2. fish and climate
DESCRIPTION
2. Fish and climate. The forecasts are based on models. The famous "hockey stick". IPCC, 2001. Climate Gate?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
2. Fish and climate
![Page 2: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The forecasts are based on models
![Page 5: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
IPCC, 2001
The famous "hockey stick"
![Page 6: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Climate Gate?
![Page 7: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
“.. a new form of colonialism...The white wealthy western world telling 1.6 billion people in developing world -- predominantly of color -- that they have to have their economies managed, their energy managed all because of climate fears."
![Page 8: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/new-scientist-becomes-non-scientist/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/denial
![Page 9: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
THE world’s leading climate change body has been accused of losing credibility after a damning report into its research practices.A high-level inquiry by the InterAcademy Council (IAC) into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found there was “little evidence” for its claims about global warming.It also said the panel had emphasised the negative impacts of climate change and made “substantive findings” based on little proof.
![Page 10: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
http://www.climatedepot.com/
![Page 12: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Global temperature trends:
for the last 1,000 years …
for the last 10,000 years …
for the last 1,000,000 years …
NASA, 1998
It seems as if temperatures have always been changing!
![Page 13: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NIPCC
Non-governmentalInternationalPanel onClimate Change
March 2008
Available on line from www.heartland.org
Follow the debate: See http://www.climatedepot.com/
![Page 14: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Environmental changes
What are the fishery, environmental, and trophic effects in historical data?
Can we use ‘short-term’ predictions from multiple regression models?
Two kind of predictions:•What happens when?•What happens if?
IPCC 2001, Box 6-1
![Page 15: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Normalised catches of 11 commercial fish species (accounting for about 40% of the world’s marine catch) have fluctuated together over the20th century.
Catches also show a strong relationship with the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI).
ACI is a large-scale, multi-decadal climatic index based on the direction of atmospheric air mass transfer.
Adapted from Klyashtorin (2001)
IGBP Science Series,“Marine Ecosystems and Global Change http://ioc.unesco.org
![Page 16: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global ecosystem Includes atmosphere,lithospherebiosphere
Modified from Karl et al. (2003)
![Page 17: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Artist: Glynn Gorick
All biological production in the sea depends on plankton
Iverson (1990)
![Page 19: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Regional Climatology Affects Ecosystems
The Northern Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO)
![Page 20: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
NAO Index
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
The Northern Atlantic Oscillation
The Atlantic Multidecal Oscillations (AMO)
Sutton and Hodson(2005)
![Page 21: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
North sea changes
Trends in the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (CPR) data. Annual mean biomass (mg C m-3) in the upper 10m, and as a proportion of the biomass of species representing all omnivorous zooplankton. http://www.igbp.kva.se/documents/recources/NL_47.pdf
![Page 22: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Changes in species composition between a cold water and warm water temperate
copepod species in the North sea.
![Page 23: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Relationship between annual abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from CPR Surveys and the winter NAO index 1958-1955 in the North Sea. Blue triangles are from when the relationship broke down in the late 1990s. Redrawn in Skjoldal (2004) after Reid and Beaugrand (2002)
r2 = 0.58
Climate (NAO) influence biology
![Page 24: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring and the long term-
averaged temperature (the AMO signal)
Toresen og Østvedt (2000)
![Page 25: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
El Niño-Southern Oscillation Historical sea surface temperature index (ENSO)
El Niño and La Niña events are characterized by warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. They are also associated with changes in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Once developed, El Niño and La Niña events are known to shift the seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in many different regions of the world, even ones that are distant from the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
For publications on ENSO and fisheries see:http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/elninobib/fisheries/
![Page 26: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
El NiñoEl Niño
Comparison of El Niño conditions (left) with normal conditions (right).
http://coastwatch.noaa.gov/images/Sea_Surface_Temperature.ppt
![Page 27: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) index and modeled primary production (integrated from the surface to 120m) between 1962 and 2000. During the negative PDO, before 1978, the equatorial Pacific was cooler and primary productivity was higher. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the PDO was in the positive phase and, therefore, productivity in general was lower. http://www.ncsu.edu/kenan/ncsi/Docs/Presentations/Duke2.ppt
![Page 29: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Climate change
Time series of departures from the 1961 to 1990 base period for an annual mean global temperature of 14.0°C (bars) and for a carbon dioxide mean of 334 ppmv (solid curve) during the base period. From Karl et al. (2003)
![Page 30: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Present level
Present level
![Page 31: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Historical data examined shows changes in the ocean heat content (to depths of 3000 m) to be slowly increasing with substantial decadal time scale variations related to climate variability.
