2002.07 krueger & maleckova education, poverty, political violence & terrorism

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

EDUCATION, POVERTY, POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM:IS THERE A CAUSAL CONNECTION?

Alan B. KruegerJitka Maleckova

Working Paper 9074http://www.nber.org/papers/w9074

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138July 2002

We thank Claude Berrebi for excellent research assistance, Eli Hurvitz, Ayoub Mustafa, Adib Nehmeh andZeina el Khalil for providing data, and Joshua Angrist, Fran Blau, Mia Bloom, Yinon Cohen, Jed Devaro,Guido Imbens, Christina Paxson, Jessica Stern and Elie Tamer for helpful discussions and comments. Theviews expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of EconomicResearch.

© 2002 by Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceedtwo paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, isgiven to the source.

Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism:Is There a Causal Connection?Alan B. Krueger and Jitka MaleckovaNBER Working Paper No. 9074July 2002JEL No. J2

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates whether there is a causal link between poverty or low education and

participation in politically motivated violence and terrorist activities. After presenting a discussion of

theoretical issues, we review evidence on the determinants of hate crimes. This literature finds that the

occurrence of hate crimes is largely independent of economic conditions. Next we analyze data on

support for attacks against Israeli targets from public opinion polls conducted in the West Bank and Gaza

Strip. These polls indicate that support for violent attacks does not decrease among those with higher

education and higher living standards. The core contribution of the paper is a statistical analysis of the

determinants of participation in Hezbollah militant activities in Lebanon. The evidence we have

assembled suggests that having a living standard above the poverty line or a secondary school or higher

education is positively associated with participation in Hezbollah. We also find that Israeli Jewish settlers

who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank in the early 1980s were overwhelmingly from high-paying

occupations. The conclusion speculates on why economic conditions and education are largely unrelated

to participation in, and support for, terrorism.

Alan B. Krueger Jitka MaleckovaWoodrow Wilson School Institute for Near Eastern and African StudiesPrinceton University Charles University in PraguePrinceton, NJ 08544 Celetna 20and NBER 100 00 Praha 1, Czech [email protected] [email protected]

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Table 1: Results of December 19-24, 2001 PCPSR Poll of West Bank and Gaza Strip, by Occcupation and Employment Status

Question

Student

Laborer,

Craftsman &

Employee Housewife

Merchant,

Farmer &

Professional Unemployed

Q15. Do you believe that the bin

Laden group is the one that

hijacked the American planes

and destroyed the Twin Towers in

New York on 11 September? Yes or Definitely Yes 25.6% 14.4% 16.0% 16.7% 12.3%

No or Definitely No 53.8% 63.0% 56.6% 68.3% 64.5%

No Opinion 20.5% 22.6% 27.4% 15.0% 23.2%

Q16. In your opinion, are there

any circumstances under which

you would justify the use of

terrorism to achieve political

goals? Yes or Definitely Yes 41.0% 34.6% 36.0% 43.3% 38.4%


No Opinion 9.4% 7.3% 13.4% 8.3% 7.2%

Q17. Do you believe that armed

attacks against Israeli civilians

inside Israel so far have achieved

Palestinian rights in a way that

negotiations could not? Yes or Definitely Yes 66.7% 66.4% 58.2% 64.2% 63.8%


No Opinion 1.7% 2.1% 4.6% 6.7% 0.0%

Question

Student

Laborer,

Craftsman &

Employee Housewife

Merchant,

Farmer &

Professional Unemployed

Q18. Concerning armed attacks

against Israeli targets, I…. Support or Strongly Support 89.7% 80.8% 82.0% 86.7% 73.9%

Oppose or Strongly Oppose 9.4% 16.0% 15.7% 10.0% 23.9%

No Opinion 0.9% 3.1% 2.3% 3.3% 2.2%

Q21. Would you support or

oppose a UN international

initiative to fight terrorism ? Support or Strongly Support 38.5% 34.9% 27.9% 35.0% 33.3%


No Opinion 2.6% 4.2% 8.2% 5.0% 2.9%

Q22-5.To what extent do you

agree or disagree to define the

following event as a terrorist

event: "The killing of 21 Israeli

youths by a Palestinian who

exploded himself at the

Dolphinarium night club in Tel

Aviv" Agree or Strongly Agree 12.0% 14.4% 15.9% 12.5% 18.1%

Disagree or Strongly Disagree 87.2% 81.9% 82.7% 80.8% 79.7%

No Opinion 0.9% 3.7% 1.4% 6.7% 2.2%

Q28. Concerning armed attacks

against Israeli soldiers in the

West Bank and the Gaza Strip,

I…. Support or Strongly Support 95.7% 93.4% 91.3% 94.2% 89.9%


No Opinion 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 0.7%

Notes: Sample size is 117 for students, 381 for laborers, craftsment and employees, 562 for housewives, 120 for merchants, farmers

and professionals, and 138 for unemployed. Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.

