2010 analyst meeting - final 2ptt.listedcompany.com/misc/presentations/2010_analystmeeting.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Draft
Analyst MeetingAnalyst Meeting4Q/2010Q
DisclaimerDisclaimer
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and p juncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
2
2/20
ContentsContents
Highlight & PTT Aspirationg g p
Expansion & Growth
2010 Financial Performance
2011 Economic and Market Outlook
3/20
Highlight of activities to dateProactive in M&A
Investment/M&AC di Oil S d 40% i iti b PTTEP• Canadian Oil Sands, 40% acquisition by PTTEP
• PTTCH & PTTAR merger, creating synergistic value
• SAR Coal, increasing to 45.6% shareholding
• Laos Xayaburi Hydro power project, investing 25% with CK
• Bangkadee SPP power project, investing 23% with B.Grimm
Operation• GSP6 started Testing & Commissioning since 4Q/10
• LPG ex-refinery price reformed 76% linked to market price• LPG ex-refinery price reformed, 76% linked to market price
• NGV 2 baht subsidy extended to June 30, 2011
• Montara action plan accepted by Australian government
Finance• 100-year Baht bond, first time ever for Bt4,000 mm at 5.9% p.a.
• Moody’s ratings downgraded to sovereign level at Baa1
4/20
Becoming Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company
PTT Group’s Vision & Aspiration
Aspiration : Becoming a Global Fortune 100 Company by 2020With Top Quartile Performance and on DJSI by 2013
Balance All Stakeholders’ InterestsStrategic Framework
p Q y
HPO
EconomicShare
holdersShare
holdersCustomers
NationNation
Customers
Enhance through
Shareholders
CG CSR
Sustainable Growth Strategy
Social Environmental Partners
holders
PartnersEmployeesP l
Employees Partners
Global Fortune 100
CG CSRPeople &SocietyPeople
& Society
Sustainable growth, DJSILONG
Top quartile ROIC in all businessesSTRONG
Global Fortune 100BIG
5/20
PTT Group’s strategic directionEnergy diversification
Non- AsiaAustralia, N. Asia and S. AsiaASEANThailand
Internationalization
UpstreamGas
UpstreamOil
tion
al
/ m
ater
ials
Asia and S. Asia
“Keep” core value chain expansion▪ Drive E&P growth (900 kbd)▪ Accelerate Petchem consolidation,
Market back strategy
Top Oil and Gas player
CoalOthersC
onve
ntEn
ergy
/
Nuclearals
“Enhance” value chain game in adjacent energy businesses to diversify
Market back strategy
on
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Wi dnati
ve
gy /
mat
eria
Energy conglomerate▪ Grow coal mining with large scale
and move into trading
▪ Consolidate and expand power tf li ( i iti i l )ve
rsif
icat
io
Bio-based
Wind
Alt
ern
Ener
g
Real estate
Servicesnfra
portfolio (prioritizing clean)
▪ Capture bio-route growth through sugar/cassava based and oleochemvalue chain development
Div
Retail
Others
Oth
ers
ServicesI p
Business conglomerate
“Seed” options to play conglomerate game▪ Retail in Thailand
O ▪ Palm plantation in Indonesia (CPO)
6/20
ContentsContents
Highlights & PTT Aspirationg g p
Expansion & Growth
2010 Financial Performance
2011 Economic and Market Outlook
7/20
PTT : Gas BusinessExpansion to meet future gas demand
6000
Gas Demand OutlookGas Demand OutlookUnit : mmscfd
4000
6000
Industry 15%
GSP 20%17%11%
NGV 4%
4%
0
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Power 61%68%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Supply Bongkot South
LNGM9JDA B17 Chevron
(Plathong)
PipelineCapacity
4th Onshore Offshore Compressor
(Plathong)
Capacity(mmscfd) 5,580
GSP
5,580 6,980 6,9804,380p
6,980
GSP#6
