2011-2030 airbus pocket guide delivering the future

8/4/2019 2011-2030 Airbus Pocket Guide Delivering the Future

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/2011-2030-airbus-pocket-guide-delivering-the-future 1/48

P O C K E T G U I D E

Global Market Forecast

2011-2030

deliveringthe future



Global Market Forecast 2

Global Market Forecast

2011-2030

Passenger aircraft edition

Executive Summary 12

Passenger Trafc 18

Demand for Aircraft 24

By Segment (SA, TA, VLA)By region

Drivers & Challenges 32 Population Growth/Urbanisation

Network evolutionFuel Issue

Summary Results 44



Dear Reader,

I you are reading this pocket guide, there isno doubt that you are interested in the uture o civil aviation,with the majority o you, like us,passionate about the industry and keen to playa part in its continued positive development;not only or those directly involved in the business, but orthe billions o passengers who today and in the uture willneed and have access to its bene ts.

There is no denying aviation’s importance in terms o socialand economic growth and the huge strides it has taken in

a very short space o time, not only in terms o supply,but environmentally, with each aircra t or example 70%more uel e cient than just orty years ago.

Aviation's value to the modern world was emphasisedrecently with the rapid recovery o passenger tra c

ollowing the worst nancial crisis experienced or decades,

a resilience that was also in evidence ollowing prioreconomic cycles.

This year, in order to make it easier or you to access thein ormation in the Airbus Global Market orecast, we havealso produced this pocket guide, a simple ormat romwhich to retrieve its key ndings on the passenger f eet and

uture deliveries. Our orecast or the reight market will bepublished separately in uture, ref ecting its importance to

Airbus and the industry.

In producing GMF2011, it became clear that there are ourkey messages that it would be use ul to highlight by meanso an introduction…

Your forecasting team

deliveringthe future




1

The expression the “miracle o f ight” is seldom heard thesedays, it is taken or granted that i we want to visit a clientin the US, Europe or the emerging markets in Asia, we cana ordably get on an aircra t and be there the next day. I wewant to visit our riends or relatives who have moved awaywith their jobs or example, it’s easy, no more di cult thana ew clicks o a mouse and a trip to the airport. But justbecause we don’t say it much in today’s modern world, itdoesn’t mean that f ying is no longer a man-made miracle.I someone were to say that they were going to take you toan altitude where you couldn’t breathe, where you wouldexperience temperatures around -50 degrees, and then leaveyou there or anything between one and ourteen hours, youwouldn’t be very keen to go with them. Yet that is exactlywhat 2 billion passengers do every year, without even a secondthought, as they f y to every corner o the world.Even when economic crises or other events serve to dam-pen demand, as we have seen rom time to time, people still

need to f y, with air tra c quickly returning to more normalgrowth levels. Even during a period when aviation had threeo its severest tests ollowing 9/11, SARs, and the recent

nancial crisis, aviation still managed to grow 45%, a actthat can only mean people really do need and want to f y.

What about the uture? Airbus commissioned an internatio-nal study o over 10,000 people around the world, who willbe the passengers o 2050, and what they expect rom airtravel in the uture. From these respondents, 69% said theyexpected to f y more, with the reasons in order o impor-tance being, 1 economic growth, 2 a desire to see moreo the world, 3 the need to see riends and amily spreadacross the globe, and 4 greater exibility betweenhome and the workplace.However, signi cantly, they also stated that reducing CO 2

emissions was one o the top two areas where they wouldlike and expect to see technological advances. The goodnews is, so do we. In the last 40 years, manu acturers

People value f ight ,



have reduced the uel burn o aircra t and there ore CO2

emissions by 70%, noise by 75%, with work continuing todeliver urther improvements. In the last ten years the de-mand or jet uel has increased 3%, whilst tra c in termso RPKs (Revenue Passenger Kilometres) has increased45%. Aviation will continue to strive to become ever moreeco-e cient, reducing uel burn per aircra t to the bene to the environment and airlines, who ace the prospect o

uel being a signi cant portion o their operating costs in theyears to come.

