20 countries, 20 macro variables...
TRANSCRIPT
Pawel Borowski | Economic Data and Research Analyst
30 August 2019
20/20 Vision – August 2019
20 Countries, 20 Macro Variables Monitored
Economics
1 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Contents
Fitch’s economics team focuses on 20 major economies – developed and emerging – in its assessment of global economic prospects and global macro risks.
A GDP weighted average of the “Fitch 20” countries closely tracks the IMF’s measure of global GDP growth (using US dollar GDP weights derived at market exchange rates).
Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook report forecasts world growth using the “Fitch 20” GDP aggregate.
This bi-monthly macro data dashboard tracks 20 high-frequency data series for each of the “Fitch 20” countries (plus the eurozone): GDP, industrial production, PMI, exports, imports, retail sales, consumer confidence, wage inflation, employment, unemployment, CPI, PPI, house prices, exchange rates (nominal and real), bond yields, policy rates, money supply, share prices, household loans and corporate loans.
The charts show five years of historical data for each series – enough to place the latest observations in the context of recent cyclical developments.
The choice of data series has been harmonised as far as possible across all the “Fitch 20” to facilitate comparisons.
The Fitch 20/20 Vision chart pack offers a unique graphic snapshot of economic developments across the major economies that are key in driving world growth.
1 United States 2
2 Eurozone 4
3 China 6
4 Japan 8
5 United Kingdom 10
6 Germany 12
7 France 14
8 Italy 16
9 Spain 18
10 Switzerland 20
11 Australia 22
12 Canada 24
13 Brazil 26
14 Russia 28
15 India 30
16 Korea 32
17 Indonesia 34
18 Mexico 36
19 Poland 38
20 Turkey 40
21 South Africa 42
2 20/20 Vision – August 2019
United States – Activity and Labour Market
2
4
6
8
10
0
100
200
300
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (x1000) Changes in Non-Farm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, US BLS, Haver Analytics
US: Employment
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, US Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
US: Export and Import Volumes
40
45
50
55
60
65
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production (LHS)
ISM PMI Index
Markit PMI Manufacturing
Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, ISM, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
US: Industrial Production
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Average Weekly Earnings (Private)
Average Hourly Earnings (Private)
Source: Fitch Ratings, US BLS, Haver Analytics
US: Nominal Earnings Growth
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Consumer Spending
Retail Sales
Consumer Confidence (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, OECD, the Conference Board, Haver Analytics
US: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, US BEA, Haver Analytics
US: Real GDP Growth
3 20/20 Vision – August 2019
United States – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
-4
0
4
8
12
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation (LHS) House Prices
PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, US BLS, Haver Analytics
US: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
10Y Treasury Yield Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, US Treasury, Haver Analytics
US: Policy Interest Rate and 10y Treasury Yield
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.51,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(EURUSD) (Index)
S&P 500 Composite Equity Index
EURUSD (RHS, inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Standard and Poor’s, Fed, Haver Analytics
US: Daily Stock Price and FX
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, Haver Analytics
US: Money Supply
90
100
110
120
1301.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (EURUSD)
EURUSD (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, WM/Reuters, IMF, Haver Analytics
US: Exchange Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, Haver Analytics
US: Household and Corporate Loans
4 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Eurozone – Activity and Labour Market
-28
-21
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
28
35
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, European Commission , Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Export and Import Volumes
41
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Industrial Production (LHS)
EC Economic Sentiment (Jan 2010=50)
PMI Manufacturing
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Industrial Production
7.0
8.5
10.0
11.5
13.0
-2
-1
0
1
2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Employment
-1.6
-0.8
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Real GDP Growth
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Nominal Earnings Growth
5 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Eurozone – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
80
84
88
92
96
1000.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDEUR)
USDEUR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, ECB, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Exchange Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Money Supply
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation House Prices
PPI (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%) EMU Government 10Y Bond Yield*
Policy Interest Rate (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield
* debt weighted average
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
200
250
300
350
400
450
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDEUR) (Index) Euro STOXX USDEUR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, STOXX, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Daily Stock Price and FX
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Household and Corporate Loans*
* adjusted for reclassification
6 20/20 Vision – August 2019
China – Activity and Labour Market
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (Volume, %
yoy, 3mma)
House Prices Starts (LHS)
Sales (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, China Index Academy / Soufun, Haver Analytics
China: Housing Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, China Customs, NBS, Haver Analytics
China: Export and Import Volumes
80
90
100
110
120
130
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (Value, LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, Haver Analytics
China: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, Caixin/Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
