2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIPOzone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy

Laki Tisopulos, Ph.D., P.E.A i t t D t E ti OffiAssistant Deputy Executive Officer

South Coast Air Quality Management District

NACAA Spring Membership Meeting

11

p g p gMay 6, 2008

Boundaries of the South Coast Air QualityBoundaries of the South Coast Air QualityM t Di t i t d F d l Pl i AM t Di t i t d F d l Pl i AManagement District and Federal Planning AreasManagement District and Federal Planning Areas

Mojave DesertSouthC t l

Kern County San Bernardino CountySanta Barbara County

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

jAir Basin Central

Coast Air Basin

South Coast

Los Angeles County

Ventura County

South Coast Air Basin Riverside County

Orange County

South CoastAir Quality Management District

SCAQMD Jurisdiction

Salton SeaAir Basin

San DiegoAir BasinSan Diego County

Imperial County

22

2

Demographic Projections and Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality TrendOzone Air Quality Trend

140%

160%

180%

n an

d

250

300

O3 8-HourDesign Value (ppb)

100%

120%

e in

Pop

ulat

ion

tiviti

es

150

200

Valu

e (p

pb)

40%

60%

80%

rcen

t Inc

reas

eA

ct

100 Des

ign

V

80

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200%

20%

1980

Pe

0

50

33

YEAR

O3 8-HourDesign Value

Population VMT Housing Units

2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. CitiesCompared to Other U.S. Cities

2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. CitiesCompared to Other U.S. CitiesCompared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities

Percent of Standard200%

150%

100%

50%

0%South Coast Houston Philadelphia New York Washington

D.C.Atlanta Chicago Phoenix

O ( ) O ( ) ( )

44

Ozone (8-hour) Ozone (1-hour) PM2.5 (Annual)

PM10 (Annual) CO (8-hour) NO2 (Annual)

2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration

55

PM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposureSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air Basin

PopulationPopulation--Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based onWeighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based on20002000--2002 AIRS Data2002 AIRS Data

Rest of CaliforniaRest of California18%18%

Rest of NationRest of Nation48%48%

South CoastSouth Coast82%82%

South CoastSouth Coast

66

South CoastSouth Coast52%52%

Source: California Air Resources Board Source: California Air Resources Board

Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment

SCAB Cases/Year due to PM2 5 *of PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effects

SCAB Cases/Year due to PM2.5

Premature Deaths 5,400Hospitalizations 2,400Asthma & Lower Respiratory 140,000p y

SymptomsLost Work Days 980,000yMinor Restricted Activity Days 5,000,000

77

*1999-2000 Air Quality Data

Source: California Air Resources Board

Emissions by Major CategoryEmissions by Major CategorySCAQMDSCAQMD

PM2.5, 2014 8-Hr Ozone, 2023PM2.5, 2014Area Sources

10%On-Road

39%Off-Road

41%

8 Hr Ozone, 2023

Point Sources7%

On-Road25%

Fugitive Dust

PointSources

8%

3%

(NO SO PM2 5) (VOC NO )

Area Sources26%

Off-Road41%

88

(NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)

Primary Emissions ResponsibilityPrimary Emissions Responsibilityby Agencyby Agency

Primary Emissions ResponsibilityPrimary Emissions Responsibilityby Agencyby Agencyby Agencyby Agencyby Agencyby Agency

PM2.5, 2014 8-Hr Ozone, 2023PM2.5, 2014

DistrictCARB56%

CARB57%

8 Hr Ozone, 2023

District20% District

23%

EPA EPA

(NO SO PM2 5) (VOC NO )

EPA24%

EPA20%

99

(NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)

VOC Annual Average Emissions VOC Annual Average Emissions 20142014

120107

100

120

78

5460

80

per d

ay

2824 23 22 22

4445

40

tons

23 22 22

0

20

1010

ConsumerProducts

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Light-DutyTrucks

Off-RoadEqupment

RecreationalBoats

PetroleumMarketing

ArchitecturalCoatings

Off-RoadRecreational

Heavy-DutyGasoline

Truck

Coatings &Related

Processes

NOx Annual Average Emissions NOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014

160147

120120

140

160

90

80

100

ons

per d

ay

48 47

3140

60

to

31 27 23 23 22

0

20

1111

Heavy-DutyDiesel Trucks

Off-RoadEquipment

Ships &Commercial

Boats

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Light-DutyTrucks

Heavy-DutyGasolineTrucks

RECLAIM Trains Aircraft ResidentialFuel

Combustion

SOx Annual Average Emissions SOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014

