2011 uk ooh market review

A Kinetic Investment Report

2011

UK OOH market review

UK OOH market review 2011

introduction 03 section one 96 sheets 04 section two 48 sheets 14 section three 6 sheets 24 section four Bus T-sides 34

contents

02

kineticww.com 03

introduction

2011 saw Out of Home revenues grow by1.4% amidst a tough economic climate. Media owner investment ensures the industry is well placed going into the next few years, with digital OOH also now firmly established within the medium.

This document focuses on the dynamics within traditional OOH formats, covering 6 sheets, 48s, 96s and Bus T-sides. These formats account for 70% of Out of Home revenue and continue to be the lifeblood of the industry.

Trends in occupancy and lead time were broadly encouraging with some formats breaking six-year highs against these measures.

As we enter a landmark 2012 - truly a year of opportunity for Out of Home - this report gives us a deep understanding of OOH trends by format, highlighting cyclical expectation by format and assessing the medium term trends that dictate demand, supply and therefore value in OOH.

Kinetic Investment, January 2012

04

section one

96 sheets

section one UK OOH market review 2011

There was a great return to occupancy levels for this format the previous year in 2010, with an increase of 9% over 2009 and lead times were up 56%. 2011 saw stability reign and the year ended on a high.

Quarter 1

Q1 2011 had both positives and negatives for the 96 sheet market. The average lead time dropped by 1.5 weeks, a sign that the market traded within the shorter term. However, it ended on a par with the six-year average.

The positives also came from occupancy levels increasing 10%, a return to 2008 levels. 2011 saw 96 sheets finally move back 3.4% above the six-year average.

96 sheets

06

Occupancy Quarter 1

Lead Times Quarter 1 (weeks)

Source: Kinetic Academy – Indicator kineticww.com

The positives came from occupancy levels increasing 10%, a return to 2008 levels.“Quarter 2

Lead times dropped by 1.5 weeks on average to incharge, but fortunately not back to 2009 levels.

Occupancy was also down for 96s in Q2, by 19% year on year, sitting just below the six-year average of 65%.

Overall the quarter showed that advertisers were looking for value within the short term market.

07

Occupancy Quarter 2


”


H1 2011

What looked like being a strong half year eventually ended disappointingly. Occupancy hit the market hard in Q2, but lead times were stable.

• May and June generally dragged the average down

• Occupancy ended at an average of 64%, however if we exclude May and June, this would have been 70%

• Lead times were fairly flat trading from one month to the next regardless of occupancy, ranging between 5 – 6 weeks before incharge

• The lead time average dropped by 1.5 weeks compared to 2010.

• February and April were very successful months

• Occupancy across these two months was the highest across the half year period, though lead times remained fairly short to incharge

• The overall six-month lead time average was 5.3 weeks before incharge

• The 96 sheet market traded a lot closer to incharge than recent years across this period

Overall, this format can move quickly. We advise using Kinetic forecasts to ascertain when the market is likely to move in a selected period to ensure advertisers are aware of likely demand. In weaker periods, incentives can be offered to help ignite the market.

96 sheets

08

Occupancy H1

Lead Times H1 (weeks)

1/2 Year Average 64%

1/2 Year Average 5.3


The volatile nature of this format combined with the Olympics will likely find occupancy around 80% in Q3 2012.“

09

Quarter 3

Occupancy flattened out at around 65% for the quarter. The volatile nature of this format combined with the Olympics will likely find this format finishing around the 80% mark in Q3 2012.

Lead times dropped, but against 2010’s record performance. An average of seven weeks for the quarter is actually pretty modest looking back across the previous six years.

Occupancy Quarter 3


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Quarter 4

Another drop in occupancy in Q4, but only to 69%. The quarter tends to be unpredictable and relies heavily on film advertisers to help sustain occupancy levels. Other categories are urgently required to pick up the void across this quarter to get back to the levels recorded in 2009.

Lead times improved for a fourth year, increasing by half a week year on year.

It is becoming apparent that advertisers are committing early across the period to ensure delivery; the short term market lacks any impact, a focus for the industry in 2012.

96 sheets

10

Occupancy Quarter 4



It is becoming apparent that advertisers are committing early across Q4 to ensure delivery.“

11

H2 2011

Looking across the half year period by month it is very much the same as H1, with contrasting occupancy levels from one month to the next. With the exception of September, lead times remained high across the six months, but this can be a volatile format within OOH.

• No change really as the 96 sheet format continued along in capricious fashion, as in previous years

• October carried the half year average contributing well at 43% above the half year average

• Both Sept and December registered low occupancy

• Overall occupancy for H2 2011 ended down 10% at 66%

• Lead times as expected with this format were slightly erratic, despite hitting some impressive highs

• December boasted the highest lead time but also the lowest occupancy.

