20 year population forcast - pickering · population growth 2020 - 2039. 36% 28% 19% 18% 7% 6% 4%...

Detailed 20 Year Population Forecast

Detailed 20 Year Population Forecast

(based on data collected to December 31, 2019)

Publication Printed March 2020

Table of Contents

Introduction Page i Pickering Neighbourhood Keymap Page 1 South Urban Pickering Neighbourhood 1 – Rosebank Page 2 Neighbourhood 2 – West Shore Page 4 Neighbourhood 3 – Bay Ridges Page 6 Neighbourhood 4 – Brock Industrial Page 8 Neighbourhood 5 – Rougemount Page 10 Neighbourhood 6 – Woodlands Page 12 Neighbourhood 7 – Dunbarton Page 14 Neighbourhood 8 – City Centre Page 16 Neighbourhood 9 – Village East Page 18 Neighbourhood 10 – Highbush Page 20 Neighbourhood 11 – Amberlea Page 22 Neighbourhood 12 – Liverpool Page 24 Neighbourhood 13 –Brock Ridge Page 26 Neighbourhood 14 – Rouge Park Page 28 Neighbourhood 15 – Duffin Heights 0 Seaton Urban Area Neighbourhood 16 – Lamoreaux Page 32 Neighbourhood 17 – Brock-Taunton Page 34 Neighbourhood 18 – Mount Pleasant Page 36 Neighbourhood 19 – Wilson Meadows Page 38 Neighbourhood 20 – Thompson’s Corners Page 40 Neighbourhood 21 – Innovation Corridor page 42 Rural Pickering Claremont & Area Page 44 Greenwood, Kinsale & Estate Residential Clusters Page 46 Remaining Rural Page 48 Unit Summary Page 50 Population Summary Page 51 Methods and Assumptions Page 52

Publication Printed March 2020

The City of Pickering 20 Year Population Forecast

Introduction

The long range forecasts to 2039 are based on: data from the 2016 Census; “Growing Durham: Our Future, Our Community”, the Region of Durham’s Implementation Study, 2008; background work for the City Centre Official Plan Amendment 26; and the status of development applications received by the City as of the end December 2019

Persons Per Unit (ppu) Forecast

3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70

3.02 3.00 2.92 2.87

2.81

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Source: Region of Durham, Table B-6 “Growing Durham, Our Community”

The Region’s Growth Plan Implementation Study states that due largely to the continued aging of the “baby boom” age group over the next 25 years, population growth in Durham has been, and is anticipated to continue to be, low relative to the growth in housing units, resulting in a declining persons per unit ratio. The use of a declining person per unit ratio has resulted in declining forecasted populations in the mature Pickering neighbourhoods of West Shore, Village East, Amberlea, and Liverpool that have limited infill opportunities. Comparisons with forecasts prior to 2014 are not advised as they relied on a single, static persons per unit ratio derived by the Statistics Canada National Household Survey. Population and housing unit forecasts for the City Centre were based on data from the report, “Downtown Pickering, A Vision for Intensification and Framework for Investment, June 2013”, which plans for smaller residential units and households but did not use a declining persons per unit ratio.

Residential Units

The chart below shows that Pickering is expected to experience a significant increase in new residential units in the near term (2019 to 2024) from 32,037 to 43,909 units, with growth in the longer term (2039) forecasted to 67,496 units.

Residential Unit Forecast 2019 - 2039

0

15000

30000

45000

60000

75000

2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 32,037 43,909 53,988 62,359 67,496

The chart below shows that development of new residential units will increase significantly in the 15 year period from 2020 to 2034 with 33 percent growth for the 2019 to 2024 period, 28 percent growth for the 2025 to 2029 period, and 24 percent growth for the 2030 to 2034 period. Lower but still significant residential unit growth of 14 percent is forecast for the 5 year period from 2034 to 2038. The average annual rate of growth over the forecast period is approximately 5 percent per annum.

Residential Unit Growth 2020 - 2039

14% 24% 28% 33%

5% 6% 7% 3% 0%

20%

40%

2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039

Total Unit Growth Annual Average Unit Growth Rate

i

The growth in residential units reflects the anticipated development between 2020 and 2039 primarily in the greenfield areas of Seaton, and Duffin Heights, as well as the intensification of the City Centre. The chart below demonstrates that Seaton will account for the greatest proportion of the City’s growth in residential units in the period of 2020 to 2039 at 56 percent. The City Centre, Duffin Heights, and the rest of Pickering are each forecast to experience similar rates of growth in residential units.


Unit Growth by Area 2020 - 2039

10% Duffin Heights

59% Seaton 15% Rest of Pickering

15% City Centre

Population

Corresponding with the forecasted residential unit growth, the chart below shows that Pickering is expected to experience a significant increase in population in the near term (2020 to 2024) from 92,500 to 124,126 persons, with growth in the longer term (2039) forecasted to 180,942 persons.

Total Population Forecast 2019 - 2039

050,000

100,000150,000200,000

2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 92,500 124,126 148,553 165,136 180,942

This growth reflects an increase in population of 96 percent over the 2020 to 2039 timeframe, or an annual average population growth rate of 4.8 percent. The chart below indicates the percentage growth and the annual average rate of growth rates for five year intervals from 2019 to 2039. The most significant growth occurs over 5 years from 2020 to 2024 at an annual average growth rate of approximately 7.1 percent for the 5 year period, reflecting the commencement of building in Seaton. Between 2034 and 2039, the growth rate slows to an annual average of 3.5 percent.

Population Growth 2020 - 2039

28% 19% 18%

7% 6% 4% 4%

36% 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2020-2024 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039

Total Population Growth Annual Average Population Growth Rate

The chart below shows that Seaton at 64 percent will account for the greatest proportion of the City’s population growth in the period of 2019 to 2039, followed by the City Centre at 13 percent, and then Duffin Heights at 12 percent. During this period, in the rest of Pickering, urban neighbourhoods will continue to mature, experiencing modest growth through infill opportunities and redevelopment.

Population Growth by Area 2020 - 2039

11% City Centre 11% Duffin Heights

66% Seaton

11% Rest of Pickering

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Barclay Forest 21 Estates Creek Staxton Estates Glen 20

Birchwood Estates

19 18 Whitevale Town of Ajax

Planning Neighbourhoods 17

1. Rosebank 2. West Shore 16 3. Bay Ridges 4. Brock Industrial

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13 10. Highbush 11. Amberlea 12. Liverpool 12

Avenue 14 13. Brock Ridge 14. Rouge Park 9 11 15. Duffin Heights 7 10 16. Lamoureaux 8 17. Brock-Taunton 18. Mount Pleasant

6 19. Wilson Meadows 5 20. Thompsons Corners 3 4 21. Innovation Corridor 2 Frenchman's

Bay

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City Development Key Map Department Information Current

© The Corporation of the City of Pickering Produced (in part) under license from: © Queens Printer, Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. All rights reserved.; © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of Natural Resources. All rights reserved.; © Teranet Enterprises Inc. and its suppliers all rights reserved.;© Municipal Property Assessment Corporation and its suppliers all Rights reserved.; THIS IS NOT A PLAN OF SURVEY. To Dec. 2019


Neighbourhood 1 - Rosebank

existing Units; December 31, 2019 - 969 existing population; December 31, 2019 - 2878

Table 1.1 - Vacant Lands

Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 1B infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 35 1C infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 12 1G infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 18

severances based on future potential land severances 12 Total Units 77

Table 1.2 - Proposals & Developments

Proposed Units

Units Units Yet Potential Yet to to Vacant build Occupy Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals LD128/18 to LD133/18 13 13 LD076/12 to 082/12 2 2 SP2016-04 11 11 SP2019-02 11 11 A003/19 4 4 Developments 40M-2654 3 4 7 40M1667 2 2 S06/82(R16) 115 115 Vacant Lands (see Table 1.1) 4 73 77 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

39 5 125 73 242 1211

Table 1.3 - Forecasted Incremental Unit Growth

Total Future Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals LD128/18 to LD133/18 13 7 6 LD076/12 to 082/12 2 2 SP2016-04 11 4 7 SP2019-02 11 5 6 A003/19 4 4 Developments 40M-2654 7 7 7 40M1667 2 2 S06/82(R16) 115 115 Vacant Lands (see Table 1.1) 77 4 5 5 5 5 20 20 13 Unit Increase 242 128 21 24 18 5 20 20 13

Table 1.4 - Total Cumulative Growth

2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Total Units 969 1097 1118 1142 1160 1165 1185 1205 1218 Total Population 2878 3258 3265 3335 3387 3402 3413 692 3423

Page 2 Calculations based on Development Application Status at December 31, 2019

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Vacant Land For Residential Development Neighbourhood 1 City Development

Department Information Current



Neighbourhood 2 - West Shore



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units vacant existing lots yet to be built on 5

Total Units 5


Proposed Units Units Yet Potential Total Units Yet to to Occupy Vacant Future

build Lots Units Proposals SP2019-04 27 27 Vacant Lands (see Table 2.1) 1 4 5 Total Unit Increase 27 0 1 4 32 Total Forecasted Units 2403


