2008 investor day - transalta · 2017-07-28 · 11. alberta power market - forward market prices...

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2008 Investor Day Steve Snyder President and CEO

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Page 1: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 1

2008 Investor Day

Steve SnyderPresident and CEO

Page 2: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 2

Forward looking statements

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the business and anticipated financial performance of TransAlta Corporation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the assumption was made. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are

subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause such differences include cost of fuels to produce electricity, legislative or regulatory developments, competition, global capital markets activity, changes in prevailing interest rates, currency exchange rates, inflation levels, unanticipated accounting or audit issues with respect to our financial statements or our internal control over financial reporting, plant availability, and general economic conditions in geographic areas where TransAlta Corporation operates. Given these uncertainties, the reader should not place undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is given as of this date. The material assumptions in making these forward-looking statements are disclosed in our 2007 Annual Report to shareholders and other disclosure documents filed with securities regulators.

Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.

Page 3: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 3

TransAlta value propositionVALUE PROPOSITIONConsistent Returns

Financial StrengthStrong balance sheetInvestment grade ratiosContracted cash flows

Low to Moderate Risk Business ModelDiversified fleetMix of contracts Environmental leadershipOperational excellence

Disciplined Capital AllocationCommitted to a dividend Balancing investments in growth with returning capital

Yield & GrowthExposure to growing power markets supports low double digit EPS growth Dividend payout of 60 -70%

GENERATION CAPACITY FACILITIES OWNED

Coal-fired plants 4,942 MW

Coal-fired plant 278 MW (IN DEVELOPMENT)

Hydro plants 807 MW

Gas-fired plants 2,423 MW

Wind-powered plants 154 MW

Wind-powered plant 228 MW (IN DEVELOPMENT)

Geothermal plants 164 MW

Corporate offices

Energy Marketing offices

CANADA

UNITED STATES

AUSTRALIAMEXICO

1.

On February 20, 2008, TransAlta announced the sale of its Mexican business (511 MW). The sale is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close by the end of the fourth quarter.

1

Page 4: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 4

CANADA

UNITED STATES

AUSTRALIA

FOCUSDrive top decile operations

Achieve 92% fleet availability

Short-term: 2008 - 2012Renewable growth in the west

WindGeothermal

Co-generation in AlbertaThermal upratesCCS PilotCO2 offsets

Medium-term: 2013 - 2015Co-generation in AlbertaAlberta thermal life cycle investmentSmall hydro storage optimizationCO2 offsets

Longer-term: 2016+Coal with CCSPartner in large hydroEquity share in nuclear

Achieve financial targetsIRR > 10%ROCE > 10%TSR > 10%

Long- term EPS growth driven by western

portfolio expansion

Geographic focus, contract and asset mix, and fuel selection dominate strategic choices

MEXICO

Strategic position: Delivering shareowner value by energizing the west

On February 20, 2008, TransAlta announced the sale of its Mexican business (511 MW). The sale is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close by the end of the fourth quarter.

Page 5: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 5

$0.25

$0.50

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e

Solid track record of results

COMPARABLE RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED 5 YEAR CUMULATIVE TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN

>80% TSR

EARNINGS PER SHARE CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS

22 - 25% CAGR

>10% ROCE2

2. As of Oct. 1, 2008

$0

$150

$300

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e

40 - 60% CF Growth

$950M

$850M

1. As of Oct. 1, 2008

1

$0.66$0.82

$1.16$1.31 $1.45

$1.60

Page 6: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 6

Strong EPS growth 2008 - 2012 fueled by higher electricity prices and recontracting

AB Prices$/MWh

PNW Prices$/MWh

EPSEstimates

2008 2012

Low Case $60 -

$70 $50 -

$55 $1.45 $2.00

Medium Case

$80 -

$90 $65 -

$75 $1.55 $3.00

High Case $100 -

$110 $80 -

$90 $1.60 $4.00

Higher commodity prices in Alberta and the PacNW drive EPS growth; scenarios assume no change in availability or contracting strategies

Page 7: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 7

Well positioned to take advantage of opportunities and deal with challenges

POSITIVESEnvironmental leadership

Rising prices

Recontracting of open length

Excellent growth opportunities

Financial strength / investment grade

PPA benefits

CHALLENGESEnvironmental uncertainties

Inflation

Demand risk

Credit market upheaval

Diversified, low-cost business model + operating excellence + financial strength = short and long-term success

