2006 05 severn estuary perspective - roger wade, environment agency
TRANSCRIPT
The Severn Estuary and Climate Change
1st Severn Estuary Forum 8th June 2006.Dr Roger Wade
Environment Agency Wales.
My talk…...• Direct Impacts of climate change
– Flood Risk Management/ Coastal erosion– Habitats– Water resources
• Indirect impacts– Renewable energy resource– Aggregates (new build)– Leisure.
The changes….
Damage from Flooding- 2080 at 700ppm CO2 and 550ppm CO2.
Coastal Erosion-High Emissions 2080.
fisheriesPre-June (Spring) salmon rod catch, River Wye 1950-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001
No.
of s
alm
on
Changes in bird numbers
What is in or out?• Ten year trends %• Dunlin -23• Bewick Swan -75• Whooper Swan 22• Shellduck -59• Redshank -1• Gadwall 82
Water resources- Lower Summer flows?
• Salt ingress• Dredging costs• Oxygen depletion• Salmon Migration
Renewable Energy- Barrage ???
Aggregates dredging• Domestic energy reduction =
new houses= aggregates• Welsh demand largely from
Bristol Channel• Possible erosion to beaches
and cliffs• Further pressure inland
Warmer- good for holidays?