2011-11-16%20check-in%20on%20sprawl
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http://www.growsmartmaine.org/sites/default/files/2011-11-16%20Check-in%20on%20sprawl.pdfTRANSCRIPT
A 2010 CHECK-IN ON SPRAWL2010 GrowSmart Maine Annual Meeting
THREEMIGRATIONS
• Rural Out-Migration• Sprawl• From NE Metro
1st Migration(rural-to- urban)
2nd Migration(sprawl)
3rd Migration(to small metro
and coastal)
Driving force Lost jobs Suburbanlifestyle
Quality of life
Destination Urban regions Towns w/in 40 min. commute
Small urbanregions, coastal
Demographics Youth leaving,older left behind
Family-aged,middle-class
Youngprofessionals,young retirees
Effect Impoverishedrural region
Rural overtakenby suburb,stressed hubs
Economicvitality, risinghousing costs
Public policy Renew growth Direct growth Embrace,manage growth
PROFILE OF THE THREE MIGRATIONS
Northern Half –dominated by rural out-migration(-100,000 1950-2010)
Central Interior – moderateout-migration and sprawl(-3,000 1950-2010)
Coastal Region –in-migration and sprawl(+143,000 1950-2010)
THREE MIGRATIONS
Third Migration – from NE metropolisto small metro and coastal areas
• Rural Out-Migration• Sprawl• From NE Metro
NET MIGRATION BY REGION, 2000-2010
-19354
-6708
40759
-730
18697
22331
-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Northern Maine
Central Interior
South Coastal
1990-20002000-2010
NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE
Source: Charles Colgan
2.0%
1.8%
-3.9%
12.7%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Centers
Contiguous
Slow Growth
High Growth
CH. IN POPULATION, 2000-2010, CENTERS V HIGH GROWTH
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Portland
South Portland
Biddeford
Scarborough
Windham
Gorham
Buxton
Waterboro
2000 - 2010 % Pop. Change, Major Urban v Major Suburban
SERVICE CENTERS, 2000-2010: MORE GROWTH THAN DECLINE
Number 2010 Pop.2000-2010 % Change
Growing 38 423,074 +4.8%Declining 25 142,001 -5.6%Total 63 565,075 +2.0%
57.8%54.8%
49.1% 46.8%43.8% 42.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Shares of Population: Service Centers v
High Growth Towns
63 centers138 high growth
“Tempers flare at Frankfort hearing on Mount Waldo wind project” (BDN, Oct. 27)
RURAL CONVERSION1960-2050
RURAL TO SUBURBAN DENSITIES, 1990 - 2010
Portland
Bangor
A FEW IMPLICATIONSOF EXURBAN GROWTH
89.5%
78.6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Drive alone
Carpool
Public transit
Walked
Other
Worked at home
20002010
21.2 23.3
0102030
2000 2010
Average travel time to work, Maine
(minutes)
How Mainers Get to Work – 2000 v 2010
1935 43
23
383538
5864
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960 2000 2010
No. of Maine Municipalities Over 2500 – 5000 Populations
5000+
3500-4999
2500-3499
Maine Municipal Expenditures by Population Size(2002 Survey Estimates)
47%58% 57%
66%71% 71% 67%
10%
9% 11%
12%11% 12%
15%
17%
10% 9%
7%6% 6% 7%
13% 11% 11%7% 5% 4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20+ 10-20 5-10 3.5-5 2-3.5 1-2 <1Population in Thousands
Public SafetyGen. Admin.Public WorksEducation
Source data: Me. Municipal Association
WHY TOWNS ARE VULNERABLE TO TAX HIKESIN THE AGE OF SPRAWL
29%34%43%53%
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA, STANDISH, 1970-2000(1994 DOLLARS)