Alberta is in need of additional supplyNorth America needs renewables

Page 8: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 8

2008 Investor Day

Dawn FarrellExecutive Vice PresidentCommercial Operations and Development

Page 9: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 9

Commercial Operations and Development mandate

Trading

Hedging

Contracting

Business development

Manage comm

ercial relationshipsDeli

ver b

ase t

radi

ng re

sults

Grow assets

Page 10: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 10

Executing on our strategy

Expand the current portfolio of assets

Add value to our base business

Sell assets when markets or projects fall short of expectations

Re-contract or reposition non-core and under-performing assets

In 2007 we said we would: In 2008 we delivered:

Announced 3 growth projects in Alberta for an additional 185 MW

Developed comprehensive organic growth plan

Improved base operationsImplemented 4 year ladder for asset hedgingSecured PRB coalImproved performance in real time and cash trading

Divesting of Mexico business

Assessing alternatives for adding value to Australia and Sarnia assets

Ongoing

Page 11: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 11

Alberta Power Market - Forward Market PricesCAD/MWh

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Sep 30, 2008 Market $7 Nymex $9 Nymex $11 Nymex

Alberta power prices expected to be strong

Reserve margins remain below 15%MWs

Low reserve margins will persist

Strong load growth dependent on oil sands expansion

New wind supply will create volatility and raise average prices

Transmission constraints limit significant new supply from traditional sources

Figures as of Sept.30.08

Steady price growth in various gas scenarios

Since 2004, power prices have risen > 50%

416 683 798 1,5812,636 3,171

554 666 893534

172210

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Existing Capacity (LHS) Cumulative Expected Additional Capacity (LHS)Supply Needed for 15% Reserve Margin (LHS) Reserve Margin (RHS)Peak Demand (LHS)

Alberta Power Market - Settled PricesCAD/MWh (2008 YTD)

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 12: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 12

PacNW prices expected to strengthen as load growth outpaces hydro supply

MWs

Load growth expected to exceed traditional hydro supply

Market will see increased reliance on natural gas

New supply is mostly windIntermittent nature will create volatilityVolatility will create higher average prices Reserve margins will declineThermal units will become more valuable

Figures as of Sept.30.08

Reserve margins are declining

Steady price growth in various gas scenarios

Since 2004, power prices have risen almost 50%

2,448 2,818 3,348 3,819 4,321 4,558937

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Existing Capacity Cumulative Expected Additional Capacity Reserve Margin Peak Demand

Mid-C Power Market - Forward Market PricesUSD/MWh

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Sep. 30, 2008 Market $7 Nymex $9 Nymex $11 Nymex

Mid-C Power Market - Settled PricesUSD/MWh (2008 YTD)

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 13: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 13

Alberta PPAs and long-term contracts provide the base of our contracted position

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Contracted Open

Alberta PPAs & LTC

Merchant

Total MWs

Hedge strategy targets an average of 90% contracted capacity

Page 14: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 1 4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Contracted To be contracted OpenApprox. target contracting level

Alberta & PACNW open merchant positions provide opportunity to capture upside of higher prices

Disciplined hedging strategy provides for more secure earnings and cash profile in a volatile and cyclical commodity market

Approx. levels only

2009Contracts

2010Contracts

2010Contracts

2011Contracts

2009Contracts

2010Contracts

2011Contracts

2009Contracts

2012Contracts

Merchant MWs

Capacity adjustments to AB Thermal plants at 90%, wind farms at 33%, and historical 10,500GWh production at Centralia

2009Contracts

Page 15: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 15

Trading provides market knowledge needed to optimize hedging strategy while also adding consistent revenue

Consistent gross margin returns year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter

Trading principles:

Majority of trades settle in less than 5 months

Focus on liquid markets

Strict controls and approval process

Strict reporting methodology

Low average VaR utilization rate

Gross Margin

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

Q104

Q204

Q304

Q404

Q105

Q205

Q305

Q405

Q106

Q206

Q306

Q406

Q107

Q207

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q208

$Millions

Actual 4 quarter rolling average

$M

Page 16: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 16

CANADA

UNITED STATES

AUSTRALIA

FOCUSShort-term: 2008 - 2012

Renewable growth in the westWindGeothermal

Co-generation in AlbertaThermal upratesCCS PilotCO2 offsets

Medium-term: 2013 - 2015Co-generation in AlbertaAlberta Thermal life cycle investmentSmall hydro storage optimizationCO2 offsets

Longer-term: 2016+Coal with CCSPartner in large hydroEquity share in nuclear

Long- term EPS growth driven by western

portfolio expansion

Geographic focus, contract and asset mix, and fuel selection dominate strategic choices

MEXICO

Western-focused growth plans fuel earnings expansion beyond 2012

On February 20, 2008, TransAlta announced the sale of its Mexican business (511 MW). The sale is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close by the end of the fourth quarter.

