2011 Census ResultsMaking Sense of the Numbers

Godfrey St. BernardSir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies

The University of the West IndiesSt. Augustine

Trinidad and Tobago

Email: godfrey.stbernard@sta.uwi.edu or gstbiser@gmail.com

SALISES ForumInstitute of International Relations Conference Room

The University of the West IndiesSt. Augustine

March 5th 2013

Discussion Points• Why do a Population Census?

• Census as a statistical exercise

– Statistics as a science for determining the magnitude of unknown counts, other descriptive measures and patterns of relationship

– Never Accurate but focus is on precision

– Methodological rigour and invoking critical sensibilities

• Discussing emergent population trends– Population Growth– Sex Composition– Ethnicity– Religious Affiliation

Census Year

Duration of the intercensal period

(in years)

Trinidad & Tobago

Population

Change % Change Exponential Growth Rate

1851 x 82978 x x x

1861 10.0 99848 16870 20.3 1.9

1871 10.0 126692 26844 26.9 2.4

1881 10.0 171179 44487 35.1 3.0

1891 10.0 218381 47202 27.6 2.4

1901 10.0 273899 55518 25.4 2.3

1911 9.9 333552 59653 21.8 2.0

1921 10.1 365913 32361 9.7 0.9

1931 10.0 412783 46870 12.8 1.2

1946 15.0 557970 145187 35.2 2.0

1960 14.0 827957 269987 48.4 2.8

1970 10.0 931071 103114 12.5 1.2

1980 10.1 1079791 148720 16.0 1.5

1990 10.0 1213733 133942 12.4 1.2

2000 10.1 1262366 48633 4.0 0.4

2011 10.6 1328019 65653 5.2 0.5

           

Assumptions8 June2000

8 June 2001

8 June 2005

8 June 2010

8 June 2015

8 June 2020

8 June 2025

High 1262366 1267866 1285718 1312259 1347174 1379331 1398947

Constant 1262366 1264613 1266147 1260585 1247294 1219573 1174665

Low 1262366 1264613 1266707 1258745 1237531 1198894 1143457

Medium 1262366 1264610 1268439 1268642 1265430 1252654 1228675

Medium-High

1262366 1267866 1284652 1300288 1310888 1309589 1294347

Medium-Medium

1262366 1267866 1284303 1298648 1306920 1302196 1282384

Medium-Low

1262366 1264613 1266468 1259377 1243051 1211067 1161638

Projected Population Characteristics: Trinidad and Tobago, Selected Census Years

Ethnic GroupPopulation

Size 2011

Percentage Distribution

2011Proportion

<15Proportion

65+Aging Index

           

 Trinidad and Tobago     20.6 9 44

           