4.3Production
(MTA) 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.06.3
GSP#6
8/20
PTT : Oil and Trading Business PTT : Oil and Trading Business Market leader in Thailand, going international
Thailand’s Market Thailand’s Market ShareShare
3%Others
36%22%
• Best in class operationo Depot & Logistics management
9%12%
9%
9% • Increase non-oil businesso Life station, Jiffy, Amazon
12% • Grow Internationallyo Retail & Lube in Asiao Expand trading network
9/20
PTTEP UpstreamMajor projects coming to production
Expected Sales VolumeExpected Sales Volume
’000 BOED
327
Proved Reserves 1,043 MMBOEProved Reserves 1,043 MMBOE
250
300
350
265 273
319 311327
316
MTJDA O
150
200
250
Bongkot
MTJDA
Arthit Domestic59%
Overseas41%
KKD Oil Sands50
100
150
Others Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.33 >1
Policy
KKD Oil Sands,Montara,
Vietnam 16-10
2011 2012 2013 2014 20152010
Reserve Life Index (year) 9
BongkotSouth
M9Algeria
MTJDA KKD Oil SandsVietnam 16-1
Montara
10/20
Oil Refinery SectorOil Refinery SectorFocus on value creation and products quality improvement
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
TLB Specialties EURO IV PX Upgrading HCU Revamp Power Plant $1 302 MM
275,000 bpd
TLB Specialties EURO IV
Ethanol UBE
PX Upgrading HCU Revamp
Benzene DerivativesLube Base
Power Plant 220MW
$1,302 MM
280,000 bpd
GTs Nox/Bio-diesel/VRU
EURO IV $ 265 MM
P l P l ABS/SAN Ph i Ph i $ 1 511 MM215,000 bpd
Power plant220MW
Phoenix
Propylene Booster
Phoenix
ABS/SAN Expansion
Phoenix
Phoenix Phoenix•Propylene 237 KTA
$ 1,511 MM
120 000 bpd
EURO IV
Solar Power
Solar Power Plant32MW
Solar Power Plant 48 MW
- $ 509 MM
120,000 bpd Solar Power Plant 38 MW
Ethanol UBE
11/20
Major expansion in 2011Petrochemical Sector
20112010 2012 onwards Total20112010
Olefins 1,588 KTA
2012 onwards
Ethylene 1,000 KTA HDPE 300 KTA
Total
$1,300MMPolymers 590 KTAEO-Based 515 KTAOleochemicals 962 KTA
LLDPE 400 KTA LDPE 300 KTA$1,300MM
Bis-Phenol-A 150 KTAPhenol 200 KTAAcetone 125 KTA
$251MM
PP 450 KTA
PP 300 KTAPropylene 310 KTA
$636MM
AN 200 KTAMMA 70 KTA $760MM
12/20
PTT: CAPEX (Company Only)PTT plans to invest ~Bt 327 bn ($10.9bn) during 2011-2015
U it MM B ht
R&D / Others
JV
CAPEX 2011 - 2015 327,038
Committed projects 228,789
M&A t iti 98 249
Unit: MM Baht
JV
LNG
Oil
Gas
M&A opportunities 98,249
94,809
53,081
Gas75,545
58,3395 Years CAPEX Breakdown
By Business Unit64,889
29,066
28,124
28,282 33,456
Gas 39%Others
JV48%
27,86536,440
20,98632,134
10,205
19,334 LNG 3%
Oil 4%R&D / Others 6%
Sources : PTT (Board approval on 24 Dec 2010) ; FX = Baht 30 per USDNote : CAPEX in 2011 not include contingency CAPEX (THB 1 Bn)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
13/20
ContentsContents
Highlights in 4Q/2010g g Q
Expansion & Growth
2010 Financial Performance
2011 Economic and Market Outlook
14/20
Performance HighlightsPerformance HighlightsNet profit jumped in 2010
62 78 74 84+14% QoQ
16%7%
2%U it MM B ht+20% YoY
Dubai ($/bbl)
+26% YoY 4Q/2010
Petrochem
Gas
PTTEP
1,586,1741,900,005
493 550
23%51%
1%Unit : MM Baht
+7% QoQ
+20% YoY
US$ 16,381mm
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Coal
461,402 493,550
+17% YoY Petrochem
Others0.1% Oil Mkt
6% Int’ Trd
Coal3%
Revenue
142,704167,375
38 807 41 714
28%+8% QoQ
GasTM 12%S&M 5%GSP 8%
US$ 1,385 mm
1%Int Trd
-1%
38,807 41,71463%PTTEP
GSP 8%Others 3%
+40% YoY Others-3%
EBITDA
59,54883,088
21,705 21,67837%26%
US$ 720
-0.1% QoQ PTTRefining
Asso.
Net Income
2009 2010 3Q/10 4Q/10
31%
9%mm
PetrochemAffi.