Page 17: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 17

Wind Cogen Hydro Geother mal TOTAL

Oct, 2008

AB 844 MW 665 MW Storage rights optimization

99 MW 1,608 MW

NB 83 MW 83 MW

SASK 99 MW 99 MW

CA 87 MW 87 MW

Total MW:

1,026 MW 665 MW 87 MW 99 MW 1,877 MW

Total Est:

$3.5 - $4.5B

Development pipeline leverages expertise and focuses on renewables and cogeneration

WIND CO-GEN HYDRO GEOTHL THERMAL

Page 18: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 18

LOCATION PROJECT CAPACITY FUEL TYPE RESOURCE & TURBINE CAPEX RANGE PPA / MW SITE CONTROL Applied Secured SECURED $/KW LTC

Alberta AB - 3 25 Wind In Progress $1,900 - $2,100Alberta AB - 4 250 Wind In Progress $1,900 - $2,100Alberta AB - 5 200 Wind In Progress $1,900 - $2,100Alberta Cogen - 3 75* Cogen In Progress $1,500 - $2,000 Partial

TOTAL MW : 550 TOTAL COST: $1.0 B - $1.5B2011

Projects in Earlier DevelopmentENVIRONMENTAL

PERMITSTARGET

COMMERCIALOPERATION DATE

201220142014

LOCATION PROJECT CAPACITY FUEL TYPE RESOURCE & TURBINE CAPEX RANGE PPA / MW SITE CONTROL Applied Secured SECURED $/KW LTC

Alberta Sundance 3 53 Coal $1,250 - $1,700Alberta Keephills uprate 23 Coal $1,250 - $1,700Alberta Keephills uprate 23 Coal $1,250 - $1,700Alberta AB - 1 69 Wind In Progress $1,900 - $2,100Alberta AB - 2 300 Wind In Progress $1,900 - $2,100Alberta Cogen - 1 535 Cogen In Progress $1,500 - $2,000 PartialAlberta Cogen - 2 55* Cogen In Progress $1,500 - $2,000 PPA/LTCSaskatchewan ANEDC 99 Wind In Progress $1,800 - $2,100 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 1 27* Wind In Progress $2,300 - $2,600 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 2 29* Wind In Progress $2,300 - $2,600 PPA/LTCNew Brunswick NB - 3 27* Wind In Progress $2,300 - $2,600 PPA/LTCCalifornia Black Rock 1* 87* Geothermal $4,000 - $5,000 PPA/LTC

TOTAL MW : 1,327 TOTAL COST: $2.5 B - $3.0B

Projects in Advanced Development

20122011

ENVIRONMENTAL PERMITS

TARGET COMMERCIAL

OPERATION DATE2012

201020102012

201220112010

20112013

2011

2008 - 2013 Development plan

* 50/50 with partners

* 50/50 with partners

LOCATION PROJECT CAPACITY FUEL TYPE RESOURCE & TURBINE TOTAL PROJECT PPA / MW SITE CONTROL Applied Secured SECURED COST LTC

New Brunswick Kent Hills 96 Wind $170 PPA/LTCAlberta Blue Trail 66 Wind $115Alberta Sundance 5 53 Coal $75Alberta Summerview II 66 Wind $123Alberta Keephills 3 225 Coal $815

TOTAL MW: 506 TOTAL COST: $1.3B2011

Projects AnnouncedENVIRONMENTAL

PERMITSTARGET

COMMERCIALOPERATION DATE

2008200920092010

Page 19: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 19

MW

Execution of current plans would result in renewables, natural gas and cogen being nearly half of our capacity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Coal Cogen Gas Hydro Wind Geothermal

Based on projects under construction and in advanced development; almost 50% of growth to come from renewables