China: Industrial Production
6
8
10
12
14
16
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (Ratio) Vacancy To Job Seeker Ratio
Nominal Earnings (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, MOHRSS of China, NBS, Haver Analytics
China: Labour Market
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, Haver Analytics
China: Real GDP growth
7 20/20 Vision – August 2019
China – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
80
85
90
95
100
105
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2015=100) (USDCNY) USDCNY REER (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, OECD, Haver Analytics
China: Exchange Rates
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, The People's Bank of China, Haver Analytics
China: Money Supply
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (1 year loan rate)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Tullett Prebon Information, CSIC, Haver Analytics
China: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDCNY) (Index)
Shanghai SE Price Index
USDCNY (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Fed, Haver Analytics
China: Daily Stock Price and FX
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy)
Consumer Price Index
Purchasing Price Index
Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, Haver Analytics
China: CPI and PPI Inflation
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
China: Household and Corporate Loans
8 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Japan – Activity and Labour Market
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%, Index)
Industrial Production (% yoy)
Tankan Business Condition (Diffusion Index)
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Japan, METI, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Japan: Industrial Production
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan MIAC, Haver Analytics
Japan: Employment
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
Nominal Earnings
Disposable Income (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan MHLW, MIAC, Haver Analytics
Japan: Nominal Earnings Growth
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan METI, Cabinet Office of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma, NSA) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Finance of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Export and Import Volumes
-6.0
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Cabinet Office of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Real GDP growth
9 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Japan – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
11060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDJPY)
USDJPY (LHS) REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Exchange Rates
-0.15
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Finance Japan, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) House Prices CPI Inflation PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan MIAC, MLITT, Haver Analytics
Japan: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Money Supply
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
x1000)
Th
ou
san
ds
NIKKEI 225 Average Price Index USDJPY (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, NIKKEI, Haver Analytics
Japan: Daily Stock Price and FX
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics
Japan: Household and Corporate Loans
10 20/20 Vision – August 2019
United Kingdom – Activity and Labour Market
44
47
50
53
56
59
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Markit/CIPS, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
UK: Industrial Production
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Haver Analytics
UK: Export and Import Volumes
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Haver Analytics
UK: Nominal Earnings Growth
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%, Balance) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, OECD, Haver Analytics
UK: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Haver Analytics
UK: Employment
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Haver Analytics
UK: Real GDP Growth
11 20/20 Vision – August 2019
United Kingdom – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply M4 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, BoE, Haver Analytics
UK: Money Supply
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
2,500
2,800
3,100
3,400
3,700
4,000
4,300
4,600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(GBPUSD) (Index) FTSE All Share Price Index
GBPUSD (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, FTSE, BoE, Haver Analytics
UK: Daily Stock Price and FX
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BoE, Haver Analytics
UK: Household and Corporate Loans
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, BoE, Haver Analytics
UK: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation House Prices (RHS)
PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, UK Land Registry, ONS, Haver Analytics
UK: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (GBPUSD) GBPUSD REER (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, BoE, IMF, Haver Analytics
UK: Exchange Rates
12 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Germany – Activity and Labour Market
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Monthly Earnings Hourly Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, Haver Analytics
Germany: Nominal Earnings Growth
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bundesagentur fur Arbeit, Haver
Analytics
Germany: Employment
-4
0
4
8
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, Haver Analytics
Germany: Export and Import Volumes
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production (LHS)
PMI Manufacturing
IFO Business Climate (Jan 2011=50)
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Germany: Industrial Production
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%, Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, IFO, DG ECFIN, Haver Analytics
Germany: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Haver Analytics
Germany: Real GDP Growth
13 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Germany – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
-5
0
5
10
15
-1
0
1
2
3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation House Prices (RHS)
PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Europace AG, Haver Analytics
Germany: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
96
98
100
102
104
106
1080.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDEUR)