Total Future 2025- 2030- 2035-Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2029 2034 2039

Proposals SP2019-04 27 27 Vacant Lands (see Table 2.1) 5 1 Unit Increase 32 1 0 0 27 0 0 0 0


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



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Neighbourhood 3 - Bay Ridges



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 3B infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 9 3C redevelop based on 75% of land area X 75% of max. density 9 Total Units 18


Proposed Units

Units Yet to build

Units Yet to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals A002/17 118 118 OPA19/001P 498 498 Developments CP2016-01 42 42 S02/16 253 253 Vacant Lands (see Table 3.1) 9 9 18 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

869 0 51 9 929 4434



2025-2029

2030- 2035-2034 2039

Proposals A002/17 118 OPA19/001P 498 Developments CP2016-01 42 42 S02/16 253 253 Vacant Lands (see Table 3.1) 19 10 2 2 2 2 1 Unit Increase 929 305 2 2 2 2 1 0 0


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


The Boundary of the Bay Ridges Neighbourhood changed through Official Plan Amendment # 26


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Highway 401 niK

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Parkham Crescent

Browning Avenue

ance

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Poprad Avenue

Tanzer Court

Tatra Drive Drava

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Foxglove Avenue

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L a k e O n t a r i o





Neighbourhood 4 - Brock Industrial


This neighbourhood is designated in the Pickering Official Plan for employment uses and has no residential units. As such this neighbourhood has no bearing on this product at this time. However, we anticipate adding an employment component to this product in the future, so the intent is that page be retained as a place holder for that future component.


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Lake Ontario





Neighbourhood 5 - Rougemount



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 5A infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 3 5B redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 350 5C redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 202 5D redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 97 ** severances based on future potential land severances 5 Total Units 657


Proposed Units

Units Units Yet Yet to to build Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2015-08 22 22 SP2014-03 28 28 Vacant Lands (see Table 5.1 A & **) 5 3 8 (See Table 5.1B-D) 649 649 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

50 0 5 652 707 1754



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2015-08 22 22 SP2014-03 28 28 Vacant Lands (see Table 5.1 A & **) 8 1 1 1 2 (See Table 5.1B-D) 649 176 128 128 Unit Increase 707 1 23 1 2 28 176 128 128


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


NOTE: In table 5.1, Sections 5B, 5C & 5D fall within the Kingston Road Corridor


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Vacant Land For Residential Development Neighbourhood 5 City DevelopmentDepartment Information Current © The Corporation of the City of Pickering Produced (in part) under license from: © Queens Printer, Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. All rights reserved.; © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of Natural Resources. All rights reserved.; © Teranet Enterprises Inc. and its suppliers all rights reserved.;© Municipal Property Assessment Corporation and its suppliers all Rights reserved.; THIS IS NOT A PLAN OF SURVEY. To Dec. 2019


Neighbourhood 6 - Woodlands



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 6A infill based on 75% of land area X 75% of max. density 54 6Bi redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 602 6Bii redevelop based on preliminary discussions with developers 1926 6C-6I redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 1634 ** severances based on future potential land severances 1 Total Units 4217


Proposed Units


Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals A011/19 82 82 A008/16 48 48 SP2004-01 16 16 S04/14 227 227 Vacant Lands (see Table 6.1 A & **) 1 54 55 (see Table 6.1 remaining) 4162 4162 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

325 0 49 4216 4590 5467



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals A011/19 82 82 A008/16 48 48 SP2004-01 16 16 S04/14 227 45 182 Vacant Lands (see Table 6.1 A & **) 55 2 1 50 (see Table 6.1 remaining) 4162 500 500 500 Unit Increase 4590 50 46 182 0 0 598 500 550


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


NOTE: In table 6.1, Sections 6Bi, 6Bii, 6C, 6D, 6E, 6F, 6G, 6H & 6I fall within the Kingston Road Corridor


ve

iower Dr G

ree e s

c ent

S w

Crescent Ariel

l

ve ve

ii

Treetop W

ay te Cedar Dr

e Dr

l

i ver Map Rosebank Road

Wh liS

Drive

Autumn Crescent

Pineview Lane escent

HighbushTrail

Old Fo re st Road

Rosebank Road

L

ve

iR ou ge mo unt Dr

y Road

lliChant

Toynevale Road

Lekani

Court

ve

i

n A sh Dr ive

Oakwood Dr

eod Crescent a Crescent

Rosebank Road

ilDah

liMounta Mc

Lau

Broadoak

Crescent

Br aeburn C

Foxwood Traew

iGardenv

Square

Barry Drive

Edmund D

rive

Daylight C

Sundown Crescent

ace

lghtfoot P

Steeple Hill

i

Kingston

Road

Beckwor

berwoo

Am

dC

Sheppard Avenue

Sultan

N

a Squ a re

orfol k

Flavelle Court

tSquare

Bayfield Street

il Weyburn Square

t Weyburn Square

Crescent Woodruff

dfliW

Woodsmere Crescent wood Court

Dencourt Drive

W

Marinet Crescent

BaylyStreet

CowanCirc

le

ands

m Street

Granite Court

SandstoneMa

ea Road

lAmber

Highway

401

nor

Atw oodCrescent

lMo ore

Crescent

Enge

e

ve

iShadybrook Dr

Hampton Court

l Court C

Cricket Lane

New Street

Edgewood Road

ve

iEyer Dr

Oklahoma Dr

Stonebridge Lane

Downland Drive

reekview Circle

Road

lli

Eastbank Road

Spruce H

venue

AdaCourt

ve

i

crest Road

Sanok Dr

Breda Avenue

lilH

Moretta Avenue

Vicki Drive

ive

Hillview Cresce nt

ve

ictory Dr

iV

SandcastCourt

le

ew Road Park Cr es cent

Marksbury Road

iffvli

C

nvale CrArcadia Square

Drive

Calvington

6D 6F

Rouge Hill Court

6G

Crrr

ie

ourt

Square

hio

CC

rrscee

nnt

h

rescen

S 4/14 Ston

path Circl

ee

Charn

Post Drive

6E

6Bii

6Bi

pringvie

aFern

rscee nt

Rainy Day Drive

Callahan Street

Chartwell

Court

A 08/16 Meado

iw

wA

vv

eenu

Aspn R

rd

d B

oou

ll

ee

eva

aa

Dt

Strouds Lane

Cobblers Court

6A A11/19 6H

6C

Jacqueline A

SP-2004-01 6I

Boadg

n S

rr

ree

eett

Wingarden Crescent

Shd M

aast Drriv

ee

e



Neighbourhood 7 - Dunbarton



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 7A infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 6 7B infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 2 7C infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 8 7D infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 9 7E&7F infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 23 7G redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 125 7H redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 619 7I redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 100



Proposed Units

Units Units Yet to Yet to build Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2019-03 30 30 SP2015-02 9 9 Development 40M2552 4 1 5 Vacant Lands (See Table 7.1) 5 815 820 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

13 1 32 815 834 1759



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2019-03 30 30 SP2015-02 9 9 Development 40M2552 5 1 2 2 Vacant Lands (See Table 7.1) 820 5 5 5 5 25 25 25 Unit Increase 834 1 16 7 5 5 25 25 25