PTTEP21.06 29.26 7.64 7.62EPS15/20
PTT Group Performance improved YoY
% shareUnit : MM Baht 2009 2010 YoY 2009 2010 YoY
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
PTT Company Only 39,651 54,577 38% 39,651 54,577 38%
Less: Dividend Received 14,493 18,317 26% 14,493 18,317 26%
PTT Net operating Income 25,158 36,260 44% 25,158 36,260 44%
E&P PTTEP 22 154 41 739 88% 65% 14 634 27 414 87%E&P ‐ PTTEP 22,154 41,739 88% 65% 14,634 27,414 87%
Petro. ‐ PTTCH 6,802 10,290 51% 49% 3,357 5,036 50%
‐ HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTME/PTTTANK
1,814 5,432 199% 40‐48% 820 2,293 180%
8,616 15,722 82% 4,177 7,329 75%
Refining ‐ TOP 12,062 8,999 ‐25% 49% 5,941 4,221 ‐29%
‐ IRPC 5,415 6,183 14% 39% 2,247 2,282 2%
‐ PTTAR 9,162 6,343 ‐31% 49% 3,702 2,997 ‐19%
‐ SPRC 5,534 5,562 1% 36% 1,722 2,120 23%
‐ BCP 7,524 2,813 ‐63% 28% 2,130 815 ‐62%
39 697 29 900 25% 15 742 12 435 21%39,697 29,900 ‐25% 15,742 12,435 ‐21%
Coal ‐ PTTAPM 755 519 n.m. 60% 755 519 ‐31%
Gas & Utilities ‐TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 2,707 3,695 36% 20‐100% 933 1,784 91%
Oil & Oth.‐ PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTGE/EMG/PTTI/PTTML
‐2,065 ‐2,819 ‐37% 33‐100% ‐1,985 ‐2,653 34%
16
PTTGE/EMG/PTTI/PTTML
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 71,864 88,756 24% 34,256 46,828 37%
PTT Conso. Net Income 97,022 125,016 29% 59,548 83,088 40%
**Adjusted Negative Goodwill/Reversed on Impairment approx. Bt 134mm in 2009. SPRC FY2010 is unaudited 16/20
Balance Sheets : Solid and SecuredBalance Sheets : Solid and SecuredGrowing Assets with strong financial position
Unit : MM Baht
• 100% Coogee Strong Financial Position• Ethane Separation Plant• WIP of Montara & Bongkot,
PTTLNG PTTAC GSP6 &PTT 14.810.5 11.1
1.7 1 4
• Completion ofArthit-MTJDA Pipeline
acquisition by PTTEP• 60% PTTAPM acquisition
1,102,544
ICRICR1,249,148
PTTLNG, PTTAC, GSP6, &PTT Tank
0.4 0.5 0.4
1.0 1.4
2008 2009 2010206,925
112,859
157,416
249,565 306,846
885,193Other Liabilities
Cash &
, ,Net Debt/EBITDANet Debt/EBITDA
Net Debt/EquityNet Debt/Equity
2008 2009 2010
358,011 151,377
181,292
,
92,037
354,888 370,989
215,532
,
OtherCurrent
Assets
L/TLiabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
Cash & S/T Invest
• Treasury policy
267,165
333,806 358,0
3 3
239,125
,
Others Non-
currentAssets
within 1 yr)
Shareholders’
− Net Debt/Equity < 1.0
− Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
• PTT ratings at sovereign level
374,614
474,587
526,796 430,536 498,091
571,313
PP&E
ShareholdersEquity − FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A) FITCH (A-)
31 Dec 08
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10
17/20
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage RiskDebt Profile : Control Cost & Manage RiskManaged debt according to financial risk and policy
Debt Portfolio
ConsolidatedConsolidatedPTT OnlyPTT Only: Cost of debts ~ 4.62 %: % fixed-rate ~ 85.13 %: Avg. debt life ~ 6.8 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.96 %: % fixed-rate ~ 89.11%: Avg. debt life ~ 7.7 years g y: Avg. debt life 7.7 years
Unit : MM Baht 343,138370,262
84,147114,442
THB USD
238,614257,433
(25%)
266,185(31%)
x
258 991 255 820
67,530
63,979 68,308
79,493
(33%)(33%)
(25%)206,300
(26%)
138,770
193,454 197,877159,121
258,991 255,820
(67%)(67%)
(75%)(75%) (74%)
(69%)
31 Dec 08 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 08 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10
18/20
ContentsContents
Highlights in 4Q/2010g g Q
Expansion & Growth
2010 Financial Performance
2011 Economic and Market Outlook
19/20
Economic & Market Outlook Economic & Market Outlook 20112011
• The global economy grows at slower pace, driven by the developing and g y g p y p gthe emerging countries. The IMF projected the 2011 growth at 4.7%.
• Thai economy is also expected to expand following the global economy. Thai economy is also expected to expand following the global economy. NESDB estimated the 2011 growth in the range of 3.5 – 4.5%.
• Crude oil price is expected to move in the range of $85 – 95 /bbl Crude oil price is expected to move in the range of $85 – 95 /bbl.