• Overall lead time for the second six months was 8 weeks, no change on 2010 but still sitting 3-4 days above the six-year average for the period

Occupancy finished 9% below the six year average. In terms of overall appeal, this format needs to be repositioned within the market to reinforce the benefits – not least in bringing 6 sheets, bus and 48 sheets to life - and attract earlier advertiser commitment.

Occupancy H2

Lead Times H2 (weeks)



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Full Year Conclusion

Occupancy across the whole of 2011 dropped 8% on the record breaking 2010 year average, but – at 65% - achieved a similar level to that of 2008 and 2009. The growth achieved across 2010 and into 2011 was scuppered in Q2, a period that does not traditionally perform well.

As the year progressed this format gathered some real momentum and lead times hit record highs at the tail end of Q3 and Q4. The final 2011 96 sheet lead time ended at 6.6 weeks on average before incharge. This is a decrease of 1.5 weeks on 2010, yet still above the six-year average by just under half a week to incharge.

96 sheets

12

Occupancy Full Year Conclusion

Lead Times Full Year Conclusion (weeks)

Full Year Average 65%

Full Year Average 6.6


96s have a place in this market as the additional impact builder, alongside 6s, 48s and bus to add additional presence and impact to campaigns.“

13

6 Year Average

Even though the occupancy figures decreased year on year it isn’t as bad as it may sound for the format. 2010 achieved unprecedented growth on 2009, so to achieve the same level was going to be a tall order.

Lead times, in the same way as occupancy, saw a year on year drop of 1.3 weeks but an average of 6.6 weeks before incharge was impressive in the context of the last six years.

Occupancy 6 Year Average

Lead Times 6 Year Average (weeks)

Thoughts for 2012

The product has a place in this market as the additional impact builder, as the film industry, veterans of OOH, uses this format alongside 6s, 48s and bus to add additional presence and impact to campaigns.

6 Year Average 69%

6 Year Average 6.4

This should be the focus in 2012, where the format can expect to capitalise on strong likely demand, particularly across Q2 and Q3.

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48 sheetssection two

14

section two UK OOH market review 2011

Lead time and occupancy records were broken across 2010 for what ended up a heavily demanded format. Occupancy and lead times in 2011 ended above expectation.

Quarter 1

48 sheets had a stable first quarter. Despite slight falls in occupancy and lead times, occupancy figures ended in the 80s and the overall average is rising and now stands at 81%.

Though Q1’s average lead time did drop it still slots in as the 2nd highest since 2006 and sits above the six year average by around one extra day.

48 sheets

16

Occupancy Quarter 1



Lead times decreased, dropping by over 1.5 weeks on average, though still sitting above the overall six year average by half a week.“Quarter 2

Q2 2011 occupancy dropped 11% year on year, ending very close to 2009 levels, but 9% below the six-year average. The quarter impacted across most formats.

Lead times also decreased, dropping by over 1.5 weeks on average, though still sitting above the overall six year average by half a week. With Lead times holding above average levels and occupancy dropping this is a sure sign the market failed to close out within the short term window.

17

Occupancy Quarter 2


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H1 2011

The 48 sheet market dropped off the pace across the first half of the year.

• Across the first six months of 2011 occupancy was rather erratic; no month traded near the six-month average, it was either one way or the other

• Lead times were very reflective of the demand present in the market with the exception of June

• Demanded months traded early, but there seemed to be little short term business coming into the market

• Both lead times and occupancy dropped in May

• The overall six-month lead average was 6.3 weeks before incharge

• This represents one week less on average compared to the same period last year, but lead times did remain just over half a week higher than the six-year average

We witnessed a repetitive trend across the first half of the year; Lead times were slightly behind 2010 average but the monthly fluctuation seems to be very much the same. Occupancy was a little off the 2010 pace but still held to a respectable level.

48 sheets

18

Occupancy H1 2011

Lead Times H1 2011 (weeks)




Q3 was the best quarter for 48 sheets hands down...a heavily demanded period.“

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Quarter 3

The best quarter for 48 sheets hands down! Occupancy rose with the market selling nearly 400 x additional 48 sheets per burst and almost hitting the 2006 average, that’s a great climb seeing as the past four years have settled around the 75% mark.

Lead times dropped slightly but only by half a week, and still delivering around the 8 week mark on average.

Overall a heavily demanded period; occupancy was very healthy and lead times held firm across what could have been a tough trading period.

