2010 service innovation course bman62052 seminar 3 videotex and design
DESCRIPTION
Videotex as a case of an information service innovation where design and other features had major impacts on success and failure in different countriesTRANSCRIPT
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
Service Innovation - Case Studies 1
Videotex and the Design of Services
Ian Miles
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO This seminar:
Success and Failure in Information Technology- based services
Email and Fax
The Videotex case study
Service design and innovation
How to assess prospects for new services; how to design new services effectively?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Many IT Success StoriesBUSINESS: rapid uptake of microprocessor systems, office automation, etc.CONSUMER: home computers, CDs, DVDs, digital mobile phones…
Finding whole classes of “failure” may seem difficult.Additionally, some cases where “success” seems simply to be delayed
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Trajectory of Hype
Technology Trigger
Peak
of .Inflated ..Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Source: Gartner Group, who placed various Technologies on this
Plateau of Productivity
Slope of Enlightenment
Time
Ho
pes
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
Fax versus email - a Forecast of Business Communications
Terminals (millions)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
01978 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87
source: Mackintosh report cited in the Economist 4/8/1979
US email text
US email graphics+
Europe email text
Europe email graphics+
US fax
Europe fax
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Fax vs email
Forecast: fax would grow to low level and then decline; substituted by email which would mushroomCurious differentiation text and graphics…Actual trends: Fax took off dramatically; email grew at much slower rate through 1980sFax only gets substituted in later 1990s, after web supports large-scale use of internet
fax
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
Messages initially (often still) very plain text
Stored in “mailbox”, read on-screen or printed out
Computer skills, access to “terminals” & ISPs
required
Data manipulable
Arrival in doubt
Spam, Viruses, Scams.
Equipment costs reduced in ’80s
Handwritten, typed, drawn
Delivered as hard copy
Telephone numbers, available skills
No new subscriber service
Require data re-entry
Features of Fax versus Email
More incremental to phone service Radical new service with new suppliers Familiar skills & work organisation New access to info., new functionality
Both have critical mass issues – network externalities
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO LessonsForecasting is very difficult (especially about future) [Yogi Berra]Functionality is valued by engineers and technicians, but means different things and is only one factorImportant influences related to prestige, network externalitiesAlongside Equipment and Service Costs, Learning Costs may be huge deterrent As may destabilisation of social relations and threats to status – and customs (e.g. what is a legal document)Aesthetics and trust related to new media can play a major role.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO A Case from “Prehistory”
A radical new consumer service (also with business markets anticipated)Providing useful information and some entertainmentInnovators were mainly (at that time -1970s/80s) public sector firms – telecommunications “authorities”Lessons about new service development and design; about marketing and use of market research
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Videotex a.k.a. Viewdata
UK version – Prestel - “A world of information at your fingertips”
cf G Thomas & I Miles 1989 Telematics in Transition Longmans [Gibson in Technology Review - Web0.1]
The Videotex Revolution
The Viewdata Revolution
Viewdata and the Information Society
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO The features of videotexAccess to computers and databases for the masses (“telematique grand publique”)Pioneered by PTOs – UK Sam Fedida at Martlesham Labs, invented c1972 (ideas in air from late ’60s), UK launch 1979. 1970s: no home computers, no broadband solution in UK, Germany, etc. (not France): use telephone + television sets. A terminal to connect TV set to phone system, a keyboard to communicate with the box. 40x24 text characters in display (not pixels); some simple graphics: same standard and same “feel” as teletext (aka Teledata) broadcast with TV - 1974 CEPT1 standard – teletext invented c1972 BY BBC labs, arose out of same ferment)1200 download /75 upload baud rates – info. access
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
Prestel
Set-top box
Small keyboard
Simple menus
Request “pages” of information
Aimed at consumers, offices, businesses
Assymetric speeds
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Prestel
Monthly subscription; Many
pages free, some charge
Information from major services
Newspapers, publishers, etc
Home banking
Person to person email – slow coming, famous hacker case in 1984 – but message boards popular
Invention in ’70s; first public demonstration 1975;
first field trial 1978 (how were results used?); launch of service 1979;
forecast several million subscribers in a few years.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
Teletext: a source of competition?
Free; Broadcast services; bundled with TV (remote control taking off) & manufacturers enthused; feels “interactive” in providing access to screens of remote information.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO The Prestel story
Introduced by Post/Telecomms public “authority”Pilot studies not taken seriously – innovators were convinced that this was wave of futureExpectations of massive take up – millions – but slow growth, never much more than 100k adopters in UKMany information services put material online – but TV industry was uncooperative (so problems with a major complementary asset)Resistance to tying up TV and telephone? Disinterest in information content (and Teletext competition)Consumer adoption low: mainly business use (esp. travel), some hobbyists (and hobbyist VTX)Sold to FT, wound down in 1990s.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRONot just a UK story: Many Other Countries introduced Videotex
New service markets for PTOs
Videotex:a new MASS market
Support for consumer electronics/ telecomms/IT industries – and perhaps media and publishing
Move into information
society = better-informed, more
competitive society – with
advanced services (for
export?)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
Videotex adoption – not always the UK path
France
Germany
UK
1999: France c10m; Germany -
- - - and UK c0
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Miniteltry it at
http://www.minitelfr.com/Uk/home/index.html
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIROMinitel Design
French videotex service. Terminal provided free. TV/phone not tied up. Payment hourly. Use prompted by withdrawal of phone book – critical mass – tens of millions of users by ‘90s (many purchases of superior terminals)
Much scope in system to innovate and plug in private services; messagerie and minitel rose very popular, a cultural phenomenon
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Minitel/Teletel History
Nora/Minc report, Plan TelematiqueTrials from 1978-81 by PTT discovery of importance of messagingNew communications legislation, political accommodation with press1982: launch; 1983: electronic directory – 1984: terminals distributed instead of ‘phone directoriesMany service providers appeared (10k + by 1989)Tax on messageries roses (how effective?)British and German forecasts highly optimistic – French (lower) forecasts were exceeded!