Page 20: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 20

Competitive advantages

Commodity market intelligence via trading

+

Merchant asset contract diversity

+

Regulated security

Unique Model + Resource Combination + Proven Strengths

Brownfield sites

Wind options

Coal reserves

Water storage

Solid fuel storage

Access to natural gas

Transmission access

Operational excellence

Technical expertise

Market intelligence

Trading and hedging

Environmental leadership

Regulatory experience

Page 21: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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Commercial Operations outlook

Deliver on growth opportunities:

800 MW of wind in construction in the 2008 - 2013 timeframe87 MW of geothermal in construction by 2012Positioned for over 500 MW of cogeneration in Alberta by 2012

Sustain $50 to $70 million of trading gross margin

Reposition non-core assets for future opportunities

Page 22: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 22

2008 Investor Day

Will BridgeExecutive Vice President Generation Technology

Page 23: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 23

Generation Technology mandate

Optimize major maintenance investment and plant availability to deliver 92% fleet availability

Direct new build construction to deliver our schedule and cost targets

Create significant shareowner value through supplier relationships

Evaluate emerging technologies for CO2 capture

Implement life-cycle capital planning to economically prolong asset life

Page 24: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 2 4

Executing on our mandate

Projects under construction on time and on budget

Secured delivery of all equipment for growth, Centralia modifications and maintenance

Disappointed with the reliability challenges in 2008; corrective plans in place and being acted upon

CCS pilot project progressing; funding applied for and partnerships being established

Life cycle work advanced and validated by multiple external engineering firms

Page 25: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 25

Delivering on growth: Tracking progress and staying on schedule

All of the growth projects in execution are on track for both cost and schedule

Page 26: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 26

Delivering on growth: Managing ongoing capital costsProjects continue to be on budget and are being managed diligently to

deal with construction pressures in the Alberta market

(1)

Includes dragline and IDC

1

90% complete

85% of costs fixed

75% of costs fixed

75% of costs fixed;scheduled during 2009 planned outage

Managing pressuresrelated to Alberta labourmarket; minimal exposureto rising steel prices

Page 27: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 27

Lead Time

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Boiler Components Turbines Generators

2005 2006 2007 2008

Fabrication Shop Capacity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2005 2006 2007 2008

Boiler Components Turbines Generators

Capacity Limits

Market supply trends increase pressures on generators

Constrained capacity has built over three years affecting lead times

Global supply chain pressures are increasing lead times

A disciplined culture of planning is critical to manage supply issues

Weeks

Backlog

Page 28: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 28

Strategic relationships ease pressures on base business and growthAdvanced forecasting and planning is reducing costs and mitigating

equipment availability risks

Planning Approach:Five year maintenance planningContinuous life cycle development

Planning Approach:Five year growth planProgram approach to development of multiple wind, geothermal and coal uprate

opportunities

Strategic Relationships:Alstom – boiler maintenanceSiemens – instrumentation and controlsRWE – life cycle planning

Strategic Relationships:Wind turbines – VestasWind construction – key contractors in placeCoal uprate – Alstom, Hitachi California geothermal – under developmentCogeneration EPC – under development

Results:Managed lead timeSecured material and servicesCommodity management

Results:Wind turbines securedCompetitive construction costs for windSecured parts for uprate program

Base Business Growth Program

Page 29: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 29

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Coal Gas &Cogen

Hydro &Geothermal

Wind

Major maintenance scorecard

We are on track to deliver top decile performance from our fleet by 2010

TransAlta fleet availability

We have confidence our plan will deliver 92% fleet availability by 2010

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Adjusted for Centralia Boiler Modification

Top Decile

Target fleet availability

Availability mix

Page 30: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 30

Inflationary pressure is increasingCommodity and labour inflation affect our target major maintenance spend

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

2007 2008 2009 2010

Alberta Loaded Labour HRP Steel US $/Tonne Energy (Oil)

Oil = $70

Steel = $800/tonne

Oil = $115

Steel = $1,050/tonne

Page 31: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 31

Major maintenance outlookWe will continue to fight inflation while delivering on our production targets

86%$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2009 - 2010e

Investor Day 07 MM Plan

2009 - 2010e

2008eMM

Spend

Investor Day 08 MM Plan

2009 - 2010e87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

2007 2008

Revised Scope

Inflation

Total Major Maintenance Spend

$175 -

$200 M

$200 - $230 M

$190 - $200 M

Availability$M

+ $30 - $40 M

+ $10 - $15 M

Target after productivity offsets

Page 32: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 32

CCS Pilot: Project Pioneer

Project PioneerLargest commercial scale pilot in North AmericaFirst project in the world to have an integrated underground storage systemPotential to remove 90% of CO2 from emission stream

