2007

RussiaRussia-2020: -2020: Technological ModernizationTechnological Modernization

XI International Economic Forum in PeterburgXI International Economic Forum in Peterburg

A new stage of development

Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth.

Oil “windfall profit”-based growth opportunities present today are obviously exhausted in the mid-term perspective

In addition, new critical long-term challenges arise:

• demography – labor scarceness and ageing population lead to a к быстрому росту пенсионной нагрузки. There is also a range of migration challenges;

•technology – a start of a new technology age in developed countries.

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Challenges and limitations on growth perspectives

• Insufficient focus on top research priorities;• Lack of adequate researchers in some areas;• Lack of shared vision of technological development by government, business and research

society. Widening rift between fundamental and applied science, and between demand from business and applied science

• Need for venture institutions supporting large projects;• Distorted motivation for business innovations

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Energy:• More capital-intensive extraction means less return on prospective investments;• A rise in demand for edge-cutting technologies as resource extraction is harder in new

fields/deposits.

Shipping:• Competition wth China (TRACECA is almost complete, 300-400 km left);• конфликт с другими направлениями использования опорной транспортной сети

(Транссиб);

Hi-tech capabilities:

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Research potential

• Russia is among top 15 research spenders (PPP-based);

• Russia is the third on number employed in science after U.S. and China по численности занятых в этой сфере;

• Russian science retained ability to conduct contemporary research in wide range of areas

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Technological modernization is a key :

• realizing competitive advantages in science and technology

• mass industry modernization

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The scope of research potential

Domestic R&D spending Domestic R&D spending ((PPP-PPP-based based USD bnUSD bn, 200, 20044))

R&D employmentR&D employment ( (thousandsthousands, , 2004)2004)

313

118

94

59

39

33

28

20

16

12

6

5

5

3

2

1 10 100 1000

USA

Japan

China

Germany

France

UK

South Korea

Canada

Russia

Spain

Swiss

Finland

Austria

Poland

Czech

2409

1153

952

896

473

346

280

194

177

162

78

58

52

39

29

110100100010000

USA

China

Russia

Japan

Germany

France

UK

South Korea

Canada

Spain

Poland

Finland

Swiss

Austria

Czech

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Research potential: resource concentration

R&D spending on a person employedR&D spending on a person employed ( (PPP USD ‘000PPP USD ‘000, 2004), 2004)

146

140

132

130

127

121

117

112

108

82

80

73

67

34

17

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

South Korea

Austria

Japan

USA

Germany

UK

Canada

France

Swiss

China

Finland

Spain

Czech

Poland

Russia

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Research potential: cost and result

Hi-tech exports and R&D spending Hi-tech exports and R&D spending ((as as %% of GDP of GDP, 2001), 2001)

0.0

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Россия

Сингапур

Ирландия

Малайзия

Филиппины

Таиланд

Швеция

Япония

США

ГерманияИзраиль

Швейцария

Венгрия

Мексика

Франция

Австрия

Нидерланды

Норвегия

Чили

Китай

Итали

ЮАР

Румыния

Чехия

Индия

Словакия

Венесуэла

Эстония

Финляндия

Великобритания

Австралия

Колумбия

Аргентина

Канада

Бельгия

Корея

Турция

затраты на R&D

эк

сп

ор

т

вы

со

ко

те

хн

ол

ог

ич

но

й

пр

од

ук

ци

и

Группа

Группа II

Группа

Группа

Н.Зеландия

Дания

Польша

Бразилия

Греция

Словения

Исландия

Иордания

Люксембург

Португалия

Испания

Loss from cost-result disparity in innovations is estimated at 23-25 USD bn. per year. Unrealized technology export gains account for 22-24 USD bn. per year, while undervalued exports account for another 1 USD bn. Loss from cost-result disparity in innovations is estimated at 23-25 USD bn. per year. Unrealized technology export gains account for 22-24 USD bn. per year, while undervalued exports account for another 1 USD bn.

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Research potentialResearch potential: : goals for Russiagoals for Russia1. To secure developed markets position:• products should conform to quality and technology standards;• customer needs should be a priority;• life-long service and maintenance for production.2. To provide sustainable growth• 3-5% yearly energy intensity decrease;• 6-7% yearly labor productivity increase;• energy industry development measures – new APP development, extraction

under unfavorable natural conditions; gas transit from arctic zone.3. To realize national technological achievements and advantages:1. aerospace industry (WIG craft, supersonic passenger aircraft, гиперзвуковые

ЛА);2. nuclear energy (fast neutron reactors)

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Research potentialResearch potential: : internal goalsinternal goals

Required efficiency growthRequired efficiency growth (%) (%)

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1010

Research potentialResearch potential: : development strategiesdevelopment strategies

1. Catching-up scenario

Provide the needs of business, energy industry and national defense with minimum

risk:• intensive research on a limited scope of technologies needed by energy industry

and Ministry of Defense;• development of innovation system to select and adapt imported technologies.

2. Local leadership scenario

Emergence of a strong national R&D system. Active participation in hi-tech markets

based on technological advantages:• edge-cutting technological achievements realizing competitive advantage in

research and emergence of new markets;• launching global projects lead by Russian enterprises;• developing R&D institutions to match ongoing R&D to business demand.

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National competitiveness

New R&D policy

Combining institutional and project approach

• new technology monitoring system;

• shared vision of future developments by business and government (technology foresight);

• focus on a limited number of breakthrough projects with sizeable system impact;

• forming national innovation infrastructure. Institutionalization of technology market, including intellectual property protection;

• providing incentives for hi-tech upgrade of the industry.

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Research potential: probable impact from implementation

Capabilities for increasing export of machines and equipmentCapabilities for increasing export of machines and equipment ((USD bnUSD bn))

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

5

7

9

11

13

15

Экспорт машин и оборудования, максимальный вариант Экспорт машин и оборудования, минимальный вариант

% к экспорту всего (правая шкала) % к экспорту всего (правая шкала)

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