2011 world population data sheet presentation

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

2011 World Population Data Sheet

The World Adding Another Billion People Every 12 Years PRESENTATION BY CARL HAUB, JAMES GRIBBLE, AND LINDA JACOBSEN OF THE POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

JULY 2011

© 2011 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

CARL HAUB Senior Visiting Scholar Co-author of the 2011 World Population Data Sheet and Population Bulletin: “The World at 7 Billion”


The world is adding another billion people every 12 years.

First

Second

Third

Fourth

Fifth

Sixth

Seventh

Eighth

All of human history ca. 1800

130 years (1930)

30 years (1960)

14 years (1974)

13 years (1987)

12 years (1999)

12 years (2011)

12 years (2023) ?

Sources: United Nations Population Division and Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections.


Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant).

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

Billions

Virtually all population growth is in the world’s poorest countries.


300 200 100 00 100 200 300

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Female

Fewer young people in developed countries ensures little population growth or even population decline.

Age

Millions

Male



300 200 100 00 100 200 300

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Female

Large numbers of young people in developing countries guarantee large population growth. Age

Millions

Male



In quite a few developing countries, fertility decline has been rather smooth.

Sources: United Nations Population Division; U.S. National Center for Health Statistics; and Demographic and Health Surveys.

Lifetime births per woman

Tunisia

Brazil

Dom. Rep.

Thailand


Lifetime children per woman

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Gray circles indicate a census estimate

Future fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is quite doubtful, based on the results of recent surveys.

Circles indicate survey years

Niger

Ghana

Zambia

Nigeria


Lifetime children per woman

Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys and various surveys in Pakistan.

Slow or little fertility decline is not confined to sub-Saharan Africa.

Circles indicate survey years

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Pakistan

Indonesia

Jordan Egypt


2.6

3.9 3.8

3.3 3.0

2.5 2.5 2.4

2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7

TFRs in India vary widely by state.

Source: Sample Registration System, data from 2008.


1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

In many developed countries, fertility has fallen to historically low levels, while in others, the TFR has returned to 2 children per woman.

Sources: Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, various issues; U.S. National Center for Health Statistics; and national statistical offices.

Children per woman

U.S.

Sweden

Italy

Germany


Congo, Dem. Rep. Italy Population 2011 68 million 61 million

Population 2050 149 million 62 million

Lifetime Births per Woman 6.1 1.4

Annual Number of Births 3,050,000 560,000

Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 111 3.7

Annual Number of Infant Deaths 340,000 2,100

Life Expectancy at Birth 49 81

Population Below Age 15 46% 14%

Population Age 65+ 3% 20%

Population Living <$US2/Day 80 n.a.

The Demographic Divide: Example of DRC and Italy.

Source: Carl Haub and Toshiko Kaneda, 2011 World Population Data Sheet.


5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Female

Age

Percent

Male

Source: Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Statistical Yearbook, 2010 (2009 data).

Small numbers of young people in many developed countries have all but guaranteed fewer future births.

Germany, by age and sex


JAMES GRIBBLE Vice President of International Programs Co-author of the Population Bulletin: “The World at 7 Billion”


The 4 Phases of Demographic Transition

Phase 1: High birth rates and fluctuating death rates (TFR 5+)

Phase 2: Declining birth and death rates (TFR 3.5 to 5)

Phase 3: Approaching replacement fertility (TFR 2 to 3.5)

Phase 4: Low/very low birth and death rates (TFR below 2)

Phase

4 46% 3

38%

2 7%

1 9%


Africa: High death rates, but higher birth rates.

0

5

10

15

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate


Asia & Oceania: Lower birth and death rates, and some increasing death rates.

0

5

10

15

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Crude birth rate

Crude death rate


Americas: Birth rates are low, and still exceed death rates.

0

5

10

15

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate


Europe: Death rates exceed the very low birth rates in some countries.

0

5

10

15

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate


0

5

10

15

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate

Europe: Death rates exceed the very low birth rates in some countries.


0

5

10

15

20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Natural increase occurs when births exceed deaths.

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate


Demographic transition across the world’s continents.