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


NOTE: In table 7.1, Sections 7F, 7G & 7H fall within the Kingston Road Corridor


ood

Duncannon Drive

t

S he

Windgrove

Prim

ros Maury Crescent e Court

Erin Gate LynnHeights

Drive

ve

B iH

arve

st D

raylawn DrivBoulevard Colonial Street e

c ent

rpor

t Roa

d

PiFa

evar

d

Darwin Drive

l

Dee

rbro

ok D

rBe

nton

Cre

scen

t

n G

ate

Bou

Regal Crescent Swan Place iEr

Finch Avenue

Mountcastle C

Parks

escent

e virew

Dide Drive

Gloucester Square

Lydi

a C

r esc

ent

ve

ve i

Dri

ev ive

r Spr

uce

Drl l

Eag

liH

unts

m

e C

o ur t t e a g Lane

Aspe

n R

oad l

Peb b l

Si

Redbird Crescent

er D

rive

ey Aven

Silv

erth

orn

lt

Squa

re

nC

resc

ent

iK lB

ow

Millbank Road

edlaM

New Street

escent

Crre

Hol

bro o

k vei

Cou

rt i

a Sq

uare

iAr

cad

yw

e H

Voyager Avenue Bonita Avenue Woodruff C

tes

Roa

d rescent

Glenanna Road

conw

ood

Way

iW

h

Roa

d

Cricket Lane

lliSp

r uce

H lF a

r po r

t Ro a

d

e yet

Cr e

s cen

t

ve

Strouds Lane scent

s D

rive

ntre

e C

re

iLo

ngbo

w D

r

de C

r es c

ent

iniFa l

w

Raw

ew R

oad l

Fo StorrWalnut Lane

i

List

Hea

ths ingi t

ev onSCrescent el

App treet

ue R

East

b ank

Ro a

d

ue

Court n

nway

Lan

e

ewiw

v

Crescenilv

ebe r

r y A

v enu

e

idgeK

e un

owr

veJacqu Go

dealdenr

Edgewood Road

Spar

tan i

Cou

rt dgeRoad

lR

amb

t ruve

oA

daCi

Shad

y bro

o k D

r

Wey

burn

Squ

are

Co

oad

ton Rr

Dunba

Merritton Road

Kingston Road

Tanzer Court

Highway 401

Bayly Street

Wes

t Sho

re

evar

d

t Crescent Vistula Drive

lB

ou

eniraM

Timmins Gardens

Mon

Maple Ridge Drive

Cda

of C

rr

rs

cc

ee

ent

t

Map

le G

te R

oa

ad

Ala

nbu

yC

rr

scee n

Sq u

a re

Square

ebblestone Crescent

g

Di

iex R

o ad

Taplin Drive

SP-2019-03

Ridgewood Court

ue

Gablehurst Crescent

Brooks hUna Road 7B

7A

Wingarden Crescent 7C

7D 7F

40M-2552

7E

Wingarden Crescent

Welrus Street

SP-2015-02

7G 7H Sheppard Avenue

7I

So n

p at

thC

ircl

ee

Me a

doA

ven

rman CresD

elta

Brd

oule

va

r

Shd

Ma

ast

Drr iv

ee

e

le

e

t

Fl

nc

cs

Div

ee

aa

tt h

mo

or

rr

Ro

Wlla

sto

oCulross Aven

owll

Cr

sce

een

t

eline AM

on

bblers Court





Neighbourhood 8 - City Centre



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 8A redevelop to meet Urban Growth Centre density targets 2814 8C redevelop to meet Urban Growth Centre density targets 1320 Total Units 4134


Proposed Units


Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals A006/19 1416 1416 A008/19 391 391 **A015/19 49 49 S04/19 359 359 S10/19 406 406 S01/18 150 150 S07/17 167 167 S09/17 96 96 S10/17 275 275 S09/18 324 324 Developments S01/16 136 136 Vacant Lands (See Table 8.1) 4134 4134 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

3633 0 136 4134 7903 10168



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals A006/19 1416 605 811 A008/19 391 91 300 **A015/19 49 49 S04/19 359 359 S10/19 406 100 306 S01/18 150 40 110 S07/17 167 50 117 S09/17 96 32 64 S10/17 275 75 150 50 S09/18 324 80 200 44 Developments S01/16 136 136 Vacant Lands (See Table 8.1) 4134 100 100 500 500 500 Unit Increase 7903 0 293 331 230 531 2273 1311 500


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


- unit and population figures were taken from the Downtown Growth Study, April 5, 2012 - The Boundary of the Town Centre Neighbourhood changed through Official Plan Amendment # 26 and the neighbourhood was renamed "City Centre Neighbourhood" - see point 8 in the Methods and assumptions to better understand population and unit density for the City Centre

** this rezoning is split between neighbourhoods 8 & 12 so 1/2 of the proposed units are shown in these tables and the other half are in the tables in neighbourhood 12


Finch Avenue

Lodge Road

e A

n

Bronte Square

Gle

nv

Can

boro

ugh

Cre

scen

t

d R

oad

l eiR

osef

ve

d i

r

e D

r

avelunt l

o

enda B thgl iG ldleiF

oad

Avonmore Square

Valle

y

Ro a

d

Gle

Road nann

lve

rpoo ontsa

ng R iKoai d L

The Esplanade N

Diefenbaker Court

The Esplanade S

le

criCharlotte

C

Pickering Parkway

Highway 401

ance

Roa

d illA

Bayly Street

Poprad Avenue Krosno Boulevard

ReytanBoulevard

Tatra Drive

Grenoble Boulevard Fordon Avenue

Everton Street

Poppy Lane

Fyla

e eC

rsce

e

ton

Squ

a r

Gle

ngro

v eR

8C A06/19

S07/17

Bon

t S

qua

rr

ee

i ew

Ro a

d

S10/19

d F

rmR

oa

a

Mem

ory

Lane

Ma l

d en

Cr e

s ce n

t

S 01/16

S09/17 Brands Court

A15/19 8C

A8/19

8C

8C A06/19

8C

S4/19, 8A S10/17 &

S9/18

S1/18

Sand

y B e

ach

Roa

d

Drava Street





Neighbourhood 9 - Village East



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 9A redevelop based on 38% of land area X 75% of max. density 26 9B redevelop based on 38% of land area X 75% of max. density 14 9C redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 319 9D redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 1208 9E redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 894 9F redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 36 ** severances based on future potential land severances 29 Total Units 2526


Proposed Units


Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals 18T90030 18 18 A026/03 12 12 A011/18 300 300 SP2017-05 9 9 SP2018-03 223 223 Vacant Lands (See Table 9.1 A, B & **) 1 68 69 (See Table 9.1 C&F) 355 355 (See Table 9.1 D) 1208 1208 (See Table 9.1 E) 894 894 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

562 0 1 2525 3088 4959



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals 18T90030 18 A026/03 12 A011/18 300 50 250 SP2017-05 9 9 SP2018-03 136 30 106 Vacant Lands (See Table 9.1 A, B & **) 69 2 2 2 2 20 20 21 (See Table 9.1 C&F) 355 (See Table 9.1 D) 1208 106 160 94 (See Table 9.1 E) 894 150 Unit Increase 3001 0 2 11 32 158 376 180 265


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


NOTE: In table 9.1, Sections 9C, 9D, 9E & 9F fall within the Kingston Road Corridor


Major Oaks Road dwood Crescent

Azure Mews

liW

D ub er ry Drive

rescent

Usman Road

Sunflower Road

Saffron Drive

een

lRay

rd

Crescent

Broc kRoad

Road

l

Kingston

Road

Sou thvew D

i

Castle Hill Court

iNot

ve

i

JaywinCirc

le Marshcourt Dr

Alwin Circle

Roya

ve

idge Dr

inbr

iBa

Denmar R oad

Fairfield Crescent

Blueb

Pickeri

awn Drive

lBeech

Ashford Drive

Geta Circle

Dreyber Court

Portland Court

ng Parkway

Highway 401

on Road

Kellino Street

9A 9B

A26/03 18T-90030 ive

SP2017-05& A10/17

SP2018-03

A 11/18

Guil Roa

dd

9F

Shay Drive

Mcbrady Crescent

Beton W

aay

C

Finch Avenue

9C

9D

i

Town of Ajax

Larksmere Court

Brck R

ooad

9E

Burnside Drive

Kingston Road W

Squirs B

eech Ro

aad



Neighbourhood 10 - Highbush



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 10A infill based on existing character of neighbouhood 4 10B infill based on existing character of neighbouhood 20 10C infill based on existing character of neighbouhood 9 10D infill based on 75%area X 75%density 45

severances future potential land severances 37 Total Units 115


Proposed Units

Units Yet to build

Units Yet to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals S03/15 8 8 S07/16 18 9 27 A011/08 2 2 Developments 40M-1831 3 3 40M-1918 3 3 40M-2164 1 1 2 Vacant Lands (See Table 10.1) 28 87 115 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

0 27 46 87 160 2242



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals S03/15 8 8 S07/16 27 9 18 A011/08 2 1 1 Developments 40M-1831 3 3 40M-1918 3 1 1 1 40M-2164 2 1 1 Vacant Lands (See Table 10.1) 115 5 10 20 20 20 20 20 10 Unit Increase 160 23 30 22 22 20 23 20 10


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Nature Haven Crescent

ew

Co u

rt ie vl

Ma p

Finch Avenue

oodsmere

Driv

e

Shadow Place

ew A

venu

e

Spar

row

Circ

le

iW

o od v

Sum

mer

par k

Cr e

scen

t

o n

Cha

s e

Sandhurst Crescent illSt

a

k ai c

Meldron Drive

Rouge Forest Crescent

W

Crescent Pine Grove Avenue

ve

Sand

cher

ry C

ourt i

Wes

tcre

ek D

r

Mos

sbro

ok

Squ

are

Westcreek Drive

ve

iR

o ckw

ood

Dr

Prohill Street

Sena

tor S

treet

Strouds Lane

ew A

venu

e

y

Treetop WaiW

oodv C

Aut

umn

Cres

cent

a

Lancrest Street lvingtonDrive

Waterford Gate

Wilcroft Court Granby Court

Hog

Sweetbriar Court

Twyn Rivers Drive Avenue

eBrimwood scH

oover Drive

Highbush

Trail

Richardson Street o H

W

Woodv Rougemount Drive i Lew ittleford Street Drive

S 07/16

S 03/15 A l

tn

Ro

oa

ad

tdg

Cr

sce

ee

enVa

lly

Ri

Ashw

ood

Gat

e

A 11/08

White Pine Crescent West Lane 40M-2164

arth Street

Ga

ald

Cr

rs ce

en

n t

V all

yvi

eew

CIT

Y O

F T

OR

ON

TO

Sc

arbo

roug

h Pi

cker

ing

Tow

nlin

e

Bralorne Trail

10D

10B

40M-1831

10A

Copley Street

Secord Street 40M-1918

10C Lawson Street

Sheppard

oodv

iew

Driv

e

Court

ir

sc

ce

een

tt

Thk

C

ee tt

n S

rr

Oak

buw

ellC

re

Ch

rr

ii

vv

ee

e Fo

stw

D

d ee

Cou

rt

nt





Neighbourhood 11 - Amberlea



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 11A infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 12 11B redevelop based on 33% of land area X 75% of max. density 159



