2010 - 2040
TRANSCRIPT
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
Prepared by the
Indiana Business Research Center
April 2008
Indiana Population Projections2010 - 2040
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Indiana will add 940,000 residents by 2040 – a 15% increase from 2005
• Indiana’s population will surpass 7 million by 2030 and stand at 7.2 million in 2040
• The senior population will grow 90% by 2040 (1 in 5 Hoosiers will be 65+)
• Indiana’s median age will increase 3.5 years by 2040
Highlights
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• 65 of 92 counties will see population growth over this period
• The 10‐county Indy metro area will account for 54% of the state’s growth
• Hamilton County will add >200,000 residents –an 85% increase over 2005
• Marion County will add 141,000 residents, surpassing 1 million residents, by 2040
Highlights
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• No assumptions are made about future economic conditions or policy decisions
• These projections rely exclusively on recent rates of migration, fertility, and mortality
• The projections reflect the likely future trends if these rates continue (with some minor assumptions)
About the Projections
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Indiana grew by an average of 350K each decade between 1900 to 2000
• The state will grow an average of 283K per decade between 2000 to 2040
Total Growth
01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Indiana Total Population, 1900 - 2040
Actual Projected
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• The 1990s trailed only the ’50s in total growth by decade• Growth will decline slightly each decade through 2040
Total Growth
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000
1900 -1910
1920 -1930
1940 -1950
1960 -1970
1980 -1990
2000 -2010
2020 -2030
Population Growth by Decade
Actual Projected
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Indiana’s share of U.S population will continue to decline as growth trends towards the South and West
• Indiana would need 3 million more residents in 2040 to match the share of U.S population it held in 1970
Total Growth
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Indiana as a % of U.S Population, 1900 - 2040
Actual ProjectedSource: U.S. national projections from the U.S. Census Bureau
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• The distribution of Indiana’s population by age will shift dramatically as Baby Boomers enter retirement years
Total Growth
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-plus
280 210 140 70 0 70 140 210 280
Th d
Indiana Population Distribution by Age & Gender, 2005 (thousands)
Female
Male
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-plus
280 210 140 70 0 70 140 210 280
Indiana Population Distribution by Age & Gender, 2040 (thousands)
Female
Male
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
By 2025:
• Hamilton County will add 169K residents representing 28% of total state growth
• Hendricks and Marion counties will each add 59K (9.6% of total growth apiece)
• 29 counties will lose population
Total Growth
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Hamilton, Hendricks, Boone, Johnson, and Hancock counties will grow by greater than 20% by 2025
Total Growth
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• The senior population increases from a 12 to 21% share of the state’s population
• Shares for all other age groups will decline
Aging Population
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Share of Population by Age Group, 2005 to 2040
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• In 2005, there were 2 working age Hoosiers for each non‐working age resident. This ratio drops to 1.5 to 1 by 2040.
Aging Population
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-working Age Group Share of Total Population, 2005 to 2040
Under 15 65 and Over
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Indiana’s median age will increase from 36.3 to 39.8• 75% of counties will have median age above 40
Aging Population
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Distribution of Counties by Median Age, 2005 to 2040
Under 30 30 to 34.9 35 to 39.9 40 or Older
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Populous counties such as Marion, Hamilton, Allen, St. Jos., Elkhart and Porter will have median ages below 40 in 2040
• Youngest counties are characterized by large college student or Amish populations
Aging Population
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
Aging Population
23.9%1.8%
14.0%61.7%63.7%
54.8%20.8%
-4.4%-15.8%-9.6%
3.6%7.6%7.2%
0.6%-1.6%
-4.4%1.9%
6.1%
85-plus80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
Percent Change by Age, 2005 to 2020
134.8%105.3%
92.6%89.3%
60.3%43.8%
13.6%-2.0%-6.2%-7.3%
3.5%7.1%
3.4%1.6%2.5%1.3%5.6%7.9%
85-plus80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
Percent Change by Age, 2005 to 2040
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Indiana will lose population in the prime working age groups
• Rural areas will be particularly hard hit
Labor Force
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Percent Change in 25 to 54 Age Group, 2005 to 2040
MSA Counties (46) Non-MSA Counties (46) Indiana Total
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Suburban Indy counties will attract population in the prime working age groups.
• East‐central and north‐central regions of the state will experience significant declines in these age groups
Labor Force
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• Expect uneven geographic change in 25–54 group with the Indy metro adding 53K while the state declines on the whole
• Other metros to see growth are Lafayette (7.4%), Elkhart‐Goshen (5.0%), Bloomington ( 3.2%), Fort Wayne (0.4%)
Labor Force
-1.7%
7.2%
-5.1%-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Indiana Indy Metro Remainder of State
Percent Change in Population Age 25 - 54 by Selected Regions, 2005 - 2025
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
Components of Change
• 20 counties will experience a natural decrease (more deaths than births) between 2005 and 2040.
• Natural decrease counties will mostly be rural.
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
• 57% if Indiana counties will have a net outmigration over this period
• Suburban Indy counties will attractmigrants
• West‐Central and portions of Southern Indiana will see in‐migration as well.
Components of Change
Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040
www.ibrc.indiana.edu
www.stats.indiana.edu
www.census.gov
Technical questions:
Matt Kinghorn, DemographerIndiana Business Research [email protected]
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