, allowing the euro to plummet to an 11.5-year low. The U.S. added 295,000 jobs inFebruary, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 55,000 above forecasts for the month and January's figure of 239,000.Employment growth, meanwhile, has averaged 288,000 over the last three months, as the current unemployment rate fell from 5.7 to 5.5%. Dataconcerning wage growth was less promising, as weekly hourly wages inched up three cents from January and 2% from this point last year. The Fedwould like to see improved figures in terms of wage growth if it decides to raise interest rates, Yellen added at last month's testimony. Technicallymarket is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.76% to settled at 2994, now Zinc is getting support at 125.7 andbelow same could see a test of 124.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 127.3, a move above could see prices testing 128.

Ratio

72.31

8.29

71.07

11.46

98.28

17.56

0.90

Change Stock

4675 323050

510 431952

-4725 547075

-6025 3911775

75 213950

Commodity Spread

MCX GOLD APR-JUN 153.00 Gold Silver ratio

MCX SILVER MAY-JUL 577.00 Gold Crude ratio

COMMODITY WORLD

Spread View Ratio TradingCommodity

MCX ZINC MAR-APR 0.90 Silver Copper ratio

MCX NICKEL MAR-APR 3.00 Crude Natural Gas ratio

MCX CRUDEOIL MAR-APR 140.00 Gold Copper ratio

MCX NATURALGAS MAR-APR 3.00 Silver Crude ratio

MCX CARDAMOM APR-MAY -20.20 LME Stock (Tons) NCDEX DHANIYA APR-MAY 86.00 Commodity

MCX LEAD MAR-APR 0.80 Lead Zinc ratio

MCX ALUMINIUM MAR-APR 0.75

NCDEX CHILLI APR-JUN 446.00 ZincMCX CPO MAR-APR 4.30 Aluminium

NCDEX JEERAUNJHA APR-MAY 315.00 CopperNCDEX TMCFGRNZM APR-MAY 102.00 Nickel

NCDEX CHARJDDEL APR-MAY 8.00

News you can Use

The U.S. economic recovery continued early in 2015 despite a stronger dollar, plunging crude oil prices and an unusually cold winter weather,according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. The Beige Book, published by Fed ahead of policy meetings, surveys businesses on the economicconditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts. Parts of the country were negatively impacted by diminished demand for exports. U.S. goodshave become more expensive to foreign buyers as the dollar strengthened to its highest levels in more than a decade. Farmers in Texas andCalifornia also struggled to deal with the stronger dollar, and Rust Belt manufactures reported similar problems. Regions depending on the energysector also noted some difficulties, including Texas, the Gulf Coast and North Dakota, as crude oil prices collapsed to 6-year lows. Both the New Yorkand Boston Districts reported that harsh winter weather negatively affected retail business in their Districts.

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector continued to expand at a faster pace in February to reach its highest level in four months, underpinned by steepincreases in output, new orders and employment, data from a survey conducted jointly by Markit Economics, Saudi British Bank and HSBC Bankshowed. The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index, or PMI, climbed to a four -month high of 58.5 in February from 57.8 in January. Areading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. New business received by the non-oil private sector companies increased in February, supportedby a robust expansion in foreign orders. Non-oil private sector output also advanced in February, amid reports of improving demand. Moreover, therate of expansion accelerated to the most marked since October 2014, having eased to the joint-weakest in ten months in January. Subsequently,firms continued to take additional staff in February, extending the current sequence of jobs growth to 11 months. On the price front, input priceinflation slowed for the fourth straight month in February and which was the weakest pace in nine months. Selling prices rose only marginally duringthe month.

Activity in China's services sector grew modestly in February as new orders rose at their quickest pace in three months, a private survey showed justa few days after the central bank cut interest rates to stimulate the world's second-largest economy. The HSBC/Markit Services Purchasing Managers'Index(PMI) picked up to 52.0 last month from January's 51.8 and remained above the 50-point level that separates contraction from growth inactivity on a monthly basis. A sub-index for new orders rose to 52.2 in February from 51.2 in January and the sub-index measuring new business alsorose. Official surveys showed on Sunday that growth in the services sector picked up to 53.9 last month from January's 53.7, which the NationalBureau of Statistics attributed in part to strong holiday spending during the Lunar New Year holidays. China's economic growth slowed to 7.4 percentin 2014 - the weakest in 24 years, from 7.7 percent in 2013, even as the job-creating services sector outperformed the factory sector. A furtherslowdown to around 7 percent is expected this year, even allowing for additional stimulus measures, as a cooling property market, excessmanufacturing capacity and slowing investment weigh on activity.

MCX MENTHAOIL MAR-APR 11.00 LeadNCDEX RMSEED APR-MAY 25.00

NCDEX SYBEANIDR APR-JUN 16.00

Commodity Research, Alpha CommoditiesPage No 6

Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer :This document has been issued by Alpha Commodities for the information of its customers only. Alpha Commodities is governed bythe Forward markets commission of India. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely foryour information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this documentmay come are required to observe these restrictions. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrivedat based upon information obtained in good faith from public sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not beenindependently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completenessor correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been producedindependently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectationscontained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and is provided on an “as is”basis. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and thisdocument is not, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell or subscribe to any commoditiesor other financial instruments. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. Alpha Commodities, its associate andgroup companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damagessustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation inthe prices of commodities, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or fordistribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or otherjurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or wouldsubject Alpha Commodities or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored andbrought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose withoutprior written approval of Alpha Commodities .This document is for the general information and does not take into account theparticular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual customer, and it does not constitute a personalizedrecommendation of any particular commodity or investment strategy. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in thisdocument, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customer’s particular circumstances and, if necessary, seekprofessional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise tosubstantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Alpha Commodities, its associates or group companies do not represent orendorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk.Alpha Commodities, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, includingwithout limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and anyinformation in it. Alpha Commodities, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental,punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, orotherwise, without the prior written permission of Alpha Commodities

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COMMODITY WORLD

2 daily technical morning reportslkp.accordhostings.com › admin › research... · 2015-03-09 ·...

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