2004 philippine presidential elections

8/3/2019 2004 Philippine Presidential Elections

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The True Results of the 2004

Philippine Presidential Electionsbased on the NAMFREL Tally

By Roberto Verzola

published in Kasarinlan (Vol. 19 No. 2)

Journal of Third World Studies

University of the Philippines



Comparing Congress,

NAMFREL tallies● Congress tally considered complete

– 32.3 million votes counted

– GMA lead over FPJ is 1.1M votes (3.48%)

– Average vote turnout: 149.0 votes per precinct

● NAMFREL tally was 82.98% complete

– 26.4 million votes counted – GMA lead over FPJ is 680,922 votes (2.58%)

– Average vote turnout: 145.2 votes per precinct



Can we compare the percentages?

● Of course, we can!

● Exit polls and surveys have different numbers of

respondents (1,500 to 5,000), but their percentageresults can be compared to each other and to thefinal election results.

● The NAMFREL database is just an exit poll withmore respondents (26.4 million).

● In Europe and elsewhere, exit polls haveconsistently predicted election winners



ERs nearer the truth than COCs

● 216,500+ electionreturns (ERs)

● Went thru few hands(precinct level only)

● Unofficial results areless important

●

Open tally by teachersand volunteers morecredible

● Only 177 Certificatesof Canvass

● Went thru precinct,municipal, thenprovincial canvassers

● Cheaters focus on

official results● COMELEC provincial

officials less credible



Finding #1:

Huge discrepancies existbetween the Congress

and NAMFREL tallies



Definition of GMA % MarginGMA votes – FPJ votes

-----------------------------------------------

GMA + FPJ + Lacson + Roco + V’nueva

or

GMA Lead

--------------------Total votes



Table 2. Mga probinsiyang grabe ang dayaan, top 10

Probinsya Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya

Basilan 22.8% -52.3% 75.1%Sultan Kudarat 36.3% -29.1% 65.4%

Lanao del Sur 46.8% -11.1% 58.0%

Sulu 12.0% -29.3% 41.3%

Tawi-Tawi -18.5% -54.3% 35.9%Maguindanao 48.3% 29.7% 18.7%

Lanao del Norte -2.3% -18.4% 16.2%

Sarangani -13.9% -22.6% 8.7%

Romblon -4.0% -10.4% 6.4%

Zambales -25.3% -29.6% 4.3%

Nota: Sa yellow, nabago ang panalo.

Ang unang 8 probinsiya ay nasa Mindanao.



Table 1. Lamang ni GMA kay FPJ

Rehiyon Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya

Mindanao 6.9% -1.5% 8.4%

ARMM 31.3% -19.2% 50.5%C.Mindanao -7.0% -20.5% 13.5%

CAR 13.4% 9.3% 4.1%

N.Mindanao 0.8% -3.0% 3.9%

W.Mindanao 8.6% 4.9% 3.8%CARAGA 24.0% 22.7% 1.3%

S.Mindanao -0.6% -1.2% 0.6%

Nota: Sa yellow, nabago ang panalo

Congress: GMA won in 9 of 16 regions nationwideGMA won in 4 of 6 regions in Mindanao

Namfrel: FPJ won in 4 of 16 regions nationwide

FPJ won in 4 of 6 regions in Mindanao

The 8.4% total discrepancy means around 600,000 votes.



Table 3. Diperensya sa dami ng boto bawat presinto

Rehiyon Kongreso NAMFREL Diperensya

Pilipinas 149.0 145.2 3.9 837,454

ARMM 153.4 99.8 53.6 307,484

Ilocos 167.7 147.0 20.7 235,563

C.Visayas 151.0 136.7 14.3 236,985

E.Visayas 146.6 138.2 8.3 88,039

C.Minda 140.7 132.9 7.8 70,930

Bicol 152.1 147.3 4.8 58,822C.Valley 153.2 156.8 -3.6 -26,064

Nota: Sa yellow, 10 boto o higit pa ang nadagdag bawat presinto.

Nadagdag

na boto



Conclusion #1:GMA could not have

won by 1.1 million.

The worst cheatingoccurred in Mindanao.



Finding #2:The NAMFREL count

tallied pro-GMA regionsmore completely than pro-

FPJ regions, biasing thecount in favor of GMA.