USDEUR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, OECD, Haver Analytics
Germany: Exchange Rates
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, ECB, Haver Analytics
Germany: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, Haver Analytics
Germany: Money Supply
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDEUR)
(Index,
x1000)
DAX Share Price Index
USDEUR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Börse, Haver Analytics
Germany: Daily Stock Price and FX
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Germany: Household and Corporate Loans*
* adjusted for reclassification
14 20/20 Vision – August 2019
France – Activity and Labour Market
42
46
50
54
58
62
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
France: Industrial Production
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
France: Export and Import Volumes
75
81
87
93
99
105
111
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Haver Analytics
France: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Haver Analytics
France: Real GDP Growth
7.9
8.2
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.4
9.7
10.0
10.3
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Haver Analytics
France: Employment
0
1
2
3
4
5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Manual Worker Average Hourly Salary
Gross Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Haver Analytics
France: Nominal Earnings Growth
15 20/20 Vision – August 2019
France – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
-5
0
5
10
15
-1
0
1
2
3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation (LHS) PPI
House Prices
Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
France: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDEUR) (Index) CAC 40 SE Price Index USDEUR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Financial Times, Haver Analytics
France: Daily Stock Price and FX
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
France: Household and Corporate Loans*
* adjusted for reclassification
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banque de France, ECB, Haver Analytics
France: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
1120.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2015=100) (USDEUR)
USDEUR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, OECD, Haver Analytics
France: Exchange Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banque de France, Haver Analytics
France: Money Supply
16 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Italy – Activity and Labour Market
41
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Italy: Industrial Production
70
80
90
100
110
120
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Household Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Haver Analytics
Italy: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Nominal Hourly Wages
Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Haver Analytics
Italy: Nominal Earnings Growth
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Italy: Export and Import Volumes
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy) Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Haver Analytics
Italy: Employment
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1.2
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq) Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Haver Analytics
Italy: Real GDP Growth
17 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Italy – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) House Prices Inflation PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Istat, Haver Analytics
Italy: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDEUR) (Index,
x1000)
FTSE MIB Performance Price Index
USDEUR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, FTSE, Haver Analytics
Italy: Daily Stock Price and FX
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government Bond 10y Yield
Policy Interest Rate (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Italy, ECB, Haver Analytics
Italy: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yields
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
1040.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2015=100) (USDEUR)
USDEUR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, OECD, Haver Analytics
Italy: Exchange Rates
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Italy, Haver Analytics
Italy: Money Supply
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Italy: Household and Corporate Loans*
* adjusted for reclassification
18 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Spain – Activity and Labour Market
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Spain: Industrial Production
-48
-36
-24
-12
0
12
24
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index, net
balance) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Bank of Spain, Haver Analytics
Spain: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Spain: Export and Import Volumes
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Haver Analytics
Spain: Real GDP Growth
14
17
20
23
26
29
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Spain: Employment
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(Index,
1q11=100) (% yoy)
Labour Cost
Agreed Wages (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security, INE, Haver
Analytics
Spain: Earnings Growth
19 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Spain – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDEUR)
(Index,
x1000)
IBEX 35 Stock Price Index
USDEUR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bolsa de Madrid, ECB, Haver Analytics
Spain: Daily Stock Price and FX
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation (LHS) House Prices
PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Ministry of Development of Spain, Haver Analytics
Spain: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Spain, Haver Analytics
Spain: Money Supply
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Spain, ECB, Haver Analytics
Spain: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
1080.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2015=100) (USDEUR)
USDEUR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, OECD, Haver Analytics
Spain: Exchange Rates
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics
Spain: Household and Corporate Loans*
* adjusted for reclassification
20 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Switzerland – Activity and Labour Market
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% Balance) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, SEC, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index)
(% yoy,
3m.m.a.)