• Average market GRM is expected in the range of $5-6/bbl from the higher demand following the global economic recoverydemand following the global economic recovery.
• Olefins petrochemical price is expected to maintain from the increased d d d i ddi i l idemand despite additional capacity.
• Aromatics petrochemical price is expected to increase from increasing demand in emerging countries.
20/20
Thank youThank youyouyou
PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations DepartmentTel. +66 2 537-3815, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, Email: [email protected], http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
Statements of Cash flows (Company Only) : For the year ended Statements of Cash flows (Company Only) : For the year ended 20102010
Finance(18,025) MB¹
Operating65,701MB
Unit : MM Baht
CAPEX & Investment(29,133) MB
Cash Ending
Cash Beginning
Change in NWC Bond & Loan
Repayment33,447
48 788Net Income &
Change in NWC4,762 CAPEX (PP&E)
20,051
O h I ²
Bond & Loan50,419
,
Others Finance³
42,76848,788Net Income &
Non‐Cash60,939
Investment andLoan to affiliates
40,305 Dividend Received18,425
Other Investments²12,798
34,996
Cash InflowCash & CashEquivalent
Cash & CashEquivalent61,311
,
Cash Outflow
31 31 Dec Dec 0909 31 31 Dec Dec 1010Cash In (Out) 18,543MB
42,768
22
1 Adjust effect on Exchange to Cash and Cash equivalent 1 MM Baht2 S‐T investments, Other L‐T investments and Interest received3 Share issuance, Dividend paid and Interest paid
PTTEP: The only Exploration and Production Arm of PTTExpand activities to meet the aspiration
Proved Reserves 1,043 MMBOEProved Reserves 1,043 MMBOEOperations : 44 Projects in 13 CountriesOperations : 44 Projects in 13 Countries
By Product By Geography
Liquid
North America(1)• Canada
Liquid29%
North Africa (4)• Algeria
Middle East (2)• Oman• Bahrain
Thailand (19)*
Gas 71% Domestic
59%
Overseas41%
• Algeria• Egypt
South East Asia (14)• Myanmar• Vietnam• Indonesia• Cambodia
Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.33R Lif I d ( ) 9
Australasia (4)• New Zealand• Australia
Cambodia• Malaysia
Projects
Reserve Life Index (year) 9
Key project areasKKD Oil Sands Australasia Myanmar
2323
Exploration 21Development 4Production 1933
Total 44
*Remark: Including overlapping area23
23
PTTEP: Operating and Financial performanceEarnings continuously improved from both sales volume and price
Sales Volume Product price+9% YoY+3% QoQ+13% YoY
2010 4Q %YoY %YoY %QoQ
Liquid +27% +11% +13%Unit: BOED
58.0373.77 72.15 70.99 80.02
Liquid($/BBL)
249,903265,261
272,198233,756264,575
Liquid +27% +11% +13%
Gas +7% +10% -2%Weight Avg. +13% +6% +4%
39.53 44.83 43.44 44.54 46.14
5.17 5.52 5.06 5.68 5.58
/ / /
Weighted avg. ($/BOE)Gas ($/MMBTU)
Earnings 2010 Product Mix
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
2010 4Q
Unit: MM BahtLi id
By Volume By Revenue
2010 4Q %YoY %YoY %QoQ
Sales Revenue +20% +5% +1%
Net Income +88% +118% -4%EBITDA +30% +41% +11%
115,548138,474
78,068101,708
Sales Revenue EBITDA NILiquid
29%Gas71%
Liquid47%
Gas53%
33,441 34,739 34,95619,132 24,313 27,05222,154
41,739
4,652 10,532 10,120
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10 24Source: PTTEP analyst meeting
PTT : Natural Gas Sales & Transmission Pipeline Continuing demand growth due to the economic recovery
Customer ProfileGas Sales Volumes (mmscfd) @ heat 1,000
185 211
EGAT IPP SPP GSP Indus try NGV
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Existing pipeline’s capacity 4,380 mmscfd
8
4,1525% 5%
+14% YoY4,040+13% YoY
4,148+13% YoY-0.1% QoQ
597650
591714 763369
444404
451 448134
184151
185 211
4,055
4,152 4,148 3,686
16%
11%
18%
11%2010avg. 4,040
3,554-0.1% QoQ
903943
935951 856
454475
467475 480
597 5913,801
3,6063,677 3,686
3 5543,655 2008
avg. 3,443
2009avg. 3,554
23%
12%
21%
11%
1,097 1,344 1,138 1,376 1,390
903
3,280
3,346 3,554
3,2163,167
3,319 3,318 3,284
3 0163,105 3,138 2006
avg. 3,084
2007avg. 3,272
33% 34%
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
3,0163,075
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
g ,
25
The government extend NGV capped price at Bt 8.50/kg until 30 June, 2011 with compensation to PTT at Bt 2/kg.