0

1970 1975 1980 19901985 1995 2005 20102000

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

5.0

Source: ICAO, Airbus

O i l C r i s i s

O i l C r i s i s

G u l f

C r i s i s

A s i a n

C r i s i s

W T C A t t a c k

S A R S

F i n a n c i a l C r i s i s

+45%

Air travel has proved to be resilientto external shocks

but not at any cost




2

One component o tra c growth, as always, will be theexisting travellers who will simply need to f y more. In asurvey Airbus conducted recently on the uture o f ying,respondents suggested they expected to nearly double thenumber o times they f ew each year in the uture. However,with emerging economies around the world rapidly growingtheir economies and as a result growing the wealth o theircitizens, more and more people will be able to bene t rom

More People will have access to the bene ts o f ight

0

5 , 0

0 0

1 0 , 0

0 0

1 5 , 0

0 0

2 0 , 0

0 0

2 5 , 0

0 0

Trips* per capita - 2010

Seychelles

Barbados

Malta

*Passengers originating from respective countryNote: GDP in 2005 US$Source: IATA PaxIS, Global Insight, Airbus

Cyprus

Bahrain

Bahamas

St Lucia

Fiji

Cape verde

Samoa

JordanCosta Rica

Malaysia

Mauritius

Czech rep.

OmanLatvia

Saudi Arabia

Belarus

Angola

SwazilandLiberia

Senegal

Bangladesh

Lesotho

Bolivia

Iraq

Chad

Chile

Uruguay

Slovakia

Maldives

Brunei

Slovenia

South Korea

TrinidadIsrael

Portugal

Spain

Greece

Hungary

World average

Equatorial Guinea

Brazil

China

India

Russia

Emerging economies: more people can y



3 0 , 0

0 0

3 5 , 0

0 0

4 0 , 0

0 0

4 5 , 0

0 0

5 0 , 0

0 0

5 5 , 0

0 0

0.01

0.1

1

2010 Real GDP per Capita

10

NewZealand Singapore Macao

IrelandIceland

SwitzerlandDenmark

Netherlands

Sweden

USA UK

Belgium

Finland

Japan

Canada

Italy

HK

UAE

Australia

GermanyFrance

Kuwait

aviation and fy or the rst time. This e ective and conti-nuing democratisation o aviation, and something that ishappening every day.

Today, whilst having an aviation in rastructure that is alreadylarge and growing ast, the people o China take just0.2 trips per person per year. This compared to the largestdomestic aviation market in the world in the US, where theirfying citizens take on average nearly 2 trips per person peryear. Increasing wealth will however move these countriesalong the fight curve, fying more and helping to drive our

orecast passenger tra c growth at a 4.8% average annualgrowth rate per annum over the next 20 years.




Forty years ago, 76% o the world’s tra c f ew rom, to orbetween North America, Western Europe and Japan. Today,as more o the world has embraced f ight and been able totake advantage o its bene ts this share has dramaticallyreversed. Some 57% is now centered in other parts o theworld. This is not to say that these original regions will not

also grow, they will, almost doubling their tra c over ourorecast period.

0 1990

Rest of world

Traffic within & between USA, Canada, Western Europe and Japan

1970 2010 2030

4.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

6.0

2.0

70%

57%

43%30%

37%

63%76%

24%

Source: Airbus GMF 2011

RPK (trillion)

70% o 2030 tra fc volumeswill be between expanding regions



3Single-aislesconnecting people

73% o the eet by 2030

71% o new deliveriesin the next 20 years

87% o all routes

78% o seats

87% o requencies

78% o the eet in 2010 Aircra t≥ 100 seats

87%o all route

Single-aisle aircra t, like the A320 amily and the 737NG,are a very signi cant part o today’s aviation network. Takingaircra t above 100 seats, 87% o all routes are f own bysingle-aisles and 78% o all seats o ered globally are on asingle-aisle aircra t. They really do connect people.

This is a broad segment, covering rom about 100 seats to210 seats. It is no surprise there ore that the most success-

ul products in this market are those that o er a completeamily, o ering maximum choice and f exibility or airlines,

with the largest o these very o ten needing the completespectrum o size on o er. As single aisle aircra t are an importantcomponent o the f eet today and will still be in 20 yearstime, it is also no surprise that this segment should becomethe ocus o new entrants and e orts to reduce the environ-mental impact o aviation. Today, there is an opportunity to

urther reduce the environmental ootprint o these aircra tthrough new engine and aerodynamic technologies, but

also to reduce their cost o operation by reducing uel burn. This is also signi cant due to the act that as uel pricesrise, uel becomes an ever increasing share o an airline’soperating costs. At Airbus, the A320neo will reduce uelburn by 15% when it comes into service in 2015. Anotherbig step in aviation’s development, magni ed by the impor-

tance o this segment to the overall aviation network.