Occupancy Quarter 3


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Quarter 4

A pretty consistent pattern has begun to emerge looking back across the last three years. Sustained occupancy levels rose 3% compared to 2010 and put this format in a healthy position for the quarter.

Lead times dropped on average by half a week compared to the same period in 2010. This was however the second best lead time across the last six years.

48 sheets

20

Occupancy Quarter 4



A pretty consistent pattern has begun to emerge looking back across the last three years.“

21

H2 2011

A strong half building on the previous year. Q3 almost returned to 2006 levels and Q4 took the number three spot looking back across the last six years for each quarter respectively. Lead times across both quarters took a minimal drop.

• July (+15%), Sept (+9%) and Nov (+14%) are the three main reasons for the 11% increase on the six month average compared to 2010

• December occupancy ended at 56% which is a third below the six-month average and was the main month holding the overall average back

• H2 occupancy was at an average of 85%, 8% above the six-year average

• Very consistent and long lead times across the six months, ranging from 7.5 – 8.5 weeks

• July was a highly demanded month and recorded the joint highest lead time for the half year, averaging out at 8.5 weeks for the incharge. With the high occupancy level of 98% this was the best recorded month in OOH across 2011.

• As usual December registers the lowest occupancy, however the majority of the voidage sits in the final incharge, highlighting the high lead time which is mainly recorded in the Christmas run-up period

• July – November all delivered consistently over 80% occupancy with only August dropping slightly below the six month average.

• The overall six-month lead time average is 8 weeks before incharge

In summary, when buying into the 48 sheet market across H2, booking early is paramount or clients will likely miss out. The main focus for media owners should be the late December period as this continuously attracts high voidage.

Occupancy H2 2011




”



Compared to the last six years, the average occupancy looked very positive. The final 2011 48 sheet occupancy figure moved into the 80% bracket for the first time in eight years.

This represented an increase of 1.5% on 2010 and a 3% increase on the last six year average. Overall Q2, especially May and June, deflated the format’s final outcome; otherwise this would have been a record breaking year. Changes to the May incharge dates did not, on reflection, serve the industry well.

A good year for lead times on 48 sheets. Despite a slow start, lead times built through the year and delivered above-average figures across the final six months. The final 2011 48 sheet lead time figure stands at 7.2 weeks on average from incharge, half a week above the last six-year average.

48 sheets

22






48 sheets are the coverage-achieving, brand-building powerhouse for Out of Home and there is an opportunity to find new advertisers and categories that want to stand out.“

23

6 Year Average

Building on the success of 2010, the 48 sheet market in 2011 continued to move forward. High occupancy levels were delivered and the six-year average now stands at 78% with its sights set on 80% and staying there.

Lead times were down slightly, but with occupancy up and with more advertisers in the market buying more panels, 2011 was a good year for the format.



Thoughts for 2012

Consistency and momentum is what is needed across 2012. We have seen continued growth with occupancy and this has to be the main area of concentration for the year ahead.

6 Year Average 78%

6 Year Average 6.7

”

48 sheets are the coverage-achieving, brand-building powerhouse for Out of Home and there is an opportunity to find new advertisers and categories that want to stand out, to build this market up as the existing portfolio of advertisers will likely return.

6 sheetssection three

24

section three UK OOH market review 2011

2010 6 sheet occupancy was very healthy, recording all time highs, whilst the final 2010 lead time average was at its highest in five years. The format went from strength to strength in 2011, trending upwards in both occupancy and lead time as the year progressed.

Quarter 1

Q1 2011 saw the occupancy record broken again. Albeit only by a percentage point, but an increase pushing the six-year average upwards and the quarter finished 9% up.

Lead times also increased, shifting the average for Q1 by a half a week across the quarter. The quarter surpassed the six-year average by well over an extra week.

6 sheets

26

Occupancy Quarter 1



Q1 saw the occupancy record broken again… lead times also increased.

Quarter 2

Traditionally, the momentum from Q1 tails off in Q2, but 2011 bucked this trend and occupancy increased by 15% year on year sitting 19% above the six-year Q2 average.

Lead times held to similar levels with the preceding two years in a strong result for the format.

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Occupancy Quarter 2


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H1 2011

6 sheets sold well by quarter across H1 with occupancy up 5% and overall performance as good as anything since before 2005.

• Occupancy steadily grew across the first six months with only May letting the average slip.

• Monthly occupancy almost mirrored that of 2010; however June saw a complete format turnaround delivering high occupancy compared to the previous year

• While May was the lowest performing month its final figure of 77% was still a positive result compared with previous years

• The six month average lead time for the format was 5.9 weeks from incharge, the highest result in six years

• Lead times increased on average by one extra week compared to 2010 or 1.5 additional weeks compared to the 6 year average

• May carried the lowest occupancy however the lead time was still healthy; a missed opportunity for the short term deal-hunting clients

Demand was certainly evident and occupancy levels were up on the six-year average. However, while selling early is good for the medium, incentives around short term availability need to be offered earlier to encourage advertisers to come into the market.