Proposed Units Yet Units Yet Units to build to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Vacant Lands (See Table 11.1) 1 171 172 Total Unit Increase 0 0 1 171 172 Total Forecasted Units 4614



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Vacant Lands (See Table 11.1) 172 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Unit Increase 172 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Craighurst Court

m Street

Highview Road

Pebb

Amaretto Avenue

l iar

Sunbird T

t

Erin Gate Baylawn Drive Boulevard

Rougewalk Dr

n G

ate

B oul

evar

d t

Mahogany Courn Drive iDarw

Regal Crescent Cognac Crescent Swan Place i

Er

Finch Avenue

n Sq

uare

Oto

nab e

e D

rive

iSe

gu

Cou

rt Nipissing

Parksi de D

rive

and Court Gracel

e C

ourt

Whi

tes

Roa

d

Ros

eban

k R

oad

Aspe

n R

oad l

Amberlea

Road

Saugeen Drive Eram

osa

C rescent

Roa

d

Sum

mer

par k

Cr e

scen

t

Millbank Road lliSp

ruce

H

rl esa c

New Street

lage

Str e

et

a S q

uar e

iAr

cad

Ariel Crescent

lVi

Woodruff Crescent CG e

wood Court Woodsmere Crescent

Cricket Lane

Edgewood Road

Dencourt Drive

ouds Lane rS

SuS ltq au nare a

Broa

doak

N

Cre

scen

t

East

ban k

Roa

d orfolk e

Flavelle Court

y

Treetop Wa Bayfield Street

Bec

kwor

thC Malv e ingtonDrive

unve

ent

Aut

umn

Cre

s

Brae

burn

C

t ruoA

daCi

Shad

ybro

o k D

r

scen

t

Weyburn Square Pineview Lane

Ambe

rwoo

d

Laur

Cr e

scen

t

e w S

quar

e

G vi

Sheppard Avenue

Spng

w D

rr

ii

iv

ve

e

Fern a

arden

Ctw

ell

Char ou

rt

11B

hio

C

Cs

rr

ce

en

ntN

pn e

e R

oa

aad

Square

ado

iw

wA

vv

ee

e nu

Squ

a re

rsce

ent

Post Drive

ve

pS

one

at

th C

ircle

rsce

e nt

ive

Una Road

11A

Jacqueline A

Foxwood Trail

Cobblers Court

cG

Wh

t C

da Dr

ri

ive

ee

S M

a pl

l D

rr

ii

vv

ee

e W

d fllo

w Dr

ri

ive

e

e

K

iCr

re

irkw

ood

Lan e

ent

and Cr

reenval

Charn

Vacant Land For Residential Development Neighbourhood 11

© The Corporation of the City of Pickering Produced (in part) under license from: © Queens Printer, Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. All rights reserved.; © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of Natural Resources. All rights reserved.; © Teranet Enterprises Inc. and its suppliers all rights reserved.;© Municipal Property Assessment Corporation and its suppliers all Rights reserved.; THIS IS NOT A PLAN OF SURVEY.

Weyburn Square

City Development Department

Information Current To Dec. 2019


Neighbourhood 12 - Liverpool



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 12A infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 18 12B infill based on existing character of neighbourhood 7 12C redevelop based on 75% of land area X 75% of max. density 24 12D redevelop based on 75% of land area X 75% of max. density 36 12E redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 548 12F redevelop based on 33% of land area X 75% of max. density 76 12G redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 692 12H redevelop see point 10 in methods and assumptions 249 Total Units 1650


Proposed Units

Units Yet to build

Units Yet to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals **A015/19 49 49 LD109/19 to LD111/19 4 4 S01/07 20 20 Vacant Lands (see Table 12.1) 1650 1650 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

73 0 0 1650 1723 7735



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals **A015/19 49 49 LD109/19 to LD111/19 4 4 S01/07 20 Vacant Lands (see Table 12.1) 1650 30 30 30 30 Unit Increase 1674 0 4 0 0 30 30 30 30


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


The Boundary of the Liverpool Neighbourhood changed through Official Plan Amendment # 26

** this rezoning is split between neighbourhoods 8 & 12 so 1/2 of the proposed units are shown in these tables and the other half are in the tables in neighbourhood 8

NOTE: In table 12.1, Sections 12C, 12D, 12E, 12F, 12G & 12H fall within the Kingston Road Corridor However, the report does not estimate the number of units that sections C-E could yield


FlPolraecne tin

Whites R

oad

Shadybrook Dr

Craighurs

t Court

Parks

Aspen Road

M

ve

i Edgewood Road

Pebble Court

ErinG

ate

Bouleva rd

Bayla

e

wn D

n Gate

evard

Darwin Drive liEr Bou

Crescent

Regal

ide Drive

New Street

Road

lli

Strouds L

ane

Spruce H

Eastbank Road

Avenue

CobbCourt

lers

e

ane

lMeadow

o

y Road

lDr iv

y h

e ed

r

Primrose Lynn Heigh

Court

t

anbury

lA Crescent

s Drive Crescent

Maury

man

cent

DuncannonDrive

ve ve

Mountcast

i

iew Dr

iev ver Spruce Dr

Crescent le

l ve li

iDr

l li

Eag S Hunts m

Crescent

Redbird

GabCrescent lehurst

Brook verthorn

Square sh i l

ir Se

Bonita Avenue

rport Road

iFa

ew Road

de Crescent

ve

i

i

iev Heaths

Longbow Dr

lApp

Rathmore Crescent

eberry Avenue

concrest

ve

iDr

lFa

Ram

bl

DunbartonRoa

d

Marinet Cresce

nt

Hillcrst Road West Shore

evard

Vistula Drive

Dixie R

oad

Square

gs Drive

Kingston

R

Cre sc en t

Highway 401

Pine Glen D

rive Gossam

er Drive

Wildrose

Crescent

Windgro

S

ve

Cedar c

Pebb

r oft C r e

a Crescent

Square

iLyd

eyet

lFo Crescent

oad

Bayly Street

Tanzer

Fields toneCircle

Cre scent

lestone Barnwoo

ve

ier Dr

lBow

Malden Crescent

Glenann

onte Square

B

Court

Ra

Blue Rid

ge

Rigby Drive

Abbe

escent

d

Square

ve

ie Dr

lenda

lG

dom Street

lBou DuglasAvenue

Chapleau

Drive

L iverpool R

ad

Bridl

C

e

ircPa

Lie

aA ton

ee

lFay

Crescent

Fieldlight Bo

Poprad Avenue

Tatra Dr

le th

nwood Street

Parkdalulevard e Street

Pickering Pa

rkway

oad

Rosefield

Popp y

eng rove Road

G

The Esplana

de N

ive

Fordon Avenue

Garvolin Avenue

Crescent

Somergrove

Major O

aks Road

Greenmount St

Strathmore

C

DenvaleDrive

ad

Lane

ew Road

iGl env

KrosnoBoulevard

ReytanBoulevard

Dellbrook Avenue

Crescent

Bentley Lane

Middleton

Street M

eriado

Pepperwood Gate

reet

Wil dwood

Crescen t

Ho l

dwood

liW Crescent

ge

Drive

Avonmore

Square

AvenueZator

Sonepa

tth Circle

adovi

ee

ww

Wingarden

Sheppard Avenue

Crsceent

Third Concession Road Fipr

rt R

oo

aad

Sher quare

rive

Crsceent

Cres

12B

Goldenridge Road

Rawlin

Benton

Crescent

12F

Finch Avenue

s cent

Wlut L

aa

nne

12E

Liow

ll Cr

ssc

ee

ent

t

Gloucester

12H 12G

Maple Ridge Drive

ig

oo

nn

SS

rrree

tt

tt

12C S01/0712D

Bushmill Street

a Road

rCanbroough

o12A

ch B

ooulev

aa

rrd

Antonio Street

N

q ur

d b B

oou

ll

ee

eva

rr

Gn

Memory Lane

R

l

Modlin Road

Third Concession Road

LD 109/19 toLge R

ooa

dd

LD 111/19 ValleyFarmRo

Sny Be

ch Ro

aa

ad

d

Allince Ro

aad

c



Neighbourhood 13 - Brock Ridge



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 13A infill based on servicing capacity (Duffins Precinct Dev. Guidelines) 127 13B infill based on servicing capacity (Duffins Precinct Dev. Guidelines) 26 13C infill based on servicing capacity (Duffins Precinct Dev. Guidelines) 27 13D redevelop based on 33% of land area X 75% of max. density 71 Total Units 251


Proposed Units


Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals S06/12 83 83 S15/11 13 13 CP2016-04( R) 59 59 SP2018-01 53 53 Developments 40M-2660 40 40 Vacant Lands (see Table 13.1) 251 251 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