4

Whilst a key design goal o new aircra t is to reduce the uelthat they burn and, there ore, the CO 2 emitted, it is alsoimportant to scale the aircra t to market requirements andin particular, to the ever growing numbers o people who willhave access to aviation and will f y between the increasingnumber o aviation mega-cities and hubs. By 2030, therewill be 87 such cities, increasing rom 39 in 2010, expan-sion driven by population growth and a rapidly urbanizingworld. Today, about 50% o the world’s population lives incities, by 2030, this will be nearly 60%. More importantly

rom an aviation perspective, 91% o the people f ying long-haul in 2030 will want to f y to, rom or between these verybig points. These dense markets are exactly the ones orwhich the A380 was designed; o ering the right capacity atthe right operating cost and right uel burn per seat or theairlines operating in these markets.

Very Large aircraftconnecting the world

Seattle

Santiago

2010 mega-cities

Additional aviation mega-cities from 2010

Rio deJanero

Luanda

Accra Lagos

Barcelona

Bogota

Panama

BostonDetroit

Philadelphia

Lisbon

Dublin Vienna

IstanbulTehranKuwait

Addis

Dhaka

Nairobi

Perth Auckland

Brisbane

Ho Chi MinhManilaTaipei

JeddahCairo

Mexicocity

Lima

Dallas

Destinations with more than 10 000 daily long haul pax

87 aviation "mega-cities" in 2030



There are no aircra t today that can o er better uel burn perseat and there ore eco-e ciency than the A380.

The Airbus Global Market Forecast is able to project theuture routes on which Very Large Aircra t (VLAs) will operate

in the uture. It is clear that many o these are the world’smajor population centers and the places where peoplelive, work and travel. I single-aisle aircra t are connectingpeople, VLAs will connect the world.

Level of RPK from/to each city in 2029

100-250 million 125-1000 million 1-5 billion >5 billion

Hubs important today and tomorrow




E x E

c u t i v E

s u m m a r y

The speed o the aviation industries recovery rom the latest2008/2009 nancial crisis, is testament to the importance o aviation to the world’s businesses and to people in their dayto day lives. Our orecast suggests that tra c will more thandouble in the coming 20 years as aviation becomes moreaccessible to those in emerging markets as well as the moretraditional markets in Asia, Europe and North America.

People will increasingly travel between the major populationcenters around the globe, developing, strengthening and

North America

Asia / Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

C.I.S.

World network evolution rom 2010 to 2030

2010

Executive

summary



By plotting the actual network operated in 2010 andrelative to our orecast network in 2030, it is clear to seethat the market will grow signi cantly, with Asia growing inimportance over time, to become the largest single market.

C.I.S.

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

North America

Asia / Pacific

Europe

2030

sustaining relationships in a way that only ace to acecommunication allows.

At the same time we in the industry will seek to continueto innovate to improve the whole f ying experience or pas-sengers, and to reduce the cost or both airlines and theenvironment: a goal that has been at the ore ront o theindustry or the last orty years, as it is today and will be inthe uture



E x E

c u t i v E

s u m m a r y


The world’s passenger aircra t feet (above 100 seats) willgrow rom 15,000 at the beginning o 2011 to just over31,000 by 2030. At the same time, some 10,500 aircra t

rom the existing feet will be replaced by more eco-e cientmodels. O these, 3,400 will be recycled back into passen-ger service, where they too will replace older generation lesseco-e cient aircra t with another airline.It is also orecast that 2,200 aircra t will be converted to reigh-ters with the remaining 8,300 permanently retired or with-drawn rom service.

The Airbus orecast continues to predict that the greatestdemand or passenger aircra t will come rom airlines in theUnited States, the People’s Republic o China and Germany,with their mix o global, low-cost and charter airlines.Europe will receive 22% o the total, with North America and

Asia-Paci c taking 22% and 34% respectively. In addition,the world’s airlines will require about 5,000 smaller aircra t,either jet or turbo-prop ( rom 19 to 100 seats) to serve

regional demand, especially in the US and Europe.

20-year demand or 26,921 aircra t worthUS$ 3.2 trillion

5,000

10,000

20,000

15,000

30,000

35,000

25,000

0Beginning 2011 2030

Fleet size

+ 3.8 % per annum

31,424

15,002

Growth

Replaced

Stay in service

16,422

10,499

3,4401,063

Newaircraft26,921

Recycled

Passenger aircraft >100 seats (excluding freighters)



Globally, deliveries o single-aisle aircra t rom 100 to 210seats are the most signi cant in terms o volume and value,with these aircra t supplying nearly 80% o all the seatsf own today and 43% o the total, calculated at sticker

prices.