-10-505

10152025303540

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Rate of Natural Increase

Children per Woman

4 3 2 1


Many African countries are in Phase 1. Consider Uganda…

-10-505

10152025303540

0 2 4 6 8


Children per Woman

4 3 2 1


Uganda

35 million people Growing at 3.3% per year Half the population is age

15 or younger 6+ children per woman

Contraceptive use: 18% Life expectancy: 54 years Nutritional challenges Public expenditures on

health: US$7 per person Photo: © 2007 Frances Y. Cheng, Courtesy of Photoshare


Guatemala is the only Phase 2 country in the Americas.

-10-505

10152025303540

0 2 4 6 8


Children per Woman

4 3 2 1


Guatemala

14 million people Growing at 2.5% per year Half of population is 19 years

or younger 3.6 children per woman

Contraceptive use: 34% Life expectancy: 71 years Mayan population faces

many inequities Public expenditures on

health: US$52 per person

Photo: © 2001 Virginia Lamprecht, Courtesy of Photoshare


Most Asian countries are in Phase 3 or 4. Consider India…

-10-505

10152025303540

0 2 4 6 8


Children per Woman

4 3 2 1


India

1.2 billion people Growing at 1.3% per year Half of population is age

25 or younger 2.7 children per woman

Contraceptive use: 49% Life expectancy: 64 years 76% living on <US$2/day Public expenditures on

health: US$7 per person

Photo: © 2009 Rajal Thaker, Courtesy of Photoshare


Most European countries are in Phase 4. Germany has negative growth.

-10-505

10152025303540

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8


Children per Woman

4 3 2 1


Germany

21% of population is over age 65

1.4 children per woman Contraceptive use: 66% Life expectancy: 80 years

Photo: © 2004 David Lederman, Courtesy of Photoshare

82 million people Growing at –0.2% per year Projected 2025 population

is 79 million Half the population is age

44 or younger


The World at 7 Billion

Slowing fertility

Longer, healthier lives

Improving inequities


LINDA JACOBSEN Vice President of Domestic Programs


U.S. population growth exceeds growth in most of Europe. Percent Change in Population, 2000 to 2010

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses; and United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM edition (2011).

9.7

1.6

14.4

6.3 6.3 5.4 4.7

-0.1 -0.1 -2.6 -3.2

-7 -10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

The U.S. is still growing rapidly, but the pace is projected to slow down.

To 100 million

To 200 million

To 300 million

To 400 million(projected)

124 years (1914)

54 years (1968)

38 years (2006)

33 years (2039)

1790 population: 3.9 million


Natural increase accounts for more than 60% of population growth in the United States.


76% 68% 64%

24% 32% 36%

1980-89 1990-99 2000-09

Natural Increase Net Immigration


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

1

2

3

4

2009199919891979196919591949193919291919

Percent foreign-born

Average births per woman

Fertility rates have leveled off in the U.S., but the foreign-born population has increased.

Sources: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics; and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey.

Average births per woman, 1917-2009 Percent foreign-born, 1920-2009



Population Change (in thousands), 2008-2009

Natural increase and net immigration vary across racial and ethnic groups in the U.S.

2,190

1,101

661

194

1,984

127 303

48 120

464

79 202

White non-Hispanic

Hispanic Black Asian

Births Deaths Net Immigration


The non-Hispanic white population is aging rapidly as the baby boomers reach retirement age.


Population by Age and Sex, U.S. White Alone, not Hispanic or Latino: 2009

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Age

Male Female

Percent


The Hispanic population has a younger age structure primarily because of higher fertility.


Population by Age and Sex, U.S. Hispanic or Latino: 2009

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+ Male Age

Female Age

Percent

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

2011 World Population Data Sheet

The World Adding Another Billion People Every 12 Years PRESENTATION BY CARL HAUB, JAMES GRIBBLE, AND LINDA JACOBSEN OF THE POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

JULY 2011


Carl Haub Senior Visiting Scholar

James Gribble Vice President of International Programs

Linda Jacobsen Vice President of Domestic Programs

2011 world population data sheet presentation

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