248 0 0 251 499 2746


Total Future Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals S06/12 83 S15/11 13 13 CP2016-04( R) 59 59 SP2018-01 53 53 Developments 40M-2660 40 20 20 Vacant Lands (see Table 13.1) 251 60 60 60 Unit Increase 499 0 20 20 0 66 119 60 60


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Fores t Park Dr

Somergrove C

rescent

Va

C

lle

ry Farm

R

BridlePathCircle

Linwood Street

ve

i

Parkdale Street

e a

Ant

Poppy Lane

iRosef

S

Blue Ridg

e Cresce

nt

Bentley Lane

Middleton S

treet Dellbrook Av

Annan Woods D

rive

Pepperwood Gate

Major O

a

Chapman Court

ks Road

ount Stree

t

Denvale Drive

tre

a

Wi ldw ood

Crescent

Holl yhedge Drive

stc

he

mn

ot

re

Alpine Lane

oad

dwood Cre scent

li

Castle Hill Court

W

enue

Baggins Street

The od en Co ur

Denby Drive

Duberry Drive

awnberry

Four Seasons Lane

ng

iegate Cross

lCast

Clearside C

ourt

Conacher

Crescent

Southc ott R oad

CanterburyCrescent

Abbott

Crescent

Melm

T Ara

S tre t

Mc

rescent

Usman Road

Sunflower Road

Saffron Drive

een

lRay

Crescent Bluebird

Road

lRoya King

ston Roa

d

ve

idge Dr

inbr

iBa

FayleeCrescent

Liverp

l Roo

oad

onSqur

Everton Street

Memory Lane

eld Roa d

Lge R

ooa

dd


Greenm

40M2660

Finch Avenue

Meradoc Dr

iive

t Guil Roa

dd

Palmer's Sawmill Road

anSreet

t

Shay Drive

Beton W

aay

CC

Bhn

oou

rr

tt

rck R

ooad

e

13D

brady Crescent

Rossland Road W

13C

13B

Town of Ajax

S 6/12 SP2018-01

13A

S 15/CP 2016-04(R)

11

Ferncliff Circle

Bunsd D

rr

iiv

ee

Fieldlight Boulevard



Neighbourhood 14 - Rouge Park



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 14B-C vacant based on 75% area X 75% density 15 14E-F vacant based on 50% area X 75% density 47 14H vacant based on 75% area X 75% density 27 14I-J vacant based on 50% area X 75% density 25 Total Units 114


Proposed Units

Units Yet to build

Units Yet to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2019-01 41 41 SP2003-02 29 29 S02/18 27 27 SP2016-01 48 48 SP2018-02 109 109 Development 40M-2643 11 7 18 40M-2254 7 7 40M-2597 1 1 Vacant Lands (See Table 14.1) 1 255 256 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

213 19 8 255 495 859



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2019-01 41 20 21 SP2003-02 29 29 S02/18 27 10 17 SP2016-01 48 20 28 SP2018-02 109 25 84 Development 40M-2643 18 18 40M-2254 7 7 40M-2597 1 1 Vacant Lands (See Table 14.1) 256 1 2 58 57 20 50 50 50 Unit Increase 495 19 27 152 95 48 86 50 50


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Nature Haven Cr scent

Finch Avenue

Shadow Pl

Sandch

Copley Street

tePine Crescent

iWh

Bral

ew Avenue

iWoodv

Sandhurs

t Crescent

Mel dro n

on Chas e

d e

Summerpark Crescent

Garl

scent

Drive

st

Crescent

F Rouge

Woodsmere Crescent Pi vei

Moss

Square bro ok

ve

iRockwood Dr

Prohill Street

Oakburn Street

StroudsLane

ve

ve

i

ew Dr ive i

eyvi

ll

Lanc

rest Street Va

Calvington

Drive

Treetop Way

AutumnCrescen t

te Cedar Dr

e Dr

l

i ver Map

Wh liS

ne Grove Avenue

Waterford Gate

Wilcroft Court

Westcreek Dr

Sparrow Ci

rcle

a

oad

Mapleview Court

ood Trail

Mahogany Cour

Rougew

t

nbyCourt Pineview Lane

City of Toronto

T

oo

owl

ii

in

nn

ee

T

h P

cck

rr

rg

gSab

u

ee

ent

t Crs

cc

hik

Sdl

iin

ee 34

e 14J SP2018-02

14I 14E 40M-2086 14C

erry Court

Secord Street sce

ee

ent

idg Cr

Vally R

S02/orne Trail

14F

Stalli Chick a

West Lane

re o

40M2643

Hogarth Street rr

ii

vv

ee

e w D

Fost

Senator Street

14H

SP-2016-01 eCourt

18

Gra

ce

AltonaR

SP2003-02SP2019-01 40M-2597

14B

40M-2254

and Cre

Wdfllow

Drr

iiv

ee

Foxw

alk Drive

sebnk

RR

oo

aad



Neighbourhood 15 - Duffin Heights



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units 15A vacant based on 75% of land area X 75% max. low density 15 15B,C & E vacant based on 75% of land area X 75% max. medium density 325 15L, M, O vacant based on 75% of land area X 75% max. high density 880 Total Units 1220 Note: the areas and densities in the above table are taken from the Duffin Heights Tertiary Plan Note: 15E(144units) could be used for a community facility Note: Environmental servicing plan currently underway, preliminary results suggest a reduction in developable area and thus a reduction in population


Proposed Units

Units Yet to build

Units Yet to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals S02/19 141 141 A002/19 30 30 SP2014-01 97 97 S08/17 47 47 SP2017-02 585 585 A012/17 411 411 A013/17 178 178 S12/19 216 216 A014/18 35 35 Developments S09/15 104 104 40M-2639 50 143 193 40M-2568(phase 3&4) 513 513 Vacant Lands (see Table 15.1) 1355 1355 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

2253 50 247 1355 3905 5213



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals S02/19 141 70 71 A002/19 30 30 SP2014-01 97 20 77 S08/17 47 47 SP2017-02 585 300 285 A012/17 411 411 A013/17 178 50 128 S12/19 216 40 176 A014/18 35 10 25 Developments S09/15 104 104 40M-2639 193 25 75 40M-2568(phase 3&4) 513 40 110 40 323 Vacant Lands (see Table 15.1) 1355 100 100 200 400 500 Unit Increase 3734 176 75 80 396 235 1439 685 500


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


Calculations based on Development Application Status at December 31, 2019 Page 30

Windgr

S

Ceda r

Gossamer Drive

Burkholder Dr

Hibiscus Drive

ive Cactus Cr

escent

CErnecscha

Se

e

ennt

pi

e

a S qu art

ed

PeterMatthews Drive

nit n

F lor e

Pla

ce

C M Rigby Drive

Abbey Roa d

ove

Pebb

FieldstoneCircle

Cre scent

lestone Barnwood

c Square

Sideline 22

W

Blue Rid

ge

roo

Taunton Road

Fourth Concess

Br

u

Crescent

Bentley Lane

Dellb

Valley Farm Road

S omergrove

Major O

aks Road

Middleton

Street

k Av

Pepperwood Gate

cent

Greenmount St reet

Strathmore

C

DenvaleDrive

resce

Wi ldw

oodCresce nt

H

nt

dwood

liW

Bridle

Path

Circle

Linwood Street

Parkdale Street

DuberryDrive

enue

ol lyhedge Drive

Crescent

ion Road

sonsL

Dersan Street

anFe

our

ns

iBagg Street

Denby Dri ve

ive

eet

Clears ideCourt

g

Castle

Forbrock Street

William Jackson D

rive

Earl Gr e

y e

Cros sing

Crescen

d y

een

lRay

Square

Anton

Square

Rosefield Road

Finch Avenue

Lodge

Road

Cres

Conacher

Crescent

Sou thcott Road Abbo

Crescent Canterbury

Crescent

tt

ent

Usman

Road

S a ffron Drive

Sideline 16

Kingston

Road

ofC

rrsceen

tt

eadowlane rsce

ent

quare

Gloucester

Maple Ridge Drive

Bushmill Street

Liverp

l Roo

oad


Dusty Drive

Cdi

aaa

nn

Sree

tt

40M-2495 ny

inville Road

Lane Drive

Avenue

Scenic

15E

Cres

15M

Zents Drive

A2/SP-2014-01

ShayDr

/40M2639

SP2017-02

S2 19

Mcbra

Tillings Road

Madoc D

rr

iiv

ee

Sea

/

Be

et

ton

n W

aa

ay

Mlm

Sr

15L

19 t

A12

ate

A13/17 40M-2479

A1440M-2568

S08

S 09Br

ck R

ooad

17

15C

/18 Avenu

/17 S12/19

Liatris Drive

Parkhurst Crescent

Misthollow Drive /15

15O

Canborough Crescent

c

Rossland Road W R

sd D

rr

ii

iv

ve

ee

Town of Ajax

15B

15A

Town of Ajax



Neighbourhood 16 - Lamoreaux



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units vacant based on Provincially approved Central Pickering Development Plan

Total Units 0

Note: Forecasted Incremental growth is based on Staged servicing Implementation strategy by landowners consultant (October 18, 2012)


