2009 natural catastrophe year in review webinar …insured u.s. winter storm losses, 1980 - 2009...
TRANSCRIPT
2009 NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW WEBINAR
JANUARY 21 2010JANUARY 21, 2010
Agenda
Welcome/IntroductionTerese RosenthalTerese Rosenthal
U.S. Natural Catastrophe UpdateC l H ddCarl Hedde
Global Catastrophe UpdateAngelika Wirtz
Financing Catastrophic Losses in the Midst of Financial Catastrophe Dr. Robert Hartwig
Questions and Answers
© 2010 Munich Re 2Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Question and Answer Process
At the conclusion of theAt the conclusion of the presentation, you will have an opportunity to ask
tiquestions.
To ask a question, please q , pdial 1 4 on your phone.
An operator will facilitateAn operator will facilitate your participation.
© 2010 Munich Re 3Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Carl HeddeHead of Risk AccumulationMunich Reinsurance AmericaMunich Reinsurance America
© 2010 Munich Re 4
MR NatCatSERVICEOne of the world‘s largest databases on natural catastrophes
The database today:
From 1980 until today all loss events; for USA and selected countries in Europe all losscountries in Europe all loss events since 1970
Retrospectively all great disasters since 1950disasters since 1950
In addition, all major historical events starting from 79 AD –eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3,000 historical data sets)
Currently more than 27,000
© 2010 Munich Re 5
y ,events
© 2010 Munich Re 5
2009 HeadlinesU.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Insured losses in the United States in 2009 totaled $11.1 billion –much lower than the 1999 to 2008 average loss of $24 5 billion (inmuch lower than the 1999 to 2008 average loss of $24.5 billion (in 2009 Dollars)
Near-record insured losses due to thunderstorms
Two tropical storms, but no hurricanes, made landfall in the U.S.: Claudette and Ida
Large wildfires in Southern California, but damages were limited
Winter storm insured losses lowest in eight years
Spring floods in the Northern Plains break historical river level records
© 2010 Munich Re 6
Natural Catastrophe Losses in the U.S. 2009U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Fatalities Estimated Overall L (US $ )
Estimated Insured L (US $ )Losses (US $m) Losses (US $m)
Tropical Cyclones 8 Minor MinorAs of January 2010
Severe Thunderstorms
21 13,710 9,625†
Winter Storms 70 1,600 770†
Wildfires 6 280 185Wildfires 6 280 185
Floods 22 1,600 232
© 2010 Munich Re 7Sources: (unmarked) - MR NatCatSERVICE, † - Property Claims Services (PCS)
U.S. Significant Natural Catastrophes in 2009$1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Date Event Est. Economic Losses (US $m)
Estimated Insured Losses (US $m)( ) ( )
January 26 - 28 Winter Storm 1,100 565†
F b 10 13 Th d t 2 500 1 350†February 10 - 13 Thunderstorms 2,500 1,350†
March 25 - 26 Thunderstorms 1,500 995†
March – April Flood 1,000 75
April 9 -11 Thunderstorms 1,700 1,150†
June 10 -18 Thunderstorms 2,000 1,100†
July 20 -21 Thunderstorms 1,000 800†
© 2010 Munich Re 8Sources: (unmarked) - MR NatCatSERVICE, † - Property Claims Services (PCS)
As of January 2010
U.S. Significant Natural Catastrophes, 1950 – 2009Number of Events ($1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities)
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
There were 7 Significant Natural Catastrophes in the United States in 2009.
© 2010 Munich Re 9Sources: MR NatCatSERVICE
Losses from U.S. Significant Natural Catastrophes 1950 – 2009, ($1 billion economic loss and/or 50 fatalities)
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Overall losses from U.S. significant catastrophes totaled $10.8 billion; insured losses totaled $5.9 billion
, ( )
© 2010 Munich Re 10Sources: MR NatCatSERVICE
Insured Losses due to Weather Perils in the U.S.1980 – 2009 (Tropical Cyclone, Thunderstorm, and Winter Storm only)
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Insured losses due to weather perils in the U.S. in 2009 were the highest on record for a year without a hurricane landfall.
