20012002200320042005 year 0 10 20 30 40 50 millions number of people living with hiv estimated...

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50M

illi

on

s

Number of people living with HIV

Estimated number of people living with HIV, 2001–2005

AIDS epidemic update, December 2005. Fig 1

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Projected new adult infections and total adult deaths

in sub-Saharan Africa, in millions, by the year 2020:

Impact of three scenarios compared to baseline

Source: Salomon JA. et al, Integrating HIV Prevention and Treatment: From Slogans to Impact. PLoS Medicine. January 2005, Vol 2, Issue 1.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Year

Mill

ions

New HIV infections

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

YearM

illio

ns

AIDS deaths

Treatment-centered

Prevention-centered

Baseline

Comprehensive response


HIV prevalence among 15–24 year-old men and women, selected countries in sub-Saharan

Africa, 2001–2005

Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys. ORC Macro (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, United Republic of Tanzania, Cameroon, Lesotho, Kenya, Zambia); Department of Health, Uganda HIV/AIDS sero-behavioural survey 2004/2005 (Uganda); Ministry of Health and Child Welfare, Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council, National AIDS Council , and CDC, The Zimbabwe Young Adult Survey 2001-2002 (Zimbabwe); Pettifor AE, et al. HIV and sexual behaviour among young South African: a national survey of 15-24 year olds (South Africa).

0

5

10

15

20

Gha

na 2

003

Bur

kina

Fas

o 20

03

Mal

i 200

1

Tanza

nia

2003

Camer

oon

2004

Uga

nda

2004

/05

Ken

ya 2

003

Zam

bia

2002

Sout

h Afr

ica

2002

Leso

tho

2004

Zim

babw

e 20

01/0

2

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce


Women Men

Percentage of young people aged 15–24 years who correctly identified major ways

of preventing the sexual transmission of HIV*, 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

%

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys. ORC Macro (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique and Nigeria); Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey 2003-04, TACAIDS, NBS, and ORC Macro (UR Tanzania).

*Using condoms and limiting sex to one faithful, uninfected partner, who reject the two most common local misconceptions about HIV transmission, and who know that a healthy looking person can transmit HIV.

Burkina Faso Cameroon Ghana Kenya MadagascarMozambique Nigeria UR Tanzania


Female Male

Sources: Ministry of Health (Mozambique); Department of Health (South Africa); Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (Zimbabwe); Ministry of Health (Kenya); Ministry of Health (United Republic of Tanzania); Ghana Health Service (Ghana); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - GAP - Côte d'Ivoire (Côte d'Ivoire); Conseil National de Lutte Contre le SIDA (Senegal); Adapted from Asamoah-Odei, et al. HIV prevalence and trends in sub-Saharan Africa: no decline and large subregional differences. Lancet, 2004 (Botswana, Ethiopia, Uganda and Nigeria).

HIV prevalence in pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in sub-Saharan

Africa, 1997/98–2004

0

10

20

30

40

1997-1998 1999-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% H

IV p

reva

lenc

e

0

10

20

30

40

1997-1998 1999-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% H

IV p

reva

lenc

e

West Africa

GhanaSenegal

Cote d'IvoireNigeria

0

10

20

30

40

1997-1998 1999-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% H

IV p

reva

lenc

e

Southern Africa

Zimbabwe

Mozambique

South Africa*

UR Tanzania

Eastern Africa

Ethiopia

Uganda Kenya

*data by province


Botswana

Sources: National HIV and Syphilis Antenatal Sero-Prevalence Survey in South Africa 2004 (South Africa); 2004 ANC Draft Report (Zimbabwe).

HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in South Africa

and Zimbabwe, by age group, 2000–2004

South Africa

Zimbabwe

<2020 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940+

Age group

15 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 44

Age group

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce


Distribution of male and female deaths by age group in South Africa, 1997 and

2002

Source: Statistics South Africa, 2005

Age group

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0 – 4

5 – 9

10 –

14

15 –

19

20 –

24

25 –

29

30 –

35

36 –

39

40 –

44

45 –

49

50 –

54

55 –

59

60 –

64

65 –

69

70 –

74

75 –

79

80 –

85

85 –

89

90+

No.

of

death

s*

*all causes

1997 Male 1997 Female

2002 Male 2002 Female


Trend in HIV prevalence in selected sitesin each province in Mozambique, 2000–2004

Source: Ministry of Health, Report on the Update of the HIV Epidemiological Surveillance Data - 2004 Round

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce

C.S. Ponta-Gea

C.S. 24 de Julho

H.R. Cuamba

H.R. Montepuez

C.S. 25 Setembro

C.S. Maxixe

C.S. Xai-Xai

C.S. 10 de Junho

H.R. Catandica

C.S. E. Mondlane

C.S. No. 3 (Tete)