There were a lot of positives to be drawn from H1. In the past, 6 sheets have delivered steady levels across the year with the first quarter normally setting the pace.

6 sheets

28

Occupancy H1 2011





There were a lot of positives to be drawn from H1, while Q3 delivered occupancy growth for the third year running and moved into the 90% bracket for the first time since 2007.

29

Quarter 3

Q3 delivered occupancy growth for the third year running and moved into the 90% bracket for the first time since 2007, breaking occupancy records for the format dating back over ten years.

Amidst growth, lead times dropped, though just by half a week.

Occupancy Quarter 3


“”


Quarter 4

6 sheets finished with near perfect occupancy, Q4 coming in at 96%, a yearly increase of 12%, sitting 14% above the six-year average.

With occupancy increasing by more than 10%, again the lead time decrease was minimal, only by a few days. Lead times delivered an overall average of more than seven weeks from incharge across the quarter. This was the strongest performing Q4 for ten years.

6 sheets

30

Occupancy Quarter 4



6 sheets finished with near perfect occupancy, Q4 coming in at 96%...the strongest performing Q4 for ten years.

31

H2 2011

Both quarters delivering occupancy levels in excess of 90% had not been experienced before.

• The H2 average ended with an occupancy level of 94%, an increase of 10% on 2010 and 11% higher than the six-year average

• Historically, H2 tends to deliver sustained occupancy levels across the period and 2011 didn’t disappoint

• All months delivered at least 90% occupancy

• The lead time stretch this year was significantly narrower ranging between just 6 – 8.5 weeks

• July, while still delivering high occupancy, sold the closet to incharge as the recorded lead time of 6 weeks was the lowest for the period; although a high percentage would have still sold during the optimum booking period.

• The format sold across all three major booking windows consistently each month. Short term bookings were apparent with media owners able to close out the market, with the majority of bookings (approx. 70%) falling within the optimum booking window and the final make up being early booking/repeat format buyers.

• The overall average lead time for H2 2011 fell by under one week on average to register at 7.1 weeks from incharge.

6 sheets delivered to an exceptionally high level without stumbling at all. To move average occupancy from 86% to 94% reflects well on the format.

The main positive was the narrowing of average lead times, proving consistent demand. Short term bookings were still prevalent when the market allowed.

Occupancy H2 2011




“”



A great year for this format, breaking the 90% bracket for the first time in over a decade and ending at a 91% average for the year.

The year witnessed high demand, with most months (except May) performing close to the average occupancy.

As trend would predict, a slow start to the lead times for the market which built momentum as we passed through the year.

As normal, January and February recorded the lowest lead times. The unfortunate drop in May - again down to the incharge date change - obviously created the challenge of selling the month mainly across the short term market.

Overall the average for the year finished half a week up on 2010, settling at 6.5 weeks from incharge on average.

6 sheets

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The media owners held low an acceptable level of year-on-year inflation… a similar pricing strategy should ensure another strong performance in 2012.

33

6 Year Average

A record breaking year for 6 sheets, with occupancy growth of 8% against 2010 average and 12% higher than the six-year average.

Overall lead times remained stable at 5.7 weeks.


Lead Times 6 Year Average

Thoughts for 2012

With the flexibility and capability to target desired audiences across the country, the media owners held low an acceptable level of year-on-year inflation increases, which the market was able to

6 Year Average 81%

6 Year Average 5.7

sustain. A similar pricing strategy should ensure another strong performance in 2012.

“”

Bus T-sidessection four

34

section four UK OOH market review 2011

Previously, demand for this format increased both occupancy and lead times across 2010, the main driver behind this being the introduction of annual multi-burst lay downs. 2011 saw a combination of low level occupancy and virtual sell out.

Quarter 1

T-side occupancy held firm at around 70% mark, a reasonable showing given the success of 6 sheets and as a comparison to 2008-9, though tracking down 5% on 2010. Compared to the six-year average, Q1 2011 tracked ahead by 6%.

A good sign is the positive return to lead times, an increase by two thirds of a week on 2010 figures, though still falling behind the six-year average by half a week.

Bus T-sides

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Occupancy Quarter 1



A good sign is the positive return to lead times, an increase by two thirds of a week on the 2010 figure.“Quarter 2

Very akin to Q1 2011, this period held the pattern of the previous year. A slight upturn in occupancy with an increase of 8% and a fairly flat lead time year on year.