Key milestones aheadGovernment funding is critical Q1/09Additional industry partners will be brought into the project Q1/09Need to complete the engineering to finalize costs Q3/09

We are advancing Canada’s first large-scale project to retrofit a power plant to capture and store 1M tonnes of CO2 by 2012

Engineering and constructionFEEDDetailed engineering and procurementConstruction and commissioningApply for government funding

Regulatory approvals and consultation

Pipeline, storage and EORSite identification Test well and site testingStorage pipeline and facilities

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 33: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 33

Carbon capture and storage: The benefits of chilled ammonia technology

The winning technology will likely be the one with the lowest operating costs

Chilled Ammonia –

CO2Energy required to break bond

Amine –

CO2Energy required to break bond

262 BTU/LB 703 BTU/LBSource: U.S. Dept. of Energy National Energy Laboratory

Chilled Ammonia has a capture rate of

90%

Page 34: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

▀ 3 4

Life cycle development

Development of the life cycle plans for the Alberta coal fleet have advanced over the last year

A carbon solution is still the critical issue before investment decisions can be made

Return on investment is still expected to be >20%

Retained external engineering consultants: RWE Power International, Colt Worley Parsons and Alstom, directly supporting and validating our approach to dealing with plant risks

Advanced the plan flexibility to potentially span 3 maintenance cycles (or 9 years) in and around the 40-year mark

Risk

Plant Age (Years)

20 55 -

6040

• Electrical components• Rotors

High energy piping • Headers

• Electrical components

• Rotors

• Boilers

Plant infrastructure

• Electrical components• Rotors

Plant Lifecycle

• Electrical components• Rotors

High energy piping • Headers

• Electrical components

• Rotors

Risk

• Boilers

Plant infrastructure

• Electrical components• Rotors • Electrical

components• Rotors

High energy piping • Headers

• Electrical components

• Rotors

RiskRiskRisk

Plant Lifecycle

Plant Age (Years)

Plant Age (Years)

Plant Age (Years)

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Generation Technology outlook

Drive to top decile fleet availability

Successfully construct, commission and integrate our Kent Hills, Blue Trail, Sundance 5 Uprate, and Keephills 3 projects

Secure new strategic supply relationships to support growth plan

Finalize engineering, funding and partnerships for Project Pioneer

Continue to advance work on life cycle engineering and management

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2008 Investor Day

Richard LanghammerExecutive Vice PresidentGeneration Operations

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Generation Operations mandate

Gen Ops safely operates and maintains the plants and Alberta coal mines, providing shareowner value by sustaining and improving

availability at optimal cost

SafetyLowest Sustainable Cost

Alberta Coal MinesProduction

Delivery

PlantsHeat Rate

Availability (of Service)

Focus, discipline and delivery

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Executing on our mandate

Improve safety: Annual 10% reduction in our injury frequency rate

2008 target: 1.58, forecast: 1.25

Availability YTD: Alberta Thermal: 84.7%Balance of fleet: 90.0%

(adjusted for 88 day Centralia planned outage)

Improved performance monitoring: Operations Diagnostic Centre project in service in Q4 2008Integrate routine and turnaround maintenance execution

Lowest sustainable cost: Offsetting inflationInvesting in productivity

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Cost-benefit analysis indicates delivering 92% fleet availability has significant value

Improving performance while managing aging equipment requires:Restoring Alberta Thermal reliability by executing the planIncreasing investment in planned maintenance Improved performance monitoring and proactive management of plant processes and equipmentEffective planning and disciplined execution

Addressing 2008 Alberta Thermal challenges; remain on track to achieve 92% fleet availability by 2010

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e

Availability Target

AB Thermal

1% improvement= ~500 GWh

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Investing in productivity will pay for itself

Productivity investments are key to fighting inflation

Productivity investments compete with growth:2 year EBITDA payback or >15% unlevered IRRProjects can reduce costs or increase margin through automation, innovation and improved practices