Industrial Production PMI (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Swiss FSO, procure.ch, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Industrial Production
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, SECO, FSO, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Employment
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy, NSA) (% qoq, SA)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SECO, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Real GDP Growth
-4
0
4
8
12
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Exports (excl. gold) Imports (excl. gold)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SECO, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Export and Import Volumes Switzerland: Export and Import Volumes
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Nominal Earnings Growth
21 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Switzerland – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDCHF) (Index,
x1000) Swiss Market Index USDCHF (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SWX Swiss Exchange, Swiss National Bank, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Daily Stock Price and FX
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, SNB, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Money Supply
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% pp)
Swiss Confederation 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, SNB, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield
105
110
115
120
125
130
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDCHF) USDCHF REER (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SNB, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Exchange Rates
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) HICP PPI House Prices
Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, SNB, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: HICP, PPI and House Price Inflation
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
Switzerland: Household and Corporate Loans
22 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Australia – Activity and Labour Market
85
90
95
100
105
110
0
1
2
3
4
5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(Index) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Sentiment
Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Westpac/Melbourne Institute, Haver Analytics
Australia: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
0
1
2
3
4
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, Melbourne Institute, Haver Analytics
Australia: Nominal Earnings Growth
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Australian Industry Group, Haver Analytics
Australia: Industrial Production
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Haver Analytics
Australia: Employment
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Australia: Export and Import Volumes
Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Haver Analytics
1
2
3
4
5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Haver Analytics
Australia: Real GDP Growth
23 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Australia – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation PPI
House Prices (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Haver Analytics
Australia: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1150.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDAUD)
USDAUD (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of Australia, Haver Analytics
Australia: Exchange Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% pp)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of Australia, Haver Analytics
Australia: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
Australia: Household and Corporate Loans
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index)
Australia: Daily Stock Price and FX
ASX 200 Stock Price Index USDAUD (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, S&P & ASX, Haver Analytics
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of Australia, Haver Analytics
Australia: Money Supply
24 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Canada – Activity and Labour Market
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Canada: Industrial Production
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Real GDP Growth
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index
Diffusion)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Datastream
Canada: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Employment
-4
0
4
8
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Export and Import Volumes
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Nominal Earnings Growth
25 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Canada – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Money Supply
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation (LHS)
House Prices - Composite 11
Purchasing Price Index
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics of Canada, Teranet - National Bank, Haver Analytics
Canada: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1100.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDCAD)
USDCAD (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Canada, IMF, Haver Analytics
Canada: Exchange Rates
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.510
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDCAD)
(Index,
x1000)
TSX Stock Price Index
USDCAD (RHS, inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, S&P TSX, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Daily Stock Price and FX
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Corporate Loans (LHS) Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics
Canada: Household and Corporate Loans
26 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Brazil – Activity and Labour Market
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Real GDP Growth
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Industrial Production
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
5.5
7.0
8.5
10.0
11.5
13.0
14.5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Employment
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy)
Brazil: Earnings Growth
Real Wages CPI Inflation
Nominal Wages
Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Haver Analytics
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, OECD, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Export and Import Volumes
27 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Brazil – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.540
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDBRL) (Index,
x1000)
BOVESPA Stock Price Index
USDBRL (RHS, inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver
Analytics
Brazil: Daily Stock Price and FX
0
4
8
12
16
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Tullett Prebon Information, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver
Analytics
Brazil: Interest Rate and Government 10Y Bond Yield
0
4
8
12
16
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Money Supply
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation PPI
House Prices (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Banco Central do Brazil, FGV, Haver Analytics
Brazil: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
50
60
70
80
90
100
1101.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDBRL) USDBRL (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco Central do Brasil, IMF, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Exchange Rates
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver Analytics
Brazil: Household and Corporate Loans
28 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Russia – Activity and Labour Market
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Nominal Wages Real Wages
Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, Haver Analytics
Russia: Earnings Growth
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Rosstat, Haver Analytics
Russia: Employment
-35
-28
-21
-14
-7
0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index, net
balance) (% yoy)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, Haver Analytics
Russia: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-3.6
-2.4
-1.2
0.0
1.2
2.4
3.6
-1.8
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