PTT : Gas Separation PlantsBetter earnings driven by higher sales volume
Product Prices ($/ton) Sales Volume (x 1,000 tons)+2% YoY
1,065 1,163
269 268Propane
Ethane1,134
1,222 1,209
1 1201,2711,088
1,3401,159
1,2601,419
801
PP 1/ 6%
27%HDPE 1/
+2% YoY4,2904,213
+19% YoY+4% QoQ
2,356 2,322
523 537NGL
LPG
1,1201,088 1,159
505 660 621601 733
511713 657 615
801
261 299 255 309 302333 333 332 333 333
Domestic LPG 9%
12%27%
LPG 2/ 13%
54%
Naphtha 3/
Cost of sales
1,035 1,184 1,231
+4% QoQ
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/102009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
Note: 1/ SEA Spot2/ Contract Price (CP 50:50) 3/ MOP’S
12%
52%
% Utilization 94% 92% 96% 98% 98%Rate3/ MOP’S Rate
Product Prices 2010 4Q/10 Sales Vol. 2010 4Q/10
%YoY %YoY %QoQ%YoY %YoY %QoQ
HDPE 8% 5% 14%
PP 23% 22% 13%
N hth 31% 18% 22%
Total 2% 19% 4%Propane ‐0.4% 58% 49%Ethane 9% 22% ‐7%
26Note: Sales volume exclude LPG purchased from petrochemical producers for resale
Naphtha 31% 18% 22%
Cost of sales 15% 18% ‐2%NGL 3% 18% 9%LPG ‐2% 13% 4%
PTT : Oil BusinessPTT : Oil BusinessMarket leader in oil retails at 36% market share
Unit : Million litersOil Marketing : sales volume ~240 KBOE/d Thailand’s Market ShareThailand’s Market Share
As of December As of December 20102010+7% YoY
36%22%
3%Others
+7% YoY
13,008+6% YoY+5% QoQ13,953
16%
11%11%
Jet/IK
Fuel Oil
9%12%9%
9%3,6003,410 3,424
41%
41%
21%
21%16%
10%12%
Gasoline
LPG
Diesel
Source : Department of Energy Business, PTT (Excluded supply sales and LPG sold to Petrochem)
Int’l Trading : trade volume ~1,075 KBOE/dUnit : Million liters
GrossGross Margin Margin –– Oil Mktg.Oil Mktg.Unit : Baht/Liter
Source : Department of Energy Business
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
3%
Petrochem
Refined Product 0 780.810.810.85
Unit : Million liters Unit : Baht/Liter
+3% YoY +6% YoY+11% QoQ
58,25160,256
20092009
44Q/Q/0909
33Q/Q/1010
20102010
70%
12%
15%
14%
3%
Condensate
Crude 0.820.78
0 040.02
Trading MarginTrading Margin14,219
15,72214,82220092009
20102010
44Q/Q/1010
71%12%
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/100.0040.06
0.010.04
27Source : PTT, Note : excluded inter company volume
44Q/Q/0909
33Q/Q/1010
20102010
44Q/Q/1010
Petrochemical Affiliates Higher performance QoQ from increased sales volume and spread margins
Product Prices - Propylene ChainUnit : US$/Ton Unit : US$/Ton
Product Prices - Ethylene Chain
1,134
1,222 1,209 1,1201,271
1,051 1,152 1 088
1,340 1,159
1,260 1,419
PP1/
Unit : US$/Ton Unit : US$/Ton
HDPE1/
617 868
775 761
1,001,
864 1,075 1,056
902,
505 660 621 601
733883
1,130 1,018 1,062 1,088
505 660 621 601
733 Propylene1/
Naphtha2/
PPHDPE
Ethylene1/
MEG1/
Naphtha2/
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10 2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
HMC (PTT 41 44%) PP 450 KTAPTTCH (PTT 48 68%)
Note : 1/ SEA spot 2/MOP’S Source : ICIS
HMC (PTT 41.44%) PP 450 KTAPTTCH (PTT 48.68%)Unit : MM Baht
PP% UtlOlefins % Utl
Unit : MM Baht
HDPE % Utl
94% 85% 87%
106% 93% 91% 106% 98%
Olefins % Utl
2,769 2,784
588 600 1 002 1,949 2,244 685
94%
83%85% 87%
77%
15,548 16,720
4 549 3 187 4,2916,802
10,290
92%71% 83%
66%76%
28
588 600 1,002 364 518 685
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10EBITDA NI
4,549 3,187 4,2912,234 2,030 2,771
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10EBITDA NI
Refining Associates’ GRM & GIMRefining Associates’ GRM & GIMImproved Market GRM & GIM
1212 Unit : US$/bbl Unit : US$/bbl
1010.0
Market GIM
Accounting GIM10
8 4
Market GRM
Accounting GRM
8
6.2
7.3 6.9 7.1
5 8
8
8.4
4
64.9
4.0
5.3 5.8
5.0
4
6
4.3 4.7 4.9
4.1
5.1 4.6
2
4
2
4
1.9
2.6
0
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
0
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10‐0.04
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
29
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10Note: Weighted Average GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP,
PTTAR, SPRC and included BCP in year 2010)Note: Weighted Average GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries
(TOP, PTTAR and IRPC)
Note: Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