2007 2008 2009 2010+ 2008 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

Australia Spare Generator $3M

Operations Diagnostic Center $10M $5M

AB Thermal Pulverizers $2M $4M

Other Projects $6M

Future Projects $5M $10M

Total Investment $5M $20M $10M $10M

Cumulative Benefits $6M $17 - 22M $20 - 40M

Initiation of PaybackInvestment

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▀ 41

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e

OM&A Inflation

Managing our OM&A to maintain the lowest sustainable cost

Focus on offsetting inflation

Optimizing costs and keeping our gains requires:Effective planning and disciplined executionDelivering on productivity investments

$/Installed MWh

OM&A costs have been adjusted for corporate allocations, CE Gen and Poplar Creek Base Plant, and normlalized to remove Mexico and Binghamton

1

1

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Alberta mines provide long-term strategic advantage

Long-term, relatively low cost resource; rights to 80 years of coal supply Managing mine cost pressures and inflation

Long-term mine plansInvestment in new equipment to improve productivity and removal of overburden2008 coal cost 6% higher per tonne due to escalating diesel vs. 20072009 coal cost increase to be similar to 2008

Expanding mine to support Keephills 3 and uprates

Low cost, mine mouth prairies operation; predictable movements in strip ratio

012345678

2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e

Strip Ratio

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▀ 43

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Centralia: On track to deliver improved predictability and long-term flexibility

Return to 10,500 GWhr

2006 – 2007Stopped miningLong-term rail and coal resources secured Safety & production modificationsExpanded rail & coal unloading facilities

2008Unit 2 boiler modifications completed8,800 - 9,100 GWh

2009Scope reduction Unit 19,800 - 10,200 GWh

2010Return to historic productionApproximately 10,500 GWh

Return to historic production levels 2010+

GWh

Total capital spend $180 -

$195 million

Page 44: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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Generation Operations outlook

Safely deliver 92% fleet availability at the lowest sustainable cost

Invest in planned maintenance and improved performance monitoring to reduce unplanned losses

Use productivity investments to offset inflationary pressures and improve performance

Deliver through effective planning and disciplined execution

Safety always

Page 45: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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2008 Investor Day

Brian BurdenExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

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Investment highlights

Financial strength and solid investment grade ratios

Low double digit EPS growth

Strong cash flow

Efficient and disciplined capital allocation

Driving near and long-term shareowner value

Page 47: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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Financial strategy creates near and long-term shareowner value

Maintain financial strength and flexibilityBalance sheet remains strong$2.2B in credit facilities provides ample liquidity; $900M available$300M U.S. EDC committed facility and $500M U.S. bond issue added in 2008Stable BBB credit rating maintained in volatile market

Maintain capital disciplineOn track to deliver $850 - $950M cash flow from operationsBalanced capital allocation

8% dividend increase; Board adopted 60 - 70% payout policy3 growth investments announced 4 million shares bought back and cancelled through NCIB

Divesting of Mexico business; plans to redeploy proceeds

Maintain focus on IRR, ROCE and TSR objectivesIRR on all growth projects meets or exceeds10% ROCE expected to exceed 10% in 2008TSR has been greater than 80% over the last 5 years

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Dec.31, 2007 Sept. 30, 20080%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2006 2007 2008e

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008e0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2005 2006 2007 2008e

CASH FLOW TO TOTAL DEBT

DEBT TO TOTAL CAPITAL

Strong balance sheet + stable credit ratios + solid liquidity = long-term financial stability

CASH FLOW TO INTEREST

Min. 25% Min. 4X

Max. 55%

LIQUIDITY$M

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$1.31$1.16

$0.82$0.66

10% 20%

$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.502004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009 - 2012e

$1.45

$1.60

15%

Base business expected to deliver low double digit earnings growth

Earnings per share

2004 - 2008CAGR

22 - 25%

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009 - 2012e

$777$675

$620$591

$300

$150

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,300

2009 - 2010e 2011 - 2012e

$850

$950

Cash flow growth amplified with recontracting and COD of new projects starting 2011

Cash flow from operations$M

2004 - 200840 - 60% Growth

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Balanced capital allocation expected to create consistent growth in shareowner value

PortfolioOptimization

Divest or improve non-core and

under-performing assets

Mexico -

PSA signed for USD $303.5M

Sarnia -

pursuing improved long-term contract

Australia -

potential for contract enhancements

Dividend Provide shareowners sustainable dividend growth

2008 annual dividend increased 8% to $1.08Board policy is to target a payout ratio of 60 - 70% of comparable EPS