Levitus et al (Science, 1999)
![Page 32: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Cod Recruitment and TemperatureCod Recruitment and Temperature
Mean Annual Bottom Temperature11
10
9
8
7
6
4
3
2
Temp
Warm Temperatures
decreases Recruitment
Warm Temperatures
increases Recruitment
Recruits
Planque and Fredou (1999)From Drinkwater (2004)
![Page 33: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
R2 = 0.75
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Bottom Temperature
d(R
ecru
itm
ent)
/dT
If BT < 5° and T warms stock recruitment generally increase
If BT between 5° and 8.5°C little change in recruitment
If BT >8.5°C recruitment generally decreases
If BT ≥ 12°C we do not see any cod stocks
Cod Recruitment and TemperatureCod Recruitment and Temperature
Drinkwater (2004)
![Page 34: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Lan
din
gs i
n t
ho
usan
d t
on
nes
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Tem
pera
ture
Cod landings at Greenland
http://www.ices.dk/globec/data/presentations/Climate%20change%20and%20fisheries.ppt#267,6,Cod landings at Greenland
![Page 35: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
North sea
Examples of North Sea fish that have moved north with climatic warming. Relationships between mean latitude and 5-year running mean winter bottom temperature for (A) cod, (B) anglerfish, and (C) snake blenny. In (D), ranges of shifts in mean latitude are shown. Bars on the map illustrate only shift ranges of mean latitudes, not longitudes. From Perry et al. (2005)
![Page 36: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
from Quero, Du Buit and Vayne, 1998
![Page 37: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
North sea cod – fishing or environment?
![Page 38: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Yie
ld (
t)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Annual landings of sole in the Kattegat-Skagerrak (ICES Division IIIA).
![Page 39: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Sea level changes
http://www.ipcc.ch/present/cop7/part2.ppt
![Page 40: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
IPPC, WG1 TS Figure 24
![Page 41: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Consequences for the Corals?
![Page 42: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
• Biologically little is known, but there seems to be a correlation between sea temperatures and coral bleaching.
A. Coral showing normally pigmented regions and bleached regions to the upper side more sunlit side ofcolony. B. Coral in shallows showing similar pattern.
Photographer: O. Hoegh-Guldberg.
Coral bleaching
![Page 43: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Coral bleaching
Regions where major coral reef bleaching events have taken place during the past 15 years. Yellow spots indicate major bleaching events. http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm
![Page 44: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Distribution of coral bleaching events in 1998
www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/aer9/causes.htm
![Page 45: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Coral bleaching
Weekly sea surface temperature data for Tahiti (149.5oW 17.5oS). Arrows indicate bleaching events reported in the literature. Horizontal line indicates the minimum temperature above which bleaching events occur (threshold temperature). Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)
![Page 46: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Coral bleaching
Number of reef provinces bleaching since 1979. Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)
![Page 47: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Predictions
• IPCC predicts a 1-2°C rise in SST with doubling of CO2
• McWilliams et al. predicts 100% bleaching of coral colonies in the Caribbean with a rise in SST of only 0.85°C
McWilliams et al 2005. Ecology. 86(8)
![Page 48: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Final comments
• Future climate changes are expected
• Impact on fish production unknown
• Individual stocks may change in abundance locally
• If stock increases the cause will be attributed to ‘environment’
• If the stock decrease the cause will be attributed to ‘overfishing’ and/or ‘climate change’
![Page 49: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Record Heat Record Ice Melt Record Coral Bleaching Record Hurricane season
Record Droughts
Time for fighting climate change?
Thank you!
![Page 51: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Thank you!
![Page 52: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Leftover slides
![Page 53: 2. Fish and climate](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062409/568148ca550346895db5e664/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Time-series of relative sea level for the past 300 years from Northern Europe. The scale bar indicates ±100 mm. IPCC 2001(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg1TARtechsum.pdf)