60

4850

60

30

40

per d

ay

12

20

tons

12

2 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.52

0

10

1212

Ships &Commercial

Boats

RECLAIM Aircraft PetroleumRefineries

Manufacturing& Industry

Combustion

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Service &CommercialCombustion

Light-DutyTrucks

ResidentialFuel

Combustion

Landfills

Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Annual Average EmissionsAnnual Average Emissions--20142014Annual Average EmissionsAnnual Average Emissions--20142014

25

2020

25

1515

per d

ay

76

5 4 4

910tons

5

3 3

4 4

0

5

1313

Paved RoadDust

CommercialCooking

ResidentialFuel

Combustion

Ships &Commercial

Boats

Construction &Demolition

Dust

Heavy-DutyDiesel Trucks

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Light-DutyTrucks

Wood & Paper RecreationalBoats

Goods MovementGoods MovementG thG th

Goods MovementGoods MovementG thG thGrowth Growth

20012001--20202020Growth Growth

20012001--2020202020012001 2020202020012001 20202020• 300 % increase in cargo

through the ports

• 170% increase in truck travel

• 150% increase in rail cargo

1414

Design PrinciplesDesign PrinciplesDesign PrinciplesDesign PrinciplesDesign PrinciplesDesign PrinciplesDesign PrinciplesDesign Principles

Expeditious Progress• Expeditious Progress• Meet Attainment Deadlines• Minimize Cost Impacts to Degree

Practicable• All Feasible Measure and Promote Fair

Share ResponsibilityS a e espo s b ty

1515

Control Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy Design• Step Ip

– Maximum controls of SOx and directly emitted PM2.5– Necessary NOx controls– Modest VOC controls to ensure progress toward

ozone attainment• Step IIStep II

– Continue NOx control programs– Necessary VOC reductions

• Attainment Demonstration– All grid cells

At or below the standards

1616

– At or below the standards

2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy

• District’s Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures

• State and Federal Control Measures– CARB’s Proposed Concepts– District Staff’s Recommended State and

Federal Stationary and Mobile Source Control MeasuresMeasures

• SCAG’s 2004 RTP/2006 RTIPL T St t

1717

• Long-Term Strategy

Plan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan Summary• Inclusive Control Emissions Reductions NeededInclusive Control

Strategy – 2015 PM2.5

2014 2023NO 203 383Attainment

– 2024 Ozone Attainment

NOx 203 (29%)

383 (76%)

VOC 59 116Attainment• 31 - Stationary

Source Measures

VOC 59 (11%)

116 (22%)

SOx 24Source Measures• 30 - Mobile Source

Measures

SOx 24 (56%)

---

PM2 5 14

1818

Measures PM2.5 14 (14%)

---

Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures

• New Development and Re-DevelopmentNew Development and Re Development Projects

• Consumer Products Certification and Use• Consumer Products Certification and Use RestrictionsF ilit M d i ti• Facility Modernization

• Backstop Rule for Ports and Port-Related Facilities

1919

Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures(cont)(cont)

• Cleaner Fuel in Ocean Going VesselsCleaner Fuel in Ocean Going Vessels Auxiliary and Main Engines

• Ocean-Going Vessels While At Berth At AOcean Going Vessels While At Berth At A California Port

• Off-Road Engine In-use StandardsOff Road Engine In use Standards– Local Opt-in Surplus Reductions

• In-Use On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel• In-Use On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

2020

Market Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive Programs

• Public/Private Investment to AcceleratePublic/Private Investment to Accelerate Fleet Turnover

Carol Moyer Program– Carol Moyer Program– AB923

Prop 1B– Prop 1B– Others

2121

Challenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the Horizon

• Revised 24-Hour PM2 5 StandardRevised 24 Hour PM2.5 Standard – 65 µg/m3 to 35 µg/m3

EPA designations finalized (12/2008?)– EPA designations finalized (12/2008?)– AQMP due three years following final

designationdesignation• Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone Standard

N t d d 0 075– New standard: 0.075 ppm– Final designations finalized (12/2010)

2222

Predicted Maximum 24Predicted Maximum 24--hour hour PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)

55

SO428%EC

Other12%

404550

EC9%

25303540

.5 u

g/m

3 Standard35ug/m3

OC15%

NO3152025

PM2

NH410%

NO326%

05

10

Speciated PM2.5

2323

2021

SummarySummarySummarySummarySummarySummarySummarySummary

• Concerted effort underway to implementConcerted effort underway to implement 2007 AQMP control strategy

• Federal partnership needed• Federal partnership needed• New air quality standards pose significant

h ll t tt i t b 2020 dchallenge to attainment by 2020 and beyond

2424