GrowthInvestment

Projects must deliver unlevered, free cash, after tax IRR >10%:

506 MW currently under construction for a total cost of ~$1.3 billionCurrent growth plan provides opportunity to invest additional $2.5 -

$3.0 billion

Share Buyback

Provide shareowners incremental return of capital in absence of value-creating investment opportunities

Under the NCIB program, 4 million shares cancelled year-to-dateFuture share buyback to be balanced against growth opportunities, liquidity requirements and base business investment

Increasing capital efficiency is the focus of management and the BoardPRIORITY DIRECTION ACTION

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Sustaining capex supports operational objectives

$M 2008e 2009e 2010e

Sustaining $440 - 480 $300 - 350 $270 - 315Major Maintenance $110 -

120 $140 -

160 $130 -

150

Mine $100 -

110 $40 -

50 $40 -

50Routine $160 -

175 $105 -

120 $100 -

115 Centralia Fuel Blend $70 -

75 $15 -

20

Sustaining capital supports achievement of 92% fleet availability; includes inflation on equipment and higher labour costs

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Growth capex spend increased with new projects

Projects continue to track to schedule and budget

$M 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011eGrowth $193 $510 - 550 $415 - 450 $95 - 115 $5 - 15Keephills 3 $160 $320 -

330 $205 -

215 $90 -

100 $5 -

15

Kent Hills $29 $135 -

145

Blue Trail $20 -

25 $85 -

90

Sun 5 Uprate $4 $15 -

20 $50 -

60

Summerview II $20 -

30 $75 -

85 $5 -

15

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Cash flow from operations exceeds sustaining capex and announced growth projects

Asset divestitures supplement cash available

SOURCES OF CASH FLOW 2008 - 2012$5.3 Billion

USES OF CASH FLOW 2008 - 2012$5.3 Billion

$5,000

$300

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Divestiture

Cash Flow fromOperations

$1,040$130$380

$1,700

$1,100

$950

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Dividends

NCIB as of June 08Non Controlling Interest

Sustaining Capex

Announced GrowthCapex

Free Cash Flow Available

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Financial plan supports capital allocation priorities

Free Cash$950M

Balance Sheet Capacity$1.5 - $2.0B

Dividend Growth

ShareBuyback

1. Asset divestitures

2. Partnerships

3. Project financing

4. Equity post 2010(If required)

GROWTH PROJECTS$2.5 - $3.0B

Page 56: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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We can execute on our plan while maintaining investment grade ratios

CASH FLOW TO DEBT (%)

CASH FLOW TOINTEREST (X)

DEBT TO CAPITAL (%)

Given current balance sheet strength and market outlook, we have ample room to fund capital priorities and maintain key ratios

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2005 2006 2007 2008e0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008e0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2006 2007 2008eMin. of 25%

Min. of 4X

Max.of 55%

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Financial outlook remains strong

Strong earnings and cash flow growth 2008 - 2012

Financial strength maintained throughout commodity and credit cycles

Investment grade ratings support contracting and trading activities

Efficient capital allocation

Multi-source funding for growth

Focused on driving 10%+ IRR, ROCE, and TSR

Shareowners benefit from a financial strategy that provides strength and flexibility through commodity and credit cycles

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Appendix

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$M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Thereafter Total

TAUSecured Debentures 215 50 265

TACCDN MTN’s 205 225 251 68USD MTN’s 315 840 1,155

Other 40 33 25 26 26 214 363

Total 255 238 25 251 341 1,355 2,464

Minimal debt refinancing

Page 60: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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2008 Investor Day

Steve SnyderPresident and CEO

Page 61: 2008 Investor Day - TransAlta · 2017-07-28 · 11. Alberta Power Market - Forward Market Prices CAD/MWh. $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 20092010201120122013 Sep 30,

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Investment highlights

Strong balance sheet, solid financial outlook and low-moderate risk business model

Exposure to growing power markets and increasing prices with earnings upside from recontracting in the near- and long-term

A strong pipeline of growth opportunities in renewables and natural gas co-generation, and the financial strength and expertise to capitalize

A leader in addressing environmental challenges; Project PioneerCCS project a potential game changer

Disciplined and balanced capital allocation plan; driving 10%+ IRR, ROCE, and TSR to create near and long-term shareowner value