( p y y)
© 2010 Munich Re 11Sources: MR NatCatSERVICE, Property Claims Services
U.S. Tropical Cyclones 2009
© 2010 Munich Re 12Photo: NOAA
U.S. Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in 2009
Claudette
Ida
© 2010 Munich Re 13Source: NOAA
Ida
U.S. Tropical Cyclones 2009
Tropical Storm Claudette
Landfall on Santa Rosa Island, Florida on August 17
Sustained winds at landfall of 50 mph
Mostly minor infrastructure damage
Tropical Storm Ida
Landfall on Gulf Shores, Alabama on November 10
Sustained winds at landfall of 45 mphp
Minimal damage as a tropical storm in the Gulf, but later became a powerful winter storm that caused over $200 m in damage along Mid Atl ti C t
© 2010 Munich Re 14
Mid-Atlantic Coast
Number of U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones1900 - 2009
U.S. Tropical Cyclones 2009
Two tropical cyclones made landfall in the U.S. in 2009, neither at hurricane intensity.
© 2010 Munich Re 15Source: NOAA
Insured U.S. Tropical Cyclone Losses, 1980 - 2009 U.S. Tropical Cyclones 2009
The current 5-year average (2005-2009) insured tropical cyclone loss is $23.7 bn.
© 2010 Munich Re 16Sources: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE, NFIP
Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
© 2010 Munich Re 17Source: FEMA
Insured U.S. Thunderstorm Losses, 1980 – 2009 Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
Five-year average losses now stand at a record $7.2 billion a year.
Thunderstorm losses in 2009 were only $900m short of 2008’s record loss.
© 2010 Munich Re 18Sources: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE
U.S. Tornado Count, 2009 compared to 2004 - 2008Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
© 2010 Munich Re 19Sources: NOAA, SPC
Insured U.S. Winter Storm Losses, 1980 - 2009 Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
Winter storm losses in 2008 were the lowest in 8 years, and $600 million below average.
2009 Total: $770 million
© 2010 Munich Re 20Sources: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE
Insured California Wildfire Losses, 1980 - 2009Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
California has averaged $500 million in Wildfire losses per year since 1990.
2009 Total: $140 million
© 2010 Munich Re 21Sources: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE
Red River Flood of Spring 2009Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
2 fatalities - 200 people injuredinjured
8,000 properties flooded
2,000,000 acres of agricultural land floodedagricultural land flooded. 90,000 head of livestock killed
Estimated economic andEstimated economic and insured losses of $1 billion and $75 million, respectively
Affected States: Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota
City of Fargo experienced record water levels and floods beyond the 500 year
© 2010 Munich Re 22
floods beyond the 500 year floodplain
U.S. Flood Losses, 1980 – 2009 Other U.S. Natural Catastrophes in 2009
Insured losses from the major floods of 2009 are estimated to be $232 million.