Refining AssociatesRefining AssociatesLower performance YoY from the narrowed GRM & GIM
TOP 275 kbpd (PTT 49.10%)PTTAR 280 kbpd (PTT 48 60%)
Unit : MM Baht
21,393
17,432
12,062 8 999
99 95 95 97 94
20,031
102 103 104 105 105
PTTAR 280 kbpd (PTT 48.60%)
3,637 3,995 6,642
8,999
1,611 2,323 3,596
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
13,490
4,1901,703
6,5629,162
6,343
1,498695
3,807
SPRC 150 kbpd (PTT 36 00%),,695
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
9,124 9,2075,534 5 562
SPRC 150 kbpd (PTT 36.00%)
*
*
9 728
66 81 70 80 83
1,122 2,1533,677
5,534 5,562
553 1,289 2,352
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
IRPC 215 kbpd (PTT 39.02%)
* Unaudited preliminary figures
**
9,728 8,322
735 2,351 5,415 6,183
-929 329 2,251
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/1012 316
6686
5873 89
BCP 120 kbpd (PTT 28.29%)
-6,706EBITDA NI %Utl12,316
6,165 1,896 1,221 2,157
7,524 2,813 1,078 507 1,089
58
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/1030
PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai EconomyThai Premier Multinational Energy Company
PTT has the largest market cap on the SET
OTHERS
PTTEP7.5%
PTTCH2.7%
TOP1 9%PTT G
SET Market Cap = Baht 8.1 trillion
OTHERS 72.7% PTT
12.0%
1.9%
IRPC1.4%
PTTAR1 4%
PTT Group27.3%
1.4%BCP &
OTHERS0.4%
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTTMinistry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Data as of 1 March 2011
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTTMinistry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
Public, 34%
Vayupak Fund, 15%
34%
Ministry of Finance,
3131Data as of 10 September 2010
,51%
Note : * DJSI = Dow Jones Sustainability IndexRemark: * DJSI = Dow Jones Sustainability Index
Our major businesses & activities
Business Areas ActivitiesCompany PTT’s holding (%)
E&PE&PPTTEPPTTEP 65.34% Exploration and Production
mm
GasGas
PTT PLCPTT PLCGas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipelineS&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural GasU
pstr
eam
Ups
trea
m
S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural GasGSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for
Petrochemical’s feedstock
UU
Oil MarketingOil MarketingPTT PLCPTT PLC
Oil M k ti 100% R t il i St ti d i l M k tiOil MarketingOil Marketing
Int’l TradingInt’l Trading
eam
eam
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products
Dow
nstr
eD
owns
tre
Refining &Refining &PetrochemicalPetrochemical
(Aromatics)(Aromatics)
TOPTOP 49.10%PTTAR PTTAR 48.60% Integrated Complex Refinery & Petrochemical IRPCIRPC 39.02% SPRCSPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery( )( ) SPRCSPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex RefineryBCPBCP 28.29% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
PTTCH PTTCH 48.68% Gas-based Olefins Chain PetrochemicalPetrochemical
ssN
ew
New
Bu
sine
s sBu
sine
ss
InternationalInternational PTT Inter PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT : Coal, New energy and related businesses
32
Natural Gas Balance: 2010Main driver of the Thai economy
SupplySupply ProductionProduction SalesSales
Indigenous (79%)3,205 MMscfd
Petchemical
Ethane/ Propane/
NGL
Total 4,012 MMscfd
PetchemicalFeedstock (9%)
Industry
Chevron32%
Mitsui9%
Others22%
1,865 MMscfd 652 MMscfd (16%)
IndustryHousehold
Transportation (7%)
LPG/NGLPTTEP31%
9%
5 GSPsTotal Capacity
Import (21%)853 MMscfd Power (68%)Pipeline 1,340 MMscfd
Methane 1,213 MMscfd
1,865 MMscfd
Industry (11%) NGV (5%)
p ,
Myanmar853 MMscfd
Remark: MMscfd = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/cu.ft 33
Oil Balance: 2010 Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
SupplySupply ProductionProduction SalesSales
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 54 KBDImport (79%)
Crude/ R fi d
Domestic870 KBD
Crude/ Condensate816 KBD
RefinedProducts 834 KBD
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,092 KBD
I di (21%)
751 KBD (1)Crude/ Condensate 205 KBDIndigenous (21%) 205 KBD
Export236 KBDPTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD
(TOP, PTTAR, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
Others Refineries : 187 KBD(ESSO, RPC)