New passenger aircra t demand willaverage 1,350 per year

0Single-aisle Small

twin-aisleIntermediate

twin-aisle Very large

aircraft

10,000

20,000

25,000

15,000

5,000 1,3311,9074,518

19,165

Source: Airbus

17%

28%

7%

15%

5%

14%

% unit

% value

71%

43%



E x E

c u t i v E

s u m m a r y


The twin-aisle segment (250-400 seats), combining smalland intermediate types, is broad in terms o seating andrange, but also in terms o operations which vary romdomestic and regional routes (where today the A330-300is excelling in Asia or example) to inter-continental f ying,where they per orm a key role connecting the large aviation“mega” hubs to secondary airports, a role in which the

A350XWB is soon set to excel.

New aircra t demand by region

76% 80%

84 %16 %

2 0 %

15%43 % 41% 1%

17%

3%

4%

North America Middle East

Europe

5,950 899

5,901 1,882

CIS



72 %82%

25%

3

16%

2 %

Latin America Africa

2,028 1,101

62%

3 1%

7%

Asia-Pacific

9,160

Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very large aircraft

Whilst the 24% o deliveries is small compared to single-aisle delivery volumes, this segment will account or 43% o deliveries by value.

Finally, Very Large Aircra t like the A380 will increasingly play akey role connecting the world, primarily through key aviation“mega” hubs like London Heathrow, Dubai and Hong Kong.

Today, we already see the versatility o this class o aircra tin moving people e ciently domestically, regionally andinternationally.




P a

s s E n

g E r t r a F F i c

Despite two o the most di cult downturns in aviationhistory, both periods in which tra c growth was negative

or a time, tra c in terms o revenue passenger kilometers(RPKs), has grown more than 45% since 2000. Comparing2000 with 2010, it is clear rom where much o the growth iscoming, with the emerging markets o China and India morethan doubling, and the Middle-East, with its airline’s levera-ging the bene ts they have in terms o geography, wealthand global demographics, growing tra c nearly 230%.

North America+11%

Latin America+29%

Today's passenger tra fc 46% above 2000 levels

Latest trafc

projections



ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic)

Source: OAG, comparing month of September, Airbus

Europe+34%

Middle East+229%

Africa+87%

CIS+146%

China+124%

Asia-Pacific+34%

IndianSubcontinent

+141%

re-con rm growth

Even markets, that are generally considered more maturehave grown, with North America and Europe growing theirinter-regional passenger tra c 11% and 34% respectively.




TRaFFiC FOReCasT4.8% AAGR 2010-2030

1/3 RPKs by a carriers5.8% aaGR growth in a43% total RPKs n. am r c & europ carriersM ddl e t market share to 11%

10

12

86

4

2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

World annual traffic(RPKs - trillions)

Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years

AirbusGMF 2011

ICAOtotal traffic

Air traffichas doubledevery 15 years

20-year worldannual trafficgrowth 4.8%

Air travel remains a growth market

P a

s s E n

g E r t r a F F i c



TRaFFiC FOReCasT: TOP FLOWs

1 t Us Dom t c 11.1% RPK ow

Still the biggest ow in 20302 d Ch Dom t c 9.2% RPK owSignifcant growth at 7.2%3rd i tr W. europ 7.5% of RPK owEurope in 5 o the top 10 tra fc ows

20-yeargrowth

5.7%

% of 2030world RPKs

2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic

4.0%

6.1%

4.9%

5.6%

33%

23%

3.3% 20%

6%

7.4% 11%

4%

3%

CIS

Latin America

MiddleEast

North America

Europe

AsiaPacific

Africa

Traffic by airline domicileRPK (billion)

2,0001,0000 3,000 4,000 5,000

GMF 2011 - Airbus Market Research & Forecasts

20-year worldannual trafficgrowth 4.8%

Asia-Pacifc to lead in world tra fc by 2030




P a

s s E n

g E r t r a F F i c Traffic at end 2010 4.8 trillion RPKs

Traffic at end 2030 12.3 trillion RPKs

59%Global

Network

4%

Charter

5%Regional

& Affiliate

13%Ma jor

Network

15%LCC

4%Small

Network

5 6%GlobalNetwork

3%

Charter

4%Regional

& Affiliate

14%Ma jor

Network

19%LCC

4 %Small

Network

Airline segmentation - world tra fc evolution



Largest 20 tra fc ows in 2030

I world tra c is segmented by airline type, it can be seenthat with 70%, Global and Major Network carriers will conti-nue to per orm most o the world’s tra c. The Low Costmodel will continue to grow its share to 19% o RPKs by2030, indicating that there is still opportunity to expand thismodel, particularly in Asia.