ars)
n, 2
009
Dol
laos
s ($
bill
ion
Lo
© 2010 Munich Re 23
Year
Sources: Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE
GLOBAL NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE
ANGELIKA WIRTZHEAD OF MUNICH RE NATCAT SERVICE
© 2010 Munich Re 24Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Natural catastrophes 2009Worldmap
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Costliest disaster 2009Winter Storm Klaus: US$ 3,000m insured lossesCostliest disaster 2009Winter Storm Klaus: US$ 3,000m insured losses
Africa: Severe floodsAfrica: Severe floods>450 deaths>450 deaths
Deadliest disaster 2009EQ Indonesia: 1,200 deathsDeadliest disaster 2009EQ Indonesia: 1,200 deaths
Geophysical events
Australia: Deadliest year in historyWildfires: 173 deaths, Heat wave: 347 deathsAustralia: Deadliest year in historyWildfires: 173 deaths, Heat wave: 347 deaths
Significant natural catastrophes (selection)
Great natural catastrophes: 2009 no event met the requirement “Great natural
2009: 850 natural catastrophesp y
(Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption)Meteorological events(Storm)Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
© 2010 Munich Re 25Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
2009 no event met the requirement Great naturalcatastrophe”
( , )Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global natural disastersThe figures of the year 2009
The figures of the year 2009 10-year average in the period 1999 2008period 1999-2008
Number of events 850 770
Overall losses (US$m, 2009 50 000 115 000Overall losses (US$m, 2009 values)
50,000 115,000
Insured losses (US$m, 2009 values)
22,000 36,000)
Fatalities 10,500 76,000
© 2010 Munich Re 26Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global natural disasters The five largest natural catastrophes of 2009 - Ranking by insured losses
Date Country/Region Event Fatalities Overall losses
Insured losseslosses
US$mlossesUS$m
23−25.1.2009 Europe Winter Storm Klaus 26 5,100 3,000
10−13.2.2009 USA Severe storms, tornadoes 15 2,500 1,350
23−27.7.2009 East and West Europe
Severe storms, hailstorms 11 1,800 1,200p
9−11.4.2009 USA Severe storms, tornadoes 9 1,700 1,150
10−18.6.2009 USA Severe storms, tornadoes 1 2,000 1,100
© 2010 Munich Re 27Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global natural disasters Percentage distribution worldwide ordered by type of event 2009
850 Loss events850 Loss events 10,500 Fatalities10,500 Fatalities
7%11% 18%10%
43%39%31%
41%
Overall losses* US$ 50bn Overall losses* US$ 50bn Insured losses* US$ 22bnInsured losses* US$ 22bn
31%
12%
17%
7% 4%6%
8%
*in 2009 values64% 82% *in 2009 values
© 2010 Munich Re 28Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global natural catastrophes 2009 Percentage distribution per continent
7%60% 28%
<1%
<1%
5%<1%
Insured losses:US$ 22bn
© 2010 Munich Re 29Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009Overall and insured losses with trend
300
200
250
150US$
bn
50
100
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Overall losses (in 2009 values) Insured losses (in 2009 values)
© 2010 Munich Re 30Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Overall losses (in 2009 values) Insured losses (in 2009 values)
Trend insured lossesTrend overall losses
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Natural catastrophes 2009-2010Worldmap
© 2010 Munich Re 31Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Haiti Earthquake
As insurance penetration is far below 1% in Haiti, insured loss is likely to be small.
However, some facultative risks with high insured values have been hit and could i fl th ll k t l i ifi tlinfluence the overall market loss significantly.
The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance facility (CCRIF) will certainly be activated, resulting in a maximum payout of 7.7 mil. USD.ac a ed, esu g a a u payou o US
The CCRIF made two payouts in its first year, both as a result of the magnitude 7.4 earthquake which shook the eastern Caribbean on 29th November. The St. Lucian government received US$418,976 while the Dominican government received US$528,021. The monies will go towards post earthquake recovery efforts in both these nationspost-earthquake recovery efforts in both these nations.
© 2010 Munich Re 32Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Question and Answer Process
At the conclusion of theAt the conclusion of the presentation, you will have an opportunity to ask
tiquestions.
To ask a question, please q , pdial 1 4 on your phone.
An operator will facilitateAn operator will facilitate your participation.
© 2010 Munich Re 33Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
Economic Implications of Catastrophe Losses in 2009:Catastrophe Losses in 2009:Financing Catastrophic Loss A id Fi i l C t t hAmid Financial Catastrophe
2009 Natural Catastrophe Review2009 Natural Catastrophe ReviewJanuary 21, 2010
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & EconomistInsurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038
Tel: 212.346.5520 ♦ Cell: 917.453.1885 ♦ [email protected] ♦ www.iii.org
Decade of Disaster:Relative Quiet of 2009 Belies Qthe Truth of the Past Decade
35
US Insured Catastrophe Losses
$100
.0$120
$100 Billion CAT Year is Coming Eventually
2009 CAT
($ Billions)
2000 A D d f Di t
$61.