1q13 3q131q143q141q15 3q151q16 3q161q17 3q171q18 3q181q19
(% yoy) (I% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, Haver Analytics
Russia: Real GDP Growth
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Russia: Industrial Production
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Exports of goods Imports of goods
Source: Fitch Ratings, Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics
Russia: Export and Import Volumes
29 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Russia – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
20
40
60
80
100500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDRUB) (Index) TSX Stock Price Index (LHS)
USDRUB (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Moscow Exchange, CBR, Haver Analytics
Russia: Daily Stock Price and FX
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Haver Analytics
Russia: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Haver Analytics
Russia: Money Supply
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy)
Household Loans
Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Haver Analytics
Russia: Household and Corporate Loans
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation PPI
House Prices (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, BIS, Haver Analytics
Russia: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
16020
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (USDRUB)
USDRUB (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Haver Analytics
Russia: Exchange Rates
30 20/20 Vision – August 2019
India – Activity and Labour Market
4.0
5.5
7.0
8.5
10.0
0
1
2
3
4
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq) Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics
India: Real GDP Growth
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, OECD, Haver Analytics
India: Export and Import Volumes
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index)
(% yoy,
3mma) Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of India, Nikkei/Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
India: Industrial Production
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Units, % yoy,
3mma,) Passenger cars Two-Wheelers
Source: Fitch Ratings, SIAM of India, Datastream
India: Two-Wheeler and Passenger Car Sales
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Infrastructure Sector Growth
Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Haver Analytics
India: Infrastructure Industries Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Private Consumption
Source: Fitch Ratings, Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics
India: Private Consumption
31 20/20 Vision – August 2019
India – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
0
5
10
15
20
25
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
India: Household and Corporate Loans
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of India, Haver Analytics
India: Money Supply
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation PPI
House Prices (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, MOSPI, Oxford Economics, OEAGI, Haver Analytics
India: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
95
100
105
110
115
120
12545
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2004/05=100) (USDINR)
USDINR
REER (RHS, inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of India, Haver Analytics
India: Exchange Rates
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of India, Haver Analytics
India: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000
36,000
40,000
44,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDINR) (Index)
S&P BSE SENSEX Index
USDINR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, BSE, Reserve Bank of India, Haver Analytics
India: Daily Stock Price and FX
32 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Korea – Activity and Labour Market
0
2
4
6
8
10
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Gross Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Employment and Labor of South Korea, Haver
Analytics
Korea: Nominal Earnings Growth
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics
Korea: Export and Import Volumes
92
100
108
116
124
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics
Korea: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
45.5
47.0
48.5
50.0
51.5
53.0
54.5
56.0
57.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Nikkei/Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Korea: Industrial Production
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Haver Analytics
Korea: Employment
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) (% qoq)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics
Korea: Real GDP Growth
33 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Korea – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics
Korea: Money Supply
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDKRW) (Index)
KOSPI Stock Price Index
USDKRW (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Korea Stock Exchange, Haver Analytics
Korea: Daily Stock Price and FX
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation (LHS) House Prices
PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Kookmin Bank, Haver Analytics
Korea: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
86
90
94
98
102
1061,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (USDKRW)
USDKRW (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Korea, OECD, Haver Analytics
Korea: Exchange Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% pp)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Thomson Reuters, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics
Korea: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
Korea: Households and Corporate Loans
34 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Indonesia – Activity and Labour Market
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% qoq) (% yoy)
Quarterly GDP Growth (RHS)
Annual GDP Growth
Source: Fitch Ratings, Badan Pusat Statistik, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Real GDP Growth
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank Indonesia
Indonesia: Nominal Earnings Growth
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy)
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
Source: Fitch Ratings, OECD, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Export and Import Volumes
94
100
106
112
118
124
130
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
46
48
50
52
54
56
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Badan Pusat Statistik, Nikkei/Markit, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Industrial Production
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Employment
35 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Indonesia – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
116
1208,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDIDR)
USDIDR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Financial Times, Reuters, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Exchange Rates
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDIDR) (Index)
Jakarta Composite Price Index
USDIDR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Financial Times, Reuters, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Daily Stock Price and FX
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) (%)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (LHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Tullett Prebon Information, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield
0
10
20
30
40
50
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Household and Corporate Loans
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) CPI Inflation House Prices PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics
Indonesia: Money Supply
36 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Mexico – Activity and Labour Market
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Industrial Production
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Employment
66
75
84
93
102
111
120
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Mexico: Export and Import Volumes
Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Haver Analytics
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Nominal Contractual Wages
Source: Fitch Ratings, STPS Mexico, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Nominal Earnings Growth