20-yeargrowth

2.4%

% of 2030world RPKs

7.2%

3.2%

3.9%

5.7%

4.3%

5.1%

11.1%

9.3%

7.5%

5.4%

2.3%

9.8% 2.6%

2.2%

2.2%

6.8%

6.4%

6.2%

5.7%

6.2%

6.6%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

4.6% 1.4%

5.5% 1.4%

6.6% 1.4%

3.8% 1.4%

7.1% 1.4%

5.6% 1.7%

Middle East-Western Europe

Domestic India

United States-Western Europe

Intra WesternEurope

Domestic PRC

DomesticUnited States

Asia-Western Europe

South America-Western Europe

Asia - PRC

Intra Asia

Central Europe-Western Europe

Indian Sub-Middle East

Domestic Brazil

Domestic Asia

North Africa-Western Europe

Middle East-United States

Asia-Middle East

PRC-United States

Japan-United States

PRC-Western Europe

Traffic by airline domicileRPK (billion)

4002000 600 800 1000 1200 1400

GMF 2011 - Airbus Market Research & Forecasts




The range o seating in the single-aisle segment is broadwith the types segmented between 100 to 210 seats. Our

orecast predicts that the centre o gravity or the categorywill remain at 150 seats. However, larger capacity types willsee more signi cant volumes than smaller types, with 7,600deliveries expected in 175 and 210 seat categories over theperiod. It is interesting to note that, rom our analysis, 50%o deliveries will be to airlines who need deliveries acrossthree or more single aisle segments.

0125100 150 175 210

2,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

3,000

1,000

4,757

2,864

6,429

3,380

1,735


Number of new aircraft

Aircraft segment

Single-aisle 2011-2030 new passenger aircra tdeliveries

Single-aisle

19,000 reasons to deliver the best

D E m a n D F

O r a i r

c r a F t



s gl l t l rg11,700 aircra t representing 78% o the eetglobally. By 2030, orecast to stand at 73%.

Fl t to doubl23,000 aircra t, an average annual eetgrowth o 3.4% per annum.

19,200new aircra t deliveries

40% r pl c m t11,300aircra t or growth.

50% to North Americanand European markets




D E m a n D F

O r a i r

c r a F t

Bro d gm t,250-400 seats

Fl t to doubl to 7,100 aircra t

40% demand replacement

3,800 aircra t or growth

44% deliveries to Asia

32% to N.America and Europe

>12% to the Middle East

D E m a n D F

O

Twin-aisle

Broad segmentation,broad demand

The majority o demand will be ocused on the 250 and300 seat segments with 70% or 4,500 deliveries made to

airlines rom these segments. The remaining 1,900 aircra twill be rom the larger segments in the twin-aisle category,including aircra t up to 400 seats like

the A350-1000XWB.



0300250 350 400

1,000

2,000

2,500

1,500

500

7011,206

2,1562,362


Number of new aircraft

Aircraft segment

2,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

4,000

0

Beginning 2011 2030

Fleet size

+ 4.0 % per annum

7,105

3.264

Growth

Replaced

Stay in service

3,841

2,584

571109

Newaircraft6,425

Recycled

Passenger aircraft >− 100 seats (excluding freighters)

Twin-aisle 2011-2030 new passenger aircra tdeliveries

Twin-aisle eet in service evolution




D E m a n D F

O r a i r

c r a F t

Very large aircraft

Efcient Flexible

av r g z cr gin VLA segment 2010 GMF vs 2011 GMF

45% deliveries to Asia

19% to European airlines Asia-Europe ow is a driver

23% to Middle EastGeographical advantage exploited

DXB, PeK, HKG, LHRto be top VLA airports by 2030

2021-203057

% of worlddeliveries

5,9%

North America2011-2020

22

2021-203038


3.1%

Latin America2011-2020

3



Optimised

10LAX

19SFO

5JFK

4LHR

6CDG

14FRA

1DXB

18GRU

20ICN

1 1N R T

2PEK

3HKG

8DEL

13BOM 17

CAN

7SIN

12BKK

16SYD

9PVG

15SHA

Source Airbus

Based on number of aircraft

By 2030, 12 o the 20 largest VLA airports

will be in Asia-Pacifc

New deliveries o VLA aircra t by region

2021-2030371


45.0%

Asia-Pacific2011-2030

228

2021-203027


2.9%

Africa2011-2020

11

2021-2030186


22.7%

Middle East2011-2020

116

2021-203010


1.6%

CIS2011-2020

122021-2030134


18.8%

Europe2011-2020

116




D E m a n D F

O r a i r

c r a F t

Asia-Pacifc: to drive world demand

Latin America

Latin America

Latin America

Large replacement market / Mature domestic marketStill developing international market / Largest freight base