9
$
$80
$100 2009 CAT Losses
Were Down 48% though
Q3 from $21 1B 2008
2000s: A Decade of Disaster2000s: $193B (up 117%)
1990s: $89B
3 4 0.1
3
$26.
5
2.9 $2
7.5
$
2
$26.
0
1.1
5 $22.
9
16.9
$40
$60 $21.1B 2008$8
.3
$7.4
$2.6 $1
0
$8.3
$4.6
$5.9 $1 $9. 2
$6.7 $11
$7.5
$2.7
$4.7
$5.5 $
$0
$20
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*20??
2009 CAT Losses Were Less than Half of 2008. 2005 Was by Far the Worst Year Ever for Insured Catastrophe
Losses in the Decade of the 2000s Were More than Double the 1990s, But the Worst Has Yet to Come
36
* 2009 figure is Munich Re estimate.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
But the Worst Has Yet to Come
Top 12 Most Costly Disastersin US History(Insured Losses, 2009, $ Billions)
$45 3$50
$23 8
$45.3
$30$35$40$45$50
In 2008, Ike Became the 4th Most Expensive Insurance Event and 3rd Most Expensive
Hurricane in US History Arising from About 1.35MM Claims
$11.3 $11.3 $12.5
$22.8 $23.8
$8.5$8.1$7.3$6.2$5.2$4 2$10$15$20$25$ About 1.35MM Claims
$5.2$4.2
$0$5
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo(1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Northridge(1994)
Ike(2008)*
9/11Attacks(2001)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
(2001)
8 of the 12 Most Expensive Disasters in US History Have Occurred Since 2004;
8 f th T 12 Di t Aff t d FL
37
* PCS estimate as of August 1, 2009.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.
8 of the Top 12 Disasters Affected FL
Financial PerformanceFinancial Performance
Lower Catastrophe Losses, Easing of Crisis Bolstered Results
38
P/C Net Income After Taxes1991–2009:Q3 ($ Millions)
,496
65,7
77
$70 000
$80,000 2005 ROE*= 9.4%2006 ROE = 12.2%
Improved financial market conditions, lower
catastrophe losses improved profitability in 2009
19
$62$6
44,1
55
501
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000 2007 ROE = 10.9%2008 ROE = 0.3%2009:Q3 ROAS1 = 4.5%
profitability in 2009
78 ,316
0,59
8
$24,
404 $3
6,8 1
$30,
773
1,86
5
$30,
029
64
$ 4
0,55
9
$38,
5
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$14,
17
$5,8
40
$19 ,
$10,
870 $20 $ $2
3,04
6
2,37
9
$16,
1
$20
$10,000
$20,000
$ $ 2
-$6,970-$10,000
$0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09:Q3* ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 4.5% ROAS for 2008 and 5.9% for the first 9 months of 2009. 2009:Q3 net income was $20.5 billion excluding M&FG.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute 39
ROE: P/C vs. AllIndustries1987–2009:Q3*
20%P/C Profitability is
Cyclical and Volatile Katrina,
(Percent)
15%
y at a,Rita, Wilma
5%
10%
Hugo
Sept. 11
0%
5%g
Andrew
Northridge
Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years
4 Hurricanes
Financial C i i * Hi h
Easing of C i i L
-5%87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09:Q3
US P/C Ins rers All US Ind stries
Northridge Crisis*, High CATs
Crisis, Lower CATs
40
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 and 2009 through Q3.Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute.
