2009 spasojevic serbia
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TRANSCRIPT
Social Cleavages and Consolidation of Democracy in
Serbia 2000-2007
extended (but not improved) version
IUC, 2009
Social cleavages
• Long-lasting division within society, based on fundamental issues
- ideology
- political organization
- socio-demographic group• Lipset and Rokkan freezing hypothesis• National and industrial revolutions• Center-periphery, land-industry, state-church,
owners-worker
Lipset-Rokkan hypothesis
Ideological, identity-based
oppositions
Interest opposiotns
Opposition within National elites
Local-regional oppositions
Functional axe
Terit
oria
l ax
e
Critics and inovations…
• materialist vs. postmaterialsts
• What is less than social cleavege? (Barolini, Mair, Deegan-Krause)
- ideology
- political organization
- socio-demographic group
Cleavages and postCommunism
• Elites project, not connected with social bases (Attila Agh)
• Not based as class conflicts (Offe, Preuss)
• missing middle approach, modernization approach, comparative approach (Evans, Whitefield)
• Kitschelt communists legacy study
New ideas on PostComm Cleaveges
• Fon Beyme:
-ancient regime - transformational regime
- centralization – decentralization
- nationalism – Occidentalism
(traditionalism-modernism (Markus), “return to ourselves or return to Europe”
east-west, pre modern- modern –postmodern, Inglehart)
The main line of party grouping
Market allocation
Political allocation
Libertarno-cosmopolit.
Autoritharian particularists
Consolidation meets cleaveges
• Ideological vs interest based
- competition vs cooperation
- zero sum game vs bargaining (consensus)
- Constellation – cross-cutting ,overlapping, reinforcing
- Hierarchy of cleavages
Serbian case – history via cleavages
• 1990 – president of Serbia
• 1996/97 – local elections defeat
• 1999 – NATO bombing
History via cleavages 2
2000 – founding elections
Ancient regime – New regime cleavage
2002
traditionalists – modernists
2003 - Djindjic assassination
2004.
Transitional losers – winners
Ancient regime – New regime?
2006 – same cleavages
(Milosevic dies)
2008- Kosovo independence?
radicals - Serbian democrats - democrats
Ancient regime - new regime (democratic)
Cleavages in Serbia - summary
- Ancient regime – new regime
- Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism)(pre modern, modern and postmodern - Croatia)
- Transitional losers - transitional winners
- Center – periphery
- Materialism – post materialism
Consolidation and cleavages in Serbia
Ideological conflicts
Interest opposition
National elite competition
Local and regional conflicts
1.2.
3.
4.5.
1. Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism)2. Ancient regime – new regime3. Transitional losers - transitional winners4. Center – periphery5. . Materialism – post materialism
Conse q uences – 2008.
• Reinforcing cleavages – divided society
• Democracy is not the only game in the town – consensus across cleavages?
• Social exclusion and frustration
• We vs them
Nightmare continues…
• 2007- new elections and new government
• Democrats (stronger) and Serbian democrats
• Kosovo independence/”independence”
• Riots in Belgrade (feb 2008), and break up of coalition
New elections – may 08
• circumstances? • Kosovo - international perspective• Economy – middle class (investments,
development)• Kosovo vs. European Union • Two block – weak middle (Serbian Dems)• New Government - democrats and Socialists
Long term consequences
• Europe, not Kosovo (veeery long term)
• Changing type of party system – from polarized pluralism toward moderate pluralism (Sartori) – Division among radicals – new “less” radical
party – 20% percent and more
• Better prospects for democracy
Short and mid term consequences
• Europe not Kosovo, but how?
(incl. EU foreign policy )
• Independence recognition – how to react?
• Nationalistic Rhetoric (or “just” strategy)
• International court of Justice – UN Assembly (Macedonia, Montenegro)
To be continued…
• Serbian identity and belonging?
Is there a real choice? Identification based on what (lack of mobilization force)? Cant be too happy about EU (regulations)
• Region – Dear Ivo Sanader
• EU?
• NATO? (officially neutral, not recognized)
• SEKA
What cleaves Serbia?
• Economy - still not clear position, just matter of redistribution within narrow space (still transitional economy, Krastev)
• Big ideological cleavage – narrowed space (antidiscrimination law)
• no ancient regime cleavage any more
• center- periphery (Vojvodina case)
The main line of party grouping – future?
Market allocation
Political allocation
Libertarno-cosmopolit.
Autoritharian particularists