High growth / Large developing marketsLarge cities / Fast developing LCCs

Sustained growth / Still untapped Central European marketsStrong long haul international market / Asia’s largest international market

Latin America

Latin America

Latin America

opean mar

market

Asia-Pacific

20-year new passenger aircraft demand >100 seats (excluding freighters)

Europe & CIS

North America

5,901 aircraft demandUS$557 billion

9,160 aircraft demandUS$1.3 trillion


62%

4%

19%

77%

1%15%

84%

7%

31%

A regional

overview



Latin America, Middle East & A rica to represent19% o 20-year new passenger aircra t demand

Stability and new confidence / Economies to grow further Aviation resistant to downturn / Many emerging markets


Central to world population & wealth / 5 billion people next doorGlobal ambition and vision / High growth


Home of the next India / Economic promise to realitySustaining the momentum / Intra-regional market untapped

Latin America

Latin America

Latin America

Latin America

grow furt

Latin America

n people n

Latin America

reality

20-year new passenger aircraft demand >100 seats (excluding freighters)

Latin America

Middle East

Africa


82%

2%16%

41%

16%

43%

72%

3%25%




D r i v E r

s &

c h a l l E n

g E s

+ Dr v r• Economic growth driven by emerging

economies• Yield decrease (-0.4% yearly average in real

terms)• Deregulation in Asia, Latin America, Africa• Tourism development• Rise of the "emerging economies"

middle classes

• Hubs & secondary cities with connectingand large point to point tra fc• LCCs in Latin America, Middle East, Africa, Asia

When Airbus is compiling its orecast each year, it must as-sess which actors are likely to drive or enable the growthand shape o our industry in the uture. But equally, wemust consider the risks and challenges that may hinder orchange our outlook. The past is always a good place tostart or as Edmund Burke stated in the 1700’s "Those whodon't know history are destined to repeat it".

The uture:

driversand challenges



20,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

60,000

70,00080,000

90,000

100,000

40,000

02010 2030

Real GDP (billion US$)

Contribution to 2010-2030 real GDP growth

Developing economies:4%Other emerging economies:17%

BRIC economies:39% Advanced economies:40%

Emerging economies expected to account

or 60% and developing o the world economicgrowth rom 2010 to 2030

BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China)

BRIC + other emerging/developing

Advanced

Many o the astest growingows are to, rom and betweenthese regions and countries.

2030 GDP COnTRiBUTiOn

39%

60%

40%




D r i v E r

s &

c h a l l E n

g E s

Population

to drive the market

BRIC + Other emerging (54 countries)

Developing countries

Advanced (31 countries)2010 POPULaTiOn

69%

16%

15%

Together with GDP and yield, population is one o the keydrivers o air tra c growth. The large and growing populationso the emerging markets, combined with their increasingwealth, particularly in Asia, will help to drive growth in thecoming years.

Additional countries regularly eeding air travelgrowth

1970

adv c d co om

• 31 countries• 15% of world population

in 2010• 1 billion people in 2010

BRiC co om


in 2010

• 2.9 billion people in 2010

1990



0

1,000

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1,500

500

2010 Population (millons)

Advancedeconomies- 31 countries- 15% of world

population

BRICeconomies- 4 countries- 42% of world

population

Otheremergingeconomies- 50 countries- 27% of world

population

Developingeconomies- 119 countries- 16% of world

population

Emerging countries

Emerging countries representing 69% o worldpopulation in 2010

The propensity to travel in a given country is closely linkedto the GDP per capita and the wealth and disposable incomeo the people living there.

2030 2050

Oth r m rg gco om


in 2010• 1.9 billion people in 2010

D v lop g co om


in 2010• 1.1 billion people in 2010

2010




D r i v E r

s &

c h a l l E n

g E s

5,000

4,000

165251

333

1,740

703

105181

338

525

664

234107

313

322

3,228

680

3,000

2,000

1,000

1,845

0

Millions of people

3,249

4,884

Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus.

