2005 liee impact evaluation final report january 23, 2007 presentation to the low income oversight...
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2005 LIEE Impact Evaluation2005 LIEE Impact EvaluationFinal ReportFinal Report
January 23, 2007January 23, 2007
Presentation to the Low Income Oversight Board
West Hill Energy and Computing, Inc. West Hill Energy and Computing, Inc.
withwithRidge and AssociatesRidge and Associates
Energy Center of WisconsinEnergy Center of WisconsinWirtshafter AssociatesWirtshafter Associates
KVD ConsultingKVD Consulting
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OutlineOutline
PY 05 Impact Evaluation Goals & ObjectivesPY 05 Impact Evaluation Goals & Objectives Components of the Research PlanComponents of the Research Plan Changes from Previous EvaluationsChanges from Previous Evaluations ResultsResults Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations
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Program goal: Program goal: installation of all feasible measures in installation of all feasible measures in the homes of low income customersthe homes of low income customers
On site data collection:On site data collection:generally restricted to the presence or generally restricted to the presence or absence of particular measures and the absence of particular measures and the quantity installed at the time of the audit quantity installed at the time of the audit
Program Goals and Data CollectionProgram Goals and Data Collection
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Goals & ObjectivesGoals & Objectives
Photograph of K2 in summer from Wikipedia Commons
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Evaluation ResultsEvaluation Results
Load impact evaluation Load impact evaluation – First year energy savingsFirst year energy savings– By house type, by measureBy house type, by measure– Coincident peak demand savingsCoincident peak demand savings
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PY05 Evaluation ObjectivesPY05 Evaluation Objectives
Measure-specific focusMeasure-specific focus– lighting, cooling and DHW low flowlighting, cooling and DHW low flow
Energy education Energy education – qualitative assessmentqualitative assessment
Estimate energy savings Estimate energy savings – Household and end use levelHousehold and end use level
Missed opportunitiesMissed opportunities– Preliminary assessmentPreliminary assessment
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ChallengesChallenges
Household savings are small in comparison Household savings are small in comparison to usageto usage
Many measures, multiple housing typesMany measures, multiple housing types Billing data unavailable for mobile homesBilling data unavailable for mobile homes Some measures may improve efficiency, but Some measures may improve efficiency, but
also increase usealso increase use Mild heating and cooling climatesMild heating and cooling climates
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PY05 Research PlanPY05 Research PlanThree Phase ApproachThree Phase Approach
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Month/Year
Ch
ang
e in
Usa
ge
(Mo
nth
ly k
Wh
)
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PhasesPhases
Phase IPhase I– Ride alongsRide alongs– Improving program data collectionImproving program data collection– Showerhead surveyShowerhead survey
Phase IIPhase II– On-site SurveyOn-site Survey
Phase IIIPhase III– Billing analysisBilling analysis– Integration of resultsIntegration of results
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Improved Data CollectionImproved Data Collection
Added critical fields to program data Added critical fields to program data collection formscollection forms– Fuel used for space and water heatingFuel used for space and water heating– Presence of working air conditioningPresence of working air conditioning– Was furnace working prior to repair or Was furnace working prior to repair or
replacement?replacement?