Proposed Units

Units Yet Units Yet to build to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2008-05 481 481 SP2008-06 1553 1553 SP2008-07 692 692 SP2008-11 1096 1096 SP2009-13 (phase 4+) 348 348 SP2009-14 133 133 SP2015-06 ** 48 48 Developments 40M-2625 197 221 418 40M-2631 92 122 214 40M-2632 131 120 251 40M-2646 92 92 Vacant Lands (see Table 16.1) 0 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

4351 0 0 0 5326 5570



2030- 2035-2034 2039

Proposals SP2008-05 481 200 200 81 SP2008-06 1553 201 200 200 63 890 SP2008-07 692 200 100 100 292 SP2008-11 1096 250 250 300 296 SP2009-13 (phase 4+) 348 75 100 173 SP2009-14 133 100 33 SP2015-06 ** 48 48 Developments 40M-2625 418 150 150 118 40M-2631 214 100 114 40M-2632 251 150 101 40M-2646 92 92 Vacant Lands (see Table 16.1) 0 Unit Increase 5326 492 1141 1001 804 655 1234 0 0


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


** This plan of subdivision is split between neighbourhood 16 and 18 - 48 units will be part of the Lamoureaux Neighbourhood and the remaining 221 will be in the Mount Pleasant Neighbourhood


Dix

ieR

oad

Side

line

24

i ne

2 6

lS i

de

Side

l i ne

22

Taunton Road

Hol

low

Oak

Whi

tes

Roa

d

nlight

Ref

lect

ion

Moo

Mew

s

cent

Cre

s

ragonfly Avenue

ve

court Street Foxtail Crescent

ier

Dr

Bel

Cameo Street lB

urkh

oSapphire

Drive

rest

ream

Tra

il

Orenda

Street e u nt

nTigerlily

usCr

esc

eeva A

Trail eo laF zA

tcaCe e v vir irD

s D

us

tthewc t ns ecib sei aH r

r MdCEnc eh e eta n t P

SepiaSF ql uo ar re e ntine Place

Whitevale Road

Fipr

rtR

oo

aad

SP-2008-11

SP-2008-11 SP-2008-11 SP-2008-05

SP-2008-11 SP-2008-05 d

SP-2009-13 Place

D

Withes

Ro a

d

SP-2015-06 SP-2008-06

SP-2008-05

SP-2008-06 SP-2008-07

SP-2008-07 SP-2015-06 SP-2009-13

SP-2008-06 40M2646 SP-2008-07 SP-2009-14

40M2632

SP-2008-07 40M2632 SP-2009-14

40M2625 40M2631

Third Concession Road Third Concession Road





Neighbourhood 17 - Brock-Taunton




Total Units 0


Proposed Units


Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2015-04 1896 1896 Total Unit Increase 1896 0 0 0 1896 Total Forecasted Units 1909



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2015-04 1896 500 500 500 Unit Increase 1896 0 0 0 0 0 500 500 500


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Penn

yLa

ne

SP-2015-04

SP-2015-04

SP-2015-04

SP-2015-04

SP-2015-04

SP-2015-04

William Jackson Drive

Can

adi a

nS t

ree t

Bro

ck R

oad

Cas

t lega

te C

ross

ing

Pur

e

S pringsB

oulevard

Jack

pine

C

ross

ing

Carousel Drive Dusty Drive

Bruny Avenue

Winville Road

Edgecroft Drive

Elmsley Drive

Scenic Lane Drive

Tillin

gs R

oad

Misthollow Drive

Teak

Mew

s

Liatris Drive

Rex Heath Drive

Fifth Concession Road

Stockell Crescent

Whitevale Road

Four

Se a

son s

La n

e E

a rl Grey

Avenue

Side

line

16

Dersan Street

Starboard

Mews

Parkhurst Crescent

Zents Drive

Forbrock Street

Taunton Road

Fourth Concession Road

Mul

berry

La n

e


Information Current To Dec. 2019 © The Corporation of the City of Pickering Produced (in part) under license from: © Queens Printer, Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. All rights reserved.;

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of Natural Resources. All rights reserved.; © Teranet Enterprises Inc. and its suppliers all rights reserved.;© Municipal Property Assessment Corporation and its suppliers all Rights reserved.; THIS IS NOT A PLAN OF SURVEY.

Tow

n of

Aja

x

Tow

n of

Aja

x

Vacant Land For Residential Development Neighbourhood 17


Neighbourhood 18 - Mount Pleasant




Total Units 0

Note: The draft plans of subdivision are currently before the Ontario Municipal Board



Proposed Units

Units Yet Units Yet to build to Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2009-01 766 766 SP2009-02 4593 4593 SP2009-05 782 782 SP2009-06 828 828 SP2009-07 349 349 SP2009-08 472 472 SP2015-06 ** 221 221 Vacant Lands (See Table 18.1) 0 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

8011 0 0 0 8011 8027



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2009-01 766 766 SP2009-02 4593 240 960 1695 1698 SP2009-05 782 261 261 260 SP2009-06 828 414 414 SP2009-07 349 250 100 SP2009-08 472 250 222 SP2015-06 ** 221 221 Vacant Lands (See Table 18.1) 0 Unit Increase 8011 0 0 250 361 751 1856 3096 1698


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039


** This plan of subdivision is split between neighbourhood 16 and 18 - 48 units will be part of the Lamoureaux Neighbourhood and the remaining 221 will be in the Mount Pleasant Neighbourhood


Nor th R

oad

Nor

thR

oad

Side

line

2 4

Churchwin Street

Whiteva e Road l

Side

line

24

ub R

oad

lG

olf C

Alto

na R

oad

Side

li ne

26

Fourth Concession Road Fall aH rvest

Whi

tes

Roa

d Crescent

oad n R

otnuaT Dragonfly Avenue

lcourt StreFoxtail Cresce n t

Be

Cameo Street

Sapph

Burkholire D

rive

Skyridge

Boulevard

der Drive

stre

amTr

ail

e ure n

Rosebank

R

eFo vAzalea AW

hites e virs

DcusiFlorentine

P

biH

e r au

aS

ql Sa ep ice

Highway 7

Road

SP-2015-06

SP-2015-06 SP-2015-06

oad

Highway 407

SP-2015-06 SP-2009-08

SP-2009-05 SP-2009-05

SP-2015-06

SP-2009-01 SP-2009-01 SP-2015-06 Whitevale

SP-2015-06 SP-2015-06 SP-2015-06

SP-2009-06

SP-2009-06 SP-2009-06 SP-2009-02

SP-2009-07

SP-2009-02

et





Neighbourhood 19 - Wilson Meadows




Total Units 0

Note: The draft plans of subdivision are currently before the Ontario Municipal Board



Proposed Units


Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2008-12 1100 1100 SP2009-03 478 478 SP2009-04 38 38 SP2009-09 195 195 SP2009-11 998 998 SP2009-12 441 441 SP2015-05*** 418 418 Vacant Lands (See Table 19.1) 0 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

3668 0 0 0 3668 3682



2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2008-12 1100 150 700 250 SP2009-03 478 478 SP2009-04 38 38 SP2009-09 195 195 SP2009-11 998 200 300 200 298 SP2009-12 441 200 150 91 SP2015-05*** 418 184 183 183 Vacant Lands (See Table 19.1) 0 Unit Increase 3668 0 200 500 350 539 884 1144 183


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Donnalea A

venue

Side

line

22

Cou

ntry

Lan

e

Side

line

24

Side line 20

Mu l

berry

Lan

e

S ide

line

24

Side

l ine

22

Fourth Concession Road

Sapp

hire

Driv

e

Harvest Cresce

Fall

v e

Hol

low

Oak

Ref

lect

io

ide

r Dr

Mew

s

Elm

cree

k ht C

Mew

s

Moo

nlig rescent

lBu

rkh ot

Dragonfly Avenue

Brougham

Highway 407

SP-2015-05 SP-2015-05

SP-2009-11(R) SP-2009-09 SP-2009-03

SP-2009-11(R) SP-2009-03 SP-2009-04

SP-2009-11(R)

SP-2008-12

Whitevale Road

SP-2009-11

SP-2008-12

SP-2009-12

SP-2015-05

SP-2009-12

Taunton Road

n Place

n





Neighbourhood 20 - Thompson's Corners



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units vacant based on Provincially approved Central Pickering Development Pla 0

Total Units 0


Proposed Units Yet Units Yet Units to build to

Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Proposals SP2015-03 2167 2167 Total Unit Increase 2167 0 0 0 2167 Total Forecasted Units 2180



2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals SP2015-03 2167 100 300 300 400 583 584 Unit Increase 2167 0 0 100 300 300 400 583 584


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



ne 2

0 il

dei S

Mow

bray

Stre

et

Highway 7

Stre

et nnalea Avenue

7 0y 4g awhgiH

Cou

ntry

Lan

e

ne 2

2 il

de i S

Highway 407

Highway

d aok R

corB

sa S

torry

Ave

nue

ine

16

lde il SE

Mu l

berry

La n

e

Side

line

16

Side

l i ne

22

SP-2015-03

SP-2015-03

Sd

li

ine

e16

SP-2015-03

SP-2015-03 SP-2015-03 SP-2015-03

Whitevale Road Fifth Concession Road

SP-2015-03

Sprin

oD

ugm

Ro

oa

ad

Brh

SP-2015-03

SP-2015-03 SP-2015-03

Brougham

SP-2015-03

407

SP-2015-03

SP-2015-03

Tow

n of

Aja

x SP-2015-03 SP-2015-03

Sd

li

ine

e22





Neighbourhood 21 - Innovation Corridor


This neighbourhood is designated in the Pickering Official Plan for employment uses and has no residential units. As such this neighbourhood has no bearing on this product at this time. However, we anticipate adding an employment component to this product in the future, so the intent is that page be retained as a place holder for that future component.


