2008 05 white presentation at 39th konstanz seminar konstanz 7 may 2008 [mode de compatibilité]
TRANSCRIPT
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How the search for efficiency led to the current financial turmoil
William R WhiteHead, Monetary and Economic DepartmentHead, Monetary and Economic DepartmentBank for International Settlements, Basel
Presentation* at the 39th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and PolicyKonstanz, 7 May 2008
* Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily the views of the BIS
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Overview
� The search for efficiency
� The “Great Moderation”
� But financial imbalances have built up� But financial imbalances have built up
� “Headwinds” in history
� Current financial turbulence
� Conclusion
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The search for efficiency
� In the real economy
� In financial markets
� In the conduct of monetary policy� In the conduct of monetary policy
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Efficiency in the real economy
� Deregulation in industrial economies
� Productivity and IT
� Transition economies and globalisation� Transition economies and globalisation
� A disinflationary bias?
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Efficiency in financial markets
� Deregulation and technology
� Risk decomposition and risk management
� New products and new players� New products and new players
� Cheaper and better services
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Efficiency in financial markets
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Efficiency in the conduct of monetary policy
� More focus on near-term price stability
� More reliance on market processes
� More attention to communication� More attention to communication
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The “Great Moderation”
� Lower and less volatile inflation
� Higher and less volatile growth
� More resilience to shocks� More resilience to shocks
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But financial imbalances have built up
� 1, 2, 3, …?
� Efficiencies on the real side keep inflation down
� More efficient central banks conclude all is well� More efficient central banks conclude all is well
� More efficient financial markets overreach and imbalancesbuild up
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But financial imbalances have built up
� Credit growth
� Asset prices
� Sectoral imbalances� Sectoral imbalances
� Headwinds in history
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Credit growth
� Low real interest rates and the Wicksellian natural rate
� Rapid credit growth globally
� The particular case of China� The particular case of China
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Credit growth
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Credit growth
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Credit growth
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Asset prices: bond rates and corporate spreads
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Asset prices: sovereign spreads
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Asset prices: equity
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Asset prices: real estate
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Asset prices: implied volatility
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Sectoral imbalances
� Over extended consumer and household balance sheets
� Large external imbalances
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Sectoral imbalances
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Sectoral imbalances
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Headwinds in history
� Net private savings
� Credit cycles and financial stress
� “Boom-bust” cycles in historical perspective� “Boom-bust” cycles in historical perspective
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Headwinds in history
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Headwinds in history
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Boom-bust cycles in historical perspective
� Why history still matters
� Historical examples
� And all without inflation� And all without inflation
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Current financial turbulence: subprime as “catalyst”
� Implications of the securitisation revolution for participants
� Implications for the financial system as a whole
� Implications for the broader economy� Implications for the broader economy
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Implications for participants; households
� Easier and cheaper access to mortgage credit
� More options, especially variable rates
� Intertemporal smoothing BUT� Intertemporal smoothing BUT
� Choice requires more judgement
� More exposure to market swings
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Implications for participants; originators and banks
� Greater risk diversification
� Normally more sources of liquidity BUT
� Less need for “due diligence”� Less need for “due diligence”
� Difficulties in valuing complex products
� Failure to price liquidity adequately
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Implications for participants; originators and banks
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Implications for the financial system as a whole
� Risk transferred to those who can manage it OR
� To the most gullible and the most greedy?
� Everyone becomes suspect� Everyone becomes suspect
� And the demand for liquidity soars
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Implications for the financial system as a whole
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Implications for the financial system as a whole
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Implications for the broader economy
� Will current turmoil result in credit rationing?
� How vulnerable is the global economy?
� Is the global housing sector of particular concern?� Is the global housing sector of particular concern?
� And what about the dollar?
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Conclusion
� Current financial turbulence has deep roots
� The boy who cried wolf!
� How a “better” financial system can still be improved� How a “better” financial system can still be improved
� Implications for monetary and regulatory policy