Table 2: Results of December 19-24, 2001 PCPSR Poll of West Bank and Gaza Strip, by Educational Attainment

Level of Schooling:

Question Illiterate Elementary Middle Secondary Post-Secondary

Q15. Do you believe that the bin Laden

group is the one that hijacked the

American planes and destroyed the Twin

Towers in New York on 11 September? Yes or Definitely Yes 4.9% 11.6% 19.3% 18.8% 18.5%


No Opinion 37.0% 27.1% 21.9% 22.8% 15.7%

Q16. In your opinion, are there any

circumstances under which you would

justify the use of terrorism to achieve

political goals? Yes or Definitely Yes 32.3% 37.5% 36.9% 39.4% 36.4%


No Opinion 22.4% 9.2% 7.8% 9.2% 6.9%

Q17. Do you believe that armed attacks

against Israeli civilians inside Israel so far

have achieved Palestinian rights in a way

that negotiations could not? Yes or Definitely Yes 56.8% 63.3% 64.8% 63.3% 59.9%


No Opinion 6.8% 3.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.8%

Table 2 -- Continued Level of Schooling:

Question Illiterate Elementary Middle Secondary Post-Secondary

Q18. Concerning armed attacks against

Israeli targets, I…. Support or Strongly Support 72.2% 80.5% 82.1% 86.1% 81.5%


No Opinion 1.9% 2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 4.6%

Q21. Would you support or oppose a UN

international initiative to fight terrorism? Support or Strongly Support 23.6% 29.5% 32.0% 33.0% 42.4%


No Opinion 20.5% 4.8% 4.3% 3.0% 3.2%

Q22-5 To what extent do you agree or

disagree to define the following event as a

terrorist event: "The killing of 21 Israeli

youths by a Palestinian who exploded

himself at the Dolphinarium night club in

Tel Aviv" Agree or Strongly Agree 16.1% 18.8% 13.8% 13.6% 13.5%

Disagree or Strongly Disagree 78.3% 80.4% 84.1% 84.0% 83.3%

No Opinion 5.6% 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% 3.2%

Education Distribution 12.0% 18.7% 25.8% 27.4% 16.1%

Notes: Sample size is 1,345. Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.

Table 3: PCSR Surveys on Economic Conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip

Date

Unemployment

Rate

Economic

situation

better over

last 3 years

Economic

situation

worse over

last 3 years

Optimistic

about

economy

Next 3 years

Pessimistic

about

economy

next 3 years

Mar 1995 38%

Mar 1996 49

Nov 1997 27

Jul/Aug 1998 26 37.5% 31.2% 50.8% 29.2%

Oct 1998 29

Nov 1998 24

Jan 1999 25

April 1999 20

June 1999 20

July 1999 18

Sept 1999 23 39.2 27.6 50.4 27.5

Oct 1999 17

Dec 1999 19

Jan 2000 23

Feb 2000 19 43.3 24.6 55.8 27.2

Mar/Apr 2000 17

Dec 2001 21

Source: PCPSR polls conducted at various times. Poll results are available from

www.pcpsr.org/survey/cprspolls/index.html.

Table 4: Characteristics of Hezbollah Militants (Shahid ) and Lebanese Population of

Similar Age

Deceased Lebanese

Hezbollah Population

Characteristic Militants Age 15-38

< Poverty 28% 33% p-value for chi-sq test =0.489

Education

Illiterate 0% 6%

Read and write 22% 7%

Primary 17% 23%

Preparatory 14% 26%

Secondary 33% 23%

University 13% 14%

High Studies 1% 1% p-value for chi-sq test =0.000

Age

Mean 22.17 25.57

[std. dev.] (3.99) (6.78)

15-17 2% 15%

18-20 41% 14%

21-25 42% 23%

26-30 10% 20%

31-38 5% 28% p-value for chi-sq test =0.000

Hezbollah 21% NA

Education

System

Region of Residence

Beirut 42% 13%

Mount Lebanon 0% 36%

Bekaa 26% 13%

Nabatieh 2% 6%

South 30% 10%

North 0% 22% p-value for chi-sq test =0.000

Marrital Status

Divorced 1% NA

Engaged 5% NA

Married 39% NA

Single 55% NA

Notes: Sample size for Lebanese population sample is 120,796. Sample size

for Hezbollah is 50 for poverty status, 78 for education, 81 for age (measured at

death, 129 for education in Hezbollah system, 116 for region of residence, and

75 for marital status. Chi-square test refers to a test of the null hypothesis

that the characteristic is independent of Hezbollah status.

