2008 non-geosynchronous orbits commercial space transportation forecast john sloan federal aviation...

2008 Non-GeosynchronousOrbits Commercial Space TransportationForecast

John Sloan

Federal Aviation Administration

Office of Commercial Space Transportation

May 16, 2008

Federal AviationAdministration

2NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

May 16, 2008

Federal AviationAdministration 2

Introduction

• The FAA Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement, other commercially sponsored payloads and commercially competed launch services for the International Space Station. • Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries • Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

NGSO GSO Total

1997 13 24 371998 19 19 381999 18 18 362000 9 20 292001 4 12 162002 4 20 242003 4 13 172004 2 13 152005 3 15 182006 5 15 202007 12 12 242008 est. 11 22 33


May 16, 2008


New to the 2008 NGSO Forecast

• Iridium 72 satellites (66 plus 6 spares), 12 total launches • Current revenue is good, picking up some Globalstar customers,

potentially more revenue from hosted payloads, and will select a satellite manufacturer in Spring 2009.

• New category: Orbital Facility Assembly and Services (OFAS) • Regular commercial supply flights for the International Space Station

• Estimate based on: two launch providers, upmass capability of SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus, and the upmass model in the April 2008 NASA Request for Proposals document.

• Starts at 2, increasing to 4-5 launches per year• COTS demonstration launches • Bigelow Aerospace placeholder

• Bigelow will wait for a commercial vehicle capable of carrying people to orbit before launches of habitable modules.

• Could appear in a future forecast for launches of:• Modules: Sundancer, a node/bus, and two BA-330 habitats• Supply misions


May 16, 2008


Satellite Forecast NGSO

276 total satellites, increase of 45% vs. 2007 forecast of 191 Telecommunications is 53% of satellite market, Science/Other is 28%, Orbital Facility Assembly and Services is 10%, and Commercial Remote Sensing 9%.


May 16, 2008


Launch Demand Forecast NGSO

• Average increase of 3 launches per year vs 2007 forecast (from 8 to 11)• All new launches were Medium-Heavy class (8.1 per year) • No new small launches in 2008 compared to 2007 (still 3 per year)

112 launches

Increase of 38% compared to 2007 forecast vs. 81 in 2007 vs. 69 in 2006 vs. 64 in 2005 vs. 51 in 2004


May 16, 2008


Sector Breakout2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TOTAL Avg

SatellitesLittle LEO Telecom 8 2 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 2.8

Big LEO Telecom 0 12 12 12 12 0 24 24 24 0 120 12.0Commercial Remote Sensing 6 2 0 2 1 0 3 7 2 1 24 2.4

Orbital Facility Assembly and Services 0 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 4 3 28 2.8

International Science/Other 10 9 11 7 9 6 6 6 6 6 76 7.6

Total Satellites 24 27 37 29 25 9 38 41 36 10 276 27.6

Launch DemandMedium-to-Heavy Vehicles 5 10 6 6 10 4 13 12 11 4 81 8.1

Small Vehicles 6 2 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 3 31 3.1

Total Launches 11 12 11 11 12 6 15 14 13 7 112 11.2

Satellites SmallMediumto Heavy Total

Telecommunications 148 4 20 24

International Science/Other

76 25 19 44

Commercial Remote Sensing

24 2 14 16

Orbital Facility Assembly and Services

28 0 28 28

Total 276 31 81 112

Launch DemandTelecommunications is half the market (148 satellites) but only 21.5% of the launch demand – multiple-manifesting.Science is the only sector to decline from 2007: 44 launches in 2008 vs. 52 launches in 2007 -- mostly because of transfer of COTS launches into new OFAS category OFAS schedule could change based on contract selection and technical readiness.


May 16, 2008


Mass Distribution for Near-Term Satellites

• Iridium Next satellite mass is to be determined

• First generation satellites weigh 640 kg each

• Could launch 6 satellites at a time (72 total satellites)

• ORBCOMM Generation 2 mass estimate 130-150 kg each

• Could launch 6 satellites at a time (order of 18 satellites, up to 48 total)

2008 2009 2010 2011 TotalPercent of

Total

< 200 kg(< 441 lbm)

16 2 12 6 36 33%

200-600 kg(441-1323 lbm)

2 1 7 3 13 12%

601-1200 kg(1324-2646 lbm)

4 16 14 13 47 44%

> 1200 kg(> 2646 lbm)

2 4 3 3 12 11%

Total 24 23 36 25 108 100%


May 16, 2008


NGSO Near-Term Identified ManifestService Type 2008 2009 2010 2011

Commercial Remote GeoEye 1* - Delta 2 TanDEM X - Dnepr GeoEye 2 - TBASensing RapidEye 1-5 - Dnepr WorldView 2 - Delta 2 EROS C - TBA

International Science THEOS* - Dnepr CASSIOPE - Falcon 9 Kompsat 5 - Dnepr Microscope - TBARazakSAT* - Falcon 1 Cryosat 2 - Rockot MoonLite - PSLV EnMap - TBADubaiSat 1 - Dnepr SERVIS 2 - Rockot SWARM 1-3 - TBADEIMOS Kompsat 3 - TBAUK DMC 2AprizeStar 3-4GOCE - RockotSMOS - Rockot

Telecommunications ORBCOMM (5)* - Cosmos Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2 Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2 Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2ORBCOMM CDS 3* Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2 Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2 Globalstar (6) - Soyuz 2

ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBAORBCOMM (6) - TBA

Dragon COTS Demo 1- Falcon 9

Dragon COTS Demo 3- Falcon 9 ISS Re-supply - TBA

Dragon COTS Demo 2- Falcon 9

Cygnus COTS Demo - Taurus II ISS Re-supply - TBA

Other SAR Lupe 4 - Cosmos Cosmo-Skymed 4 - TBA Cascade 1-4 - Falcon 1 SSC TBA - Falcon 1SAR Lupe 5 - Cosmos PRISMA 1 and 2 - Dnepr Sirius FM-6 - Proton MCosmo-Skymed 3 - Delta 2

Total Payloads 24 23 36 25

Total Launches 11 12 11 10

FAA Realization Launches 8-10

* Carryover from 2007Note: Chart includes only those payloads announced as of May 2, 2008Does not include secondary payloads that do not generate launch demand

Orbital Facility Assembly and Services


May 16, 2008


Notes and Trends

• Russia still leads with about 63% capture of the near-term NGSO launch services market (2008-2011).

• Environmental first stage debris concerns cited by Uzbekistan have delayed Russian Dnepr launch of Thailand’s THEOS remote sensing satellite. • Dnepr could relocate back to Baikonur from Yasny (Domborovsky)

launch site. • Only one delayed launch from 2007 did not carryover into 2008.

• South Africa’s SumbandillaSat was on Russian Shtil. • South Korea plans first launch of KSLV small vehicle by end of 2008. • European Satellite Radio added to forecast.

• Has been developing slowly, Ondas Media (based in Madrid) leads competition.

• Impact of possible XM and Sirius satellite radio merger is unclear so the forecast leaves previous Sirius NGSO plans in place.

• No new telecommunications systems to compete against ORBCOMM, Iridium and Globalstar.


May 16, 2008


Historical Launches and Forecast 2008-2017

Sustained out-year activity in 2008 forecast

2008 non-geosynchronous orbits commercial space transportation forecast john sloan federal aviation...

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