NorthRoad

Sidel ine24

Highway 7

North Road

Highway 407

Country Lane

Sideline 22 N

orth Road

Sideline 34

Sideline26

Sideline32

Sideline28

Sideline22

Green River

Vacant Land For Residential Development City Development Neighbourhood 21 Department Information Current



Claremont and Area



Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units infill 6

Total Units 6


Proposed Units Units Potential Total Units Yet to Yet to Vacant Future

build Occupy Lots Units Proposals 18T-90016(R ) 27 27 Development Vacant Lands (see Table 22.1) 5 1 6 Total Unit Increase 5 0 1 0 33 Total Forecasted Units 405


Total Future 2025- 2030- 2035-Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2029 2034 2039

Proposals 18T-90016(R ) 27 5 5 5 Development Vacant Lands (see Table 22.1) 6 1 4 Unit Increase 33 1 0 0 0 0 5 5 9


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



oD

rive

dge PiUxbrne Townli

Bro

ck R

oad

Broc

kRo

ad

Hoxton Street

Broc

kRo

ad

Broc

kRo

ad

ne 1

6 il

deTom iSThomson Court t eam

Stre

xson

Stre

e t

B roc

k R

oad illi

W

iW

Joseph Street

Fr

Central Street on Road nth ConcessiNi

Cans

Broc

k R

oad

pent

erCo

urt

ngst

on S

tr eet

raC

d aAcorn Lane oRiLi

v

kc

ak Street orBiKod

d aoBr

ock

R


akl

in

nS

r ee

tt

ickering Uxbridge Pickering Uxbridge Pickering Uxbridge Pickering Road Townline Road Townline Road Townline Road

Claremont 18T-90016(R)


Sd

li

ine

e20

SS

dd

li

ine

e20

l

iin

ee

20


© The Corporation of the City of Pickering Produced (in part) under license from: © Queens Printer, Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. All rights reserved.; © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of Natural Resources. All rights reserved.; © Teranet Enterprises Inc. and its suppliers all rights reserved.;© Municipal Property Assessment Corporation and its suppliers all Rights reserved.; THIS IS NOT A PLAN OF SURVEY.

Vacant Land For Residential Development Claremont

Information Current To Dec. 2019


Greenwood, Kinsale & Estate Residential Clusters


Table 23.1 - Existing residential units & population

Existing Existing Units Population

Barclay 33 98 Birchwood 2 6 Forest Creek 0 0 Greenwood 106 315 Kinsale 32 95 Staxton Glen 38 113


Section # Type assumptions made in determining # of units # of Units Barclay 0 Birchwood 0 Forest Creek 0 Greenwood 0 Kinsale infill potential creation based on surrounding characteristics 12

vacant lots yet to be built on 6 Staxton Glen 0 Total Units 18


Proposed Units

Units Yet Units Yet to to Build Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Lots

Proposals 18T87096 10 10 18T86013R 14 14 SP2001-04 13 13 Developments 40M-2302 1 1 2 40M-2382 1 1 Vacant Lands (See Table 23.2) 4 1 13 18 Total Unit Increase Total Forecasted Units

37 5 3 13 58 269

Table 23.4 - Forecasted Incremental Growth


2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Proposals 18T87096 10 18T86013R 14 3 3 3 3 2 SP2001-04 13 13 Developments 40M-2302 2 1 1 40M-2382 1 1 Vacant Lands (See Table 23.2) 18 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 Total Unit Increase 58 2 5 8 5 17 3 1 1


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



Highway 407

Sideli ne 14

Paddo

Highway 7

Sixth Concession Road

Westney Road

GreenwoodRoad

Sid el ine 8

Greenburn

em Road

Hollywood Court

lSa ne 4

iSidel

Audley Road

Highway 407

ck Road Kinsale

Greenwood

Kinsale Road

SP-2001-04 BarclayEstates

BirchwoodEstates ForestStaxton CreekGlen Estates Fifth Concession Road

Place

Lake Ridge Road

40M-2302

18T-86013R 40M-2382 18T87096

Fifth Concession Road

Vacant Land For Residential Development City DevelopmentDepartment Estate Clusters Information Current



Remaining Rural Area



Existing Units

Existing Pop.

Units Yet Proposed Units Yet to

Units to Build Occupy

Potential Vacant

Lots

Total Future Units

Cherrywood & area (Infill lands) 112 333 9 9 Whitevale (Infill lands) 74 220 11 11 Green River (Infill lands) 36 107 11 11 Brougham (Infill lands) 34 101 26 26 Balsam (Infill lands) 14 42 3 3 Spring Creek

9 27 0 0 Altona (Infill lands) 2 6 10 10 Agricultural Assembly

57 169 0 0 Federal Ownership

270 802 0 0 Other Rural lands (Infill lands) 246 731 2 161 163 Total Unit Increase Total Existing Totals Total Forecasted Units

0 0 2 231 233 854 2536

1087

Table 24.2 - Forecasted Incremental Growth


2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Cherrywood & area (Infill lands) 9 1 1 1 Whitevale (Infill lands) 11 1 1 1 1 1 Green River (Infill lands) 11 1 1 1 1 Brougham (Infill lands) 26 Balsam (Infill lands) 3 1 1 Spring Creek

0 Altona (Infill lands) 10 1 1 Agricultural Assembly

0 Federal Ownership

0 Other Rural lands (Infill lands) 163 0 2 5 5 5 25 25 25 Total Unit Increase 233 0 2 5 6 8 28 30 29


2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039



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Vacant Land For Residential Development Rural System

Information Current © The Corporation of the City of Pickering Produced (in part) under license from: © Queens Printer, Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. All rights reserved.; © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, Department of Natural Resources. All rights reserved.; © Teranet Enterprises Inc. and its suppliers all rights reserved.;© Municipal Property Assessment Corporation and its suppliers all Rights reserved.; THIS IS NOT A PLAN OF SURVEY. To Dec. 2019

The City of Pickering 20 Year Population Projections

Unit Summary

Table 25.1 - Total Cumulative Units Forecasted for Urban Pickering

Neighbourhoods Existing Units

Proposed Additional

Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

1-Rosebank 969 242 1097 1118 1142 1160 1165 1185 1205 1218 2-West Shore 2371 32 2372 2372 2372 2399 2399 2399 2399 2399 3-Bay Ridges 3505 929 3810 3812 3814 3816 3818 3819 3819 3819 4-Brock Industrial 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-Rougemount 1047 707 1048 1071 1072 1074 1102 1278 1406 1534 6-Woodlands 877 4590 927 973 1155 1155 1155 1753 2253 2803 7-Dunbarton 925 834 926 942 949 954 959 984 1009 1034 8-City Centre 2265 7903 2266 2559 2890 3120 3651 5924 7235 7735 9-Village East 1871 3001 1871 1873 1884 1916 2074 2450 2630 2895 10-Highbush 2082 160 2105 2135 2157 2179 2199 2222 2242 2252 11-Amberlea 4442 172 4444 4447 4450 4453 4456 4459 4462 4464 12-Liverpool 6012 1674 6012 6016 6016 6016 6046 6076 6106 6136 13-Brock Ridge 2247 499 2247 2267 2287 2287 2353 2472 2532 2592 14-Rouge Park 364 495 383 410 562 657 705 791 841 891 15-Duffin Heights 1308 3734 1484 1559 1639 2035 2270 3709 4394 4894 South Urban Total 30289 24972 30996 31558 32393 33225 34356 39525 42537 44670

Table 25.2 - Total Cumulative Units Forecasted for Seaton Neighbourhoods

Neighbourhoods Existing Units

Proposed Additional

Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

16-Lamoreaux 244 5326 736 1877 2878 3682 4337 5571 5571 5571 17-Brock - Taunton 13 1896 13 13 13 13 13 513 1013 1513 18-Mount Pleasant 16 8011 16 16 266 627 1378 3234 6330 8028 19-Wilson Meadows 14 3668 14 214 714 1064 1603 2487 3631 3814 20-Thompson's Corners 13 2167 15 15 115 415 715 1115 1698 2282 21-Innovation Corridor 11 0 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Seaton Lands Total 311 21068 805 2146 3997 5812 8057 12931 18254 21219