The six-year Q2 average occupancy sits at 65% and the lead time average is 7.4 weeks, so Q2 2011perfromance very much reflected these numbers – a very consistent period for the format.

37

Occupancy Quarter 2


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H1 2011

We often see two contrasting quarters delivered across H1, however, this year saw the occupancy gap slowly closing with a flatter average being found across the full period. Overall trends were flat/stable, yet with strong periodic spikes in both occupancy and lead time.

• Overall, February and April really pulled the average occupancy up

• As in 2010, April was the busiest month, almost hitting 90% occupancy and delivering 27% above the six-month average

• May delivered the lowest occupancy across the half year at 54%; a fifth below the half year average

• Lead times increased strongly across May and June

In reality, the first six months for the T-side market was very volatile. The final average for the period was similar to the previous year, ending 2% below 2010 but 3% above the six-year average.

Lead times for H1 2011increased by an additional half a week across the six months, but tracking behind the six-month average by a couple of days.

May and June really helped maintain the market. However, bus suffered through a lack of short term advertisers in various incharges, leaving a high lead time. Historical data proves that high lead time doesn’t necessarily mean high occupancy.

Bus T-sides

38

Occupancy H1 2011





This year saw the occupancy gap slowly closing across the first two quarters with a flatter average being found.“Quarter 3

Q3 saw a slight drop on 2010. The national/urban market sold well and this makes up the majority of the occupancy levels. London T-sides pulled the average down.

Lead times were very healthy with advertisers committing on average a whole week earlier than in 2010 and delivered double-digit lead times. If you want T-sides in 2012 Q3, the advice is get ready to book extremely early. The Olympic effect has already made this market highly demanded in 2012.

39

Occupancy Quarter 3

Lead Times Quarter 3

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Quarter 4

Bus tends to fare well across this quarter, but 2011 saw a 26% rise in occupancy, a record high 94%.

Looking back across the past six years, the occupancy levels fluctuate slightly around the mid 60s to mid 70s. With the inclusion of the 2011 figure, the average radically increased and sat 25% above this line. This was a remarkable period for the T-side market.

Despite high occupancy, T-side lead times only dropped by one week on average to 9.3 weeks from incharge – still a strong and manageable figure.

Bus T-sides

40

Occupancy Quarter 4



We anticipate a 16+ week booking recommendation for Q4 2012.“H2 2011

The main highlight across H2 is the occupancy levels achieved, especially in Q4. There is a clear demand for this format across the period and judging by the lead time, when advertisers choose bus they commit up front and annually to ensure they are not disappointed.

Occupancy seemed to start slowly across the summer months building to unprecedented highs and recording the best occupancy average for H2 in recent years. Lead times were fairly stable with only a slight wobble in November.

• The H2 average ended at 83%, a 10% increase on 2010 and up 11% on the six year average

• Occupancy was consistently in the 90%+ bracket across the whole of Q4

• Lead times almost tracked in line with occupancy

• The H2 average ended at 10 weeks from incharge, down half a week on average but still over a week above the average six-year lead time

• Even more impressive is the 5-week increase on H2 2009, almost double the average lead time for the same period year on year.

We anticipate a 16+ week booking recommendation for Q4 2012.

41

Occupancy H2 2011




”



2011 saw either low level occupancy or virtual sell-out. T-sides sold well in the six-year context, with the strong Q4 performance worth noting.

The market started down, but built through the year to above-average highs. T-sides were certainly in demand across the latter half of the year with advertisers willing to commit much earlier than the average.

Overall the average lead time were very similar to 2010, finishing at 8.1 weeks from incharge.

Bus T-sides

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The T-side market is in a very healthy state entering 2012...early booking incentives will continue, potentially pushing occupancy and lead times... 2012 demand will be extremely high.“6 Year Average

So the T-side market successfully moved forward with occupancy growing 4% on 2010. The final 2011 occupancy of 76% sits 7% above the six-year average. The T-side market is in a very healthy state entering 2012.

Lead times on average have remained flat, standing at 8.1 weeks from incharge, the highest of the four formats analysed in this report. Still, we are expecting an improved performance across H1 2012 to really boost what could be a buoyant market for the format in the year ahead.

43

Thoughts for 2012

T-sides find themselves in a strong position. Early booking incentives will continue, potentially pushing occupancy and lead times, particularly in H1. Demand will generally be extremely high in this format.


6 Year Average 71%

6 Year Average 7.7


”

kinetic121-141 Westbourne TerraceLondon W2 6JR

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www.kineticww.com

a kinetic investment report

2011 uk ooh market review

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