Consider a hypothetical case

● Candidates A and B evenly matched

● Two electoral regions

–Region 1: Candidate A leads B

–Region 2: Candidate B leads A

● Their leads cancel each other out● In an honest tally, it is a tie all the way



Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 800 1,000

B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000

A's lead, Overall 0 0 0 0 0

Evenly-matched candidates, honest count




B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000





Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 600 1,000 1,000

B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000


Evenly-matched candidates, dishonest count



Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 1,000 1,000 1,000

B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000





Reports #1 #2 #3 #4 #5A's lead, Reg. 1 200 400 1,000 1,000 1,000

B's lead, Reg. 2 200 400 600 800 1,000



Aborting the tally at 80% completion

makes A appear to be the winner.



GMA Area

(Lead in 000's) % done

Votes not

counted

FPJ Area


Votes not

countedC.Visayas (1,293) 101% -5,992 S.Tagalog (924) 88% 635,610

W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329

CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133

Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182

OAV (47) 100% 0 Ilocos (98) 88% 199,165CAR (42) 79% 121,735 C.Luzon (70) 80% 793,498

E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193

W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611

S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709

All GMA Areas 1,029,243 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430

Table 4. Completion of NAMFREL tally, by region

Note: Progress of count was based on the region's average vote per precinct as

computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up

after Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.



GMA Area


Votes not

counted

FPJ Area


Votes not


W.Visayas (757) 83% 490,350 NCR (290) 74% 1,038,329

CARAGA (144) 73% 233,300 C.Minda (129) 52% 569,133

Bicol (71) 95% 69,318 C.Valley (112) 82% 246,182


E.Visayas (42) 104% -50,885 ARMM (68) 75% 109,193

W.Minda (31) 85% 171,417 N.Minda (39) 87% 203,611

S.Minda (16) 86% 211,709








Conclusion #2

The NAMFREL count understated

the number of FPJ votes and gaveus a wrong picture of the results.

Thus, the cheating was worse than

what the Congress-NAMFRELdiscrepancies show.



Can we still get the truth?

Yes, it is possible!

We must reinterpret theNAMFREL database as an exit

poll of 26.4 million respondents,

and correct the disproportional

representation of regions.



Per region (or province): Known

Unknown

Number of votes tallied

Distribution of votes among candidates

Votes not

tallied

Votes:

Precincts:

Total number of precincts

Number of precincts tallied

Key information!

Precincts

not tallied

Avg. votesper precinct

Estimating the true results of the 2004 elections

Voteturnout



GMA Area

(Lead in 000's)

Votes not

counted

Add'l

Lead

FPJ Area

(Lead in 000's)

Votes not

counted

Add'l

Lead

C.Visayas (1,293) -5,992 -61,362 S.Tagalog (924) 635,610 146,304

W.Visayas (757) 490,350 148,215 NCR (290) 1,038,329 159,686

CARAGA (144) 233,300 52,083 C.Minda (129) 569,133 306,157

Bicol (71) 69,318 1,670 C.Valley (112) 246,182 32,953

OAV (47) 0 0 Ilocos (98) 199,165 -10,090

CAR (42) 121,735 -24,892 C.Luzon (70) 793,498 130,356

E.Visayas (42) -50,885 -2,136 ARMM (68) 109,193 77,644

W.Minda (31) 171,417 54,671 N.Minda (39) 203,611 21,690

S.Minda (16) 211,709 68,331

All GMA Areas 1,029,243 168,250 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430 933,030

Final Lead, FPJ 83,858

Table 4. Estimated leads in the votes not counted, one end of the range


computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up after

Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.



GMA Area

(Lead in 000's)

Votes not

counted

Add'l

Lead

FPJ Area

(Lead in 000's)

Votes not

counted

Add'l

Lead

C.Visayas (1,293) -5,992 -27,220 S.Tagalog (924) 635,610 146,304

W.Visayas (757) 490,350 148,215 NCR (290) 1,038,329 159,686

CARAGA (144) 233,300 52,083 C.Minda (129) 569,133 126,958

Bicol (71) 69,318 1,670 C.Valley (112) 246,182 32,953

OAV (47) 0 0 Ilocos (98) 199,165 -10,090

CAR (42) 121,735 -24,892 C.Luzon (70) 793,498 130,356

E.Visayas (42) -50,885 -2,136 ARMM (68) 109,193 51,017

W.Minda (31) 171,417 54,671 N.Minda (39) 203,611 21,690

S.Minda (16) 211,709 68,331

All GMA Areas 1,029,243 202,391 All FPJ Areas 4,006,430 727,203

Final Lead, GMA 156,110

Table 4. Estimated leads in the votes not counted, other end of the range


computed from Report No. 73. Exceeding 100% means that this average went up after

Report No. 73. Bicol is Roco's bailiwick but GMA won over FPJ there.