Sub Sahara AfricaMiddle East & North Africa

Latin America

North America

Asia-Pacific

Europe

2010 2020 2030

"Global middle class" expected to riseto 4.9 billion people by 2030,with 66% in Asia-Pacifc

Increasing wealth,

increases There is no doubt that as people become wealthier, their pro-pensity to fy increases. One measure or driver is the numbero middle class today and in the uture in a country or region.However, the de nition o middle class can vary depending



ability to fy

With increased economic activity,population and the increasing middleclasses in developing nations, it canbe expected that these countries willincreasingly contribute to the growth

in air tra fc.

people

in Asia-Pacifc

growthWORLD MiDDLe CLass in 2030

4.9 billion

66%

X2.5

on which economist you talk to. But what is clear is that theywill grow, particularly in the Asia-Paci c region, and by onede nition will grow by more than two and a hal times in num-ber by 2030.




D r i v E r

s &

c h a l l E n

g E s

Emerging

markets will growlong-haul as well as short-haul

neTWORK GROWTH

2x long-haul tra fc growth to network growth.Highest growth between A rica, Asia-Pacifc& Middle East.China to contribute to growth in Asia, and 40% o new city pairs connecting South-East Asia,the Indian subcontinent and Australia.

500%

400%

300%

200%

100% 150% 200%

Europe-AsiaIntra Africa/Middle East/Europe

Intra Africa/Asia-Pacific/Middle East

Intra Asia-Pacific

Intra AmericasTransPacific

Transatlantic

100%

20-year evolution and share of long-haul trafficfor selected traffic flows (RPK), 2010 set to 100%*

Circle diameter proportional to 2030

share on total long-haul traffic

# of nonstop city-pairs2030 vs 2010

Long-haul tra fc on routes linkingthe emerging regions will triple overthe next 20 years



500

400

300

200

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 5

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 5

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 0

20002010

AAGR:2.5%

20002010

AAGR:3.4%

Long haultraffic+6%

Long haultraffic+7%

+3% +8%

100

Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic(offered seats), base 100 in 1980

Short-haul trafficLong-haul traffic

Long-haul tra fc grew stronger than shorthaul tra fc, despite two external shocksin the last decade




D r i v E r

s &

c h a l l E n

g E s

Today, the vast majority o long-haul tra c f ows are rom, toor between a relatively small number o aviation Megacities.

We have identi ed 39 cities through which more than 90%o the world’s tra c passes. Roughly hal o this tra cconnects to another destination either via a mega or secondarycity.

Aviation mega-cities

of networks today

10,000

12,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

2010 2020 2030

Passengers

0

Monthly long-haul traffic per type of route start/endpoint (passengers)*

* Long haul traffic: flight distance > 2,000nm, excl, domestic traffic

Aviation Megacity<->

Aviation Megacity

Aviation Megacity<->

Secondary City

Secondary City<->

Secondary City

27%

24%

20%3%4%

22%

Connecting traffic

Nonstop traffic% on total long-haul traffic

More than 90% o the world's long-haultra fc starts, terminates or goes throughan Aviation Mega-city today



As well as the development o the long-haul market, theshort haul, either domestic or intra/inter-regional will alsogrow. One element in these markets that has already helped

to grow tra c are the low cost airlines and their businessmodels, which strive to maximise aircra t utilisation, andminimise costs and ares or passengers. The airlines whospecialise in this model will also help to grow uture airtravel particularly in Asia, where the model, whilst alreadyestablished, has opportunity to grow in north east Asiaand China or example. With low costs enabling low ares,the growth o this model in the region will urther stimulatetra c, by enabling some passengers the opportunity econo-mically to f y be ore they might otherwise have been able to.

at the heart

and tomorow

Long-haul tra fc passes through them

In developed markets in 2010

Aviation mega-cities in 2030

Split developed-emerging by 2030

short-haul tra fc share in 2030

Aviation mega-cities in 2010

short-haul tra fc share in 2010

aViaTiOn MeGa-CiTies

LOW COsT aiRLines

90%

2/3

87

50:50

34%of ll tr fc 2030

n w d m d

19%Enable

39

28%




D r i v E r

s &

c h a l l E n

g E s

Challenges

also to shape theIt is well understood that the aviation industry is cyclical,with economic cycles, and occasional exogenous shocksimpacting demand. At these times, the perception o peopleand businesses as much as the actual impact o theseevents, can be as detrimental. Equally, as the economiccycle moves into a more positive phase, so too does theaviation industry.However, other actors can and do infuence the industrywhich must be considered. Environmental considerationshad a broad impact in the past, with legislation on noise,supported by the industry, in the late 1990’s leading tochanges to the feet, at a cost to airlines or example.

These have reduced the impact on the neighborhoodsthat grow up around many airports, o ten as a result o theopportunities that proli erate near them.