North CentreSouth


Data from select antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance sites with a declining

trend in HIV prevalence, Kenya 1997–2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce

Source: Ministry of Health - National AIDS/STD Control Programme (NASCOP), HIV Sentinel Surveillance 2004

Busia Kitui

Nairobi Thika

Meru Nyeri

Garissa


Modes of transmission for HIV among HIV/AIDS cases,

China (2003 estimates)

Injecting drug users 43.9%

Heterosexual transmission 19.8%

Men having sex with men 11.1%

Mother-to-child transmission 19.8%

Blood and blood products 0.6%

Former commercial blood and plasma donation 24.1%

Source: State Council AIDS Working Committee & UN Theme Group (2004)


Projected impact* of injecting drug use on number of HIV infections in Jakarta,

IndonesiaCumulative number of HIV infections

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

Source: MAP Report 2005. Drug Injection and HIV/AIDS in Asia

Sexual infections resulting from a chain of infection originating with IDU

HIV infections if nothing changes

HIV infections in IDUs if nothing changes

HIV infections if there were no IDU epidemic

110,000

36,000

2,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

* assuming no interventions


Percentage of street-based sex workers who inject drugs,

who have sex with injectors, and percentage of male injectors who report buying sex, three cities, Viet

Nam 2000

Source: MAP Reportt 2005. Sex work and HIV/AIDS in Asia.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Hanoi

Haiphong

Ho Chi Minh City

Percent

Sex worker injects drugs herself

Sex worker reports sex with male drug injector

Male injector reports buying sex from sex worker


Percentage of male injecting drug users who buy sex –

report of consistent condom use during commercial sex,

various cities

* Sichuan : condom use at last commercial sex** Bangkok : includes non-injecting drug users

Source: MAP Report 2005. Sex work and HIV/AIDS in Asia.

Unprotected commercial sexBought sex with a condom

Central Bangladesh

Sichuan, China*

Delhi, India

Surabaya, Indonesia

Katmandhu Valley, Nepal

Bangkok, Thailand**

Hanoi, Vietnam

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent


HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending antenatal care clinics, Thailand

1990–2004

Source: Thailand Ministry of Public Health, Department of Disease Control, Bureau of Epidemiology

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Year

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce

Bangkok

Central

North

Northeast

South


Source: Department of Health, AIDS Prevention and Control Project

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Year

% H

IV P

reva

len

ce

ANC Blood donors Military recruits

HIV prevalence among sentinel surveillance groups, Myanmar 1992–2003


Nu

mb

er

of

reg

iste

red

H

IV c

ase

s

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10 000

12 000

1987-1994

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Newly registered HIV cases

Children born to HIV-positive mothers

Annual number of newly registered HIV cases and children born HIV-seropositive, Ukraine 1987–2004

Source: Ukrainian AIDS Centre

2004

14 000


HIV prevalence at consistent selected antenatal clinic surveillance sites, Haiti 1993–2004

Source: Ministére de la Santé Publique et de la Population, Analyse secondaire des études de sero surveillance par méthode sentinelle de la prévalence du VIH chez les femmes enceintes en Haϊti entre 1993 et 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1993 1996 2000 2004

Year

% H

IV p

reva

len

ce

All women Urban women Semi-urban, rural women


Reported number of HIV and AIDS cases, Cuba 1986–2003*

Source: Caribbean Technical Expert Group (2004). Strengthening the Caribbean regional response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic: Report of the Caribbean Technical Expert Group on HIV Prevention and Gender. Draft working document. October. Jamaica

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

198619871988 198919901991199219931994 199519961997199819992000 200120022003

Year

Number of Cases

*Extrapolations from reported cumulative number of cases as of end 2003 for the years 2002 & 2003 and years with no report

HIV Cases AIDS Cases


Comparison of AIDS-related hospitalizations to Comparison of AIDS-related hospitalizations to number of patients on ARV therapy, Brazil 1998number of patients on ARV therapy, Brazil 1998–2004–2004

Source: DATASUS, SIH; National STD/AIDS Program

Hospitalization rateper year per patienton ARV therapy

Number of AIDS hospitalization and number of patients on ARV therapy

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Hospitalized HIV patients

Patients on ARV therapy

Rate of hospitalization of patients on ARV treatment

Year


Note: adjusted for reporting delays

Estimated number of annual AIDS cases, annual AIDS deaths, and persons living with AIDS,

United States of America 1985–2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year of diagnosis or death

Number of AIDS cases and deaths (in thousands)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Number of persons living with AIDS (in thousands)

AIDS cases

AIDS deaths

Persons living with AIDS

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention


20012002200320042005 year 0 10 20 30 40 50 millions number of people living with hiv estimated...

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