African 452536 34.2 19.6 10.2 52

Caucasian 7832 0.6 12 21 175

Chinese 4003 0.3 12.1 21 174

East Indian 468524 35.4 16.5 8.5 52

Indigenous 1394 0.1 14.3 14.6 102

Mixed 301866 22.8 29.1 7.1 24

Portuguese 837 0.1 4.9 32.5 663

Syrian/Lebanese 1029 0.1 12.6 17.4 73

Other 2280 0.2 17.6 12.8 73

Not Stated 82246 6.2 20.3 8 39

  Sex Ratio

  2011 2000 1990 1980

Trinidad & Tobago   

All Ages 100.7 100.6 99.8 99.9

0 - 4 103.4 102.7 101.8 103.1

5 - 9 103.2 102.6 101.8 102.2

10 - 14 104.5 102.1 102.5 100.4

15 - 19 102.1 101.6 103.7 100.9

20 - 24 101.0 103.2 100.1 101.3

25 - 29 101.7 102.7 100.4 100.6

30 - 34 104.3 99.9 99.4 102.6

35 - 39 102.6 100.1 100.5 99.8

40 - 44 101.9 101.3 102.5 99.6

45 - 49 102.6 103.4 98.8 95.5

50 - 54 101.8 104.5 98.2 97.2

55 - 59 100.6 99.8 95.3 105.0

60 - 64 102.2 96.3 96.0 105.4

65 - 69 93.6 91.7 93.0 88.5

70 - 74 88.4 90.4 93.9 86.3

75 - 79 81.0 87.6 84.8 74.4

80 + 67.2 71.6 62.9 58.7

Country/Region 

Population Size2000

Population Size

2011

Intercensal Growth

2000-2010

Percent 65+ 2011

Census

Trinidad and Tobago 1262366 1328019 5.2 9

City of Port of Spain 49031 37074 -24.4 14.8

City of San Fernando 55419 48838 -11.9 12.2

Borough of Arima 32278 33606 4.1 9.8

Borough of Chaguanas 67433 83516 23.9 6.8

Borough of Point Fortin 19056 20235 6.2 8.9

Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo 162779 178410 9.6 7.3

Diego Martin 105720 102957 -2.6 12.3

Mayaro/Rio Claro 32143 35650 10.9 7.4

Penal/Debe 83609 89392 6.9 8.1

Princes Town 91947 102375 11.3 7.9

San Juan/Laventille 157295 157258 0.0 9.4

Sangre Grande 65680 75766 15.4 7.7

Siparia 81917 86949 6.1 9.2

Tunapuna/Piarco 203975 215119 5.5 8.7

Tobago 54084 60874 12.6 9.3

Year Number of Live Births

1940 16,535

1955 21,616

1950 23,722

1955 30,216

1960 32,858

Number of Live Births Trinidad and TobagoPre-Independence Era

Year Number of Live Births

1962 34,1071965 31,9531970 25,1511975 25,6731980 29,8691985 33,7191990 23,9601995 19,2582000 18,1602005 18,0902008 19,888

Number of Live Births Trinidad and TobagoPre-Independence Era

Year Total Fertility Rate1959-1961 5.11969-1971 3.82008 1.6

Total Fertility Rates – Trinidad and Tobago1959-1961, 1969-1971 and 2008

Females 15-49 years – Percentage Childless by Five-Year Age Group and Years of Schooling

Age Group All Females Under 7 years 7-12 years 12 or more years

15-49 years 47.6 31.0 44.0 53.5

15-19 years 93.5 93.3 93.2 94.9

20-24 years 70.4 47.8 69.3 81.4

25-29 years 46.0 28.6 37.7 61.6

30-34 years 29.3 26.0 28.8 32.5

35-39 years 20.4 18.8 17.1 27.2

40-44 years 15.2 11.0 15.6 19.6

45-49 years 12.8 4.9 9.6 22.6

Females 15-49 years – Percentage Childless by Five-Year Age Group and Socio-Economic Status

Age Group

All Females

QuintileI

Quintile II

Quintile III

Quintile IV

QuintileV

15-49 yrs 47.6 41.7 40.5 43.2 45.0 51.2

15-19 yrs 93.5 92.2 94.1 95.5 91.8 94.1

20-24 yrs 70.4 58.2 65.5 72.0 79.5 80.0

25-29 yrs 46.0 35.6 38.3 41.0 48.4 67.9

30-34 yrs 29.3 23.2 24.7 22.2 33.3 43.7

35-39 yrs 20.4 6.7 13.0 22.5 26.5 31.5

40-44 yrs 15.2 5.1 12.7 13.4 15.4 29.0

45-49 yrs 12.8 4.3 3.5 10.0 10.4 21.4

Females 15-49 years – Percentage Ever Having at Least 5 Live Born Children by Five-Year Age Group and Years of Schooling

Age Group All Females Under 7 years 7-12 years 12 or more years

15-49 years 3.1 6.6 3.0 2.4

15-19 years 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.7

20-24 years 0.7 - 1.3 0.4

25-29 years 1.0 3.1 0.8 0.4

30-34 years 2.2 4.0 2.6 0.6

35-39 years 5.5 11.6 3.6 4.3

40-44 years 7.6 10.4 6.2 8.0

45-49 years 8.8 11.7 7.2 5.1

Females 15-49 years – Percentage Ever Having at least 5 Live Born Children by Five-Year Age Group and Socio-Economic

Status

Age Group

All Females

QuintileI

Quintile II

Quintile III

Quintile IV

QuintileV

15-49 yrs 3.1 7.3 3.8 2.9 1.8 1.9

15-19 yrs 1.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.6 2.0

20-24 yrs 0.7 - 2.0 - - 1.7

25-29 yrs 1.0 - 1.4 0.9 2.4 -

30-34 yrs 2.2 5.2 2.2 3.7 - -

35-39 yrs 5.5 18.1 2.0 4.2 0.9 2.7

40-44 yrs 7.6 19.0 9.3 5.0 2.4 4.7

45-49 yrs 8.8 22.9 11.8 7.0 3.8 2.1

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