RefinedProducts 215 KBD
Crude Export 31 KBD246 KBD
215 KBD
Source: PTITRemark : (1) Included domestic supply of LPG/Propane/NGL from GSPs, Petrochemical Plants & Imported Volume
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
246 KBD
34
Thailand’s Thailand’s projected energy demandprojected energy demand
Commercial Primary Energy Consumption
180,000KTOE
161,323
140,000
160,0007%
16%
,
138,599
118,9866%
3%
2%
80 000
100,000
120,000
12% Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import19%
Renewable2%
102,264
86,689
15%13%2% 17%
15%
16%
3%15%
40,000
60,000
80,000
33%
13%12%
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
28%38%
15%32%
36%
0
20,000 40% Oil 27%32% 28%30%
Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010/ PTT team analysis 35
Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long TermNatural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long TermNatural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 20102010--20302030)): Total ~ : Total ~ 11%%
PP 11%%6,000mmscfd
: Power ~ : Power ~ 11%%: GSP ~ : GSP ~ 22%%: Industry ~ : Industry ~ 33%%: NGV: NGV ~ ~ 11%%
44%%
55,,236236
4,000
5,000
IndustryIndustry1616%%
NGVNGV44%%
44%%
3,000
GSPGSP1717%%11,,970970
1111%%1919%%
2,00088%%
,,
1515%%
0
1,000
PowerPower7777%% 6868%% 6161%%
36
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source : PDP 2010
Natural Gas Price StructureNatural Gas Price StructureGas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
CustomersCustomersSales Price StructureSales Price Structure
Gas Pool PriceGas Pool Price Supply MarginsSupply Margins Pipeline TariffsPipeline Tariffs+ +
Power Producers ~ Power Producers ~ 6868%%
: EGAT ~ : EGAT ~ 3333%% 11..7575%%22 //
: IPP ~ : IPP ~ 2323%%
: SPP ~ : SPP ~ 1212%%
Average Purchased Average Purchased Gas PriceGas Price 11..7575%%
99..3333%%
~ ~ 2121..7 7 Bt/MMBtuBt/MMBtu(Td (Td 2020..6553 6553 ++Tc Tc 11..11121112))
GSP ~ GSP ~ 1616%% Charged at the same price structure of power producersCharged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks:
Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Capped at ~330 USD/ton
Reference to Saudi Aramco s contract price
Industry ~ Industry ~ 1111%% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oilCharged at prices comparable to fuel oil
NGV ~ NGV ~ 55%% Capped at Capped at 88..5 5 Baht/Kg*Baht/Kg*
po t Coo g Gas
3737
• Thailand's Energy Regulatory Commission has approved an increase in pipeline tariff (Td+Tc) from 19.7 to 21.7 Bt/MMBtueffective on 1 April, 2009. * Government subsidies * Government subsidies 2 2 Baht/kg from Oil Fund until February Baht/kg from Oil Fund until February 2828thth, , 20112011
Note : 2010 data
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
Oil Prices Movement : Our Key Value Driver
Crude FO Gasoline HSD
Petroleum prices
140
160
USD/BBL 4Q/10 vs 3Q/10 14% 10% 15% 11%4Q/10 vs 4Q/09 12% 7% 18% 18%
116.8113.3100
120
140
Dubai 2009 avg. = $62/bblDubai 2010 avg. = $78/bbl
91.1
59.167.9 75.4 75.9 78.0 73.9 84.460
80
52.7 44.1
0
20
40
FO Dubai ULG95 MOP'S HSD MOP'S
1Q/08 2Q/08 3Q/08 4Q/08 1Q/09 2Q/09 3Q/09 4Q/09 1Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10 4Q/10
Dubai 91.1 116.8 113.3 52.7 44.1 59.1 67.9 75.4 75.9 78.0 73.9 84.4
Price (USD/BBL)
38
FO 74.6 92.6 102.6 45.1 39.0 53.4 64.9 70.9 72.8 71.4 69.1 76.1
Gasoline MOP'S 105.1 129.8 119.6 56.7 54.8 68.8 76.8 80.5 88.2 87.5 82.5 95.0
HSD MOP'S 114.4 154.5 139.5 70.5 53.2 66.4 74.9 81.6 85.2 89.5 86.3 96.038
Petrochemical Market Reference Prices: Driven by Crude Oil Price
Aromatics prices
LPG Naptha PP HDPE Benzene ParaXylene
Petrochemical prices
$/Ton$/Ton
p4Q/10 vs 3Q/10 30% 22% 13% 13%4Q/10 vs 4Q/09 22% 8% 22% 5%
y4Q/10 vs 3Q/10 14% 36%4Q/10 vs 4Q/09 11% 22%
1 419
1,6071 600
1,800
2,000
1 600
1,800
2,000
1,510
1,419
1,2711,200
1,400
1,600
1,169 1,245
1,200
1,400
1,600
832
801854
733600
800
1,000 1,051954
600
800
1,000
0
200
400
0
200
400
39
0
LPG Naphtha PP HDPE Benzene PXSource: PLATTS & ICIS 39
Dividend Policy & Historical PaymentsDividend Policy & Historical PaymentsPTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
EPS DPS % Dividend Payout
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%