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy,
NSA) (% qoq,
SA)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Real GDP Growth
37 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Mexico – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDMXN) (Index,
x1000) Bolsa IPC Index USDMXN (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Wall Street Journal, Banco de Mexico, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Daily Stock Price and FX
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%) Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco de Mexico, Tullett Prebon Information, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Interest Rate and Government 10Y Bond Yield
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) (% yoy)
Corporate Loans
Household Loans (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Household and Corporate Loans
0
4
8
12
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco de Mexico, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Money Supply
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) CPI House Prices PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal, Haver Analytics
Mexico: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
70
80
90
100
110
120
13010
12
14
16
18
20
22
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDMXN)
USDMXN (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco de Mexico, OECD, Haver Analytics
Mexico: Exchange Rates
38 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Poland – Activity and Labour Market
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% qoq) (% yoy)
Quarterly GDP Growth (RHS)
Annual GDP Growth
Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Poland: Real GDP Growth
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Poland: Industrial Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Poland: Nominal Earnings Growth
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Haver Analytics
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy) Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Haver Analytics
Poland: Employment
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma)
Poland: Export and Import Volume
Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Haver Analytics
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Net
balance)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, European Commission, Haver Analytics
Poland: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
39 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Poland – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, National Bank of Poland, Haver Analytics
Poland: Money Supply
85
90
95
100
1052.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (USDPLN)
USDPLN (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, National Bank of Poland, OECD,, Haver Analytics
Poland: Exchange Rates
2.5
2.8
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.0
4.3
4.6
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDPLN)
(Index,
x1000)
Warsaw SE WIG Index
USDPLN (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Warsaw Stock Exchange, National Bank of Poland, Haver
Analytics
Poland: Daily Stock Price and FX
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% pp)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reuters, National Bank of Poland, Haver Analytics
Poland: Interest Rate and Government 10Y Bond Yield
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) CPI Inflation House Prices PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Eurostat, Haver Analytics
Poland: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, National Bank of Poland, Haver Analytics
Poland: Household and Corporate Loans
40 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Turkey – Activity and Labour Market
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy, NSA) (% qoq, SA)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Real GDP Growth
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy,
3mma)
Industrial Production
PMI Manufacturing (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Industrial Production
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy,
3mma) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Export and Import Volumes
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Gross Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Nominal Earnings Growth
7.0
8.5
10.0
11.5
13.0
14.5
16.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Employment
41 20/20 Vision – August 2019
Turkey – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) CPI Inflation House Prices PPI
Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics
Turkey: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Money Supply
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
40
55
70
85
100
115
130
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDTRY)
(Index,
x1000)
Borsa Istanbul 100 Index
USDTRY (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Financial Times, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Daily Stock Price and FX
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Household and Corporate Loans
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
Government 10y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Reuters, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield
60
70
80
90
100
110
1201
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDTRY)
USDTRY (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics
Turkey: Exchange Rates
42 20/20 Vision – August 2019
South Africa – Activity and Labour Market
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy)
(% qoq,
annualized)
Quarterly GDP Growth
Annual GDP Growth (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Real GDP Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Gross Nominal Earnings
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Nominal Earnings Growth
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% yoy) Exports Imports
Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Export and Import Volumes
41
44
47
50
53
56
59
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index) (% yoy)
Industrial Production (LHS)
PMI Manufacturing
Source: Fitch Ratings, BER South Africa, Statistics South Africa, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Industrial Production
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
Diffusion)
(% yoy,
3mma)
Retail Sales (LHS)
OECD Consumer Confidence
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, OECD, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
1q19
(% labour
force) (% yoy)
Employment (LHS)
Unemployment Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Employment
43 20/20 Vision – August 2019
South Africa – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets
6
9
12
15
18
25
35
45
55
65
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(USDZAR) (Index,
x1000)
FTSE/JSE All Share Index
USDZAR (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Financial Times, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Daily Stock Price and FX
0
5
10
15
20
25
1q12
3q
12
1q13
3q
13
1q14
3q
14
1q15
3q
15
1q16
3q
16
1q17
3q
17
1q18
3q
18
(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Household and Corporate Loans
01/
03/2
012
01/
08/2
012
01/
01/
2013
01/
06/2
013
01/
11/2
013
01/
04
/2014
01/
09/2
014
01/
02/2
015
01/
07/2
015
01/
12/2
015
01/
05/2
016
01/
10/2
016
01/
03/2
017
01/
08/2
017
01/
01/
2018
01/
06/2
018
01/
11/2
018
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) (% yoy)
CPI Inflation PPI
House Prices (RHS)
Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, BIS, Haver Analytics
South Africa: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(% yoy) M2 Money Supply
Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Money Supply
60
70
80
90
1004
8
12
16
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Index,
2010=100) (USDZAR) USDZAR (LHS)
REER (inverted scale)
Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Exchange Rates
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
Government 10Y Bond Yield
Policy Interest Rate
Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Haver Analytics
South Africa: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield
44 20/20 Vision – August 2019
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