Conclusion #3● It was a very close contest.

● Based on NAMFREL's database, either

candidate could have won: GMA by atmost 156,000 or FPJ by at most 84,000.

● These results suggest that to give GMA

a 1.1 million lead, her party had tocheat by 1 to 1.2 million votes.



Can we get closer to the truth?

Yes!

But we need NAMFREL'sbreakdown of precincts counted

per province for its 83 reports,

which its COMELEC accreditationrequires it to make public.

NAMFREL Reports: The Missing Data



NAMFREL Reports: The Missing Data

Province

Abra Missing! 90-100%

Agusan del Norte Missing! 50-60%

Agusan del Sur Missing! 70-80%

Aklan Missing! 90-100%... Missing!

Zambales Missing! 70-80%

Zambo del Norte Missing! 50-60%

Zambo del Sur Missing! 90-100%

Zambo Sibugay Missing! 90-100%

National Total 179,564

No. of precincts

tallied

NAMFREL

Report



A word about sample sizes

● Pollsters’ rule: a random saple size of 2,500 gives an

estimate (of, say, a candidate’s share of the votes) with a3% error margin at a 99.7% confidence level.

●

Square the reduction desired in error margin to get theincrease needed in sample size. For example:

– To reduce the error margin to 1% (i.e., by 3), increase the

sample size 9 times (i.e., to 22,500)

– To reduce the error margin to 0.03% (i.e., by 100), increase thesample size 10,000 times (i.e., to 25 million)

● The NAMFREL database is a sample size of 26.4 million



Thank you

Roberto Verzola Philippine Greens

[email protected]

0919-608-7073

NAMFREL Tally Completion By Region



NAMFREL Tally Completion, By Region

Rank

in

lead GMA Area Completion

Votes not

counted FPJ Area Completion

Votes not

counted

1 C.Visayas 91% (101) -5,992 S.Tagalog 88% (88) 635,610

2 W.Visayas 95% (83) 490,350 NCR 75% (74) 1,038,329

3 CARAGA 73% (73) 233,300 C.Minda 51% (52) 569,133

4 Bicol 91% (95) 69,318 C.Valley 82% (82) 246,182

5 OAV 100% (100) 0 Ilocos 83% (88) 199,165

6 CAR 79% (79) 121,735 C.Luzon 80% (80) 793,498

7 E.Visayas 93% (104) -50,885 ARMM 60% (75) 109,193

8 W.Minda 83% (85) 171,417 N.Minda 88% (87) 203,611

9 S.Minda 86% (86) 211,709

Total, GMA Areas 1,029,243 Total, FPJ Areas 4,006,430Note: The completion figures were lifted as-is from the document NAMFREL

chairman Jose Concepcion Jr. distributed at the July 8 BBC conference in Makati. In

parenthesis are my estimates, based on average votes/precinct computed from earlierReport No. 73. Numbers under "Votes not counted" are also my estimates.



GMA Area

Votes not

counted

(R. #82)

%

counted

(R. #83)

GMA

Lead FPJ Area

Votes not

counted

(R. #82)

%

counted

(R. #83)

FPJ

Lead

C.Visayas 125,509 105% 103,997 S.Tagalog 888,262 28% 58,155

W.Visayas 651,322 25% 48,656 NCR 1,160,189 11% 18,741

CARAGA 278,546 16% 10,101 C.Minda 569,133 0% 0Bicol 118,497 42% 1,185 C.Valley 248,341 1% 289

OAV 0 Ilocos 335,537 41% -6,909

CAR 151,103 19% -6,005 C.Luzon 813,470 2% 3,281

E.Visayas 333,377 115% 16,132 ARMM 169,529 36% -14,649

W.Minda 341,009 50% 54,089 N.Minda 222,677 9% 2,031

S.Minda 217,571 1,892Total 1,999,363 49% 228,155 Total 4,624,709 13% 62,831

NAMFREL Terminal Report (#83): Where the votes came from

2004 philippine presidential elections

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