43.6% 40.4%35.0%
PTT’s minimum payout ratioPTT’s minimum payout ratio
30 57
34.14 34.82
25% 25%
UNIT : Baht / shareUNIT : Baht / share
22.40
30.57
21 06
29.26
13.43
18.3321.06
11 50
7.71 8.75
2 50 2.85 4.006.75
9.25 10.50 11.50
8.00 8.5010.25
40
2.50 2.85
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 31 December 2010
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00%Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00%PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%Retail Business Alliance Co., Ltd. RBA * 49.00%Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC * 48.95%
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.34%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00%
Joint Ventures Proportionate
Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00%PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%
Associates EquityPTT Chemical Plc. PTTCH 48.68%g ,
Associates EquityKeloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00%Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00%Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd. THAPPLINE 33.19%PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00%
pTrans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%
Associates EquityThai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00%Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00%
PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00%PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME 40.00%
Joint Ventures ProportionateHMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44%PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50%
Others CostPetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00%PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67%Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 2.76%
p ( ) ,PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00%B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00%
Others CostRatchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%
Refining Associates EquityThai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10%PTT Aromatics and Refining Plc. PTTAR 48.60%IRPC Plc. IRPC 39.02%Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00%Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 28.29%
Others Fair ValueBangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
International Trading Business Group
OthersOthers Fair ValueSubsidiaries Consolidate
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Associates Equity
41
Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Associates EquityPTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%
Coal business (PTT controls 27% shareholding in Straits Asia)
Expected production boost-up from the Northern lease license
82 73 82 72 76
Sales Volume & Price Production Profile
i
8.5 9 10.7 1114
17
Sebuku
Jembayan
Avg. sales Price US$/Ton
9,210 Kt
Unit : MM Tons
10,712 Kt % QoQ %YoYVol. +6% +2% ASP +6% -7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jembayan
2,900 Kt2,855 Kt
ASP 6% 7%%YoY
Vol. +16% ASP -11% 2,741 Kt Sebuku
Jembayan
2008 2009 2010 2011 Target
2012 Target
2013 Target
JORC Coal Reserves (Total 134 MM tons)JORC Coal Resources (Total 1,538 MM tons)
Note: The average selling price is FOB basis
2009 2010 4Q/09 3Q/10 4Q/10
JORC Coal Reserves (Total 134 MM tons)Unit : MM tons
JORC Coal Resources (Total 1,538 MM tons)Unit : MM tons
Jembayan7
610
928
SebukuJembayan
S b k
42
4242
Sebuku127
As of Aug 2010 As of Aug 2010
Xayaburi’sXayaburi’s Fact SheetFact Sheet
• This project has total installed f l dcapacity of 1,285 MW, located away
from Luang Prabang approximately 80 kilometers
• A power purchase agreement to sell electricity to EGAT of 1,220 MW and to Electricite du Laos of 60 MWto Electricite du Laos of 60 MW
• The total construction period is approximately 8 years which it will be
d i l iexpected to commercial operation with in January 2019
• A concession a period of 29 years • The registered capital is Baht 800 million
Th t t l j t t i i t lp y• The total project cost is approximately
Baht 115,000 million
• PTT has jointly invested in Xayaburi
43
Power Limited (XPCL) with 25% via NateeSynergy Company Limited