Implemented during the first quarter of 2005Implemented during the first quarter of 2005
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Showerhead SurveyShowerhead Survey
Collected showerheads and aerators Collected showerheads and aerators removed from participants’ homesremoved from participants’ homes– Sent to a testing facility– Flow rates measures at 4 pressures
Two-stage cluster sampleTwo-stage cluster sample– Selected delivery contractor– Set number of showerheads to be collected
Total of 268 showerheads and 187 Total of 268 showerheads and 187 aerators testedaerators tested
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On Site SurveyOn Site Survey
Post-installation, on site Post-installation, on site surveyssurveys– 399 homes visited399 homes visited– Stratified, 2-stage cluster Stratified, 2-stage cluster
samplesample
– Checked short-term measure persistence, reviewed Checked short-term measure persistence, reviewed energy education, assessed missed opportunities, energy education, assessed missed opportunities, measured showerhead pressures and flow rates measured showerhead pressures and flow rates
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Billing AnalysisBilling Analysis
Gas and ElectricGas and Electric Data from program tracking, billing records Data from program tracking, billing records
and utility weather stationsand utility weather stations Included all participants who passed Included all participants who passed
screening criteriascreening criteria– Sufficient and usable billing history availableSufficient and usable billing history available– New program-level data availableNew program-level data available
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Changes from Previous EvaluationsChanges from Previous Evaluations
Improved measure-Improved measure-level estimateslevel estimates– On-site survey provides On-site survey provides
contextcontext Smaller measures were Smaller measures were
combinedcombined Coincident peak Coincident peak
savings were estimatedsavings were estimated
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Insights from the On-Site SurveyInsights from the On-Site Survey
Provides support for measure-level savingsProvides support for measure-level savings– Heating savingsHeating savings
~ half of participants have very low heating use~ half of participants have very low heating use
– Evaporative coolersEvaporative coolers At least 35% of participants do not useAt least 35% of participants do not use
their evaporative coolers correctlytheir evaporative coolers correctly
– LightingLighting Hours of use are low, retention rate is lowHours of use are low, retention rate is low
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Combining MeasuresCombining Measures
Air Sealing
Hot WaterConservation
CaulkingWeatherstrippingOutlet gasketsMinor home repairsWindow replacement/repairDoor replacement/repairWindow glazing
Low flow showerheadsLow flow aeratorsTank wrapsPipe Insulation
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Results: Bringing It All TogetherResults: Bringing It All Together
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Who are the LIEE participants?Who are the LIEE participants?
Low usersLow users– Use less electricity and gas than the average Use less electricity and gas than the average
residential customer residential customer
Fewer opportunities (electric)Fewer opportunities (electric)– Lower penetration of electric space and water Lower penetration of electric space and water
heating and cooling equipmentheating and cooling equipment
Many practice energy conservation prior to Many practice energy conservation prior to program participationprogram participation
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Total Program SavingsTotal Program Savings
# of
ParticipantsAnnual
MWh
Coincident Peak
(KW)AnnualTherms
PG&E 61,519 24,678 4,588 1,029,125
SCE 41,397 18,001 2,920
SDG&E 13,737 4,640 800 154,498
SoCalGas 41,535 711,768
Totals 158,188 47,319 8,309 1,895,391
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Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)
37,011
7,558
1,083 1,052 126 4900
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Refrig
erato
rs
Lighti
ng
DHW C
onserv
ation
Cooling
Mea
sure
s
Attic I
nsulat
ion
Air Sea
ling
An
nu
al M
Wh
Sav
ings
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Electric Savings & Refrigerator PenetrationElectric Savings & Refrigerator Penetration
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
PY2000 PY2001 PY2002 PY2005
% o
f P
arti
cip
ants
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
An
nu
al k
Wh
Sav
ing
s
Percent of participants with refrigerators
Average annual per household savings savings
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Program Savings by End Use (Gas)Program Savings by End Use (Gas)
1,114,157
28,016
250,508
490,395
12,3140
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
DHWConservation
DHWReplace
AtticInsulation
Air Sealing HS Repair &Replace
An
nu
al T
her
m S
avin
gs
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How do these Estimates Compare?How do these Estimates Compare?
PG&EPG&EUnit Electric Savings
(kWh)Unit Gas Savings
(Therms)
PY2005 PY2001 PY2005 PY2001
Refrigerators 757 736
Lighting (CFL's) 16 20
DHW Conservation 277 228 12.7 18.8
Evaporative Cooler Install 247 254
Attic Insulation/Cooling 101 281 60.4 40.5
Attic Insulation/Heating 254 205
Furnace Repair/Replace 3.4 43.2
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Considerations for Future EvaluationsConsiderations for Future Evaluations
How often are impact evaluations needed? How often are impact evaluations needed? What are issues influencing cost-What are issues influencing cost-
effectiveness?effectiveness?– Should LIEE services be targeted to specific Should LIEE services be targeted to specific
groups?groups?