US P/C Insurers All US Industries
Strength of Recent HardMarkets by NWP Growth
25%
(Percent)1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
15%
20%
5%
10%
0%
5%
Net Written Premiums Fell 1.0% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 1 4% in 2008 and 4 5%
-10%
-5%
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Q3
Decline Since 1943) by 1.4% in 2008, and 4.5% through 2009:Q3, the First 3-Year Decline Since
1930-33 During the Great Depression
41
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09:Q3
Shaded areas denote “hard market” periodsSources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2009:Q31
$64.0$70
($ Billions)
$42.8$47.2
$52.3
$44.4 $45.3$48.9
$59.4$55.7$58.0
$51.9$56.9
$50
$60
$35.4 $36.0$31.4
$26.2
$20
$30
$40
$0
$10
$20
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05* 06 07 08 09:Q3
Investment Gains Fell by 51% In 2008 Due to Lower Yields,Poor Equity Market Conditions. Through Three Quarters in 2009,
Write do ns Were Offset b Unreali ed Capital GainsWrite-downs Were Offset by Unrealized Capital Gains1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.* 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B.Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 42
Financial Strength & RatingsFinancial Strength & Ratings
Industry Remained Strong in 2009 Despite Crisis
43
P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2009p
No P/C Insurer or Reinsurer Failed Because of the Financial Crisis in 2008/2009, Whereas 165
Banks Failed Over the Same Period 5 of the 11 are Florida
9 50 855
60 58
9 50
60
70 Banks Failed Over the Same Period 5 of the 11 are Florida companies (1 of these
5 is a title insurer)34 36
4931
345 48
419 31
49 547
35
40
50
1512 11 13 12
19
16 14 13
3 2916
123
18 19 1814 15
11
20
30
8 71 9 9 9 71
5
0
10
69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09p
0
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 44
P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2009p
115
120
1.8
2.0Combined Ratio after Div P/C Impairment Frequency
110
115
Rat
io
1.2
1.4
1.6
Impair
100
105
Com
bine
d
0.6
0.8
1.0
rment R
ate
90
95
0 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2009 estimated impairment rate rose to 0.36% up from a near record low of 0.23% in 2008 and the 0.17% record low in 2007; Rate is still less than one-half the 0.79% average since 1969
90
69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09* 0.0
g
Impairment Rates Are Highly Correlated With Underwriting Performance
45*Combined ratio of 101.7 is through Q3:09; 0.36% 2009 impairment rate is III estimate based on preliminary A.M. Best data.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
p g y gand Reached Record Lows in 2007/08
Summary of A.M. Best’s P/C Insurer Ratings Actions in 2009
Despite financial market turmoil and a soft market in 2009 76% of ratings actions
11 9%
2009, 76% of ratings actions by A.M. Best were
affirmations; just 2.9% were downgrades
and 3.2% were upgradesOther – 216
3.8%2.4%
11.9%75.7%
Affirm – 1,375
I iti l 44Under Review – 69
2.9%3.2%
Downgraded – 53
Upgraded – 59Initial – 44
P/C Insurance is by Design a Resilient Business. The Dual Threat of Financial Disasters and Catastrophic Losses
46
.Source: A.M. Best.
pAre Anticipated in the Industry’s Risk Management Strategy
Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2008
Deficient Loss Reserves and Inadequate Pricing Are the Leading Cause of Insurer Impairments, Underscoring the Importance of Discipline.
Investment Catastrophe Losses Play a Much Smaller Role
3.7%4 2%
Investment Catastrophe Losses Play a Much Smaller Role
Reinsurance Failure
Mi
Sig. Change in Business
4.2%9.1%
7 0% 38.1% Deficient Loss Reserves/In adequate Pricing
Investment Problems
Misc.
