2010 agribusiness leaders outlook poll. 2010 agribusiness leaders outlook poll methodology 217...

2010AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS

OUTLOOK POLL

2010 AGRIBUSINESS LEADERS OUTLOOK POLL

METHODOLOGY

• 217 surveys sent to one representative at each agribusiness

• 58 responses

• No incentive

• 27% return

Crops Livestock Combined

Very optimistic 15% 6% 12%

Optimistic 50% 34% 45%

Neutral 28% 50% 35%

Somewhat negative 7% 5% 7%

Very negative 0% 5% 2%


What is your overall outlook for your ag business in 2010 compared to 2009?




Neutral 42% 44% 52%




What is your overall outlook for the general agriculture economy in 2010 compared to 2009?




Neutral 38% 45% 40%




What is your outlook for the overall U.S. economy in 2010 compared to 2009?

Corn(86.4 mil in 2009)

Soybeans(77.5 mil in 2009)

Cotton(9.1 mil in 2009)

10%+ increase 0% 2% 6%

5-10% increase 7% 18% 8%

1-4% increase 41% 41% 20%

Same as 2009 31% 18% 25%

1-4% decrease 18% 18% 33%

5-10% decrease 3% 3% 8%

10%+ decrease 0% 0% 0%


What do you estimate the change in U.S. planted acres will be next year for the following crops?

Under $3/bushel 5%

$3.00-$3.24/bushel 19%

$3.25-$3.49/bushel 16%

$3.50-$3.74/bushel 30%

$3.75-$3.99/bushel 5%

$4/bushel and over 24%

AVERAGE $3.50


The average corn price in 2009 was $3.30 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?

Under $8/bushel 5%

$8.00-$8.50/bushel 10%

$8.51-$9.00/bushel 25%

$9.01-$9.50/bushel 15%

$9.51-$10.00/bushel 33%

More than $10/bushel 12%

AVERAGE $9.38


The average soybean price in 2009 was $9.50 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?

Under $0.55/pound 22%

$0.55-$0.60/pound 44%

$0.61-$0.70/pound 13%

$0.71-$0.80/pound 15%

More than $0.80/pound 6%

AVERAGE $0.62


The average cotton price in 2009 was $0.54 per pound. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?

$3.45-$4.00/bushel 5%

$4.01-$5.00/bushel 28%

$5.01-$5.50/bushel 36%

$5.51-$6.00 20%

More than $6.00/bushel 11%

AVERAGE $5.35


The average hard red wheat price in 2009 was $5.20 per bushel. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?

Beef Cow/Calf

(31.7 mil in ‘09)

Fed Beef Cattle

(53.5 mil in ‘09)Dairy Cows

(9.3 mil in ‘09)Sows

(6 mil in ‘09)Fed Hogs

(114 mil in ‘09)

10%+ increase 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

5-10% increase 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

1-4% increase 27% 20% 13% 7% 7%

Same as 2009 27% 33% 8% 20% 27%

1-4% decrease 33% 33% 53% 26% 40%

5-10% decrease 13% 7% 13% 40% 13%

10%+ decrease 0% 7% 13% 7% 13%


What do you estimate the change in the U.S. herd size will be for the following?

$75/cwt 8%

$85/cwt 15%

$86/cwt 23%

$87/cwt 15%

$88/cwt 15%

$89/cwt 7%

$90/cwt 15%

AVERAGE $86.31


The average price for fed cattle in 2009 was $84 per cwt. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?

$14/lb 23%

$14.10/lb 8%

$14.25/lb 8%

$14.50/lb 8%

$15/lb 46%

$16/lb 7%

AVERAGE $14.68


The average price for milk in 2009 was $12.40 per pound. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?

$48/cwt 8%

$50/cwt 8%

$53/cwt 15%

$55/cwt 30%

$57/cwt 8%

$60/cwt 8%

$65/cwt 15%

$70/cwt 8%

AVERAGE $57.00


The average price for lean hogs in 2009 was $53 per cwt. What do you estimate the average selling price will be in 2010?


Increase 70% 59% 67%

Same as 2009 18% 29% 21%

Decrease 13% 12% 12%


How do you estimate your ag business’s revenues next year will compare to 2009 revenues?


Fewer than 10 72% 94% 80%

10-29 13% 0% 8%

30-49 3% 0% 2%

50-99 6% 0% 4%

100 or more 6% 6% 6%

AVERAGE 28 14 18


How many new products/services is your ag business going to launch in 2010?


Significantly more 8% 0% 5%

More 34% 39% 36%

Same 50% 44% 48%

Less 8% 11% 9%

Significantly less 0% 6% 2%


How does that compare to last year?

Field equipment/accessories 9%

Soil/plant nutrients 5%

Crop protection products 14%

Seed/traits 23%

Farmstead & grain storage structures/water management 5%

Ag credit 2%

Insurance 2%

Animal health/feed 14%

Genetics 2%

Livestock handling equipment/animal ID 2%

Other 22%


Which of the following is your firm’s major product or service?


More than $5 billion 16% 0% 11%

$1 billion to $5 billion 22% 29% 24%

$500 million to $1 billion 8% 6% 7%

$250 million to $500 million 19% 6% 15%

$100 million to $250 million 11% 29% 17%

Less than $100 million 24% 29% 26%


Approximately what were your ag business unit’s sales in 2009?

2010 agribusiness leaders outlook poll. 2010 agribusiness leaders outlook poll methodology 217...

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