Table 25.3 - Total Cumulative Units Forecasted for Rural Pickering

Hamlets & Clusters Existing Units

Proposed Additional

Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

Claremont & Area 372 33 373 373 373 373 373 378 383 392 Greenwood, Kinsale & Estate Clusters 211 58 213 218 226 231 248 251 252 253 Remaining Rural 854 233 854 856 861 867 875 903 933 962 Rural Total 1437 324 1440 1447 1460 1471 1496 1532 1568 1607

Table 25.4 - Total Cumulative Units Forecasted for Pickering

All of Pickering Existing Units

Proposed Additional

Units 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

South Urban Totals 30289 24972 30996 31558 32393 33225 34356 39525 42537 44670 Seaton Lands Totals 311 21068 805 2146 3997 5812 8057 12931 18254 21219 Total Urban 30600 46040 31801 33704 36390 39037 42413 52456 60791 65889 Rural Totals 1437 324 1440 1447 1460 1471 1496 1532 1568 1607 Entire City Total 32037 46364 33241 35151 37850 40508 43909 53988 62359 67496



Population Summary

Table 26.1 - Total Cumulative Population Forecasted for Urban Pickering

Neighbourhoods 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034 2035-2039

1-Rosebank 2878 3258 3265 3335 3387 3402 3413 692 3423 2-West Shore 7042 7045 6926 6926 7005 7005 6909 6770 6741 3-Bay Ridges 10410 11316 11131 11137 11143 11149 10999 10777 10731 4-Brock Industrial 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 5-Rougemount 3110 3113 3127 3130 3136 3218 3570 3826 4082 6-Woodlands 2605 2753 2841 3373 3373 3373 4655 5655 6795 7-Dunbarton 2747 2750 2751 2771 2786 2800 2834 2847 2906 8-City Centre 4077 4079 4606 5202 5616 6572 10663 13023 13923 9-Village East 5557 5557 5469 5501 5595 6056 7025 7527 8265 10-Highbush 6184 6252 6234 6298 6363 6421 6399 6327 6328 11-Amberlea 13193 13199 12985 12994 13003 13012 12842 12592 12812 12-Liverpool 17856 17856 17567 17567 17567 17654 17499 17231 17242 13-Brock Ridge 6674 6674 6620 6678 6678 6871 7119 7145 7284 14-Rouge Park 1081 1138 1197 1669 1918 2059 2278 2373 2504 15-Duffin Heights 3885 4407 4552 4786 5942 6628 10682 12400 13752 South Urban Total 87308 89407 89283 91379 93523 96231 106898 109197 116799

Table 26.2 - Total Cumulative Population Forecasted for Seaton Neighbourhoods

Neighbourhoods 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034 2035-2039

16-Lamoreaux 725 2186 5481 8404 10751 12664 16044 15721 15655 17-Brock - Taunton 39 39 38 38 38 38 1477 2859 4252 18-Mount Pleasant 48 48 47 777 1831 4024 9314 17863 22559 19-Wilson Meadows 42 42 625 2085 3107 4681 7163 10247 10717 20-Thompson's Corners 39 45 44 336 1212 2088 3211 4792 6412 21-Innovation Corridor 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 Seaton Lands Total 924 2391 6267 11672 16972 23527 37242 51514 59627

Table 26.3 - Total Cumulative Population Forecasted for Rural Pickering

Hamlets & Clusters 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034 2035-2039

Claremont & Area 1105 1108 1089 1089 1089 1089 1089 1081 1102 Greenwood, Kinsale & Estate Clusters 627 633 637 660 675 724 723 711 711 Remaining Rural 2536 2536 2500 2514 2532 2555 2601 2633 2703 Rural Total 4268 4277 4225 4263 4295 4368 4412 4425 4516

Table 26.4 - Total Cumulative Population Forecasted for Pickering

All of Pickering 2019 Actual 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2025-2029

2030-2034 2035-2039

South Urban Totals 87308 89407 89283 91379 93523 96231 106898 109197 116799 Seaton Lands Totals 924 2391 6267 11672 16972 23527 37242 51514 59627 Total Urban 88232 91798 95550 103051 110494 119758 144141 160712 176427 Rural Totals 4268 4277 4225 4263 4295 4368 4412 4425 4516 Entire City Total 92500 96075 99776 107314 114790 124126 148553 165136 180942

Calculations based on Development Application Status at December 31, 2019 Page 51

The City of Pickering 20 Year Population Forecasts

Methods and Assumptions: 1. This publication is a detailed breakdown of forecasted population increases for the City of Pickering. Neighbourhoods

used in this publication are based on the Pickering Official Plan Urban Neighbourhood and Rural Settlement boundaries. 2. Proposals are those active residential development applications received by December 31, 2019. Calculations are

based on numbers supplied by the applicant’s proposal. This is not to imply that the proposal will be draft approved or registered.

3. Vacant land/potential future development was calculated based on density from the Pickering Official Plan and the existing characteristics of the urban neighbourhood or rural settlement. Redevelopment of the City Centre Neighbourhood was based on data from the report, “Downtown Pickering, A Vision for Intensification and Framework for Investment, June 2013”.

4. Forecasted development build out was based on professional opinion and development trends for the area. 5. Forecasted infill and future development blocks in the ‘UNITS’ tables are based on the ‘VACANT LANDS’ tables. 6. Only registered accessory dwelling units are included in this publication. It is possible that there are several

unregistered units that could have an effect on the population in a given area of Pickering. 7. The 2019 Actual Column on each page represents the following:

• The total units calculated based on new building permits granted occupancy from May 2016 to the end of December 2019 added to the numbers of units in the 2016 Census report for Pickering from Statistics Canada, and

• The total population calculated based on the population in the 2016 Census report for Pickering from Statistics Canada plus a 4% undercount assumed by the Region of Durham plus the total number of new building permits granted occupancy multiplied by 2.97, the 2016 person per unit count for Pickering from the 2016 Census report from Statistics Canada.

8. This publication does not project an ultimate future population but rather forecasts population based on active residential land development proposals, and vacant readily developable residential lands. The method to forecast population does not generally include possible redevelopment of lands currently used for other uses such as commercial plazas or the intensification of sites that are already developed. Population and unit forecasts for the City Centre are based on the report, “Downtown Pickering, A Vision for Intensification and Framework for Investment, June 2013”, and the following: • a development density of 200 residents and jobs combined per hectare (source: Urban Growth Centre, Growth

Plan), and • a minimum growth target of 8,300 people and 8,700 jobs by 2031, based on a resident/job ratio of 1:1 • an average dwelling unit density of 1.8 ppu • an average dwelling unit size of 100m2

• All infrastructure improvements necessary to support growth have been provided 9. The population for Pickering with the exception of the City Centre is calculated by multiplying the number of units by the

following: • 2.97 persons per unit for the period of 2016 to 2020 (Statistics Canada Census 2016), • 2.92 persons per unit for the period of 2021 to 2025 (Table B-6, Growing Durham Appendices), • 2.87 persons per unit for the period of 2026 to 2030 (Table B-6, Growing Durham Appendices), and • 2.81 persons per unit for the year 2031 and later (Table B-6, Growing Durham Appendices).

The population for the City Centre is calculated by multiplying the number of units by 1.8 persons per unit for the period of 2015 to 2035 for the City Centre. This person per unit ratio specific to the City Centre is derived from the City Centre Official Plan Amendment 26 - Downtown Intensification Study.

10.Population and unit forecasts for areas along the Kingston Road Corridor within Neighbourhoods 5, 6, 7, 9 and 12 are based on the report, “Kington Road Corridor Intensification Study” and the following:

• Low Density would yield 85% net to gross efficiency average net unit size 102 sqm and 3 people per unit • Medium Density would yield 85% net to gross efficiency average net unit size 81 sqm and 2 people per unit • Medium-High Density would yield 85% net to gross efficiency average net unit size 81 sqm and 2 people per unit • High Density would yield 94% net to gross efficiency average net unit size 81 sqm and 2 people per unit

11.The Other Rural Lands within the Remaining Rural tables on page 48 include the lands within the Federal ownership and the provincial ownership.

12.Although the Durham Regional Official Plan provides for a 2031 population of 225,670 persons for the City of Pickering, the achievement of this population target would require an expansion of the current urban area boundary and an assessment of: • The amount and rate of development that has occurred in Seaton Community and, • The preparation and completion of a watershed plan update for the East Duffins and Carruthers Creek

Watersheds. 13. Symbols on the maps:

• A solid triangle represents a place of worship, CEM represents cemeteries; a solid tree within a hollow rectangle represents a park; a rectangle with a flag, if solid represents a public elementary school, if hollow represents a separate elementary school; a rectangle with 3 flags, if solid represents a public secondary school, if hollow represents a separate secondary school; the image of two people swimming represents municipal swimming pools; RC represents a municipal recreation complex, L represents municipal libraries, C represents a municipal community centre, C/L represents the Pickering Civic Complex & Central Library.

If you have questions, comments, or suggestions about this publication, please contact the City of Pickering, City Development Department at (905) 420-4617 or email [email protected] .


mailto:[email protected]

20 year population forcast - pickering · population growth 2020 - 2039. 36% 28% 19% 18% 7% 6% 4%...

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