Today, and in the uture, environmental legislation will shapethe industry. As in the past the industry will invest intechnologies and adapt their models to meet thesechallenges. However, with the slim margins and signi canteconomic and social bene ts o aviation these actionsshould be measured and global.

140

120

100

8060

40

20

0

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 1 0

2 0 2 0

2 0 3 0

WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)

Oil price (Current US$)

Oil price (Cst 2010 US$)

History Forecast



industry….Fuel is another actor that will shape the uture as theindustry continues the challenge to reduce uel burn perseat rom an environmental and operating cost perspective.Whilst long-term orecasts suggest that oil prices will rangesomething between $90 and $100 in the coming years,it is expected that there will be occasional spikes driven bysuch things as demand, supply and US dollar value. As parto our orecast process, Airbus adjusts the econometric

orecasts it uses or tra c orecasting to an oil price scena-rio with its subsequent impact on uture economic growth.

Today, manu acturers and airlines are seriously investigatingalternative “drop in” uels to help mitigate the challenges

uel brings in terms o costs, availability and environmentalimpact.

Alternatives to air travel also need to be considered in aircra tdemand orecasts. The high speed train has or a number o years been developed, in many cases with public nances,and has in some cases acted as substitute or air traveland at times as a complement. However, air transport willcontinue to demonstrate its bene ts in providing masstransportation that is e cient and cost e ective comparedto other modes, particularly or developing markets.

Feedstock growthFeedstock selection Biofuel burn

Value chain

Moving from Demonstration flights to Value Chain Projects

Biofuel uplift

Biofueltransportation

to Airport

Feedstock conversion into

Biofuel

Feedstock transportation

Feedstock crop




s u m m a r y r E

s u l t s

New passenger aircra t deliveries by region

Passenger eet development

50-seats 207 313 48

0/85-seats 273 925 284

00-seats 108 266 102

25/210 seats 682 5,451 627

Smallwin-aisle 214 ,933 128

Intermediate twin-aisle 59 911 20

VLA 38 599 22

OTAL ,581 0,398 ,231

50-seats 4,917 642 843

70/85-seats 1,557 1,619 1,843

100-seats 1,455 996 739

125/210 seats 10,232 8,246 9,184

Smalltwin-aisle 2,348 2,318 2,200

Intermediatetwin-aisle 916 787 1,120

VLA 51 508 823

TOTAL 21,476 15,116 16,752

Africa AsiaPacic CIS

Fleet 2010New Aircra t

deliveries2011-2020

New Aircra tdeliveries

2021-2030



224 169 21 503 1,485

583 311 70 ,016 3,462

406 278 72 503 1,735

4,123 1,375 707 4,465 17,430

807 281 523 632 4,518

364 53 278 222 1,907

250 41 302 79 1,331

,757 2,508 ,973 7,420 31,868

1,485 828 101 2,414

3,462 344 172 3,978

1,735 147 130 2,012

17,430 2,715 818 20,963

4,518 455 57 5,030

1,907 116 52 2,075

1,331 7 6 1,344

31,868 4,612 1,336 37,816

EuropeLatin

America & Caribbean

Middle East North America TOTAL

New Aircra tdeliveries

2011-2030Recycled Remaining in service

with same operator Fleet 2030



aiRBUs s.a.s. 31707 Bl g c C d x, Fr c© AIRBUS S.A.S. 2011 - All rights reserved, Airbus,its logo and the product names are registeredtrademarks.

Concept design by Art & CaracterePhotos by EXM company H. Goussé.

Losevsky Pavel / Ho Philip / Shutterstock.com.Computer renderings by Fixion.Illustration André Boos.

June 2011. Printed in France by Art & Caractère.

Condential and proprietary document. This documentand all in ormation contained herein is the soleproperty o AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual propertyrights are granted by the delivery o this documentor the disclosure of its content. This document shallnot be reproduced or disclosed to a third party withoutthe express written consent o AIRBUS S.A.S.

This document and its content shall not be usedor any purpose other than that or which it is supplied.

The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.They are based on the mentioned assumptionsand are expressed in good aith. Where the supportinggrounds or these statements are not shown, AIRBUSS.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereo .

The printing inks use organic pigments or minerals.There is no use of basic dyes or dangerous metals

rom the cadmium, lead, mercury or hexavalentchromium group.

The printer, Art & Caractère (France 81500),is engaged in a waste management and recyclingprogramme or all resulting by-products.

www.airbus.com/gmf

2011-2030 airbus pocket guide delivering the future

Documents