7.0%
7.9%
38.1% In-adequate Pricing
Affiliate Impairment
7.6%8.1% 14.3%
Catastrophe Losses
47Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2008 Impairment Review, Special Report, Apr. 6, 2008
Rapid GrowthAlleged Fraud
Capital/Policyholderp ySurplus (US)
Improving Financial Markets, Lower CAT Losses are Restoring Capacity
48
Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2009:Q3($ Billions)
$521 8 $$540
Capacity Peaked at $521.8 as of 9/30/07
Capacity as of 9/30/09 was just 5.9% below the 2007 peak and will likely
fully recover in 2010
$487.1$496.6
$512.8$521.8
$478.5$463 0
$490.8$505.0
$515.6$517.9
$480
$500
$520fully recover in 2010
$455.6$437.1
$463.0
$420
$440
$460
$380
$400
06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3
Declines Since 2007:Q3 Peak08:Q2: -$16.6B (-3.2%) 08:Q3: $43 3B ( 8 3%)
09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: $58 8B ( 11 2%)
49Source: ISO, AM Best.
08:Q3: -$43.3B (-8.3%) 08:Q4: -$66.2B (-12.9%)
09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%)09:Q3: -$31.8B (-5.9%)
Ratio of Insured Loss to Surplus for Largest Capital Events Since 1989*
18%
The Financial Crisis at its Peak Ranks as the Largest
“Capital Event” Over
(Percent)
13.8%
16.2%
15%
18% pthe Past 20+ Years
9.6%
6.9%
10.9%
6 2%
9%
12%
3.3%
6.2%
3%
6%
0%6/30/1989Hurricane
Hugo
6/30/1992HurricaneAndrew
12/31/93NorthridgeEarthquake
6/30/01 Sept.11 Attacks
6/30/04Florida
Hurricanes
6/30/05Hurricane
Katrina
FinancialCrisis as of3/31/09**
50
* Ratio is for end-of-quarter surplus immediately prior to event. Date shown is end of quarter prior to event** Date of maximum capital erosion; As of 9/30/09 (latest available) ratio = 5.9%Source: PCS; Insurance Information Institute
Hugo Andrew Earthquake Hurricanes Katrina 3/31/09**
Catastrophe Bonds: Risk Capital Issuance
$6 996$8,000
$4 693
$6,996
$
$6,000
$7,000
$4,693
$2,686$3,392
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$633 $846 $985 $1,139 $1,143
$1,991$1,730$1,220$967
$1,000
$2,000
$ ,
$097 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 09*
Catastrophe bond risk capital issuance plunged by 62% when credit market
51Source: Buy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute.
Catastrophe bond risk capital issuance plunged by 62% when credit market turmoil spread in 2008 but was up 26% in 2009 as markets improved
TerrorismTerrorism
Terrorism Is an Issue that Will Be More in the News in 2010 and in the Minds of Insurance Buyers,
52
Policymakers, Regulators
Terrorism: Insurance Concerns Resurface
Reasons Why Concerns Are Mounting in 2010
Perception of U.S. vulnerability is risingThwarted Christmas Day attack by “underwear bomber”Increased anti-terror efforts, including full-body scansEffort by government to appear more vigilant, preparedTrials of Guantanamo 9/11 suspects in Manhattan Court
NYC says it will need $200+ million each year for securityRise of groups such al Qaeda in the Arabian PeninsulaU S military surge in Afghanistan operationsU.S. military surge in Afghanistan operationsMost buyers, producers have not thought about coverage issues recentlyMany may have questions about nature adequacy of coverage
53
Many may have questions about nature, adequacy of coverage
Insurance Information Institute Online:
www iii orgwww.iii.org
Thank you for your timeThank you for your timeand your attention!
54
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To ask a question, please dial 1 4 on your phone.
An operator will facilitate your participation.y p p
© 2010 Munich Re 55Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
More Information
Press InquiriesTerese RosenthalPhone: 609-243-4339E-mail: [email protected]
© 2010 Munich Re 56Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2010
THANK YOU FOR PARTICIPATING IN TODAY’S WEBINAR.
2009 NATURAL CATASTROPHE YEAR IN REVIEW WEBINAR © 2010Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. All rights reserved. The Munich Re America name is a mark owned by Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. The Munich Re name and mark is owned by The Munich Re name and mark is owned by Münchener RückversicherungsThe Munich Re name and mark is owned by The Munich Re name and mark is owned by Münchener Rückversicherungs
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