2010-02-12-flanagan-slides_david flanagan presentation to the portland chamber of commerce

8/3/2019 2010-02-12-Flanagan-slides_David Flanagan Presentation to the Portland Chamber of Commerce

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A Financial Crisis is a TerribleThing to Waste

David Flanagan

[email protected]

207-724-2041

1
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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So How Are We Doing?

National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP)

4th Grade Reading Proficiency Maines Ranking

1998 4th ranking

2007 10th ranking

8th Grade Mathematics Proficiency Maines Ranking

1996 1st ranking

2007 24th ranking

2Source: Dr. David Silvernail


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So How Are We Doing?

2008 SAT Test Scores

Critical Reading Mathematics Writing

National 502 515 494

Maine 469 466 461

Maine vs

National (-33) (-49) (-33)

3Source: Dr. David Silvernail


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4

Percent of Adults with Associate Degree or Higher by Age GroupsLeading OECD Countries, U.S. and New England States, 2006

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 (2006 data for countries) and U.S. Census, American CommunitySurvey, 2006.


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5

Education, 39%

Human Services, 22%

Higher Educ.,9%

Admin. , 4%

Mental Health, 10%

Corrections, 5%Other, 11%

Maine State Expenditures(2008 General Fund)

Source data: STATE of MAINE Compendium of State Fiscal Information, 2008


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6

Nominal K-12 Expenditures vs K-12 Enrollment

Indexed to 1978-79 =100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

78-79 83-84 88-89 93-94 98-99 03-04 05-06

Expenditures

Enrollment

451%

-16%

Source: Maine DevelopmentFoundation


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7Source: CQ Fact Finder, 2009, p. 143


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8

Maine Public School Staff

1980-81 to 2007-08

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

NumberofFull-TimeStaff

Classroom Teachers

All Other Staff



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9

Statewide Special Education Expenditures

(in millions of $)

$123$133 $137

$149

$163$172

$186

$203

$218

$237$247

$261

$276$283

$290

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

04-05

05-06

06-07



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10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

National 2009 Maine 1999 Maine 2009 Avg of Peer States

Estimated Pupil-Teacher Ratio, K-12, 2009

Source::CQ Fact Finder 2009, p. 143


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11

K-12 Special Ed Expenditures

as % of Total K-12 Expenditures

5%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

78-79 06-07



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Source: Dr. David Silvernail, MEPRI,08/09

12


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Source: Dr. David Silvernail, MEPRI,08/09

13


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Source: Dr. David Silvernail, MEPRI08/09

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FactorPer Pupil TotalExpenditure

Per Pupil

InstructionalExpenditures

Per Pupil Non-

InstructionalExpenditures

Distrace Average

Grade MEAPerformance

Per Pupil

Expenditures 1 0.68 0.83 0.01

Per Pupil

Instructional

Expenditures 1 0.05 0.12

Per Pupil Non-Instructional

Expenditures 1 -0.07

District Average

8th Grade MEA

Performance 1

Three year averages

FY 2006-2008


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15

37

28

3536

35

3130

35

3233

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

NationalRan

k

National Rank on Per Capita Personal Income1985-2008

.


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Percento

fHouseholds

Income Range

Percent of Maine Households with High Property Tax Burden,

by Income

Tax > 6% Income

Tax > 10% Income

Source: Allen and Woodbury 2006.

16


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Resident Pupil Counts1970 to 2003 Actual, 2004 to 2017 Projected

17

175,000

185,000

195,000

205,000

215,000

225,000

235,000

245,000

255,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Grade

Count

* Does not include

unorganized territoriesTrendlineActual

Projected


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18

Change in School Enrollment

Percent, 1996-2005

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

York

Cumberland

Sagadahoc

Lincoln

Knox

Waldo

Hancock

Androscoggin

Kennebec

Penobscot

Oxford

Franklin

Somerset

Piscataquis

Aroostook

Washington

PercentChange

Coastal Central Rim

Maine -7.5%



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19

Percent Change in School Enrollment

1970-2002

-31%

-14%

8%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1

Service

CentersOther

Communities

Maine

Average



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-1% -3%

-11%

28%

97%

55%

28%14%

0-17 18-29 30-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Percent Population Change by Age Cohort

Maine 1999 to 2025



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ReferencesDr. Richard Woodbury

Dr. David Silvernail

Laurie Lachance, Maine Development

Foundation

Meeting New Challenges, Setting

New Directions: Task Force Report

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2010-02-12-flanagan-slides_david flanagan presentation to the portland chamber of commerce

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