Table 5: Logistic Estimates of Participation in Hezbollah

Dependent Variable is 1 if Individual is a Deceased Hezbollah Militant, and 0 Otherwise

Standard errors shown in parentheses

All of Lebanon: Heavily Shiite Regions:

Unweighted Estimates Weighted Estimates Weighted Estimates

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Intercept -4.886 -5.910 -5.965 -6.991 -4.658 -5.009

(0.365) (0.391) (0.230) (0.255) (0.232) (0.261)

Attended Secondary 0.281 0.171 0.281 0.170 0.220 0.279

School or Higher (1=yes) (0.191) (0.193) (0.159) (0.164) (0.159) (0.167)

Poverty (1=yes) -0.335 -0.167 -0.335 -0.167 -0.467 -0.500

(0.221) (0.223) (0.158) (0.162) (0.159) (0.166)

Age -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.082

(0.015) (0.015) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008)

Beirut (1=yes) --- 2.199 --- 2.200 --- 0.168

(0.219) (0.209) (0.222)

South Lebanon --- 2.187 --- 2.187 --- 1.091

(1=yes) (0.232) (0.221) (0.221)

Pseudo R-Square 0.020 0.091 0.018 0.080 0.021 0.033

Sample Size 120,925 120,925 120,925 120,925 34,826 34,826

Notes: Sample pools together observations on 129 deceased Hezbollah fighters and the general Lebanese

population from 1996 PHS. Weights used in columns (3) and (4) are the relative share of Hezbollah

militants in the population to their share in the sample and relative share of PHS respondents in the

sample to their share in the population. Weight is 0.273 for Hezbollah sample and .093 for PHS sample.

Table 6: Characteristics of Israeli Jewish Underground Terrorists in Early 1980s

Name

Year of

Birth Occupation Underground Activity

Katriel Avinoam >1965 Army officer Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow

up the Dome of the Rock Mosque 1980.

Dan Be'eri 1945 Established an

elemetary school in

Kiryat Arba, founder

of the Barkai

educational method

Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow

up the Dome of the Rock Mosque, 1980

(left the group in 1982).

Haim Ben-David 1952 Geography and

history expert


up the dome of the rock mosque 1980-82,

and participated in the attack on the

National Guidance Committee 1980.

Yeshua Ben-Shushan 1946 NA Instigated the conspiracy attempt to blow

up the Dome of the Rock Mosque 1980.

Yehuda Cohen NA Yeshiva student Carried out the reconnaissance on the

Temple Mount.

Yossi Edri NA Electrician Participated in the acquisition of the

clocks used in the attempt to blow up Arab

buses (April 27, 1984).

Yehuda Etzion 1951 Farmer and writer Prime mover of the Dome of the Rock

conspiracy and key figure in the attack on

the mayors.

Yitzhak Ganiram (Akaleh) 1945 Teacher and special

education teacher for

learning disabled

youth

Participated in the attack on the mayors,

offered limited assistance in the Dome of

the Rock conspiracy. Let the perpatrators

of the Islamic College killings use his car.

Aaron (Roni) Gilo NA Army captain Not member of the Underground. But

used his military position to aid those

involved in the attack on the mayors.

Benzion (Bentz)

Heineman

1936 Religious scholar and

farmer

Helped carry out the technical

preparations of several underground

operations.

Boaz Heineman The owner of a farm

and carpentry shop

Prepared explosives for the underground.

Continued

Table 6 -- Continued

Yaakov Heineman 1948 Air force combat pilot

and a farmer.

Played a limited role in the conspiracy

attempt to blow up the Dome of the Rock

Mosque, 1980.

Shlomo Liviatan NA Officer in the Judeans

Samaria Army

headquarters

Played a limited role in the attack of the

mayors.

Menachem Livni 1950 Engineer Participated in planning all operations

associated with the underground.

Uri Meier NA Farmer Participated in the aborted attack on

Bethlehem's Dr. Natshe.

Natan Natanson 1957 NA Involved in the attack on the mayors.

Menachem Neuberger 1965 Yeshiva student Participated in the intelligence gathering

stage of the attack on the mayors.

Barak Nir NA Teacher Participated in the attack on the Islamic

College and in the attempt to sabotage

the Arab buses.

Shaul Nir 1954 Engineer Involved in the Islamic College killings and

initiated the attempt to sabotage the Arab

buses

Yitzchak Novik 1948 Chemist, farmer Participated in the attack on the mayors.

Gilad Peli NA Farmer and Israel

geography expert.

Helped in the attack on the mayors;

helped in the Dome of the Rock

conspiracy.

Era Rappaport 1948 NA Participated in the attack on the mayors.

Hagai Segal 1957 Reporter and

university student

Participated in the attack on the mayors.

Uzi Sharbaf 1960 Physical education

teacher

Involved in the Islamic College killings and

initiated the attempt to sabotage the Arab

buses.

Yosef Tzuria 1959 Computer

programmer


up the Dome of the Rock Mosque.

Noam Yinon 1957 Farmer Convicted of supplying explosives to Livni

and Shaul.

Moshe Zar 1937 Land dealer Was the driver in the attack on the

mayors.

Sources: Black and Morris (1991); Friedman (1992); Neff (1999) and Segal (1988).

2002.07 krueger & maleckova education, poverty, political violence & terrorism

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