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Minitel “facts”In the late 1990s, Minitel connections were stable at 100 million a month plus 150 million online directory inquiries, in spite of growing Internet use.In 1998, Minitel generated € 832 million ($ 824 million) of revenue, of which € 521 million was channelled by France Télécom to service providers. IM note – I recall WSJ report in ‘90s saying that Minitel had cost $10bn)Minitel sales in the late 1990s accounted for almost 15% of sales at France's biggest mail order companies La Redoute and Les Trois Suisses. In 2005, the most popular Minitel application was Teleroute, the online real-time freight exchange, which accounted for nearly 60% of Minitel usage.In 2005 there were 351 million calls for 18.5 million hours of connection, generating € 206 million of revenue, of which € 145 million were redistributed to 2000 service providers (these numbers are declining at around 30% per year). There were still 6 million terminals owned by France Télécom, which had been left with their users in order to avoid recycling problems. The main uses were banking and financial services, which benefit from Minitel's security features, and access to professional databases. France Télécom mentions, as an example of usage, that 12 million updates to personal vitale health care cards were made through Minitel.[1]Source: Wikipedia Feb 2007 See also:
http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Minitel
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Minitel in declineThe web was slow to take off in France, but…
From the Bilan Minitel 2005http://www.leskiosques.com/V3/solutions/minitel/doc/bilan_minitel_2005.pdf
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Several US versionsAT&T Sceptre videotex - terminal introduced in Miami, October 1983. Wireless keyboard, with modem attached to an ordinary TV - delivered news, weather, sports, stock reports, banking, shopping, email, etc. The Sceptre initially sold for $900 with a monthly fee of $12; the service plan was changed to $39.95 a month with free rental of the box. Marketed in about a dozen cities.Very low adoption rate.Withdrawn in 1986.
http://www.cedmagic.com/history/sceptre.jpg
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Early Competition in the US
Computer-telephone system-computer networkingE.g COMPUSERVE –
1969: Compu-Serv Network: business services (time-sharing, then information access) Consumer information service developed despite internal opposition: in 1978 marketed through Radio Shack, as MicroNET. Initially permitted since it used the computers during evening hours, when business use was low. Email 1978 (and to Internet 1989), chatlines 1980. Payment: hourly rate Expanded to Japan, UK, Germany; c 400,000 subscribers by late ’80s…Competing services included AOL (monthly subscription)But all faced big problems with advent of World Wide Web on Internet, and slow to respond. Compuserve acquired by AOL late ’90s.
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIROHow to explain different
trajectories?
Schnedier et al 1991:
Terminal design and provision
Systems architecture & service provision
Billing systems
Regulatory constraints & political support
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Design LessonsNew learningConflict with established routinesCosts and uncertaintiesNetwork externalitiesNeed to pilot and market research – user requirements may not match innovator view of functionalitiesOpenness to reinvention, new complementary servicesOther lessons?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO Conclusions
Take-off of Web (and Minitel) indicates that there is strong demand for new IT-based services of these sortsThe right services, with the right content/communication partners -on the right platforms?What other lessons need to be drawn?
Hoe can we design service (systems)?
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO
End of Presentation(some extra slides follow)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIROHow to explain different
trajectories? 1
Terminal design and provision
Britain
Adapted TV set; later set-top box, PCs –
Producers were private firms
Germany
Adapted TV set; later “multitel”)- Producers were private firms
France
Mintel dedicated terminal, distributed free – produced for France Telecom
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIROHow to explain different
trajectories? 2
Systems architecture & service provision
Britain
Initially closed system (external computers allowed in 1982; one update system with several central databases; private information providers with a common carrier (changes in 1983 when BT becomes IP)
Germany
One central database, regional sub-bases, in a hierarchical network, with interconnection to private computers (expensive and cumbersome); private information providers; supposedly equitable
France
Transpac (packet-switched data) network; service computers and privately owned databases networked; trigger service of e-phone book; private IPS otherwise with DGT licensing access to Kiosque biling service
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIROHow to explain different
trajectories? 3
Billing systems
Britain
Subscription fee; phone charges; page-based charges for some services; charge appears on phone bill
Germany
Subscription fee; phone charges; page-based charges for some services; charge appears on phone bill
France
No subscription: charged by time using services; up to 1 euro per minute but most services much cheaper; charge appears on phone bill
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIROHow to explain different trajectories? 4, finally
Regulatory constraints & political support
Britain
Not very politicised (though some campaigning for broadband); no specific regulations
Germany
Highly politicised, restrictive regime
France
Politicised but seen as significant industrial policy and specific regulations liberal
Long debate over PTT break-up and
privatisation
Growth of VANS
market for business
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO World Wide Web
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
1969
Jun-
74
Aug-8
1
Aug-8
3
Oct-8
5
Nov-8
6
Jul-8
8
Jan-
89
Oct-8
9
Jan-
91
Oct-9
1
Apr-9
2
Oct-9
2
Apr-9
3
Oct-9
3
Jul-9
4
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Date
No
of
Ho
sts
Host Count
Adjusted Host Count
NUA’s "educated guess“ as to how many are online worldwide (May 2002):
World Total - 580.78 mAfrica - 6.31 mAsia/Pacific - 167.86 mEurope -185.83 mMiddle East - 5.12 mCanada/USA - 182.67 mLatin America - 32.99 m Compiled by: Nua Internet Surveys
Number of Web Hosts
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052
MIIRO