How will changes in measure specification How will changes in measure specification affect program savings?affect program savings?
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Frequency of Impact EvaluationsFrequency of Impact Evaluations
Currently scheduled every two yearsCurrently scheduled every two years– PY2004 postponed to PY2005 to improve PY2004 postponed to PY2005 to improve
program data collectionprogram data collection
Household savings reasonably stableHousehold savings reasonably stable May not need to maintain two-year cycle, May not need to maintain two-year cycle,
unless there are substantial changes to the unless there are substantial changes to the programprogram
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Program Cost-EffectivenessProgram Cost-Effectiveness
Opportunities for savings are lower Opportunities for savings are lower – LIEE participants use less and conserve.LIEE participants use less and conserve.
Refrigerators are a huge contributor to electric Refrigerators are a huge contributor to electric savings.savings.– Changing standards affect per home savings.Changing standards affect per home savings.
Higher use = higher savingsHigher use = higher savings More extreme climates = higher savings for More extreme climates = higher savings for
heating and cooling measuresheating and cooling measures Energy savings are not the only benefit from this Energy savings are not the only benefit from this
program.program.
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Non-Energy BenefitsNon-Energy Benefits
Health and SafetyHealth and Safety– Heating systems are not working in 45% of Heating systems are not working in 45% of
homes with heating system repair or homes with heating system repair or replacements replacements
Comfort Comfort – Very low users show an increase in use after Very low users show an increase in use after
program participationprogram participation Suggests that “savings” are being taken in the form Suggests that “savings” are being taken in the form
of improved comfortof improved comfort
Improved ability to pay billsImproved ability to pay bills
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Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts
Impact goals should be consistent with the Impact goals should be consistent with the objectives of the program.objectives of the program.– Non-energy benefits may be worth exploring.Non-energy benefits may be worth exploring.
Exercise caution in considering whether to Exercise caution in considering whether to eliminate a measure or change measure eliminate a measure or change measure specifications.specifications.– Measure may have important non-energy benefits.Measure may have important non-energy benefits.– Changing eligibility requirements is likely to affect Changing eligibility requirements is likely to affect bothboth
the the number of homesnumber of homes with the measure and the with the measure and the savings per homesavings per home..
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Questions?Questions?
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AppendicesAppendices
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How reliable are these estimates?How reliable are these estimates?
Internal Validation• Compare models• Compare billing analysis
to alternative estimates
External Validation• Compare to previous
LIEE evaluations• Compare to external
studies
Reliable Savings Estimates
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Comparison of Household SavingsComparison of Household Savings
Average Savings per Home
AverageEnergy
UsePY05
PY05 PY02 PY01 PY00
Avg. Energy Use and Savings Trends (kWh)
5,431 423 366 213 175
Avg. Gas Use and Savings Trends (Therms)
421 18 8 18 24
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Electric Savings by Measure GroupElectric Savings by Measure Group
# of Households
Savings per home
(kWh)
Program Savings (MWh)
Refrigerators 49,042 755 37,011
Lighting 95,391 79 7,558
DHW Conservation 3,959 274 1,083
Cooling Measures 5,330 197 1,052
Attic Insulation
Heating 175 253 44
Cooling 812 100 81
Air Sealing/Envelope 7,484 65 490
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Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)
Refrigerators79%
Cooling Measures
2%DHW
Conservation2%
Lighting16%
Air Sealing1%
Attic Insulation
0%
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Coincident Peak SavingsCoincident Peak Savings by End Use by End Use
Refrigerators76%
Lighting9%
DHW Conservation
11%
Cooling Measures
4%
Attic Insulation0%
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Gas Savings by Measure GroupGas Savings by Measure Group
# of
Households
Savings per home (Therms)
Program Savings
(Therms)
DHW
Conservation 91,120 12.2 1,114,157
Repair/Replace 2,325 12.1 28,016
Heating Measures
Attic Insulation 4,981 50.3 250,508
Air Sealing/Envelope 83,896 5.8 490,395
Repair/Replace 4,911 2.5 12,314